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Old Nov 11, 2012, 05:49 PM   #17151
troydove
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I agree, and that would be Carbondale Il, out of the south 7 conference.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 05:59 PM   #17152
Combo
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Originally Posted by Redbirds33333 View Post
How realistic is it that we land these certain prospects for 2014:

KBD - 75%?
Lyle - 25%?
Zabo - 33%?
Cliff - 25%?
Okafor - 10%?
O'Mara - 50%?
Finke - 50%?

I understand we can realistically only take 2-3 as of now...And our interest in certain recruits will change as kids commit, just curious everyone's take.

Just trying to get the topic back to "Illinois Hoops Recruiting"

You're WAY too high on all of these except for possibly Finke. Keep in mind the chance of getting any individual recruit (against the field) is generally way under 50/50. Finke might not follow that rule because he lives very near C-U and his father played for us. But even for him, I don't think I'd make an even money bet on us getting him.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 06:12 PM   #17153
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You're WAY too high on all of these except for possibly Finke. Keep in mind the chance of getting any individual recruit (against the field) is generally way under 50/50. Finke might not follow that rule because he lives very near C-U and his father played for us. But even for him, I don't think I'd make an even money bet on us getting him.

I'm with ya...You're probably right on most. Although, I do think our odds are high (50%+) on Finke, KBD, and O'Mara (if we go hard after him). No inside information, just trying to change topic a little bit. Could we be in the top 4 for Cliff...With a good year this year...Why not.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 06:18 PM   #17154
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Let's look at it another way. When was the last time we started a freshman point guard and we "sucked?". Last year with Abrams?

Before that? All the freshmen point guards listed for Illinois played on above average teams, right? So, we have had freshmen who have at least managed good teams even if they weren't the stars.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 06:30 PM   #17155
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Austin Colbert-
Quote:
College decision coming tomorrow ! #TurnUp

http://twitter.com/ACole_13_CTMD

Last edited by Dan; Nov 11, 2012 at 06:45 PM.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 06:31 PM   #17156
illinitownie
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Austin Colbert Just tweeted

@ACole_13_CTMND
College decision coming tomorrow !

Last edited by Dan; Nov 11, 2012 at 06:46 PM.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 06:33 PM   #17157
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Originally Posted by Illininaysh View Post
Austin Colbert ‏@ACole_13_CTMD

College decision coming tomorrow ! #TurnUp
Are we even still in the running? This announcement has been rescheduled so many times I've lost track of our status with this guy.

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Last edited by Dan; Nov 11, 2012 at 06:46 PM.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 06:36 PM   #17158
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Originally Posted by combes View Post
Let's look at it another way. When was the last time we started a freshman point guard and we "sucked?". Last year with Abrams?

Before that? All the freshmen point guards listed for Illinois played on above average teams, right? So, we have had freshmen who have at least managed good teams even if they weren't the stars.
Over the past 30+ years we have been above average the vast majority of seasons. Causality is a bit tenuous.

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Old Nov 11, 2012, 06:48 PM   #17159
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Approx 2:00pm CT tomorrow looks like for Austin Colbert's decision
Quote:
.@ACole_13_CTMD will announce tomorrow on http://ZAGSBLOG.com and @SNYtv between Illinois, Miami, SHU and Nova. Check ZAGS around 3 p.m.

http://twitter.com/AdamZagoria
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 07:12 PM   #17160
combes
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Originally Posted by Groundhogday View Post
Over the past 30+ years we have been above average the vast majority of seasons. Causality is a bit tenuous.
You are obviously determined to give little credit to some of the fine freshmen point guards we have had over the years. One does not have to be a star to have contributed early to good teams. We have had a number of those types of freshmen point guards. It has not been rare for Illinois to find some good ones over the years. Finding fault in their games is fine, but at least acknowledge that we have had a number of freshmen guards who were valuable members of good teams.

