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Bracketology - The Week of February 4th

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Old Feb 4, 2013, 04:58 PM   #26
Illinipopo
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Yes, Gonzaga Butler and Ohio St were good wins. But the loss to NW takes one of those away (IMO). I just refuse to get my hopes up about anything with this team. Has to be the most unsuccessful class to come through here in a long time. We just need new players. Players with toughness. This is a finesse, jump shooting team that does not like any physical contact. We're weak in the post, awful ball handlers, bad passers and our defense is worst in the BT.

Here we sit at 2-7 (2-8 after Indiana). Here's how I assume it will play out. @Minny (L), Purdue (W), @NW (W-but can see loss), PSU (W), @Mich (L), NEB (W), @Iowa (L-This isn't a good matchup for us) and finally @OSU (L). That would put us at 6-12 (19-13). I would assume that we would end up being 9 seed in BTT, go 1-1 in Tournament and finish at 20-14.

To me, no way obviously with 6-12 you get into NCAA, so the 20 Win method is out. No matter how you shake it, we're an NIT team.
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Old Feb 4, 2013, 05:00 PM   #27
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Bottom line is, that NW game will end up really really really hurting. That game was our season in my opinion
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Old Feb 4, 2013, 05:02 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Illinipopo View Post
Yes, Gonzaga Butler and Ohio St were good wins. But the loss to NW takes one of those away (IMO). I just refuse to get my hopes up about anything with this team. Has to be the most unsuccessful class to come through here in a long time. We just need new players. Players with toughness. This is a finesse, jump shooting team that does not like any physical contact. We're weak in the post, awful ball handlers, bad passers and our defense is worst in the BT.

Here we sit at 2-7 (2-8 after Indiana). Here's how I assume it will play out. @Minny (L), Purdue (W), @NW (W-but can see loss), PSU (W), @Mich (L), NEB (W), @Iowa (L-This isn't a good matchup for us) and finally @OSU (L). That would put us at 6-12 (19-13). I would assume that we would end up being 9 seed in BTT, go 1-1 in Tournament and finish at 20-14.

To me, no way obviously with 6-12 you get into NCAA, so the 20 Win method is out. No matter how you shake it, we're an NIT team.
Pretty good analysis IMO.

I still think our quality wins outweigh our bad losses:

Quality Wins --- #14 Butler, #10 Ohio State, #7 Gonzaga
Bad Losses --- @ Purdue, vs Northwestern

If we can avoid losing to inferior teams (PSU, NW, Neb), then we'll only have two bad losses on the year and 3+ quality wins.

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Old Feb 4, 2013, 05:02 PM   #29
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Had we beaten Purdue and Northwestern, we'd be sitting at 4-5 right now and doing ok. We blew it
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Old Feb 5, 2013, 05:08 AM   #30
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How?
Exactly? They must think we are going to win 20 games, but unfortunately I don't see that happening. This team has backpedaled ever since our first loss to Missouri. No fight!

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Old Feb 5, 2013, 09:28 AM   #31
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Illinois in the "First Four Out" in Joe Lunardi's updated bracket-

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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Old Feb 5, 2013, 12:40 PM   #32
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Hard to believe we are still even in the first four out category. We need to win 6 more games before the B1G tourney.
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Old Feb 5, 2013, 03:30 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by trevdv View Post
Pretty good analysis IMO.

I still think our quality wins outweigh our bad losses:

Quality Wins --- #14 Butler, #10 Ohio State, #7 Gonzaga
Bad Losses --- @ Purdue, vs Northwestern

If we can avoid losing to inferior teams (PSU, NW, Neb), then we'll only have two bad losses on the year and 3+ quality wins.
I don't dispute that the Gonzaga and Butler wins were big in our little minds, but I remain convinced both of those teams would struggle playing a B1G schedule. While Gonzaga plays a very tough NC schedule, their conference consists of very weak teams. Butler has two tough (three if you count the Zags) NC games, and I think their conference schedule is a little stronger than the Zags, but not much. Both of their teams have made smart decisions by playing a tough NC schedule, because they knew without it they will never get an at-large bid. Both good teams, but I don't see either one as being good enough to be ranked as high as they are, which translates (at least in my little world where everyone agrees with me and the Chief still represents My University) into the wins are not really "high quality wins".

I think our bad losses (NW & Purdue) don't offset the good wins . . . .but I'm sorta contrarian. Of course, I could just be wrong too . . .

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Old Feb 5, 2013, 04:36 PM   #34
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I think the reason we are still being considered is the strength of the big 10 this year.

Even the loss to Mich St was only by 5 points. Although losses are suppose to count, that loss by only 5 may have actually lessened the blow. A loss by 15 would have really killed us. NW and Purdue losses were larger than life though. Personally I think we will be out even with wins over NW, Penn St, and Purdue. I think NIT is a good possibillity though.

