Meyers Leonard's NBA Draft Stock
 

Most sites have Anthony Davis and Drummond as 1/2, but I believe that Meyers (if he keeps progressing) has a chance to be number 1. Drummond has the toughness and is a big, athletic, defensive type player that could be dominant. Anthony Davis has the talent to be dominant, but I don't know about the toughness (he kind of reminds me of Marcus Camby anyway; good player and a little more talent).

Jeremy Lamb and Brad Beal are great shooting guards prospects. Tim Hardaway Jr. will be a sleeper in the draft. Terrance Ross is a freak athlete and is starting to learn to shoot, but is still pretty raw (a sleeper too though).

Quincy Miller and Perry Jones are good, but I don't know if they are dominant. John Henson will be good defensively and will be a game changer there, but he must continue to develop offensively and it will take a couple of years before he is strong enough to do so at the 4 spot.

Jared Sullinger will make the pros, but I don't see him being a star. Harrison Barnes has a chance to be good, but I don't know about a chance to be dominant (although he has the work ethic).

Overall, Meyers still has a lot of work to do (being consistent, learning to play low consistently, playing D without baiting on ball fakes, dominating the glass with his ability, getting lower position, not giving up if switched and getting blown by the offensive player, and most importantly, emotional maturity). Stating all this, I don't see any other player in this draft that has the two-way talent he has. Defensively, he has made tremendous improvements on not fouling as much and blocking (it is getting better in terms of keeping it in bounds). Offensively, he can run like a deer, sets good picks, has a really good mid-range jumper, a nice jump hook to the right, an awesome turn-around fadeaway, wants to dunk the ball, great reads for the most part, and best, but not last, awesome passing ability.

What I hope to see improve as the game goes along; not just setting picks, but hedging off a fake screen. Learning to not get so emotional, demanding lower position on the blocks, bringing tenacity withing constraint, and getting lower defensively on the blocks of guarding low-post. If he can do these, not get any injuries, and not do anything stupid emotionally, he is just a man amongst boys out there right now. I know he will take some lumps (will be curious to see him against Sullinger), but potential along with great skill is just as high for him as anybody in this draft.

Chime in, criticize, whatever, but I guarantee scouts and his potential are at least top 3 this upcoming draft.

Meyers Leonard is a guaranteed lottery pick when he goes into the draft. You just can't teach his height and agility. Plus, he's an excellent free-throw shooter and a good passer.

I hope he stays another year to polish his game. I think that, after his junior year, he could be the number one overall pick in the draft. If he goes after this season, he'll be a high pick, but he probably won't be complete enough to be the first player taken.

Meyer's will be a lottery pick this year barring an injury. And I can't blame him for making the jump and taking the money. These guys are all one injury away from having their careers ended. You have to go when you can.

The draft also lacks any true centers. Let alone a true center with Leonard's physical ability, potential, and basketball skills.

Assuming he stays healthy, he's a lottery pick right now. As many others have said, the NBA drafts potential, and ML is oozing potential.

But I also think he's trying to do something that is very difficult--he didn't play much last year so he's basically like a red shirt freshman. Given this, there is a reasonable chance he'll "hit the wall." The hitting the wall thing is usually attributed to there being more games in college than high school, but I suspect there is at least one other factor going on. It's mentally and physically taxing to try to improve rapidly, and ML is still clearly learning. (Did y'all hear Weber yelling at him to find a guy to guard, for example?) Trying to train at a high intensity and work on all sorts of things becomes a grind over time--and it's compounded by the schedule getting tougher in the second half of the season (which becomes its own grind).

All that is to say that his improvement so far has been remarkable, but I suspect he's going to plateau for a while at some point here fairly soon. Given this, I think one more year in college would not only help his draft standing but would give him a much better chance of reaching his potential in the NBA. If he leaves after this year--depending on where he ended up--there is a decent chance he'd end up spending lots of time sitting on an NBA bench, which is a hard way to improve. For his long term prospects of actually being a good NBA player, I think they'd be improved by playing another year in college.

My impression could all change if he continues to exceed expectations, but at this moment, if I were in his place, I think I'd figure out a way to take out an insurance policy against a career-ending injury and then stay the extra year.

Myers Leonard will be the #1 pick in 2012 NBA draft unless he gets injured. I can't see how he can be passed up.

