This doesn't surprise me. There is a large amount of randomness associated with 3 point shooting. Let's say a team's "true" 3 point shooting percentage is 37% and they take 20 shots from the arc every game. I simulated 300 games and computed the number of times that hypothetical team hit 0-10% of their 3pt shots in a game, 10-20%, etc... What is clear is that even when we take defense, offensive strategy, player health, etc... out of the equation, there is a substantial variation in shooting % from game to game. The game-to-game variation is substantially less for 2 point shots because the shooting % is generally much higher. The tendency is for fans and sportswriters to attribute this variation to coaches, strategy, offensive execution, defensive effort, etc... when in fact there is a substantial amount of variation that has nothing to do with these factors. In a single-elimination tournament, getting hot from the arc can make a huge difference. This can allow inferior teams to win games and advance. In a long conference season, shooting tends to even out and the cream are more likely to rise to the top.

_0-10%___1%
10-20%___8%
20-30%__25%
30-40%__40%
40-50%__20%
50-60%___6%
60-99%___1%

Ahhhh yes. Wouldn't count on Hill and James staying if we get a new coach. Or JH staying to help recruit for that matter. Let's assume the new coach is on his own, which in all probability he will be, he better be able to recruit. Not advocating BW stay...it's past time for change. Just saying we can't have our cake and eat it too.

Hill has said he expects to come here even if there's a coaching change. JJ has been noncommittal but grew up a huge UI BB fan. Hiring a strong candidate like SS hopefully would keep him in the fray. If he doesn't, we'll have TA at PG through 2015 and could land another strong PG in 2014 or 2015.

If we are really willing to pay 2.5 million to Shaka as has been stated here and elsewhere, why can't we pay a more tenured coach those dollars? I mentioned Sean Miller what seems like 50 pages ago, Ben Howland as well. My point is, if we are going to have a coaching change and it certainly appears we are. Why not swing for the fences? I keep getting reasons why Illinois shouldn't succeed, or as though we are destined for some pecking order behind the top 5 jobs. I say we rise up and sell everything we have to offer and hopefully a state of the art arena refurb and get the best guy we can. Not really in favor of paying Shaka 2.5 million when that money could be spent on a much better coach.

Many people here consider Shaka Smart the best candidate on the market. You might not agree, but that's why many people are willing to throw a boat load of money at him.

$2.5M is the price tag SS supposedly gave MT in response to MT's initial feeler to him. I'd be very surprised if we paid him more than $2.2M if we hire him. That's not a huge difference, but $300K to $500K per year is $1.8M to $3M less over a 6-year contract.

Why would ML say that? Weber has not coached him to his full potential.

The $$ diff could be a moot point, if SS comes here and experiences a good bit of success then he's going to get extensions and raises.

All that matters is winning.

Unfortunately BW hasn't done enough of it in the recent past.

And the differential alone is more than the vast majority of humanity earns in a year. Smart is 33. Good heavens.

At least I've got 12 years to live up to that :thumb:

If we give Smart a 5-year, $12.5 million contract that is an average of $2.5 million per year. But the initial salary might be $2 million/year going up by increments of $250k/year. That really isn't much more than what we are paying Weber.

It is interesting in this interview that Shaka mentions that "Hoop Dreams" is his favorite movie, and that he watched it over 100 times, or something like that, and that his brother even said it may have inspired him to coach.

As we all know, "Hoop Dreams" is all about Chicago basketball, and the UI campus has a nice role in it. While no school can lock down Chicago, if any school can, it may just be UI, as Lou and Jimmy about did in the late 80's. Shaka may actually see the UI position as very attractive, and an optimal job for getting deeply engaged in Chicago while being in a prestigious, historic, wealthy, and stable conference.

Which is why I wrote "I hate to put Hill and James back into play".

I've seen a lot of discussion about Smart's relative lack of success in conference during his tenure at VCU however I think through his first 3 years he has shown an ability to get his teams to play their best down the stretch. Most of of the teams they finished behind in conference were pretty decent as well.

2012 VCU finished 2nd to Drexel who has an RPI according to Statsheet of 70. V
VCU is currently riding a streak of winning 14 of 15.

