Paying the price for recruiting shortfalls

[Groundhogday]

To put things in perspective, I thought it might be worthwhile to look at the last two years of Zook recruiting (2010, 2011) by position. Let me start with the secondary.

2009: Aikens (2 star); Hopkins (3 star); Thrash (2 star); Green (4 star); Hawthorne (4 star WR); Hull (3 star WR)
2010: Rock (3 star ATH); Days (2 star); Henry (2 star); E. Thomas (3 star)
2011: V. Cooper (3 star ATH); Kirby (4 star); Grimes (3 star); North (2 star); E. Spence (2 star)

15 DB recruited, including everyone tried in the secondary
-5 washouts, for various reasons (Aikens, Hopkins, Thrash, V. Cooper, Kirby)
-3 Never played DB, moved to other positions where they are contributing little (Rock, Days, Grimes)
-2 backups who have not shown much to date (E. Spence, North)
-1 JC transfer who used up his eligibility (Henry)
=
4 players (Green, Hawthorne, Hull, E. Thomas), and two will use up their eligibility this year.

From the 2010 & 2011 classes, we might have signed one DB capable of developing into a solid B1G starter (Earnest Thomas). Is it any wonder our secondary is struggling? Our DB recruiting over Zook's last two years was a complete disaster.

[AHSIllini32]

Not surprising in the least bit...unless you just want to complain about Beckman sucking.

I think Spence could develop into a quality player for us too. He's played decently for being thrust into a ton of playing time.

[quhawks12]

Thank you. And isn't Days a washout too? Thought he transferred?

[quhawks12]

Originally Posted by AHSIllini32

Not surprising in the least bit...unless you just want to complain about Beckman sucking.

I think Spence could develop into a quality player for us too. He's played decently for being thrust into a ton of playing time.

Spence actually did play ok yesterday. So he has a shot.

[Groundhogday]

Originally Posted by quhawks12

Thank you. And isn't Days a washout too? Thought he transferred?

Right. I didn't notice that he was gone (not that it makes much difference).

Originally Posted by quhawks12

Spence actually did play ok yesterday. So he has a shot.

Maybe he could develop into a decent backup with experience, so I probably wrote him off too soon. But most CB with talent contribute early. Given our problems in the secondary, I would expect a RS-freshman to be playing major snaps if he had talent. The last time I checked, true freshman Bentley had already passed him up on the depth chart.

[GilThorpe]

does anyone else besides me think that one reason that 2 or 3 other coaches were not interested was the fact many people knew we were so thin in personnel in many areas?

I mean, lets not kid ourselves, deep down , TB & staff knew we were in for trouble this year. This could not have been a secret to alot of people who were in the know.

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by Groundhogday

Right. I didn't notice that he was gone (not that it makes much difference).



Maybe he could develop into a decent backup with experience, so I probably wrote him off too soon. But most CB with talent contribute early. Given our problems in the secondary, I would expect a RS-freshman to be playing major snaps if he had talent. The last time I checked, true freshman Bentley had already passed him up on the depth chart.

Perhaps Bentley is who I'm thinking of in terms of contributing pretty solidly this year. However, I have seen Spence in there doing an admirable job as well.

[Groundhogday]

Originally Posted by GilThorpe

does anyone else besides me think that one reason that 2 or 3 other coaches were not interested was the fact many people knew we were so thin in personnel in many areas?

I mean, lets not kid ourselves, deep down , TB & staff knew we were in for trouble this year. This could not have been a secret to alot of people who were in the know.

YES. TAMU has the No. 17 and 27 classes in 2010, 2011. Would you rather inherit that talent or what Zook pulled in his last two years (70, 42 with the last class worse than the rankings due to the number of guys who never made it to fall camp).

[Groundhogday]

Defensive Line

2009: Buchanan (4 star), Kynard (2 star), Buckner (4 star), Spence (3 star)
2010: Bates (3 star), Denmark (3 star), Teitsma (2 star), Woods (2 star), Howe (2 star FB)
2011: Caldwell (3 star), Nelson (2 star), O’Connor (3 star), Beavers (3 star), Jones (3 star), Tucker (3 star)

15 DL recruited, including everyone tried on the DL
-5 washouts for various reasons (Buckner, Denmark, Beavers, Jones, Tucker)
-2 Moved to other positions (Bates, O’Connor)
-2 backups who have not shown much to date (Nelson, Woods)
=
6 players (Buchanan, Kynard, Spence, Teitsma, Howe, Caldwell), three of whom are probably gone after this year (Buchanan, Kynard and Spence).

The problem here is that we have had four washouts from the 2010 and 2011 classes, plus only one of the remaining guys looks like a potential impact player (Caldwell). Nelson might develop late and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bates moved to DE/Leo next year, but overall we are really going to be hurting next year due to the DL recruiting shortfalls in 2010/2011. And for this year, those recruiting classes really hurt our depth.

[AHSIllini32]

Boy we're gonna need those true freshman from this year to produce for this defense next year.

