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KenPom preseason rankings are up - #57 Illinois projected to go 15-15 (7-11)

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Old Nov 3, 2011, 07:52 PM   #51
illini80
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There will be a lot of unhappy people if that comes true. I can see us as low as 6th and as high as 4th. I think 4th would be a very successful season with this team. I also think if Sam can stay healthy we could challenge a spot higher. If he's not, we may struggle to make 6th.
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Old Nov 3, 2011, 11:41 PM   #52
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ESPN Magazine ranks Illini at 34.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 06:26 AM   #53
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Even though these KenPom preseason rankings are sort of meaningless, it still is fun to click on Illinois-->2005 and see all those wins under the schedule!
Yeah. Remember those days? Yeah... That was awesome.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 07:18 AM   #54
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Yeah. Remember those days? Yeah... That was awesome.
Why are you sad? Because Illinois will never have a great season again? Have hope, man!
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 07:27 AM   #55
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This really does seem about right. Until we actually see what the new guys, mixed with a couple of retuners can do against top competition, I am keeping my expectations on the lower end. If we come out and start to beat top teams, in and out of conference, then I will start to raise my hopes for this group of players. As for now, to many unknowns for me to project any kind of season results.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 07:30 AM   #56
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This really does seem about right. Until we actually see what the new guys, mixed with a couple of retuners can do against top competition, I am keeping my expectations on the lower end. If we come out and start to beat top teams, in and out of conference, then I will start to raise my hopes for this group of players. As for now, to many unknowns for me to project any kind of season results.
This is dumb. Don't you know that November is the time for sky-high hopes and expectations, no matter what?!

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Old Nov 4, 2011, 07:32 AM   #57
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Honestly, I hope the team sees this and gets mad about it. They need to play with a chip on their collective shoulders.

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Old Nov 4, 2011, 07:34 AM   #58
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This is dumb. Don't you know that November is the time for sky-high hopes and expectations, no matter what?!

Same thing for football in August! I had high expectations, but I was cautious with them. Then they do something silly and exceed my high expectations only to stab me in the heart with some fragmented pieces of my shattered BCS dreams.

Basketball will not let me down.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 07:54 AM   #59
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Honestly, I hope the team sees this and gets mad about it. They need to play with a chip on their collective shoulders.
There is nothing to really get mad about it as far as the origin. This is a math/computer model. As far as proving they can do better, I hope they have already more motivation within them than needing to see a computer model.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 07:59 AM   #60
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There is nothing to really get mad about it as far as the origin. This is a math/computer model. As far as proving they can do better, I hope they have already more motivation within them than needing to see a computer model.
Occupy Siebel!!

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Old Nov 4, 2011, 08:06 AM   #61
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The program must assume some neutral player fills the void left by a departing senior. I wonder how they calculate that. Do they assume an average college player? An average college freshman? An average college 1st year starter?

Their input for a new player would have a big effect on the accuracy of the projection for teams with large scale turnover like Illinois.

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Old Nov 4, 2011, 08:10 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Obelix View Post
There is nothing to really get mad about it as far as the origin. This is a math/computer model. As far as proving they can do better, I hope they have already more motivation within them than needing to see a computer model.
I think we should get together a posse and beat up math.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 08:38 AM   #63
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Mizzou at #14? This is a laugher.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 08:55 AM   #64
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I think this is a new addition to Pomeroy's site this year, but a cool page:

http://kenpom.com/history.php?t=Illinois

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Old Nov 4, 2011, 09:25 AM   #65
KJKobs
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Sweet. KenPom is predicting another United Center loss for the Illini (vs. UNLV)
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 09:52 AM   #66
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Only 8 non-conference wins? I don't buy it. I'm sure that Weber will have this up on the board for motivation.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 10:05 AM   #67
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Another bit of info from Pomeroy's blog:

Quote:
So beginning this season, you’ll need to pay $20 per year to access the data on the site. What does your subscription get? Well, for starters, you should know that the main ratings page and the blog will still be freely available to the public. However, if you want to drill down into team details or see any of the other information that brings insight to your college hoops experience, you’ll need to subscribe. And while the blog will still be on the free side, much of its content will refer to stuff behind the pay wall.

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Old Nov 4, 2011, 11:06 AM   #68
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Where did this myth get started? Not jumping on you Dayton but this seems to have become some wierd rationalization amongst people as a way to explain what happened when we played them. All of their best and returning players from last year played. They had 4 players who did not play 2 who will have to sit out this year because they transfered in so niether of which played last year for them nor will they play this year and 2 freshmen who weren't cleared to make the trip in time, Garry Browne and Jabari Hinds. Not saying that it means anything that we pounded them in an exhibition but at the same time it had nothing to do with them missing players and especially not any good returning players.