Is that so hard?
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 07:40 PM   #17161
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Originally Posted by combes View Post
You are obviously determined to give little credit to some of the fine freshmen point guards we have had over the years. One does not have to be a star to have contributed early to good teams. We have had a number of those types of freshmen point guards. It has not been rare for Illinois to find some good ones over the years. Finding fault in their games is fine, but at least acknowledge that we have had a number of freshmen guards who were valuable members of good teams.

Is that so hard?
Now you are moving the goal posts. Yes, we have had some fine freshmen guards, but fewer fine freshmen Point Guards. In terms of "good" teams led by freshman PG, the only teams that seem to meet your criteria are: (a) the 80-81 team with Holcomb, Smith and Johnson (all seniors) across the front line, with Tucker and Harper in the backcourt (NCAA second round); (b) Bruce Douglas in 1982-83, we won 21 games but were knocked off in the first round; and (c) Deron Williams and Dee Brown in 2002-03.

So I guess it can happen if we land a McDonald's All-American PG (Harper, Douglas, Brown) and/or a future NBA star (Deron Williams). Of course, should we be interested in advancing past the first weekend, then having a quality, experienced PG is still desirable (Rose excepted.)

As far as I can tell, the other examples brought up do not refer to situations in which the freshman guard was actually playing primarily PG (i.e. other guys led the team in assists.)

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Old Nov 11, 2012, 07:55 PM   #17162
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Over the past 30+ years we have been above average the vast majority of seasons. Causality is a bit tenuous.
no causality was stated. what's so hard to understand about the fact that there are lots of freshmen point guards every year having a very positive impact on their team. that includes starting on tourney teams. lots.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 08:19 PM   #17163
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Ready to play, yes. Ready to play PG, that is a different manner.

Richard Keene led that team in assists (113), then Garris (107) followed closely by TJ Wheeler (97).

That was actually a pretty talented team with Deon Thomas (Sr), Garris (Fr) and Keene (So) with a supporting cast of Shelley Clark (Jr), Robert Bennett (Sr), Tommy Michael (Sr), Hester (Fr), and TJ Wheeler (Sr). But we finished in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten and drew a tough first round game (losing to Georgetown.)

If we had a good, experienced PG that team might have made some noise. Unfortunately that was one of those teams where the sum was never as good as the parts.
Garris was the primary ball handler on that team. Assists don't necessarily tell you who is the PG. There are examples of teams whose lead assist person was not the PG.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 08:29 PM   #17164
Ron Zooks Barber
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Originally Posted by Groundhogday View Post
Ready to play, yes. Ready to play PG, that is a different manner.

Richard Keene led that team in assists (113), then Garris (107) followed closely by TJ Wheeler (97).

That was actually a pretty talented team with Deon Thomas (Sr), Garris (Fr) and Keene (So) with a supporting cast of Shelley Clark (Jr), Robert Bennett (Sr), Tommy Michael (Sr), Hester (Fr), and TJ Wheeler (Sr). But we finished in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten and drew a tough first round game (losing to Georgetown.)

If we had a good, experienced PG that team might have made some noise. Unfortunately that was one of those teams where the sum was never as good as the parts.
Yeah, if only Keene and Wheeler took the games seriously, then there might have been more success. I mean, when I am down at EIU the night before the BIG game of the year, and they are both down there partying and getting drunk....how can I consider their effort genuine. By the way, their performance in that game was one you might expect from two people with hangovers. I lost all respect for both of them after that.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 08:51 PM   #17165
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Originally Posted by DG1985 View Post
Garris was the primary ball handler on that team. Assists don't necessarily tell you who is the PG. There are examples of teams whose lead assist person was not the PG.
Not many. But there are plenty of examples where a non-point guard handles the ball a lot. Garris handled the ball a lot because he was really good at creating offense off the dribble, but he created offense more for himself than the rest of the team. He had a scorers mentality right from the start. He was a great player, but we probably would have benefited from pairing him with a QB-type point guard like Douglas.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DG1985 View Post
no causality was stated. what's so hard to understand about the fact that there are lots of freshmen point guards every year having a very positive impact on their team. that includes starting on tourney teams. lots.
Okay, there are LOTS of freshmen PG having a positive impact on their team. But MOST don't. Finding counter examples doesn't change the odds.

