Official 2012-2013 Illinois Predictions Thread

trevdv · Oct 9, 2012, 03:19 PM

Predictions? Analysis? Thoughts in general? Post them here!

Go

TEYPAY · Oct 9, 2012, 08:50 PM

We will win some, we will lose some. Oh - you want more detail than that.

-better than .500
-4th - 7th in B1G
-win 1 game in B1G tourney
- bubble team for NCAA - if we make it - we win 1 game.

trevdv · Oct 9, 2012, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TEYPAY

We will win some, we will lose some. Oh - you want more detail than that.

-better than .500
-4th - 7th in B1G
-win 1 game in B1G tourney
- bubble team for NCAA - if we make it - we win 1 game.

Is that not the story of Illinois basketball over the past 7 years or so? I completely agree with you.

trevdv · Oct 9, 2012, 09:17 PM

B1G Standings Projections:

1. Indiana
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
3. Michigan State
5. Wisconsin
6. Minnesota
7. Illinois
8. Purdue
9. Iowa
10. Northwestern
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska

I think Purdue will drop way off without a lot of their star guys from last year; their production will lower greatly. Northwestern doesn't have a ton of weapons since Shurna has left, and I think their production will drop off too. Iowa might surprise some people, but won't make the tourney. Minny has the chance to be a really good team, but is in the mediocre tier along with us and Purdue and Wisconsin. Just my thoughts.

Illini70math · Oct 9, 2012, 09:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trevdv

Is that not the story of Illinois basketball over the past 7 years or so? I completely agree with you.

Actually, in 2009 we finished 2nd in the B1G (tied with Purdue) and were a five-seed in the NCAA tourney. Chet broke his hand right before the BTT, and we lost in the first round of the NCAA to a WKU team we probably would have beaten with Chet. Our final record was 24-10 and 11-7 in the B1G, IIRC.

ivwilsoniv · Oct 9, 2012, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Illini70math

Actually, in 2009 we finished 2nd in the B1G (tied with Purdue) and were a five-seed in the NCAA tourney. Chet broke his hand right before the BTT, and we lost in the first round of the NCAA to a WKU team we probably would have beaten with Chet. Our final record was 24-10 and 11-7 in the B1G, IIRC.

I listened to that tournament game on the radio as I drove down to Clearwater, Florida with friends for Spring Break. Needless to say, it was a pretty disappointing start to my final college Spring Break, but we made up for it during the week.

CAHALL15 · Oct 10, 2012, 01:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trevdv

B1G Standings Projections:

1. Indiana
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
3. Michigan State
5. Wisconsin
6. Minnesota
7. Illinois
8. Purdue
9. Iowa
10. Northwestern
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska

I think Purdue will drop way off without a lot of their star guys from last year; their production will lower greatly. Northwestern doesn't have a ton of weapons since Shurna has left, and I think their production will drop off too. Iowa might surprise some people, but won't make the tourney. Minny has the chance to be a really good team, but is in the mediocre tier along with us and Purdue and Wisconsin. Just my thoughts.

Make MSU 2 and I agree with your projections. I think Nebraska finishes 11 and PSU last. Gary Harris at MSU, Ferrel at Indy, and McGary and Robinson at Mich will all shine as freshman IMO. I think BP3 and DJ are finally consistent this year and we make the tourney as a bubble team. Zeller will be Conference player of the year.

U of I 89-05-10 · Oct 10, 2012, 01:47 AM

It might be my lack of hope in the football team driving me toward an overly optimistic outlook for hoops, but I really think we shock the Big Ten. For the first time in a long time, I see us playing our best basketball in March and a dark horse for a surprise Tournament run. Looking at the schedule, I think we'll have a hiccup or two in the non-conference and possibly underperforming in a few games resulting in losses, especially early (as we're working out the kinks of the new system). However, I think by the Missouri game, BP3 and DJ have really "found themselves" as players again and will bring their A games to St. Louis, where we'll finally beat MU again. I could see us stumbling going into Conference play, but if we are starting to really click by February (which I think we will), I could see a home upset of a highly ranked Indiana team being the real statement game: "John Groce is here to stay, and Illini basketball is back." I'll wait until tomorrow to post a revised record prediction, but I think with how tough the Big Ten is that we'll make the Tournament, and if we're on the Bubble, we won't be that close to being left out. GO ILLINI!

