Expectations

[illini80]

Originally Posted by Sure Shot

I actually agree with this, but I would have agreed with it even more if we had hired circa-last-year Frank Haith.

It's a funny old game, and I'm more inclined to decide based on what I see Groce do at Illinois than what Groce did at Ohio. There's an argument to be made that high-major talent is fundamentally more capable of playing the way Groce wants to play than MAC-level talent. We'll see.

This is where I stand. Wait and see what he does. I have very little in the way of expectations until I see how he uses his talent. I hope he is as willing to adapt to the players as what I read. I am also concerned about whether his style of play will translate to wins at the top of this league, but it clearly will be more entertaining to watch than what we have seen recently. Right now I'm just ready to start watching some basketball again!!!

[jasonu]

Originally Posted by justsomedude

We still have the 2nd most 4* + athletes of any team in the B1G, and we have another two experienced guys that were ranked in the top 100 by some services. We are returning more minutes and scoring that pretty much everyone in conference except IU. We should not be in nearly the hole IU was.

I have no love lost for Weber, but Groce took over a team with a top 15 (top 10 by some) group of rising sophomores, and a top 50 recruit locked in 2013. There is no excuse to compare that situation to an IU situation where there were zero 4 stars and they could barely field a team, they had no help.

We probably should get over the star rankings for current players. For example, we just lost our best player, a 3* recruit. That star logic doesn't work if the players don't live up to expectations or clean up their flaws.

[Botb9]

I expect some bad play, interspersed with periods of rip-roaring feel-good old-time Illini basketball. NIT-bound this year, NCAA-bound next.

[bleedsorangenblue]

If we end up 6th or even 7th in the league, we have a chance to make the tournament. Even so, we better have some signature wins and few to no bad losses. This is the definition of a bubble team. I just hope we are on the right side of it this year.

[Illiniwek06]

Originally Posted by jasonu

We probably should get over the star rankings for current players. For example, we just lost our best player, a 3* recruit. That star logic doesn't work if the players don't live up to expectations or clean up their flaws.

+1.

[Monte Carlo]

Originally Posted by jasonu

We probably should get over the star rankings for current players. For example, we just lost our best player, a 3* recruit. That star logic doesn't work if the players don't live up to expectations or clean up their flaws.

I assume you are referring to Meyers Leonard as our best player that we just lost. The thing that confuses me is that Scout has him as a 5* and Rivals a 4*, so not sure where 3* came from or if you are referring to another player?

[UIUC2008]

Originally Posted by bleedsorangenblue

If we end up 6th or even 7th in the league, we have a chance to make the tournament. Even so, we better have some signature wins and few to no bad losses. This is the definition of a bubble team. I just hope we are on the right side of it this year.

This is one of the things I am expecting to improve with Groce and a new coach. Weber's style of play/coaching was extremely vulnerable to lesser talent. Weber's style slowed down the game and in many instances played away from our strengths. When watching the horrible losses over the last 2 to 3 years all I can remember thinking is how much bigger, stronger, and faster we were and yet we did nothing to take advantage of it. With Groce's style Im expecting us to play into our strengths WAY more. Hopefully we can avoid the terrible, resume killing, firmly on the bubble type losses while still holding on to a couple key big wins (which we surprisingly had some good ones the last couple of years).

[Sure Shot]

Originally Posted by Monte Carlo

I assume you are referring to Meyers Leonard as our best player that we just lost. The thing that confuses me is that Scout has him as a 5* and Rivals a 4*, so not sure where 3* came from or if you are referring to another player?

Yeah that confused me too.

There is talent on this team, no question about it.

[justsomedude]

Originally Posted by jasonu

We probably should get over the star rankings for current players. For example, we just lost our best player, a 3* recruit. That star logic doesn't work if the players don't live up to expectations or clean up their flaws.

While I agree by senior year you probably know what someone is independent of their rankings, there's loads of evidence that say the 4*'s as a group contribute much, much more than 3*'s do. This is especially true with freshman that didn't play much turning sophomores. 51 - 100 guys generally are role players freshman year that can contribute much greater sophomore year. We have 4 of those guys.

Meyers was the second highest ranked recruit of the BW era. Our best three players last year were all top 50 RSCI, and our highest ranked players.

[Seyton]

I expect a good season to be honest - better than most are likely anticipating. There are good players on this roster. I think a new style and refreshed approach will do wonders for the returning players and the incoming players should be mixed in nicely. I see no reason why this team can't be at least 18-12 with the potential to be better record wise.

[bjSnipsNSnaps]

I honestly don't see how we'll be better than last year, unless Groce's new system is magically well-suited to our players straight out of the gate. I'm expecting about 8th in the league and no tourney. Not having Meyers is really going to hurt. This is the lowest my expectations have been in a long time, but I'm perfectly ok with giving Groce a few years to work things out gradually.

[OldSchoolIllini]

Originally Posted by bjSnipsNSnaps

I honestly don't see how we'll be better than last year, unless Groce's new system is magically well-suited to our players straight out of the gate. I'm expecting about 8th in the league and no tourney. Not having Meyers is really going to hurt. This is the lowest my expectations have been in a long time, but I'm perfectly ok with giving Groce a few years to work things out gradually.

