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-   -   The Fiscal Cliff (http://www.illinoisloyalty.com/Forums/showthread.php?t=18783)

pizzaman Nov 7, 2012 09:05 AM

The Fiscal Cliff
 
Can Congress and the White House manage to come together and reach resolution or will we close our eyes, hold our nose and jump?

I expect another short term "kick the can down the road" solution. I'll be amazed if we can really get past this during Obama's second term.

hermie1985 Nov 7, 2012 09:24 AM

Military will shrink either way. That is a bit scary as Iran becomes bigger threat to us and Israel. Will probably end up doing something like a Ryan plan or Simpson-Boles.

CaptainHindsight Nov 7, 2012 09:54 AM

cap and trade to the rescue!

DrewD007 Nov 7, 2012 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermie1985 (Post 630016)
Military will shrink either way. That is a bit scary as Iran becomes bigger threat to us and Israel. Will probably end up doing something like a Ryan plan or Simpson-Boles.

We spend more on our military than pretty much all other countries combined. Think we can afford to "shrink" it.

IntenselyOrange Nov 7, 2012 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pizzaman (Post 630001)
Can Congress and the White House manage to come together and reach resolution or will we close our eyes, hold our nose and jump?

I expect another short term "kick the can down the road" solution. I'll be amazed if we can really get past this during Obama's second term.

I hope we jump. I cannot believe any of these idiots who neglected to do their job were re-elected. I hope sequestration takes effect and everyone is voted out in 2 years. The only chance this country has is for things to get horribly bad so that people can see the error of their ways.

Holdemall Nov 7, 2012 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermie1985 (Post 630016)
Military will shrink either way. That is a bit scary as Iran becomes bigger threat to us and Israel. Will probably end up doing something like a Ryan plan or Simpson-Boles.

LOL.

hermie1985 Nov 7, 2012 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holdemall (Post 630075)
LOL.

So you don't think Iran is a bigger threat today than it was 4 years ago? I guess they are not in the sense we could wipe them out in a short time. I was referring to the growing nuclear capabilities in Iran. Thought it was rather self explanatory and hardly worth a LOL.

I expect Israel to take care of the problem at some point and then escalation eventually involving us anyway. Hope it doesn't come to that but seems quite likely.

Holdemall Nov 7, 2012 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermie1985 (Post 630084)
So you don't think Iran is a bigger threat today than it was 4 years ago? I guess they are not in the sense we could wipe them out in a short time. I was referring to the growing nuclear capabilities in Iran. Thought it was rather self explanatory and hardly worth a LOL.

I expect Israel to take care of the problem at some point and then escalation eventually involving us anyway. Hope it doesn't come to that but seems quite likely.

They are no threat whatsoever. The weapons program is really about satisfying certain conservative elements in the Iranian polity who really do want to go to war with Israel. Ahmadinijad has no interest in doing that whatsoever, but has to keep a lid on the real crazies in Iran's weird-assed political structure.

Well, given that we've been having back-channel discussions with Iran about their program, I expect this to be resolved. Remember, all politics is local, especially in Iran.

hermie1985 Nov 7, 2012 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holdemall (Post 630108)
Well, given that we've been having back-channel discussions with Iran about their program, I expect this to be resolved. Remember, all politics is local, especially in Iran.

Hope it gets worked out peacefully.

Leonardite Nov 7, 2012 02:49 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jikym...eature=related

The dollar will be worthless.

Snowball Nov 7, 2012 03:03 PM

Saw the stock market seems to be concerned with the coming fiscal cliff. It's down a good percentage so far. I'd guess many more days like this and we'll see some action out of DC to ease fears.

I suppose also quantitative easing's effect from the fed might be loosing some of its luster with Wall Street.

"The Stock Market’s Initial Reaction to Obama’s Re-Election"

http://dougpowers.com/2012/11/07/the...s-re-election/

Holdemall Nov 7, 2012 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leonardite (Post 630242)

Thank god I'm in real assets, then.

Leonardite Nov 7, 2012 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holdemall (Post 630259)
Thank god I'm in real assets, then.

Yeah. The only suggestion I would have for you all is to buy Gold and Silver.

I found this video as well (it says POTENTIALLY in the title, remember that). This could be what we're looking at eventually. Although it'd be tough to predict what everyone is going to do or say, I think the collapse of the dollar is inevitable at this rate. I don't see it slowing down either under Obama and I don't think it would have slowed down under Romney.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRgzt...eature=related

Holdemall Nov 7, 2012 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leonardite (Post 630264)
Yeah. The only suggestion I would have for you all is to buy Gold and Silver.