While I would like every player to stay as many years in college as possible, staying an extra year (especially past sophomore year, rather than freshman year) when someone is projected as a lottery pick does not make sense. The insurance policy is not much money, and the current financial structure (rookie salary cap) pretty much negates the benefits of holding an extra year for more money.

Plus most of the NBA stars have come out of HS or within their first 2 years, so unfortunately the NBA is different than what it used to be, even from a maturity standpoint.

I hope I don't get banned for this, but I commonly refer to him as "White Howard." He's a beast and I agree will go #1 at the rate he's going. Final vote at the end of the season after facing the likes of Sullinger, et al.

He reminds me of Bill Walton (physically, not . . . well you know).

I agree. He could certainly come out and be a lottery pick in 2012. But if there is a guy who could benefit from another year in college to develop his game and mature a bit it would be Leonard. Maybe I'm being selfish, but I really think it would be in his long run interest to stay at Illinois for his junior year (barring a major improvement over the course of the season).

Barring only injury, Meyers Leonard will certainly be a lottery pick in NBA draft whenever he decides to leave Illinois. Could be 2012.

Hasheem Thabeet was the 2nd overall pick in 2009. There isn't enough time or space here to explain the ways in which Leonard is better than Thabeet.

7'1
Shooting Touch
Off the charts athleticism
Progressing passing game and shot blocker
mean streak

Sure he could stay and continue to get better but he is a top 5 pick right now imo

I really hope he stays one more year. That would probably ensure that next year would be a very, very special season.

+1 me too :thumb:

One thing we have to realize is that Meyers while he is already playing fairly well this early in the season is still relatively green and a long ways from his ceiling. Even so Meyers already has a nationwide audience witnessing his prodigious athletic ability and talent and pegging him as a high draft pick or lottery pick. Yet Meyers will continue picking up steam and admirers as Illinois still has 22-28 games to go this season and Meyers will keep on learning, progressing and getting even better still. I totally expect by the end of this season he will have become a much better player and much more appreciated than even he is now. Then his stock may really be soaring. Still I hope he comes back and wins a national championship in '12-'13

Meyers could pull a Tyler Hansbrough and come back to lead his team to the NC. If he comes back next year I have no doubt we'll have a good chance to win it all with the combination of talent AND experience that we'll have at all positions, ESPECIALLY if Abrams makes significant strides over the course of the season.

Since he was a fouling machine the previous year, Leonard has only played significant time in ten games. Ten games in which the competition was not what it will be during the conference season.

While he has shown improvement, he is nowhere near demonstrating to be a dominant post presence. Granted that partly due to the fact that the team often fails to drive in and dish to him as well as feed the post with any consistency.

He has maturity issues and needs to work on his rebounding skills.

The 12/17 and 12/22 games along with conference play will provide a better tell in regards to how ready he is to be a potential draft pick.

If I had to guess, I think he'd be a top ten pick, though it's a little hard to project at this point. On the one hand, there aren't many people in the world who have athleticism and size that can compete with Dwight Howard and also make the passes that Meyers made tonight, convert that fadeaway jumper, and shoot 80% from the line. It's not hard to imagine him efficiently scoring 20 points a night in a pick-and-roll NBA offense.

On the other hand, he has yet to prove that he's anything better than "pretty good" on the glass at the college level, and it's hard to imagine a team using a very high pick on a center who projects as only an ordinary rebounder at the NBA level. He also doesn't demand the ball on offense yet. I know he's come an extraordinary way since last season -- I can't think of a single player who I've seen improve so much from season to season -- but he's going to have to show scouts that he's going to be the kind of aggressive player who gets his paws on the ball every possession on offense and who shows the activity and desire to be a great NBA rebounder.

In all, I think too many question marks right now to project as a top three pick, but certainly enough upside to project close to the top of the draft, and likely as the best pure center prospect.

The rebounding is one thing that has to concern others; reminds me a little of Brooke Lopez, but is faster, better at blocking, and with better passing.

Leonard's draft stock may not ever get any higher.

Right now, to the NBA scouts, all his weaknesses are being blown off as being inexperienced or he will grow into his body. Because of his improvement over last year, all his new found skills are being multiplied/projected 10 fold.

As many have stated here, the NBA drafts potential.

He reminds me a bit of Patrick Ewing who was never what I would consider a great rebounder, but effective enough

Just as long as he's not annoying like Mr. Know It All.