[Thacher_H_Guild]

I think one thing that actually unfairly increased expectations for this year is lots of things went unusually right for Illinois last year to get to 7 wins. For example, they had a couple injuries at running back and a few others, but they had a remarkably small number of injuries last year, which helped them mask a lack of depth. Of course, they lost more talent than they gained in newcomers since last year, but I also think the recruiting problems would have been more evident last year had they not been pretty fortunate with injuries. (I'd say they were about as lucky with injuries last year as they've been unlucky this year.)

[Theofan]

I could not agree more with all of your opinions here. We have a very delusional view of the cupboard being stocked or bare. I don't think it is going to be a very fair evaluation of Beckman until we see what he can do with the athletes he is getting that HE wants. If we are still in the position in 2-3 years I will be all for calling for changes. As frustrating as it is I will do my very best to be patient and not throw something thru my TV while watching the Illini when I can living here in Florida like I do. GHD thanks for starting a thread that has a bit of sanity to it.

[Groundhogday]

Originally Posted by Thacher_H_Guild

I think one thing that actually unfairly increased expectations for this year is lots of things went unusually right for Illinois last year to get to 7 wins. For example, they had a couple injuries at running back and a few others, but they had a remarkably small number of injuries last year, which helped them mask a lack of depth. Of course, they lost more talent than they gained in newcomers since last year, but I also think the recruiting problems would have been more evident last year had they not been pretty fortunate with injuries. (I'd say they were about as lucky with injuries last year as they've been unlucky this year.)

Very good point. However, let me add that our lack of depth last year probably contributed to the 0-6 slide over the second half of the season.

[CARPET]

Originally Posted by Groundhogday

. However, let me add that our lack of depth last year probably contributed to the 0-6 slide over the second half of the season.

Let me ask you a question as I come in peace.

Do you think if Zook was still the head coach our record would be any different at present time?

[quhawks12]

Originally Posted by CARPET

Let me ask you a question as I come in peace.

Do you think if Zook was still the head coach our record would be any different at present time?

If we had the same exact staff. With Zook, VK and Petrino/Brohm....I'm going to say yes. Same record. We would still have the same OL.

[ncoillini]

Originally Posted by Groundhogday

Defensive Line

2009: Buchanan (4 star), Kynard (2 star), Buckner (4 star), Spence (3 star)
2010: Bates (3 star), Denmark (3 star), Teitsma (2 star), Woods (2 star), Howe (2 star FB)
2011: Caldwell (3 star), Nelson (2 star), O’Connor (3 star), Beavers (3 star), Jones (3 star), Tucker (3 star)

15 DL recruited, including everyone tried on the DL
-5 washouts for various reasons (Buckner, Denmark, Beavers, Jones, Tucker)
-2 Moved to other positions (Bates, O’Connor)
-2 backups who have not shown much to date (Nelson, Woods)
=
6 players (Buchanan, Kynard, Spence, Teitsma, Howe, Caldwell), three of whom are probably gone after this year (Buchanan, Kynard and Spence).

The problem here is that we have had four washouts from the 2010 and 2011 classes, plus only one of the remaining guys looks like a potential impact player (Caldwell). Nelson might develop late and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bates moved to DE/Leo next year, but overall we are really going to be hurting next year due to the DL recruiting shortfalls in 2010/2011. And for this year, those recruiting classes really hurt our depth.

Didn't Beavers go to W. Michigan?? He did commit to the ILLINI but , I don't think it was a commitable offer if I remember correct. So I would cross Willie off your list.

[Ron Zooks Barber]

Originally Posted by CARPET

Let me ask you a question as I come in peace.

Do you think if Zook was still the head coach our record would be any different at present time?

I think the record would be worse.
Consider this,
1 season in 7 had a winning record.
4 of the 7 seasons had records below 500.
Is this a loaded question, or what?

2012 = 2-4
2011 = 6-6 5th (bowl win goes to VK)
2010 = 7-6 4th
2009 = 3-9 9th
2008 = 5-7 8th
2007 = 9-3 2nd
2006 = 2-10 10th
2005 = 2-9 11th

[Ron Zooks Barber]

Originally Posted by quhawks12

If we had the same exact staff. With Zook, VK and Petrino/Brohm....I'm going to say yes. Same record. We would still have the same OL.

IN addition to the overall record from last year, posted above, consider that there has not been much difference in the performance from game to game since 2010.

2010 OSU 24-13 L
2011 OSU 17-7 L The margin is 10-11 pts in both 2010 & 2011
2012 OSU ????
2010 PSU 33-13 W
2011 PSU 10-7 L
2012 PSU 35-7 L We scored exactly 1 TD in both games, They had axe to grind
2010 WI DNP
2011 WI 28-17 L
2012 WI 31-14 L Again, not much difference, WI scored 1 field goal more this year and we scored 1 field goal less.

SO, my point is that the team is essentially the same as it has been for the last few years. Zook would not have done any better, although the D being still in a VK system may have held down the score a little just because the players were used to it. Otherwise, I don't see any difference. The losses would still be losses, the scores might be different, but at the end of the day w's and l's are all that count!