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Old Feb 5, 2013, 04:42 PM   #35
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So does 20-12 (7-11) get us in? assuming we lose to the remaining ranked teams and beat the unranked teams? or do we need a win against IU/Minn/Mich/OSU?
I believe 20-12 (7-11) can get us in (last 4 in), but then it comes down to the conference tournys around the country. Any upsets and we get bumped. If we can somehow get to 20 wins we'll be rooting for the favorites to win their respective conf tournys.

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Old Feb 5, 2013, 06:25 PM   #36
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I am pretty sure our making the dance is COMPLETELY dependant on no upsets in the conference tourneys. If there are a few upsets there, we will be NIT (Not in Tournament).

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Old Feb 5, 2013, 06:40 PM   #37
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The Horizon, Mid American, A10, MVC, West Coast, conference USA and Mountain West could all screw us as of today. Heck if teams from he SEC or ACC do the impossible, and they end up winning heir conferences auto bids its bad news for us if it happens with our current record. Even NW, PUrdue, Znebraska could grab the fictitional 7 th bid from out league leaving us on the outside looking in. We make our own destiny though, and we could turn it around before it gets any further.

In all honesty our resume is still better than the teams who could be displaced from an auto bid like Belmont for example if they don't win the conference tournament. Unfortunately too many more losses hurts our resume, and we might not look as good as teams like BYU, Murray State, Akron, Southern Miss, etc... A lot of factors, but we are still in the area of being in he tournament which is good enough for me.

Davidson might not make it even though I think they're a top 50 team in terms of talent if they don't win the conference tournament despite dominating their league up to this point. I like the Wildcats, but their non conference record is going to kill them if they are on the bubble come selection Sunday.

Last edited by zoggle101; Feb 5, 2013 at 06:48 PM.
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Old Feb 8, 2013, 06:49 AM   #38
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Illinois an 8 seed in Jerry Palm's updated bracket-

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
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Old Feb 8, 2013, 09:03 AM   #39
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Illinois an 11 seed in Joe Lunardi's update bracket-

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
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Old Feb 8, 2013, 09:10 AM   #40
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For obvious reasons, I'd take an 11 seed over an 8 seed any day.
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Old Feb 8, 2013, 09:19 AM   #41
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I get it, Miami beat Duke. But I'm really not feeling or understanding the 1/2 seed they get.
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Old Feb 8, 2013, 09:22 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by Dan View Post
Illinois an 11 seed in Joe Lunardi's update bracket-

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Am I reading that right, it puts us in the play in game?
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Old Feb 8, 2013, 09:22 AM   #43
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I get it, Miami beat Duke. But I'm really not feeling or understanding the 1/2 seed they get.
They haven't lost any games this year with a full roster. I think they are for real.

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Old Feb 8, 2013, 01:53 PM   #44
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I'm assuming the B1G gets 7 teams.

We'll have a better resume than Purdue, and Iowa. Both have a tough stretch of games to end the season. I can't see Iowa getting to 9 wins much less their magic number of 10 wins for an autobid. There's no way Purdue gets to 11 or 12 wins which in my opinion would of been their magic numbers to be considered for an at large bid which is pretty ridiculous considering they'd be a top 6 B1G team with a record like that. Of course they didn't help themselves out losing a bunch of close non conference games even though the majority aside of a 3 point road loss to Eastern Michigan weren't horrible losses. You throw Kelsey Barlow on his team, and they would have 3-5 more wins placing them firmly on the bubble without having the task of going 12-6 in conference just for one of the last four at large bids. All that said, Purdue is playing bad ball right now which is a reason why our fans are saying they suck even though they beat us.

The only way we don't get in is if we only end up with 7 wins, Iowa gets 9 wins in conference play, Purdue finishes with 11-12 wins during league play, we lose in the first round of the tournament, and Iowa plays Purdue in the BTT championship game.
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Old Feb 8, 2013, 05:57 PM   #45
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Jerry Palm :

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

1 Miami (FL)+1
16 Long Beach-1

8 Illinois+1
9 Oregon-1

5 San Diego State+2
12 _play-in_

4 Louisville-
13 South Dakota State*

Kansas the 2-seed. I never want an 8 or 9, but we'd take that, right!?
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Old Feb 8, 2013, 06:58 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by JSpence View Post
Jerry Palm :

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

1 Miami (FL)+1
16 Long Beach-1

8 Illinois+1
9 Oregon-1

5 San Diego State+2
12 _play-in_

4 Louisville-
13 South Dakota State*

Kansas the 2-seed. I never want an 8 or 9, but we'd take that, right!?
In a heartbeat. It almost doesn't matter who we play. It's all about us to be honest. When we're on we're competitive with anybody, and when we not...