The only way he could be passed up right now, is if a team REALLY needs a power forward...in which case, Thomas Robinson is the best PF hands down. Otherwise, I can't think of many teams in the lottery that wouldn't want to build their future around a barely 20 year old 7'1" 250lb center that runs the floor, jumps out of the gym, shoots with touch, and hits fts.

Yeah, I hate to say it, but he's probably gone. I cannot picture him coming back at all. I don't expect it to happen. Nnanna won't be a shabby replacement though.

NBA draft.net has him 17, but most sites don't list him (presumably because he is a relative unknown from last year and there were no indications he wanted to turn pro).

I can see some negatives on him, mostly that he would get pushed around in the pros, and tend to believe he will benefit from another year in college ala Deron (move towards the very top). He's clearly talented enough for the lottery, and a surefire first rounder. His positives are rare though, being so tall and agile. Reasons why I think another year might be best for him:

1. Maturity. I think he would benefit mentally from a championship run in college, and we have really good upside next year.
2. His post game is still a work in progress. He will get a lot better there technically, working for position, and with his decisions, and remove any doubt.
3. His body will benefit from a year of focused work.
4. A deep tournament run always moves your draft stock. Hard to fake being a winner.
5. The bidding war/hype machine will intensify. NBA GMs love a kid who sells tickets immediately.

The downside is obvious --you can't predict injuries. He's so athletic that I like his odds of staying healthy, but you can't blame a kid for taking the first money he gets a chance at.

Either way, glad he's an Illini!

Really good point. Guys like Maggette and Marvin Williams got drafted high because they showed just enough to the scouts to tantalize, but didn't play enough minutes to expose too many flaws. That is a risk for Meyers, he comes back and his game may get scrutinized more than he'd like. Of course, that may still happen this year. However, I think given his size, he has more leeway than a 6'6" or 6'9" guy does as those types are more commonplace for NBA needs.

somewhere around 8-15 right now depending on how things shake out.

I think this is spot on. There are aspects to his game that are improving and I think that they could get more polished as the season progresses, but I think his detractions could be better suited being worked on in the college environment than at the pro level. Post moves don't get better sitting on the bench nor does his ability to battle in the block. At this point in time, if for some reason I had an influence on this kid, I'd tell him to continue to work on his game in college and continue to show his dominance. It's unfortunate, but I think if his epiphany had come during his Freshman year, I think I could see him enjoying much more success. But alas, he didn't and my opinion is that he's in this middle ground area.

The one thing for me that I'm most worried about with ML is his maturity. It was mentioned earlier that he has a mean streak, but I also think he's also very mentally fragile. Shoot, he didn't even want to try out for the USA basketball tour this summer. He is gaining confidence but you can tell that he hasn't learned to handle some of the situations on the court very well. SM always has to step in and be the angel on his shoulder telling him to settle down. I would much rather see him continue to pick up steam and growth in college, where it's a bit more sheltered and you've got consistency, rather than out there as a pro, where you've got to manage yourself and with the travel, new freedom, new money, and influences...I'd just hate to see anything go wrong with him.

I know he says he's more mature..yada yada...but it's not 100% evident on the court. So for this reason along with some of the others mentioned above, i feel like ML could benefit from another year and that if some team were to take him on, they wouldn't do it as a #1 pick..no way.

Those NBA draftnet projections will need revised mightily. Sullinger at #5? Teague at #15? The only guys at this point that I could argue should be taken as high as Meyers are Drummond, Terrance Jones and Anthony Davis depending on a teams need. Shooting guards and small forward are not at a premium and I don't see any point guards right now that are top 5

Austin Rivers will be high on all the draft boards.. ML has already shown he can hit from the outside this year so that will help his stock.. the atheletic freak he got from the man above is obvious and his free throw shooting is very good. if he goes to pre-draft workouts it is over. he would have to decide he is coming back regardless to grow as a player and maybe be number 1 next year along with a very good team

I totally see the hype and it is warranted given Meyers' recent display of being able to put his skill set together alongside his natural talents. I want to see how he performs in conference play before we annoint him the next #1 overall pick.

People seem to forget that just last year after non-conference play, everyone on this board and most of America thought Meechi was a lock to be a first round pick. Now while Meechi certainly didn't have the athletic ability that Meyers has, I think it's important to keep in perspective the grueling nature of the Big Ten conference schedule and how much of a damper it can put on players.