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Last edited by Groundhogday; Nov 11, 2012 at 08:55 PM.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 08:55 PM   #17166
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Originally Posted by Ron Zooks Barber View Post
Yeah, if only Keene and Wheeler took the games seriously, then there might have been more success. I mean, when I am down at EIU the night before the BIG game of the year, and they are both down there partying and getting drunk....how can I consider their effort genuine. By the way, their performance in that game was one you might expect from two people with hangovers. I lost all respect for both of them after that.
I didn't realize that Wheeler was into that sort of thing. Keene certainly underachieved during his career.

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Old Nov 11, 2012, 09:13 PM   #17167
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Where is the recruiting thread? It was somewhere around here a day or two ago! Anyone seen it?

Those of you so busy looking backwards turn around and look one day into the future, tell me what you see. Any chance Colbert picks the Illini? Did that ship sail some time ago? Hey BTF! What does your bud have to say about Colbert? I'm guessing if he's had nothing for you of late than we moved on from him at some point. No Colbert commit tomorrow? What next? Are we done for now and wait and see if a JUCO or late bloomer shows himself worth considering? I vote for the rollover but won't expect JG to do that until I hear it from him myself.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 09:43 PM   #17168
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:focus:PLEASE.
As momma always said. If you don't have something nice to say about the forum topic, don't say anything at all.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 09:47 PM   #17169
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Originally Posted by Groundhogday View Post
Now you are moving the goal posts. Yes, we have had some fine freshmen guards, but fewer fine freshmen Point Guards. In terms of "good" teams led by freshman PG, the only teams that seem to meet your criteria are: (a) the 80-81 team with Holcomb, Smith and Johnson (all seniors) across the front line, with Tucker and Harper in the backcourt (NCAA second round); (b) Bruce Douglas in 1982-83, we won 21 games but were knocked off in the first round; and (c) Deron Williams and Dee Brown in 2002-03.

So I guess it can happen if we land a McDonald's All-American PG (Harper, Douglas, Brown) and/or a future NBA star (Deron Williams). Of course, should we be interested in advancing past the first weekend, then having a quality, experienced PG is still desirable (Rose excepted.)

As far as I can tell, the other examples brought up do not refer to situations in which the freshman guard was actually playing primarily PG (i.e. other guys led the team in assists.)
Not to nitpick, but we've had fewer point guards period. In fact you will almost always have fewer point guards than guards total.

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Old Nov 11, 2012, 09:53 PM   #17170
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Originally Posted by AzIlliniFan View Post
Where is the recruiting thread? It was somewhere around here a day or two ago! Anyone seen it?

Those of you so busy looking backwards turn around and look one day into the future, tell me what you see. Any chance Colbert picks the Illini? Did that ship sail some time ago? Hey BTF! What does your bud have to say about Colbert? I'm guessing if he's had nothing for you of late than we moved on from him at some point. No Colbert commit tomorrow? What next? Are we done for now and wait and see if a JUCO or late bloomer shows himself worth considering? I vote for the rollover but won't expect JG to do that until I hear it from him myself.
Personally I think he's going Villanova and I'm totally fine with that, but I won't complain if on the slight chance he comes here. I think we need to bank the scholly to 2014 and optimally I think would be to take another 5th year senior for 2013 so the scholly isn't just sitting there.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 09:56 PM   #17171
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Originally Posted by AzIlliniFan View Post
Where is the recruiting thread? It was somewhere around here a day or two ago! Anyone seen it?