I guess my question is how could you not see it getting better?! We nearly all the same pieces...sure ML is gone..but he was rarely ever a key component of our games. Sure we would feed him, but it would always stop..so I'm thinking that we are going to do better and actually make it into the NCAA tourney. Call me crazy, but I think JG's system would work for nearly all of our guards. DJ might struggle, but BP, JB, TA should all thrive in this type of environment. I'm expecting good things coming this year and will consider it a bad season if we just make it to the NIT.

[Illiniwek06]

Originally Posted by OldSchoolIllini

I guess my question is how could you not see it getting better?! We nearly all the same pieces...sure ML is gone..but he was rarely ever a key component of our games. Sure we would feed him, but it would always stop..so I'm thinking that we are going to do better and actually make it into the NCAA tourney. Call me crazy, but I think JG's system would work for nearly all of our guards. DJ might struggle, but BP, JB, TA should all thrive in this type of environment. I'm expecting good things coming this year and will consider it a bad season if we just make it to the NIT.

You may have answered your own question. We return nearly all the same pieces, minus an NBA lottery pick. That team went 17-15 last year. Further, the rest of the B1G also either returns a ton of talent, adds new talent, or both.

Also, I hope the new system works for the personnel, but which of these guys is the PG Groce wants? http://www.illinihq.com/sports/illin...es-system.html

[justsomedude]

Originally Posted by bjSnipsNSnaps

I honestly don't see how we'll be better than last year, unless Groce's new system is magically well-suited to our players straight out of the gate. I'm expecting about 8th in the league and no tourney. Not having Meyers is really going to hurt. This is the lowest my expectations have been in a long time, but I'm perfectly ok with giving Groce a few years to work things out gradually.

I think there are some positives to hope for

- Your PG now has a year under his belt and many guys have made rather large sophomore leaps

- You return a ton of minutes and generally players get better as they age.

- While we do lose Meyers, and that's a huge loss, we were unbelievably inept at getting him the ball last year which contributed to a lot of the losses.

- It was clear the team was not the same down the stretch. I happen to believe they overperformed to get to 15-3, however the last 14 games were not representative of the talent on the team. There was reported turmoil on the staff, conflict between classes, insecurity permeating through the program, and increased scrutiny from fans. It all mixed together in a terribly negative way.

[justsomedude]

Originally Posted by Illiniwek06

You may have answered your own question. We return nearly all the same pieces, minus an NBA lottery pick. That team went 17-15 last year. Further, the rest of the B1G also either returns a ton of talent, adds new talent, or both.

Also, I hope the new system works for the personnel, but which of these guys is the PG Groce wants? http://www.illinihq.com/sports/illin...es-system.html

tOSU, MSU, Wisconsin, Michigan and Purdue all lose more than us (athough some should get more help from Freshman).

Klee has said Abrams is the type of PG Groce likes, more a Combo.

[Foo G]

The best thing we're likely to see this year is competition.
Everyone is going to have to earn their minutes and their spot in the rotation.
Groce essentially has nothing to lose this season by switching things up if someone is not producing or putting forth maximum effort.
That is basically what killed us last year.
Bruce settled on his rotation and wrote it in stone.
The competition for playing time disappeared and guys got complacent.
I also think that we're going to see a different Joe Bertrand this year.
Up until now it seems like he's been holding back, and maybe playing scared, for lack of a better term.
He's got good instincts and fluid moves, which should benefit him at a faster pace.
Throw in two senior guards that should feel like they have something to prove and will hopefully be dead set on an NCAA tournament appearance, and this team could really be primed to turn some heads.

[Illiniwek06]

Originally Posted by justsomedude

tOSU, MSU, Wisconsin, Michigan and Purdue all lose more than us (athough some should get more help from Freshman).

Klee has said Abrams is the type of PG Groce likes, more a Combo.

I hear you, but IMO, the net effect of the guys leaving/recruits added for MSU, Michigan will net out positively. I think it was huge for Michigan to have Burke come back. Add GRobIII and McGary to Burke and Hardaway, and I think that's a damn good squad. MSU is adding Gary Harris and two 4 stars to Appling, Dawson, and Payne. OSU still will be tough - I think Deshaun Thomas is in line for a monster season. Purdue has a top 20 recruiting class, according to ESPN/Rivals. Wisky always seems to lose key guys, but then play well during the season. And now they add a 5 star recruit (#13 overall per Rivals). They've never finished lower than 4th in the B1G under Bo. I always underrate them preseason, so perhaps I'm being more optimistic on them than I should be.

Regardless, my overall point is that, despite a new system and energy with Groce and company, I'm guardedly optimistic for the season. I see this year's team as a bubble team that may sneak into the tourney with a few quality wins (and hopefully no embarrassing losses). I'm expecting a competitive (i.e. no embarrassing blowouts/rollovers) team this season, and hoping for more success in the future.

[IlliniRyan13]

I think the one thing that can't be overvalued here is that Groce seems like he's going to make playing basketball fun again for a lot of these guys. I don't think that can be overvalued especially when talking about kids.