Wrongo. You cannot compare Leonard to Maggette and Williams because he is 7'1" tall, and they are far from it. The so-called scrutiny directed towards Leonard will be totally different. His obvious natural gifts far outweigh any short-termed deficiencies in any given skill, such as rebounding. Anyway, if you haven't watched the last couple of games, he is getting to the rim quicker on defense, and elevating a bit higher to grab the carom. Each game he is becoming more comfortable, more confident, and more effective than the previous game. His growth has been nothing short of phenomenal.

He is quickly becoming our best offensive weapon, and if our guards (namely BP & DJ) would learn how to use him, like TG and SM are discovering, our offense will begin to click. Meyers' passing can lead to great things for this year's team.

Let's enjoy him this year, because he may not return.

With that said, one more year couldn't hurt him, unless of course, he actually got injured. He currently isn't socially mature enough to handle the NBA, but as fast as he is growing in all other areas I'm sure he'll grow in this area, too.

He will be complete once he learns how to handle the opposing players, and the refs. Ignore them, Meyers. Don't make eye contact with them. Don't talk to them. Intimidate them with your focus on your teammates, and your play. Ignore them, and you'll win the mental and maturity games. Also, stay humble. Keep that small town personality no matter how much you earn in the future.

And don't forget what Tom Crean said about you, Meyers. Unleash the inner beast on him and Indiana.

davidlee. I am on record as saying, and I have the bruises from the beating I took from "smarter" members of this board, that Illinois would probably have NO ONE drafted in either round last year. Yes, I even included JR. There were also a couple members who agreed with me, and experienced a similar verbal beating.

I don't know. He has the potential, certainly, but if the draft is anything like last year's draft (which was certainly affected by the status of the lame duck CBA) then it's hard to say. With so many great players coming out, I don't think he's quite ready to be a lottery pick yet. First round? Sure, but if the draft was today, I wouldn't put money on him making the top 20.

I'm anxious to see what his NBA stock does once he hits conference play and is consistently on TV having giant-sized battles with guys like Sullinger. Sullinger is clearly a lock for the lottery, and if ML shows he can bang with someone like that, it will propel him to that same status.

LOL, I forgot about that. What exactly did Crean say?

Also, Crean is a tool. But I'm glad he beat Cal. But he still is a moron.

Disagree. Study Sean May for a solid Sullinger comparison. Sullinger will have to show a lot more of his athletic prowess, if there is anymore, to the NBA GMs. I believe Sullinger has hit his ceiling already, so with him, you get what you see.

If they held the '12 NBA Lottery today, Meyers Leonard would be a lottery pick, and maybe the #1 pick. Potential, Botb9, potential. ML has it oozing from his 7'1" ears.

I searched for the exact quote but can't find it anywhere. Can anyone help us with Crean's ML quote?

http://www.illinoisloyalty.com/Forum...0&postcount=34


That's the post.

I strongly disagree that most of America thought Dmac was 1st round material. I surely never thought he would be drafted in 1st round and probably not even in second and I told people as much. Meyers is a totally different case. Anyone with a true eye for talent can see Meyer's enormous good given talent and off the charts potential. Meyers is still so far away from his ceiling it's almost frightening how good he can become. I truly believe if Meyers keeps learning, keeps progressing, gets experience, gets stronger, that he has a real opportunity to become the most valuable player in the MBA some day. Which NBA team wouldn't want that on their team? Exactly, what Meyers will become some day is what every NBA GM dreams about. They will be competing feverishly for rights to draft him, mark my word. It won't depend on how many more games Meyers "proves himself" or how many stats he piles up. There is no one else quite like Meyers and every one will want a piece of him and go along for the ride. Unfortunately Meyers will be playing his best basketball not at Illinois but in the NBA as he fills out, matures and progresses. Yet we will remember his relatively gawkish, mistake prone and immature youthfulness mixed in with the highlight reels showing the tremendous promise of what he is destined to become. No, NBA teams will want to get in sooner rather than later and he will be a lottery pick whenever Meyers Leonard decides to move on to the next level.

DMac the first part of the year - late 1st / early 2nd
DMac the latter part of the year --.... well - he didn't get drafted. Enough said.

Thanks, illynifan!!

Here it is, from cmore:

is that 4 realz?

anyways, re: his potential as a top 5 guy (and maybe someone with more knowledge can help) when was the last time a college big was taken top 5 and was on a team that didn't make noise in the dance. I get the impression even guys taken on potential (tyrus thomas types) have enough pure talent to take their teams deep into the dance.

