Illinois Bracketology Update

[WashUIllini]

Originally Posted by TCTORNADO

Looks like they project the odds of winning UM & UW games at less than 1%(.3%). UM will be close to pick'em and UW, we will be a double digit dog.
The hidden advantage they haven't figured in is "who is singing" NA for last home game??

that's damn near impossible. If Michigan is a pick em then for our probability of winning both to be <1% our chances of winning at Kohl would have to be less than 2%.

[4LaCosaNostra]

Originally Posted by WashUIllini

that's damn near impossible. If Michigan is a pick em then for our probability of winning both to be <1% our chances of winning at Kohl would have to be less than 2%.

inless they think whisky will win 98% of the time

[TCTORNADO]

Originally Posted by WashUIllini

that's damn near impossible. If Michigan is a pick em then for our probability of winning both to be <1% our chances of winning at Kohl would have to be less than 2%.

I was just following the original RPI link in this thread that said our "probabliity of an auto berth" is 0.36%. Since there are no lines yet on UM or UW, I was estimating. RPI did say odds of beating UM and UW is 4.97%. It does say if we beat both UM and UW that RPI is projected @ 51, which should get us in.

[GeorgiaIllini]

Now according to this genius, even winning our next FOUR might not get us in.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...&sct=hp_t13_a2

I think its all moot because the most likely outcome, sad to say, is that we lose our next two. Beating a powerhouse like Iowa, at home, hasn't changed things that much really.

[Dan]

Jerry Palm's updated bracket. (No Illinois, surprise surprise)

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[IlliniRunIn07]

Originally Posted by GeorgiaIllini

Now according to this genius, even winning our next FOUR might not get us in.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...&sct=hp_t13_a2

I think its all moot because the most likely outcome, sad to say, is that we lose our next two. Beating a powerhouse like Iowa, at home, hasn't changed things that much really.

I am convinced that making it to the final is no different than making it to the semi-finals in the committee's eyes. I still have a bad taste in my mouth from when we beat a good Wisconsin team and got snubbed. Didn't Lavin even tell BW that he secured his tourney berth on national TV?

[WashUIllini]

Originally Posted by TCTORNADO

I was just following the original RPI link in this thread that said our "probabliity of an auto berth" is 0.36%. Since there are no lines yet on UM or UW, I was estimating. RPI did say odds of beating UM and UW is 4.97%. It does say if we beat both UM and UW that RPI is projected @ 51, which should get us in.

Ah thanks for clarifying. That site sounds interesting.

[4LaCosaNostra]

Originally Posted by IlliniRunIn07

I am convinced that making it to the final is no different than making it to the semi-finals in the committee's eyes. I still have a bad taste in my mouth from when we beat a good Wisconsin team and got snubbed. Didn't Lavin even tell BW that he secured his tourney berth on national TV?

what killed us imho,, we played Turner and osu the next game and not an average michigan team.. turner hit a miracle half court shot or we play michigan and we are in.. not to mention we took osu into 2 overtimes

[BrooksTaylorFan]

Originally Posted by GeorgiaIllini

Now according to this genius, even winning our next FOUR might not get us in.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...&sct=hp_t13_a2

I think its all moot because the most likely outcome, sad to say, is that we lose our next two. Beating a powerhouse like Iowa, at home, hasn't changed things that much really.

21 wins and still on the bubble? No way.

[4LaCosaNostra]

Originally Posted by GeorgiaIllini

Now according to this genius, even winning our next FOUR might not get us in.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...&sct=hp_t13_a2

I think its all moot because the most likely outcome, sad to say, is that we lose our next two. Beating a powerhouse like Iowa, at home, hasn't changed things that much really.

he should be fired this second for being such a dumbarse... our rpi with 21 wins, assuming they are say;michigan, whisky, nw, IU would be in the high 30's... what a tool

[BrooksTaylorFan]

Originally Posted by 4LaCosaNostra

he should be fired this second for being such a dumbarse... our rpi with 21 wins, assuming they are say;michigan, whisky, nw, IU would be in the high 30's... what a tool

I said the same thing, only nicer. Haha

[PointGuardU01]

Originally Posted by IlliniRunIn07

I am convinced that making it to the final is no different than making it to the semi-finals in the committee's eyes. I still have a bad taste in my mouth from when we beat a good Wisconsin team and got snubbed. Didn't Lavin even tell BW that he secured his tourney berth on national TV?

And we would have been in if not for several teams stealing bids via upsets in mid-major tournaments. The lesson there is never make it that close. Unfortunately we may be back in that position....although I suppose I'd take that over where we are now. Beat Michigan!

[EpiIllini]

Has anyone watched Doug Gottlieb's latest Bubble Watch video on ESPN? He goes through all the teams on the bubble. For the Big10, skip about 4.5-5 minutes in and he seems to think that NW needs to win out to get in and if we win out we should be in. No mention of Purdue even thought they're on Eamonn Brennan's Bubble Watch.

[JoseyWales83]

This is the latest according to Lunardi...

BRACKET MATH

Take the “solid” at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 85 percent or better), and there are now 34 teams in the field. Add the remaining automatic qualifiers, and that’s another 20 spots. That's 54 of the 68 spots accounted for, with 14 still up for grabs among current bubble teams.