JoeJ · Oct 10, 2012, 05:33 AM

From reading Klee:
"Offensively, I’m looking at two things first. I’m looking at free throw attempts."
http://www.illinihq.com/sports/illin...-groce-qa.html

We have been horrific at getting to the line. We have been in the bottom 10% in this stat. If we can turn this around, I think we can succeed.
GO ILLINI!

Railsplitter · Oct 10, 2012, 06:22 AM

May not belong in this thread but, anyone know when media day is ?

ChainsawFan · Oct 10, 2012, 06:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Illini70math

Actually, in 2009 we finished 2nd in the B1G (tied with Purdue) and were a five-seed in the NCAA tourney. Chet broke his hand right before the BTT, and we lost in the first round of the NCAA to a WKU team we probably would have beaten with Chet. Our final record was 24-10 and 11-7 in the B1G, IIRC.

And we also had two 9th place finishes with no postseason whatsoever. The "story of the last 7 years" definitely averages out to a middle-of-the-pack finish in the Big Ten, and sweating it out on Selection Sunday. I don't get your point, other than that you really, really love talking about that 2009 team.

I think this year will probably be about the same (middle of the pack in the conference, on the tournament bubble), and that it will be the low-water mark of Groce era.

Calvin · Oct 10, 2012, 06:32 AM

Top 5

Indiana
Michigan

MSU
Wiscy
tOSU

Big group that's anybody's guess

12. Nebraska

.500 in conf is about the best we can do. BIG is talented and deep. Non-conf, I'd like us to get 11 wins, which means it's gonna be a long season with lots of bubble talk. We just don't have the horses to compete for the conference title, and you have to factor in that our upper classmen haven't demonstrated leadership or smart bball. Some of the talk here about Groce working miracles with players makes me shake my head. If he can take a step forward with this team, I think we make the tournament, and maybe even scare someone good along the way.

Worst case, more of the same bad basketball with a roller-coaster that leaves on the outside looking in.

Dan · Oct 10, 2012, 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Railsplitter

May not belong in this thread but, anyone know when media day is ?

Illinois' media day is today.

The Big Ten media day with all the hoops coaches will be held on Thursday, Oct. 25, at the Hyatt Regency O'Hare in Rosemont.

Future Walk-On · Oct 10, 2012, 08:20 AM

1. I am not optimistic that we we will see anything different from BP or DJ or TG...

It is hard to expect something new from someone we have seen 3 years already. (maybe the way G runs the offense will hit them and bam it will be great...)

2. We BLOW out inferior teams that show up at the Hall in the beginning of the year.

3. We make the NCAA tourney?

bleedsorangenblue · Oct 10, 2012, 08:23 AM

While I am hopeful, I am not optimistic that we can perform better than .500 in the B1G. This would put us battling with MN for 6th place. A couple signature wins and no horrible losses could put us on the right side of the bubble for a tournament bid. Any performance beyond this, I will think we have overacheived. The B1G is just too tough for us to expect much more.

On the hopeful side........ If the big boys beat up on each other, we can do well at home, pull out a couple wins we are not supposed to....... our record could look pretty good by the end of the season. Hopefully, we are playing our best ball by then. Win a couple games in the B1G tournament and we could have a decent seed in the NCAA tournament and advance a game or two.

I think this is doable if the guys buy in and avoid the mistakes that took them down last year. A few extra points at the line and fewer turnovers could have made the difference in several games last year. This year could just as easily fall down last year's path as make a change for the good. I am hopeful that Groce can make the difference to tip the scales.