Here is the scenario that has been stuck in my head.

The Illini get into the tournament. We advance 2-3 rounds in and look very solid in losing to the eventual champs/runner ups. Sometime between the end of our current season and the start of the next, Meyers holds a press conference. In this press conference he announces that while his goal is to play in the NBA, he will be coming back for one more year with the sole intention of winning a NC. In closing his statement he says, "I'd like to take this opportunity to invite my fellow Illinioisan, Jabari Parker, to come along for the ride!". :D

Andrew Bogut 2005 Utah. Similar skill set as Meyers without the elite athleticism

Meyers would have to stay for his senior year to play with Jabari. They'll never play together (unless they meet in the NBA).

Ah, my bad. :(

wasn't that a S16 team?

ummmmm,,, this is so wrong on so many levels its unreal..Ill take that bet everyday till the draft. If he did not play another game this year he would be drafted in the top 10 on what he has done and more importantly his potential, not to mention his size, strength (yes, and has body to fill out with more muscle), speed, jumping, a 15 foot shot he is knocking down now, and good free throw shooter.. is he ready to take nba by storm like blake griffen- no, but gm's in 10-20 draft range who pass on him would be eventually fired!!!!!

The things he cant do can be taught in the nba with tons of focus on post moves etc and working with team trainers.. cant teach what he already is- 7'1 atheletic freak.. hope he returns but i said before the season most likely he's gone.. His play only confirms this and actually he has taken it to a new level- wait until he plays well in the bigten and or the mizzuo game, the attention and pub will be all over the place. he will play in the tourney, nba scouts already coming to see him in C-U

Here's another scenario.

We play Kentucky in the tournament. Meyers dominates Anthony Davis in every facet of the game (which I think would happen).

Meyers is the number 1 overall draft pick.

sounds good to me,,make a deep run, maybe elite 8 and he is number 1 or 2 pick..you never know!!! The thing that has put him over the top is his jump shot that he is hitting pretty consistently and free throw shooting. most guys his size arent very good at that at age 19.... nba teams have a bigs coach to work with their center..

Did everyone else see that behind the back dribble Meyers did last night when penned deep in the corner by his defender? I'm not sure if I've seen another big do anything like that, especially this early in his development. He really is a special talent.

I think some are injecting a little too much of the potential talk into this thread. After a quick glance at recent drafts (foreign players aside), just about all top 5 draft picks and especially 1-2, are on good/great college teams. If we're going to be serious about the Meyers as a top 5 guy, we should be a little more optimistic about the team's prospects as a whole.

good point and I agree with that.. We are 10-0 and no matter how ugly some of the games we are undefeated and ranked!! so the team is doing well... now do good in conference- maybe get a 5 seed (bigten confernece power ranking has to be high!!!) and win some games in the tourney!

Agreed. Some of this talk is premature. BIG teams will be better at containing Meyers, challenging his position, working the passing lanes, etc.. He will be compared against a number of good bigs during the season, and that will do more to determine his stock than his early season leaps forward. He had an impressive game against Sacre. At the same time, you could see he has a ways to go with physical play. Kid is immensely gifted, but whether he gets up into the lottery is still an open question in my mind.

Regarding last year's group, I said DMAC/JR/Davis were borderline, and I gave odds at 40% of one getting drafted, most likely Davis, as I felt he came on nicely and had a great nose for rebounding that would translate to the next level. Recall that DMAC was in great shape on the draft board with his early play, but simply didn't handle it well after the early attention and the team suffered greatly down the stretch.

It's fun to be having this conversation about Meyers. We're lucky to have him.

I think we need to keep in mind that this team has not played anybody yet. Sorry, but Gonzaga is an average team at best. When leonard goes up against some of the other bigs in the big ten, that will give us a better idea as to where he really is. I think he has come a long way, but he has to demand the ball in the post and he does not. Time will tell, but until the team as a whole is matched up against a top notch team, we won't really see what he has to offer.

they are not going to draft ML solely on his play in the bigten or his potential..its a combination of his overall play and overall skill set along with his god given size, speed, potential, and atheletic ability....imho, he is a lottery pick now, GM's do their homework and realize what he is and what he projects out to be and that is a top big man that you cant pass on.... He owned Scare from gonzaga (second half / crunch time he out scored him in the half like 18-2 iirc) and more will come as we play higer profile games.,,, it sucks but either way he is a high draft pick imho- today