It was so painful to watch this team play, especially on the offensive end where they would just stand around, get frustrated, and fall apart game after game. One thing we won't be doing this year is standing around. Might it be ugly at times in the new system, sure. But can they really be worse on offense than last year?

Plus you have a nice mix of sophs and seniors on this team with a RS JR in Bertrand. If Abrams, Henry, and Shaw show improvement and DJ gives you a decent season no reason to think this team won't be 5-6 in B10 and on tourney bubble. Lot of ifs, but reasons for hope in my eyes.

I still think there's talent on this team that just hadn't been taught nor coached properly past couple years.

[Silkysmooth]

I am totally with those that expect to make the tourney. We all expected to make the tourney last year and Leonard was a surprise. Weber was fired for not making it. I sense a disturbing double standard developing on this board. This team has two senior guards and more than enough returning talent to have a good season. Groce was hired to improve the situation... Not have sympathizers protect him until 2015. The players are here and the time is now!

Please do not compare this to Indiana. It compares much closer to Bill Self

[jhayton]

Originally Posted by Silkysmooth

I am totally with those that expect to make the tourney. We all expected to make the tourney last year and Leonard was a surprise. Weber was fired for not making it. I sense a disturbing double standard developing on this board. This team has two senior guards and more than enough returning talent to have a good season. Groce was hired to improve the situation... Not have sympathizers protect him until 2015. The players are here and the time is now!

Please do not compare this to Indiana. It compares much closer to Bill Self

No double standard, just understanding that building a program takes time.

Weber was fired because his teams consistently underperformed. Is it safe to say that we have the talent to make it to the tournament? I think that answer is undoubtedly, yes. There aren't 64 teams more talented than UI. I still question the drive and commitment to excellence on the current roster. Not saying it isn't there, but I don't necessarily see it. That is something we as fans and JG as a coach can't give to the players, they have to make the conscious decision to give it their all 100% of the time and play as a team.

There are to many variables to forecast next seasons team as a tournament team. We still largely don't know what our highly touted recruiting class from last year can do. The talent is there, but we just don't know.

If we are to saddle JG to BW's recruits then we aren't giving him a fair chance. That would be like saying Charlie Weiss was a great coach because he had immediate success with Willingham's recruits (obviously not the case).

Will I be surprised to see us make the tourney this year? No, but I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't. Same goes for year 2 of the JG era. I will expect to see improvement in both the players individually and as a team from beginning of the year to the end, eventually that will lead to improvement in the program. Which in my mind means we will be ready to challenge for league titles within a few years (2015), but to expect only success (tournament berths) in my mind isn't giving JG a fair shake at the job.

BW certainly didn't leave the cupboard bare, but we don't know if this talent will fit JG's system.

With that being said I still think we could be the surprise team in the BIG this year, but I could just as easily see us still wallowing in the bottom half as well.

My expectations for next year could be surmised as genuinely ambivalent, or maybe I just don't have expectations I can't really decide.

Sorry for the novel.

[kbo007]

Originally Posted by illinipicker

Groce better be a damn good recruiter because he is not a good enough coach to win in the Big 10 with mediocre talent. I will be shocked if he lasts as long as Weber and in the end will not last as long nor have as good a resume as Weber by the time he leaves.

We traded down IMO! Gonna pay the price for it too!

I am saving this quote to shove it in your grill at a later date. Count on it.

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Originally Posted by Silkysmooth

Please do not compare this to Indiana. It compares much closer to Bill Self

It's not close to either of those. IU had nothing, Self left an ideal team with 3 PGs that was poised to be a great team. That's not what we have now.

[justsomedude]

Originally Posted by WesterveltVictoryCigar

It's not close to either of those. IU had nothing, Self left an ideal team with 3 PGs that was poised to be a great team. That's not what we have now.

Absolutely, and there is a world of difference between a 3 win team (IU) and Selfs first team that was a 1 seed. I'm not sure about 3 PGs, but that team had experience and fit. Frank was a top 5 PG, great bigs in Marcus, cook and arch, Bradford, serge, Lucas. 4 McD AA's on that team surrounded by tough role players.

[stevo99]

As far as 5 yr expectations, back in the top 20 regularly and the Hall's return to 'The House of Paign' is pretty realistic.

As for this year:

- Consistency from Brandon Paul. There are multiple 2013 mocks that don't even have BP getting drafted. That's unreal considering BP's skillset. I think he has poor mans DWade upside in the NBA. It's time to bring it every night.

- Natural progression from all the underclassmen especially Abrams. Abrams is a perfect fit for this SOP and he's pretty clearly a leader judging by last year. It's time for him to start to claim a much bigger role.

I think we're making the tournament if these 2 things happen.

[Mike]

IMO if Groce can fix some of our guys weaknesses plus gets them playing smarter basketball, we could 'potentially' be solid next year. We had big problems winning last year, but we have the talent to win if we can get the pieces to fit.

I understand the pessimism, but if Grose is a great coach he'll challenge our guys to refuse to have another season like we just had. The funny thing about failure is that it sometimes leads to sucess...