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Old Feb 9, 2013, 09:52 AM   #47
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The Case for Illinois in the NCAA - Body of Work

Illinois has defeated 4 of the teams in the Top 15 of the USA/ESPN Poll. The Top 15 have only 21 wins against other Top 15 Teams. Indiana has 3 wins, seven teams have 2 wins, 4 teams have 1 win and Florida, Louisville and Creighton have no wins. The Top 15 have 48 losses. Illinois gets credit for 4 of those or one twelfth.

Illinois has defeated 3 teams in the Top 10. The Top 10 have only 9 wins against other Top 10 teams. Indiana and MSU each have 2 wins, 5 teams have 1 win and Florida, Gonzaga, and Syracuse have no wins. The Top 10 have 24 losses. Illinois gets credit for 3 of those or one eighth.

Illinois has lost 8 games. 2 to Top 10 teams, 4 to Top 20 teams. The remaining 4 losses - 2 to Wisconsin (who should be rated and has beat #1) and a loss each to Purdue and Northwestern (Who beat Minnesota and TCU who beat Kansas).

Although they have been very unpredictable and frustrating, how can Illinois not be included in a tournament that includes 68 teams?
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Old Feb 9, 2013, 10:56 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by EllderIlliniFan View Post
The Case for Illinois in the NCAA - Body of Work

Illinois has defeated 4 of the teams in the Top 15 of the USA/ESPN Poll. The Top 15 have only 21 wins against other Top 15 Teams. Indiana has 3 wins, seven teams have 2 wins, 4 teams have 1 win and Florida, Louisville and Creighton have no wins. The Top 15 have 48 losses. Illinois gets credit for 4 of those or one twelfth.

Illinois has defeated 3 teams in the Top 10. The Top 10 have only 9 wins against other Top 10 teams. Indiana and MSU each have 2 wins, 5 teams have 1 win and Florida, Gonzaga, and Syracuse have no wins. The Top 10 have 24 losses. Illinois gets credit for 3 of those or one eighth.

Illinois has lost 8 games. 2 to Top 10 teams, 4 to Top 20 teams. The remaining 4 losses - 2 to Wisconsin (who should be rated and has beat #1) and a loss each to Purdue and Northwestern (Who beat Minnesota and TCU who beat Kansas).

Although they have been very unpredictable and frustrating, how can Illinois not be included in a tournament that includes 68 teams?
If the field was selected today they would. 4 more wins and lock it.
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Old Feb 10, 2013, 07:04 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by EllderIlliniFan View Post
The Case for Illinois in the NCAA - Body of Work

Illinois has defeated 4 of the teams in the Top 15 of the USA/ESPN Poll. The Top 15 have only 21 wins against other Top 15 Teams. Indiana has 3 wins, seven teams have 2 wins, 4 teams have 1 win and Florida, Louisville and Creighton have no wins. The Top 15 have 48 losses. Illinois gets credit for 4 of those or one twelfth.

Illinois has defeated 3 teams in the Top 10. The Top 10 have only 9 wins against other Top 10 teams. Indiana and MSU each have 2 wins, 5 teams have 1 win and Florida, Gonzaga, and Syracuse have no wins. The Top 10 have 24 losses. Illinois gets credit for 3 of those or one eighth.

Illinois has lost 8 games. 2 to Top 10 teams, 4 to Top 20 teams. The remaining 4 losses - 2 to Wisconsin (who should be rated and has beat #1) and a loss each to Purdue and Northwestern (Who beat Minnesota and TCU who beat Kansas).

Although they have been very unpredictable and frustrating, how can Illinois not be included in a tournament that includes 68 teams?
There's no doubt that we're among the 68 best teams in the country. The problem is, unless we win the BTT, we're competing for one of the 37 at-large berths. Every year there are a number of teams left out that have better resumes than some of the 31 automatic qualifiers. We might be one of them this year.

A week ago I was skeptical when some folks said we would get in with a 7-11 Big Ten record. The win vs Indiana changes that in my mind. We go 4-4 down the stretch, regardless of who the wins and losses come against, and win at least one BTT game, and I think we're in. We get to 8 or more Big Ten wins and I think we're a lock, regardless of what happens in the BTT.

Heck, we might sneak in there with a 7-11 record even if we lose in the first round of the BTT. You never know. I'd be willing to bet that most of the selection committee members saw the game vs Indiana. The ones that didn't have seen highlights by now. It will still be relatively fresh in their minds. Given our other big wins, I think that one game might be the one that puts us over the top.
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Old Feb 10, 2013, 10:42 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Illinipopo View Post
Come on. Lets not do this to ourselves. After Thursday we will be 2-8 in Big Ten and would have to go 6-2 the rest of the way. We know this team does not have the mental makeup to do this. We are playing for Nit, period
Let's do it to ourselves anyway:laugh:
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