Reasons?
1) he may value his time as a college athlete, once you leave, there is no coming back.
2) he may believe there is a chance to go to FF or NC (I think this is realistic)
3) the extended college experience may very well improve his longevity and overall performance in the NBA.
4) The teams likely to draft him may be places he does not want to go.
5) His marketability after a junior year would dwarf his marketability right now. Next year he could be a 20-10 man or higher. Right now he isn't averaging double doubles.
6) He would be in line for a ton of awards.
7) If he just waited one more year, he would not be a #1 draft pick, he would be the #1 overall draft pick.
8) The odds of a real serious injury are not really all that high.

A parallel is going to grad school.
I can use myself as an example. When I got done with my MS, I could have gone to two different schools. I stayed out for 5 years, and went back.
The 5 years out of school allowed me to learn a lot of things about attending doctoral studies. I met a lot of people who didn't make it, they gave me great advice. When I came back, I avoided as many of there mistakes as was possible. In the end, I was happier for it, had a stronger doctoral experience that set me up for much more success in the workforce.

If leonard jumps way early, he will get his sign-ons and so forth. But, he may not play right away. He is just now learning how to deal with double teams of average players, is he ready to face single defense or double teams from elite NBA athletes? I think if he waits until next year, he could leap right into a starting position and hold it for a long career. If he leaps now, he is more likely to come off the bench or play on a horrible team. That isn't a reflection of his talent, just the stage of growth he is in. SOmetimes taking your time to smell the flowers is better.

I got a chuckle out of that as well. Didn't I read somewhere he played guard early in his HS/JrHS career, and later wing, until he had his growth spurt?

You quoted my post but apparently didn't read all of it.


I don't think that's really the way to look at it. In many cases, those are the "good/great teams" because they've recruited a lot of the NBA ready talent, so it's a chicken/egg scenario. I don't think Illinois' success will have a huge impact on Leonard's NBA prospects.

true but it's not like he's stranded in a talent desert and as for the bolded, i was kind of looking at it the other way around. I think the reality of Meyers being a legit NBA prospect should impact Illinois more than predictions of 15 win seasons we're seeing tossed around.

We're already up to 10, do you think those predictions of 15 wins are right?

Yes, I did.

You compared Leonard with the other two gentlemen, but with a caveat.

I said you can't compare them, period.

I should have been more clear, sorry.

Hey, if you aren't old enough to have suffered with us through the 1979 season, then you wont understand. ;)

I see about 7 likely wins left, so probably not.

Unfortunately he's probably old enough to have suffered through this past/current football season. :tsk:

I see/expect 2 wins in the next 3 games. So you are predicting only 5 wins in B1G play? Certainly not much of an optimist are you? :)

I looked up the injury risk data as an FYI.
I could not find men's basketball, but did find women's basketball.
It should be noted that women incur injury 1.6 times more than men!
(that stat is provided here: A comparison of men's and women's professional basketball injuries http://ajs.sagepub.com/content/10/5/297.short)

The below data are from: Descriptive Epidemiology of Collegiate Women's Basketball Injuries: National Collegiate Athletic Association Injury Surveillance System, 1988–1989 Through 2003–2004
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1941290/

The proportion of women basketball players who were
injured in game situation = 0.77%
Injured in preseason practice = 0.68%
Injured in regular season practice = 0.28%
About 25% of all injuries restrict participation >10 days so,
the probability of getting >10 days off due to injury
(0.0077 + 0.0068 + 0.0028)*0.25 = 0.43%.

In other words, 4.3 out of 1000 women basketball players will have an injury
(on average) that keeps them out of a game more than 10 days.

That is pretty low risk if men and women are equal, but we know that the data says women get injured in basketball 1.6 times more often than men. So, the risk that a man would get an injury that keeps them out for more than 10 days only....
0.27%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(obviously a career-ending injury is much lower risk as it is a subpart of the 0.27%!!!)

I suspect that the odds of an athlete succeeding in the NBA when leaving early is substantially higher than this, but I can't find the data! :)

Based on this, if Leonard stayed, it is probably a very unrisky choice because he is looking at a 99.73% probability of not getting a serious injury. His odds of making more money, getting more advantage next year far outweighs his odds of having any kind of a serious injury!