Those of you so busy looking backwards turn around and look one day into the future, tell me what you see. Any chance Colbert picks the Illini? Did that ship sail some time ago? Hey BTF! What does your bud have to say about Colbert? I'm guessing if he's had nothing for you of late than we moved on from him at some point. No Colbert commit tomorrow? What next? Are we done for now and wait and see if a JUCO or late bloomer shows himself worth considering? I vote for the rollover but won't expect JG to do that until I hear it from him myself.
well the last player followed by Colbert is Darrun Hilliard of Villanova. As twitter rules went a month ago, that would have made him a lock for 'Nova. But the new, post DJ twitter rules, means that he's not going to Villanova.

Unless the rules change.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 10:05 PM   #17172
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??? Now that John Groce is in his bass boat fishing the waters of the( BIG ) lakes. Can he land the big ones like Jimmy Collins or Bill Self?

If he wants to win, he must spend time on the water! Tight lines to you coach.

Games are won on the sofa with mom and dad
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 10:58 PM   #17173
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Originally Posted by illinitownie View Post
Personally I think he's going Villanova and I'm totally fine with that, but I won't complain if on the slight chance he comes here. I think we need to bank the scholly to 2014 and optimally I think would be to take another 5th year senior for 2013 so the scholly isn't just sitting there.
I like the way you are thinking. We'll see if JG is as smart as we are!

I've thought a lot lately about what the advantages are to taking a guy now rather than rolling the schollie with the expectation of a higher ranked recruit the following year. I don't have the time, desire, energy, or knowledge to do anything in the way of research to compare the 2 scenarios. I'm too lazy. But... I can see the possible benefits of taking a guy this year rather than wait because you've accumulated a years experience in the system. But if you have the expectation that next years guy will be a #30 recruit vs this years #60 recruit does that one year of experience make up for that disparity? The only way to know that would be to compare #60's contributions at the end of year 2 to #30's contributions at the end of year 1. I think most would go with #60 @ year 2 contributing more. But what about the next year, and after that? I think the benefits would shift towards player #30. What do you think?
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 11:25 PM   #17174
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I like the way you are thinking. We'll see if JG is as smart as we are!

I've thought a lot lately about what the advantages are to taking a guy now rather than rolling the schollie with the expectation of a higher ranked recruit the following year. I don't have the time, desire, energy, or knowledge to do anything in the way of research to compare the 2 scenarios. I'm too lazy. But... I can see the possible benefits of taking a guy this year rather than wait because you've accumulated a years experience in the system. But if you have the expectation that next years guy will be a #30 recruit vs this years #60 recruit does that one year of experience make up for that disparity? The only way to know that would be to compare #60's contributions at the end of year 2 to #30's contributions at the end of year 1. I think most would go with #60 @ year 2 contributing more. But what about the next year, and after that? I think the benefits would shift towards player #30. What do you think?
I've never worked through the various scenarios, but from what I've seen, coaches rarely want to roll over scholarships. Given how common transfers are these days, rolling over a scholarship has the potential to leave you short handed in the future.

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Old Nov 11, 2012, 11:44 PM   #17175
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Ready to play, yes. Ready to play PG, that is a different manner.

Richard Keene led that team in assists (113), then Garris (107) followed closely by TJ Wheeler (97).

That was actually a pretty talented team with Deon Thomas (Sr), Garris (Fr) and Keene (So) with a supporting cast of Shelley Clark (Jr), Robert Bennett (Sr), Tommy Michael (Sr), Hester (Fr), and TJ Wheeler (Sr). But we finished in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten and drew a tough first round game (losing to Georgetown.)

If we had a good, experienced PG that team might have made some noise. Unfortunately that was one of those teams where the sum was never as good as the parts.
Sorry, this is just inaccurate. I watched ever minute of that season, and he had the ball in his hands the majority of the time. He did have a scorer's mentality, but that doesn't disqualify you from being a good point guard. To say anything other than that he was THE point guard on that team and an excellent player is disingenuous, and looks like you're saying it to win your point.
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