Botb9 · Oct 10, 2012, 08:34 AM

Record: 20-12 (10-8)
Marquee wins: Michigan and Purdue at home, Auburn at UC (finally), USC in Maui, GT during ACC/B1G Challenge

Outside of Maui, our non-con if pretty well full of cupcakes. We take fourth in Maui, beating USC but falling to Texas in the semifinal and Marquette in the 3rd place game. We exorcise road demons against Nebraska and Minny and finally win at the UC, but lose to Wisky and OSU at home. We are granted a #9 seed in the NCAA, win our first game, and fall in the second (third) round.

Overall, we see a much more exciting brand of basketball, but mistakes caused by the introduction of a new system as well as a lack of ballhandlers leave the team treading water going into 2013.

WesterveltVictoryCigar · Oct 10, 2012, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Botb9

Record: 20-12 (10-8)
Marquee wins: Michigan and Purdue at home, Auburn at UC (finally), USC in Maui, GT during ACC/B1G Challenge

Unlikely that any of those other than scUM will be considered "marquee" wins at the end of the year. I think our best hope to make the NCAAs is to get one or two good wins and avoid any bad losses. B1G should be good and help our overall SOS/RPI, but this schedule screams "bubble" to me even with an improved team.

Botb9 · Oct 10, 2012, 08:46 AM

Well, "marquee" probably isn't the right word for me to use. From an NCAA bubble standpoint, they will probably be top 100 RPI wins, and those are important. I agree about the bubble. I believe Illinois rises up to fill in the void left by some of the mid-range teams that sink a bit and that's what gets us in more than anything. Purdue, for example, will be weaker without Robbie Hummel, Northwestern without John Shurna has no chance, etc. There are some nervous Illini on Selection Sunday.

kgwasmyfavorite · Oct 10, 2012, 09:22 AM

I think if we've learned anything from football, it is that transitions can be difficult. I want to temper my expectations, but our schedule is really, really weak. Even in conference play, it lines up pretty nice for us. All that being said, I think we come out pretty well this year. I looked at each game, this isn't an arbitrary number:

21 - 11 overall
11 - 7 in B1G

We make the tourney as a 8/9 seed.

Here's hoping...

BP3 · Oct 10, 2012, 09:33 AM

I think that the first person that posted in the thread was right on. What I am looking forward to is the faster tempo and not slowing down when we have a 5 point lead with 5 minutes to go.

Foo G · Oct 10, 2012, 09:47 AM

The fact the Groce has a history of getting his team to improve over the course of the season is the most exciting thing for me.
I'm tired of seeing the team peak in December without making the right adjustments.

CHI 1086 · Oct 10, 2012, 10:10 AM

My feeling is that this team stutters out of the gate, but picks up momentum as the year progresses. Our "second five" gets us back in or secures victories while building team chemistry. One, maybe two upsets as Assembly Hall grows in intimidation. This leads to BT tourney magic (semi appearance or better

). This strength is on full display as we get a minimum of 2 wins in the NCAA tourney. I just get the feeling that this team is soooo hungry after the starvation diet of the Bruce era.

Wokker · Oct 10, 2012, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Foo G

The fact the Groce has a history of getting his team to improve over the course of the season is the most exciting thing for me.
I'm tired of seeing the team peak in December without making the right adjustments.

This.

B-Ball has tended to play their best ball around the end of football season, then steadily slid into a deep dark hole.

My prediction is we get play well to end the B1G season, do well in the B1G tourny, and get into the tourney as a 9-10 seed.

bkat63 · Oct 10, 2012, 11:15 AM

I am to the point where i don't care what their record is just as long as they improve every game and don't look as clueless as the football team does right now. And of course plays a style that is not run the shot clock down to 7 seconds and run the high screen roll play!!!

mattcoldagelli · Oct 10, 2012, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wokker

My prediction is we get play well to end the B1G season, do well in the B1G tourny, and get into the tourney as a 9-10 seed.

I would be pretty pleased with this. There are going to be some rough patches for sure, but an aggressive team that gets better as the season progresses would be really, really fun to watch.