[makeme]

We are the worst football team in the country. If you don't think so, then you have been drinking too much kool-aid. Our coach stinks, the players stink, and most of all, don't show up to the stadium, it is not worth the money. We should all be banning this awful product that University has provided for the fans. It is just utterly pathetic.

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by makeme

We are the worst football team in the country. If you don't think so, then you have been drinking too much kool-aid. Our coach stinks, the players stink, and most of all, don't show up to the stadium, it is not worth the money. We should all be banning this awful product that University has provided for the fans. It is just utterly pathetic.

Nice knowin ya!

I really hope Dan doesn't let this board slowly get drug down to the dredges of the scout board. I trust he won't!

Oh and by the way, there is not one single accurate statement in your post.

[Wokker]

Originally Posted by makeme

We are the worst football team in the country. If you don't think so, then you have been drinking too much kool-aid. Our coach stinks, the players stink, and most of all, don't show up to the stadium, it is not worth the money. We should all be banning this awful product that University has provided for the fans. It is just utterly pathetic.

I think this particular rant belongs in the pre game thread.

[I Hate Lemonier]

Originally Posted by Ron Zooks Barber

IN addition to the overall record from last year, posted above, consider that there has not been much difference in the performance from game to game since 2010.

2010 OSU 24-13 L
2011 OSU 17-7 L The margin is 10-11 pts in both 2010 & 2011
2012 OSU ????
2010 PSU 33-13 W
2011 PSU 10-7 L
2012 PSU 35-7 L We scored exactly 1 TD in both games, They had axe to grind
2010 WI DNP
2011 WI 28-17 L
2012 WI 31-14 L Again, not much difference, WI scored 1 field goal more this year and we scored 1 field goal less.

SO, my point is that the team is essentially the same as it has been for the last few years. Zook would not have done any better, although the D being still in a VK system may have held down the score a little just because the players were used to it. Otherwise, I don't see any difference. The losses would still be losses, the scores might be different, but at the end of the day w's and l's are all that count!

Im not following this logic. We were 2 games above .500 over the past two years. In the 12 losses, 9 of them were within two scores or less.

This season we are 2 games below .500 and all 4 losses have been by 3 scores or more. That seems to me to be a significant drop

[Groundhogday]

Originally Posted by CARPET

Let me ask you a question as I come in peace.

Do you think if Zook was still the head coach our record would be any different at present time?

I think we would probably have the same record, but perhaps would not have been blown out as much in the losses.

FWIW, I also think our recruiting for 2012 would have been worse and our 2013 class would be in the toilet.

Originally Posted by ncoillini

Didn't Beavers go to W. Michigan?? He did commit to the ILLINI but, I don't think it was a commitable offer if I remember correct. So I would cross Willie off your list.

He signed a LOI with Illinois. He was released from the LOI because of academic problems which allowed him to enroll at Western Michigan.

[ChiCityIllini]

Say you what you will about Zook, but the guy had an eye for talent. A lot of our former targets are having huge impacts in college football today... LeMonnier at Auburn, Tank Carradine at FSU, Tavon Austin at WV, Keith Brown starting as frosh at Louisville. UP for debate how realistic getting any of those guys were but at least in the case of couple they were committed (Brown, Carradine).

The problem was that maybe we wasted too much on these guys when we could have been focusing on that next tier that would have players you can win with but not necessarily jump out at you as NFL prospects in high school.

While Beckman is getting heat right now, I think he is taking that approach - getting guys in the next tier that will stick around for 4-5 years and be productive players in years 3,4,5. It would be stupid to think you come in and win 5 and 4 star recruits like Treadwell, Tulley-Tillman, Isaac - guys like those want to win and go to an established program. We need 5-10 years of sustained success to start winning those battles.

[AHSIllini32]

Originally Posted by ChiCityIllini

Say you what you will about Zook, but the guy had an eye for talent. A lot of our former targets are having huge impacts in college football today... LeMonnier at Auburn, Tank Carradine at FSU, Tavon Austin at WV, Keith Brown starting as frosh at Louisville. UP for debate how realistic getting any of those guys were but at least in the case of couple they were committed (Brown, Carradine).

The problem was that maybe we wasted too much on these guys when we could have been focusing on that next tier that would have players you can win with but not necessarily jump out at you as NFL prospects in high school.

While Beckman is getting heat right now, I think he is taking that approach - getting guys in the next tier that will stick around for 4-5 years and be productive players in years 3,4,5. It would be stupid to think you come in and win 5 and 4 star recruits like Treadwell, Tulley-Tillman, Isaac - guys like those want to win and go to an established program. We need 5-10 years of sustained success to start winning those battles.

I don't know that I would list those guys and then say Zook had an eye for talent for going after them. EVERYONE was going after them. A true test of a coach having a recruiting eye is being to get the "middle tier" guys and under the radar types who fit a scheme and who stick around. In that sense, I think Zook struggled mightily. I admit I was one who thought Zook was a good recruiter and when he had something to sell he was bringing in some highly rated classes. However, a ton of those guys washed out/never contributed and eventually the "play early/Rose Bowl" well ran dry and we are left in the situation we are now with zero depth anywhere outside of perhaps LB.