I found this video as well (it says POTENTIALLY in the title, remember that). This could be what we're looking at eventually. Although it'd be tough to predict what everyone is going to do or say, I think the collapse of the dollar is inevitable at this rate. I don't see it slowing down either under Obama and I don't think it would have slowed down under Romney.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRgzt...eature=related

Gold and silver is worse than useless. You keep buying it, and I'll keep making money shorting it.

Sure Shot Nov 8, 2012 08:33 AM

My expectation? A surprisingly large and bipartisan austerity package. With taxes and entitlement cuts.

hermie1985 Nov 8, 2012 09:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sure Shot (Post 630456)
My expectation? A surprisingly large and bipartisan austerity package. With taxes and entitlement cuts.

More taxes without any actions needed. Bush tax cuts set to end. I believe the Death tax goes way up without an action to prevent it. The cruelest redistribution method off all. Taxes paid while you earned it and again when you try to leave it to your own family. A crazy concept. In business the Sec 179 deduction has all but ended. This will hurt industrial manufacturers like Cat, John Deere and basically anyone who supplies capital assets for business. I really look for what is left of the American manufacturing base to shrink at a faster pace than ever. Obamacare costs will kick in. Alot more taxes already on the books.

On the otherhand, no Keystone pipeline, a less stable middle east and no drillling on public lands means higher energy in the future.

Okay, more taxes plus higher energy costs equals less income for everything else. No wonder the stock market took issue with the election results.

DaytonIllini Nov 8, 2012 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holdemall (Post 630326)
Gold and silver is worse than useless. You keep buying it, and I'll keep making money shorting it.

If you have made money shorting this,

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...n_2012.svg.png

I am going to call Full of Sh$$. You'd either be utterly broken right now or you'd be a lunatic living on the edge. Shorting gold over the past few years has been almost as stupid as shorting AAPL. Nobody can predict the future but with central banks printing money at ever increasing rates, it would take huge brass balls to make that bet.

IntenselyOrange Nov 8, 2012 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sure Shot (Post 630456)
My expectation? A surprisingly large and bipartisan austerity package. With taxes and entitlement cuts.

I highly doubt this will be the case. And to be fair, I'm not sure this is even what I'd want without knowing the details. I know I'm a bit of skeptic in general, but I have little faith in these morons to work out a compromise that will benefit the nation long term. It will likely cut the wrong spending and increase the wrong taxes (to satisfy their bases) such that we're even worse off.

DaytonIllini Nov 8, 2012 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hermie1985 (Post 630469)
More taxes without any actions needed. Bush tax cuts set to end. I believe the Death tax goes way up without an action to prevent it. The cruelest redistribution method off all. Taxes paid while you earned it and again when you try to leave it to your own family. A crazy concept. In business the Sec 179 deduction has all but ended. This will hurt industrial manufacturers like Cat, John Deere and basically anyone who supplies capital assets for business. I really look for what is left of the American manufacturing base to shrink at a faster pace than ever. Obamacare costs will kick in. Alot more taxes already on the books.

On the otherhand, no Keystone pipeline, a less stable middle east and no drillling on public lands means higher energy in the future.

Okay, more taxes plus higher energy costs equals less income for everything else. No wonder the stock market took issue with the election results.

There is zero chance that we go over the Fiscal Cliff permanently.

(1) AMT revision would murder working class people.
(2) Discretionary spending cuts would be non-targeted and affect every constituency.
(3) End of Obama tax cuts for everyone. People have been getting used to sucking off the government with low tax cuts. They'd lose it if they went back up to Clinton era rates.
(4) Massive cuts in Medicare payments to doctors. No way any doc takes Medicare if those cuts kick in. Automatic death stroke to Medicare if not fixed.
(5) Unemployment insurance disappears for many.

Smart play for the House would be to extend everything including current tax rates for high income earners and cap gains and dividends. Bundle it all up, pass it, and leave for Christmas. Let Senate either take us over the fiscal cliff and own it or pass it and extend the Bush Tax Cuts another 12-24 months. Put some fun stuff in there like aid for the disabled and an increase in education spending so that if the Dems vote against it, they can be crucified publicly for ruining Christmas.

Ransom Stoddard Nov 8, 2012 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaytonIllini (Post 630489)
There is zero chance that we go over the Fiscal Cliff permanently.