I didn't predict anything, i just said i quick counted 7 likely wins

Corrected :D

You're reasoning makes sense but i think you've been drinking a bit too much cool aid. :D I think he's got lottery written all over him when he comes out but it takes a lot more than having athletic ability alone to being drafted high. He could just as easily be the next deandre jordan in the draft (picked 35) as he could be the number 1 pick as you claim. It's not just about declaring when you have the size, athletcism, and some productivity. You've got to be productive consistently and have good fundamentals at least defensively. I personally put him somewhere in the late lottery or middle 1st round pick. Yes he has off the chart athleticism but he's still learning to play effectively inside. Most of his big games have come against teams with little to no size. He won't have the easy alley oop dunks as often in the nba as he gets here. His post play is decent but still a long way from a steady option.

Yes the potential and ceiling is quite high are there but he's still got a lot of work to do on the fundamentals. (fortwork while rebounding, putting on more size, getting used to defense 7 foot big man, making sure he doesn't get caught out of position defnsively). You see flashes of brillance a huge block and athletic dunk but you also see passivity where he'll kind of get lost in the game for a while. You don't see the same quality post moves that you saw from blake griffin or see from jared sullenger. These players know how to establish themselves in the post and have an already developed post game, not to mention they rebound extremely well. Meyers has improved but it's still clear a lot of his productivity is coming against. Look at Blake Griffin he was expected to go somewhere between picks 8-10 had he come out his freshman year then he came back and jumped up to 1 when he showed he could do it consistently and when his team won a lot. You look at his numbers for both years as a freshman at Oklahoma, he averaged 14.7 points and 9.1 rebounds in 28.4 minutes per game and led the Sooners to a 23–12 record. His sophomore year Griffin averaged 22.7 points, 14.4 rebounds and lead his team to a 27-5 regular season record. You also have to look at the draft class. This year's class is a very strong one. If Leonard had been playing like this last year he very easily could've been the number one pick (I think he would be better than Eneres Kanter that's for sure if he had put up numbers like this last year).

I hope Meyers proves what i say wrong and he shows me and illini nation that he can assert himself regularly against other teams with good size on a consistant basis. Moreover you've got to show you can carry your college team to win, because if you can't carry a college team then you're likely not going to be able to carry a pro team as a star and warrant a high draft pick. If he does then you might be right he could have the potential to be a high pick not to mention we will probably have a great year as illini. Also it's possible one team takes him really high just it just takes one team to want to find their franchise center (Thebeet (team won), Kanter(didn't play bad draft class), Oden (team won a lot), ect. etc. etc.) to have a player like Leonard drafted high. But just going off what i've seen on the court I doubt teams will completely jump on the hype to put him that high up on their boards and i think he'll slip further than you foresee.

Sorry kind of a messy post but you get the idea. Athleticism= potential to be high pick. Needs work on fundamentals and consistency against good competition (look for big 10 play where it will be physical). And needs to show he can bring a team to new hights (to be determined this year, so far so good though).

Meyers needs one more year in college before moving on. :thumb:

I don't consider Sweet 16 a deep run, but it really is immaterial in my world. For guys like Deron or Kemba Walker a terrific tournament can turn you from 1st round to high draft pick because of intrinsic qualities not readily measured while leading their clubs. Centers dont lead their team because generally they aren't the floor general directing traffic, so their physical skills are far more important.

Illinois could lose every game from here out and once the scouts get a load of Meyer's physical skills in the predraft camps he shoots into top 5 territory. Cole Aldrich was chosen 11th, Patrick O'Bryant top 15, Michael Olowokandi #1, Jason Collins #18, Hasheem Thabeet #2 and they are a giant collection of stiffs.

Anthony Davis is less ready than Meyers imo but will certainly be a top 5 pick because of projections

Deandre Jordan isn't as big or on the same planet athletically as Leonard. Griffin is 6'9, Meyers 7'1 that is a huge difference.

Agreed. :thumb:

I agree with those saying that if Meyers leaves after this season he will be a lottery pick. It will certainly hurt our potential next year, but may help us with some of these big-time 2013 and 2014 recruits. Certainly can't hurt our chances with guys like Schilling, Okafor and Parker.

I am not so sure he will be ready to go after this year. We haven't even started B1G play yet. If he continues his level of consistent play, then he will probably go. Still a long season to go yet!