BUBBLE (26 teams for 14 spots)

IN (14, in S-Curve order): 35-Southern Miss, 36-California, 37-Cincinnati, 38-Alabama, 41-Arizona, 43-Seton Hall, 44-Connecticut, 45-West Virginia, 46-Mississippi State, 47-Brigham Young, 48-Miami, 49-Texas, 50-Northwestern, 51-South Florida

OUT (12, in S-Curve order): 69-Xavier, 70-Saint Joseph’s, 71-VCU, 72-Colorado State, 73-Oregon, 74-Colorado, 75-Dayton, 76-NC State, 77-Illinois, 78-New Mexico State, 79-Ohio U., 80-Central Florida

[ryls]

Originally Posted by JoseyWales83

This is the latest according to Lunardi...

BRACKET MATH

Take the “solid” at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 85 percent or better), and there are now 34 teams in the field. Add the remaining automatic qualifiers, and that’s another 20 spots. That's 54 of the 68 spots accounted for, with 14 still up for grabs among current bubble teams.

BUBBLE (26 teams for 14 spots)

IN (14, in S-Curve order): 35-Southern Miss, 36-California, 37-Cincinnati, 38-Alabama, 41-Arizona, 43-Seton Hall, 44-Connecticut, 45-West Virginia, 46-Mississippi State, 47-Brigham Young, 48-Miami, 49-Texas, 50-Northwestern, 51-South Florida
OUT (12, in S-Curve order): 69-Xavier, 70-Saint Joseph’s, 71-VCU, 72-Colorado State, 73-Oregon, 74-Colorado, 75- Dayton, 76-NC State, 77-Illinois, 78-New Mexico State, 79-Ohio U., 80-Central Florida

The good news is that UCONN lost to Providence last night, Xavier lost and NW will probably lose tonight, a couple wins this week and 1 in the tournament might do it

[4LaCosaNostra]

Originally Posted by ryls

The good news is that UCONN lost to Providence last night, Xavier lost and NW will probably lose tonight, a couple wins this week and 1 in the tournament might do it

YES, it seems last night was a good nigth for the illini's chances.. still have to expect some weird teams winning their conference championship game knocking BCS schools out

[BrooksTaylorFan]

Originally Posted by 4LaCosaNostra

YES, it seems last night was a good nigth for the illini's chances.. still have to expect some weird teams winning their conference championship game knocking BCS schools out

Win Thursday and we climb the Bubble.

[Calvin]

Originally Posted by orangeinsider

I think if we win one of the next two games and NW loses theirs, we're in and they're out. At least we have two marque wins compared to their one. Of course the BTT could change all that again.

Can't agree with this. If you take the avg bracket projection, we're 8 teams out at this point, and 13 down on NW. No way does a split move us up that many spots. Beat both and we have a chance of getting to the dance. Not a great chance, but a chance.

[4LaCosaNostra]

Originally Posted by Calvin

Can't agree with this. If you take the avg bracket projection, we're 8 teams out at this point, and 13 down on NW. No way does a split move us up that many spots. Beat both and we have a chance of getting to the dance. Not a great chance, but a chance.

I hear ya, but I think he is banking on some teams lossing as well and they will not be losing to the likes of ranked teams like we have to, so their rpi would go further down.. we control our own destiny either way which is nice.. if we win 2 in a row we are in by most accounts / win 2 in a row plus one btt game we are in forsure.. atleast it is interesting!

[uofiguy]

Originally Posted by WashUIllini

that's damn near impossible. If Michigan is a pick em then for our probability of winning both to be <1% our chances of winning at Kohl would have to be less than 2%.

I doubt Michigan will be a pick'em. It will likely be -5 or so Illini...and if we beat Mich, Wisky will also likely be less than a DD dog

[uofiguy]

So, if we win both remaining games our record against top 25 teams would be 5-6. Let's look at the last four in and first four out top 25 records (per Joe Linardi):

Last 4 in:
Northwestern 1-7
South Florida 0-5
Miami 1-3
Texas 1-6

Next 4:
Xavier 1-3
St. Joes 2-1
VCU 0-0
Co. St. 1-4

[uofiguy]

Bottom line is that if we get to 5-6 vs. top 25, we are likely in no matter what. You would be hard pressed to find a team with very few bad losses (2 road games in the big ten), who went 5-6 vs. the top 25 and did not get in. Especially when it appears as though a team like NW that will finish 1-8 vs. top 25 will get in somehow.

[HeartofaChampion]

Originally Posted by uofiguy

Bottom line is that if we get to 5-6 vs. top 25, we are likely in no matter what. You would be hard pressed to find a team with very few bad losses (2 road games in the big ten), who went 5-6 vs. the top 25 and did not get in. Especially when it appears as though a team like NW that will finish 1-8 vs. top 25 will get in somehow.

Agreed. Win the next 2 (a daunting task but not impossible) and we should be in.

[Kramer116]

Crazy to think that Palm (I think it was him) had us as a #2 seed after the Ohio State win...

[BrooksTaylorFan]

Originally Posted by Kramer116

Crazy to think that Palm (I think it was him) had us as a #2 seed after the Ohio State win...

But wasn't that based on if the tournament started as of that day? I'd settle for just being in the tourney. I hate picking brackets wien the beloved are not involved.