(1) AMT revision would murder working class people.
(2) Discretionary spending cuts would be non-targeted and affect every constituency.
(3) End of Obama tax cuts for everyone. People have been getting used to sucking off the government with low tax cuts. They'd lose it if they went back up to Clinton era rates.
(4) Massive cuts in Medicare payments to doctors. No way any doc takes Medicare if those cuts kick in. Automatic death stroke to Medicare if not fixed.
(5) Unemployment insurance disappears for many.

Smart play for the House would be to extend everything including current tax rates for high income earners and cap gains and dividends. Bundle it all up, pass it, and leave for Christmas. Let Senate either take us over the fiscal cliff and own it or pass it and extend the Bush Tax Cuts another 12-24 months. Put some fun stuff in there like aid for the disabled and an increase in education spending so that if the Dems vote against it, they can be crucified publicly for ruining Christmas.

This is what is wrong with politics. How about our elected officials take some accountability and fix the problem rather than find a way to make the "other side" look bad. Obstructionist policies, from either side, prolong the problem and further divide this country.

DaytonIllini Nov 8, 2012 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ransom Stoddard (Post 630498)
This is what is wrong with politics. How about our elected officials take some accountability and fix the problem rather than find a way to make the "other side" look bad. Obstructionist policies, from either side, prolong the problem and further divide this country.

Of course that is what is wrong with democracy but it has been going on for more than 200 years. Do you expect it to stop because O got reelected by a small margin and nearly every House republican was reelected by a bigger margin?

Boehner wasn't even oppposed in his reelection bid. Do you think he learned some lesson? He is wildly popular in his own district as most of the House members are. That is the only approval poll they care about. And they can do better by being the 'good parent' and letting the Dems say no.

Ransom Stoddard Nov 8, 2012 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaytonIllini (Post 630507)
Of course that is what is wrong with democracy but it has been going on for more than 200 years. Do you expect it to stop because O got reelected by a small margin and nearly every House republican was reelected by a bigger margin?

Boehner wasn't even oppposed in his reelection bid. Do you think he learned some lesson? He is wildly popular in his own district as most of the House members are. That is the only approval poll they care about. And they can do better by being the 'good parent' and letting the Dems say no.

I expect it to stop when the voting public figures out that the people we elect (and pay) to represent us are--in general--a bunch of self-serving nitwits who rarely back up their promises with actions.

And I mentioned neither Obama nor Boehner, so I'm not sure why you felt the need to interject them.

DaytonIllini Nov 8, 2012 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ransom Stoddard (Post 630521)
I expect it to stop when the voting public figures out that the people we elect (and pay) to represent us are--in general--a bunch of self-serving nitwits who rarely back up their promises with actions.

And I mentioned neither Obama nor Boehner, so I'm not sure why you felt the need to interject them.

Well quite obviously because they are the two most important people in America and the two of them will set the agenda for the country the next two years at a minimum. Who else matters in the world? Answer: nobody.

Charleston Nov 8, 2012 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaytonIllini (Post 630489)
There is zero chance that we go over the Fiscal Cliff permanently.


Smart play for the House would be to extend everything including current tax rates for high income earners and cap gains and dividends. Bundle it all up, pass it, and leave for Christmas. Let Senate either take us over the fiscal cliff and own it or pass it and extend the Bush Tax Cuts another 12-24 months. Put some fun stuff in there like aid for the disabled and an increase in education spending so that if the Dems vote against it, they can be crucified publicly for ruining Christmas.


This would make sense if the media were "fair and balanced". The Republican House passed budgets and other bills that Harry Reid wouldn't even bring up for a vote. Yet it was the Republicans who were labeled "obstructionists" by the President and his minions. And this president's idea of compromise was displayed early in his first term - "I won". It's either his way or the highway. (I'm also not sure why we need more federal education spending, but I get the point).

ctblaisdell83 Nov 8, 2012 12:01 PM

The one thing I think is even more constant in our political landscape is the elected official's keen eye for self-preservation. I expect there to be movement on both sides to avoid not just the cliff but even to avoid large-scale market downturns.

I've heard pundits say that with the election just past, that politicians will do what their hearts tell them. I think their hearts will tell them it's only 2 years (or 4 years, or 6 years) to the next election. The public will not like a deeper recession, nor will the top 10%ers want their 401k to be savaged...hence the politicians will work together just enough to avoid the meltdown while still being able to tell their party bases that "we won"


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