To me it really matters how Meyers looks against decent competition. Against the Bonnies, honestly, I thought he showed a 6'9 power forward with long arms and good athleticism could keep up with him defensively and offensively. (Though the bonnies were doubling early as well)

How he looks vs the Big Ten teams (especially against Zeller and Sullinger) will determine whether he will be in danger of falling out of the lottery range vs rising to a top 5 pick.

I hope thoughts of this do not impact his staying a team player against those opponents.

That said, I expect him to improve over the season and be a lottery pick.

If he draws the double team hasn't he already done his job. BP drove to the lane late but backside cuts and drives should have been open all night.

If he can rebound and score in the Big10, then he's gone. They've played a weak schedule so far, and very little was known about Leonard until his breakout Gonzaga game, so lets see how he does after teams have thorougly scouted him and key on him defensively.

Folks, it is going to come down to whether he WANTS to go! He will be a high 1st round pick the way he is now. I just hope can be convinced by his teammates to stay. We shall see.

Shouldn't a number one pick, as a center especially, be putting putting up 25-30 per game in college? Just sayin.

I'll correct myself, I guess about 15-16 ppg is all you need. Just looked at Greg Oden's stats.

I know, and I hear ya. We are ruining this poor guy - tempting him to inflate his ego. :o We should stop with all the gushing.

Really, good point. He has the type of personality that loves college life, and the thrill of his college team winning on the court. The longer he stays, the higher quality his life will be in the future. A little education never hurts anyone! :) Nor has an NCAA Championship been known to cause any harm to a person.

I am praying that he stays around. We would be Final Four contenders next year with him.

However, if we were to sneak into the Final Four this year, I would not be complaining if he made the jump :D

Yep, I watched him every year at the Capital Classic in Lawrenceville and he went from being a 6'1" guard, to a 6'5" forward, to a 6'10" center, to a legitimate 7' center his senior season.

Test him for those growth hormones :laugh:

good to have you on this board- OKCM!!! keep up the good work

Thank you Cosa,

I am doing my very best to make Krush as glorious as it can possibly be!

nice!!! Ill be at the UC / make sure the OK is jumping:D

OKCM,

It is your job to get him a great girl friend who will not consider moving until she gets her degree from UIUC 2-3 years from now. :)

I will have the people from Krush that are there going crazy for the free throws. I'm sure that at the very least the band will provide plenty of ruckus :D

Draft Express seems to disagree. They have him listed as #17.

Cy, would love to help him out, but I need a girlfriend first before worrying about other people :laugh:

Isn't there some tall, attractive volleyball player . . . of the appropriate class year . . . that wants a tall, soon to be wealthy boyfriend? :D

Being in OK is tough on relationships, especially when the team is good and you are camping out twice a week sometimes during conference season and the lady friend isn't as involved as you are, but mine survived, it is possible with the right gal.

Leonard is a sure lottery pick. You can find 14 better college basketball players but you can't find 14 better NBA prospects. Especially with Leonard's potential, physical ability and basketball skills. And the NBA is all about potential, not necessarily college achievement.

The other major factor is the shortage of "true centers." NBA teams will not pass up on him. Most of the highly ranked big men (e.g., Sullinger, Davis, etc.) are really PFs.

If comes back for his junior year, he could be the #1 pick come draft time. Right now he is probably between #10-#14.

I was a junior. That team went south when our PG, Steve Lanter, blew his knee out and we had no reasonable back-up (see Michael Orris).

That's actually pretty impressive...they had him as the 51st ranked prospect two weeks ago. Shows you how much his stock is rising.

Not meaning to be critical of the coaching staff in any way, but who on the staff is going to better prepare Meyers for playing 5 at the NBA level? The sooner he's playing against talented, next-level-quality bigs, the faster he'll improve. And he won't see many of those in college ball.

I'm at least half-serious in saying that we should be looking to arrange some consulting on NBA big-man play from the likes of Olajuwon or Ewing to help Meyers improve. Hakeem's worked out with DHoward for the last two summers (and it's elevated his offensive game, particularly the footwork) , and we should try to get Meyers to join them next year. (would this be an NCAA violation? - please forgive my ignorance if so) Maybe EddieJ is still friendly with the Dream from their days in Houston?

At any rate, it may take extraordinary measures to entice ML to stay. I agree with those who have him top 3, how can you pass this guy up?

Has a girlfriend already and she doesn't need the money...You might have heard of her family, I believe the athletic building is named after them.