2011 VCU finished 4th behind ODU RPI 23, George Mason RPI 25, and Hofstra RPI 91. As we all know they finished 2011 winning 5 in a row to get to the Final 4

2010 VCU finished 5th behind ODU RPI 29, Northeastern RPI 78, William & Mary RPI 68 and George Mason RPI 163. VCU finished 2010 winning the CBI championship.

It seems to me that in his short time at VCU Smart is getting his teams hot or playing their best ball at the right time

Regarding VCU's run to the Final 4 last year, I think it is overly simplistic to equate their run to any one stat or luck. They beat 5 teams from BCS conferences by an average of 12 points a game. In doing so they soundly beat these teams cumulatively in all facets of the game other than rebounding. They were:

+30 3pointers made
+16 Free throws made
+30 assists
+11 steals
+18 turnover margin

Held teams to .389 shooting from the field. It looks to me like they played very good basketball all the way around while beating teams from the Pac 10, Big East, Big 10, ACC, and Big 12.

It would take more than $2.5 million to land Sean Miller. According to USA Today, he's already making $2.3 million not counting any bonuses. It would probably take closer to $3 million just to have a chance at him. The data linked is a bit out of date, but at least for Miller it shows that a "more tenured" coach isn't going to be cheap.

I agree. I think miller would be the Home Run Hire (IMHO), but I don't think it is going to happen. He is from the east coast, coached in the ACC at NC ST. and also has family that lives in Balitmore, so if he turned down Maryland, I have a feeling that he would turn down ILL. It is atleast worth a phone call, but I'm not sure much would come of it. I hope it does though.

I am a younger guy who has only been following ILL b-ball for about 15 years, but my father has been following it for about 50 years, probably like a lot of people on this site. He noted that he follows another message board like this, where there are people who are supposedly big donors who have spoken to Mike Thomas and they noted that there are coaches who are reaching out to UI through their agents about the possible opening. They also noted that the names were surprising as to how experienced some were. Obviously on a message board everything is hear say, but I'm hoping that whoever said that is right.


Also, doesn't it look wierd that Roy williams and Jim Boeheim make so little money??? Gotta be something that isn't being included for them.

Interesting. Can you share any names on the coaches who have put out interest?

I wish I knew. From who my dad talked to, they weren't giving out any names because MT doesn't want anything to get out and obviously whoever the coaches were don't want that getting out either. I'm not just trying to tease something on here, but unfortunately that is all I got. I just thought it was interesting that coaches were already reaching out and established ones, which means that maybe the ILL job is a little higher on the pecking order than some people might think.

I'm sure that a lot of coaches are interested in the Illinois job, but I doubt that the feeling is mutual.

That is the problem. I bet a lot of the guys with interest are in a position similar to Bruce Weber, maybe a year or two ahead of getting the ax.

Money isn't always the answer. Many school's are willing to pay this kind of money eventually, but throwing money at someone doesn't gaurantee success. If you do throw money at someone and it doesn't work you can set your program back even further than it already is. The smart thing to do and they're doing it, is commence a broad search for a candidate with the right attitude and pedigree. I'm doubtful a "big name" coach will leave even a decent situation even if the money is thrown at them. Remember these guys often times make more money off the court. I do agree that we shouldn't be behind in the pecking order but I'm not sure most coaches see it that way.

The sort of impact hire we're hoping for--Smart, Romar, Williams, Stevens--can only happen if the DIA steps up to compete at the highest level for its candidate. I'm hopeful they go after their #1 guy with gusto and demonstrate to him a sincere and serious commitment. I'd like the money part to be quickly addressed and resolved and the negotiation to be about performance expectations, how much control the coach will have, and how to position the program to advance rapidly.

The timing of the hire makes it particularly crucial with the great 2013 and 2014 classes looming. We need to capitalize as much as possible on that deep talent pool. The process and the hire itself should send an undeniable message that Illinois is for real and is in the hunt for a major national impact, not just solid performance and regional significance.

The really good coaches want a competitive salary but are more interested in a competitive position. The really good coaches are ultimately more interested in winning than compensation. That said, some would view our willingness to pay a head coach top dollar as indicative of "support" for basketball (whatever that means). A school willing to pay for a good coach might also be willing to pay for top notch facilities, a private plane for recruiting, etc...

Maybe even change the name from university of east central Illinois to THE University Of Illinois.!!:)