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They were absent several players IIRC.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 12:08 PM   #69
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My personal guess would be that we're more likely to win >15 games than to win 15 or fewer, but I guess I see more than 20 wins as unlikely, so my pick would be something like 17-13 or so. Easy for me to imagine how we could deviate substantially from that total though. What's your guess? And what would the odds have to be for you to bet that we'd lose at least 15 regular season games?
Exactly. I posted somewhere else that I have no idea what to expect of this team and that I thought anything between 14 and 24 wins was realistic. I think 17-20 is more likely than 14-16, but I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see us finish at or below 0.500 for the season.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 02:32 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by jmontgo3 View Post
http://kenpom.com/

Usual caveats apply:



Has the Illini at 57th overall, 15-15 overall record, 7-11 in conference for a 10th place ranking.
I don't think these rankings and predictions mean much especially with our team this year. We have a bunch of young players and no site can predict how our freshman will play or how big a leap guys like Head and Leonard may or may not make.

Assuming the reports are true and these new players play hard and are coachable than Bruce Weber will have a lot more impact on what happens this year than in years past. We will get to see how good a coach he is in terms of player development based on how these kids develop this year and next.

The loafers and headcases are gone and i think Bruce is a good coach so we should be a team that improves throughout the year. Hopefully its drastic improvement and we surprise a lot of people and make the tournament. We need to some good momentum going into next season when we may be poised to make a serious run.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 04:06 PM   #71
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whoa,

Big ten gets a lot of respect in this ranking system without even playing a game.

also, Nebraska ahead of Illinois? he's got some wrong stats factoring in. just the recruits we have gotten over the last few years already springs us ahead of some teams here. We are definitely no worst that 6th and can overacheive as good as 3rd.
I will be severely disappointed with a finish lower than 3rd.
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Old Nov 4, 2011, 05:14 PM   #72
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Exactly. I posted somewhere else that I have no idea what to expect of this team and that I thought anything between 14 and 24 wins was realistic. I think 17-20 is more likely than 14-16, but I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see us finish at or below 0.500 for the season.
Sounds like we are on the same page.

10/14/2011

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Without a single player on the team that is a proven college player of high caliber, I find it hard to predict a great season for Illinois. There simply is no position on the floor where you can confidently say we will be better than our opponent, night in and night out.

It would not shock me if we won 12-15 games all season.

OTOH, we have a lot of athleticism and if it gels quickly and each of the starters make a huge leap from where they were last season, we could make the tournament and win 23-24 games.

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Old Nov 5, 2011, 09:15 AM   #73
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Why are you sad? Because Illinois will never have a great season again? Have hope, man!
Nah, I just miss the hopefulness of those preseasons... when we didn't worry about where the next awful, mind-boggling loss would come from, and when preseason prognostications were picking Illinois to contend for both conference and national titles, not to go 15-15.
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Old Nov 5, 2011, 10:45 AM   #74
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I would set the over under at 18 or 19.

If we win 15 or less (barring major injuries), I would officially be ready to see the end of the Weber era. He has the players he wants. They appear to be motivated and talented, even though they are inexperienced.

If he does a good job preparing them, and they consistently improve, 21-22 wins is possible. I am hopeful that the season moves in this direction.

Expecting them to finish 3rd in the B1G, as some do, is a serious reach. Our B1G schedule is brutal, compared to other schools which is like starting with 1 extra loss. I'm hopeful, but I don't understand why any one would expect it. I would be excited about a 10 - 8 outcome in conference based on our schedule.

Clearly a 9 -4 non con and a 7 -11 B1G is possible. I would be very disappointed, but at this point, I think it is more likely than a season with 23 plus wins.

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Old Nov 5, 2011, 10:53 AM   #75
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I would set the over under at 18 or 19.

If we win 15 or less (barring major injuries), I would officially be ready to see the end of the Weber era. He has the players he wants. They appear to be motivated and talented, even though they are inexperienced.

If he does a good job preparing them, and they consistently improve, 21-22 wins is possible. I am hopeful that the season moves in this direction.

Expecting them to finish 3rd in the B1G, as some do, is a serious reach. Our B1G schedule is brutal, compared to other schools which is like starting with 1 extra loss. I'm hopeful, but I don't understand why any one would expect it. I would be excited about a 10 - 8 outcome in conference based on our schedule.

Clearly a 9 -4 non con and a 7 -11 B1G is possible. I would be very disappointed, but at this point, I think it is more likely than a season with 23 plus wins.
The key is how we finish vs. our overall record in my opinion. If at season end, we are seeing huge improvement and player development and a growing excitement about our team and the improvement of our young players, the record won't mean so much.

OTOH, if we start strong and falter by midseason with unexpected and close losses piling up, then we will see the seat heating up for Bruce.

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