Oct 10, 2012, 08:20 AM	#14
Future Walk-On of House Targaryen Location: Peoria, IL Posts: 1,433	1. I am not optimistic that we we will see anything different from BP or DJ or TG... It is hard to expect something new from someone we have seen 3 years already. (maybe the way G runs the offense will hit them and bam it will be great...) 2. We BLOW out inferior teams that show up at the Hall in the beginning of the year. 3. We make the NCAA tourney? __________________ 6 stars or bust

Oct 10, 2012, 08:34 AM	#16
Botb9 Realist Posts: 3,159	Record: 20-12 (10-8) Marquee wins: Michigan and Purdue at home, Auburn at UC (finally), USC in Maui, GT during ACC/B1G Challenge Outside of Maui, our non-con if pretty well full of cupcakes. We take fourth in Maui, beating USC but falling to Texas in the semifinal and Marquette in the 3rd place game. We exorcise road demons against Nebraska and Minny and finally win at the UC, but lose to Wisky and OSU at home. We are granted a #9 seed in the NCAA, win our first game, and fall in the second (third) round. Overall, we see a much more exciting brand of basketball, but mistakes caused by the introduction of a new system as well as a lack of ballhandlers leave the team treading water going into 2013. __________________ Hype is a self-serving beast that feeds on the hopes and dreams of fans.

Oct 10, 2012, 08:46 AM	#18
Botb9 Realist Posts: 3,159	Well, "marquee" probably isn't the right word for me to use. From an NCAA bubble standpoint, they will probably be top 100 RPI wins, and those are important. I agree about the bubble. I believe Illinois rises up to fill in the void left by some of the mid-range teams that sink a bit and that's what gets us in more than anything. Purdue, for example, will be weaker without Robbie Hummel, Northwestern without John Shurna has no chance, etc. There are some nervous Illini on Selection Sunday. __________________ Hype is a self-serving beast that feeds on the hopes and dreams of fans.

Oct 10, 2012, 09:47 AM	#21
Foo G Nobody likes a comedian Location: Kirksville, MO Posts: 1,558	The fact the Groce has a history of getting his team to improve over the course of the season is the most exciting thing for me. I'm tired of seeing the team peak in December without making the right adjustments. __________________ Be the person your dog thinks you are. Be unique. Follow me on twitter @emmerich10.

Oct 10, 2012, 10:10 AM	#22
CHI 1086 Location: Merced CA Posts: 186	My feeling is that this team stutters out of the gate, but picks up momentum as the year progresses. Our "second five" gets us back in or secures victories while building team chemistry. One, maybe two upsets as Assembly Hall grows in intimidation. This leads to BT tourney magic (semi appearance or better). This strength is on full display as we get a minimum of 2 wins in the NCAA tourney. I just get the feeling that this team is soooo hungry after the starvation diet of the Bruce era.

Oct 9, 2012, 03:19 PM	#1
trevdv Location: Champaign Posts: 2,574	Predictions? Analysis? Thoughts in general? Post them here! Go

Oct 9, 2012, 08:50 PM	#2
TEYPAY Location: Springfield Posts: 1,134	We will win some, we will lose some. Oh - you want more detail than that. -better than .500 -4th - 7th in B1G -win 1 game in B1G tourney - bubble team for NCAA - if we make it - we win 1 game.

Oct 9, 2012, 09:17 PM	#4
trevdv Location: Champaign Posts: 2,574	B1G Standings Projections: 1. Indiana 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 3. Michigan State 5. Wisconsin 6. Minnesota 7. Illinois 8. Purdue 9. Iowa 10. Northwestern 11. Penn State 12. Nebraska I think Purdue will drop way off without a lot of their star guys from last year; their production will lower greatly. Northwestern doesn't have a ton of weapons since Shurna has left, and I think their production will drop off too. Iowa might surprise some people, but won't make the tourney. Minny has the chance to be a really good team, but is in the mediocre tier along with us and Purdue and Wisconsin. Just my thoughts.

Oct 10, 2012, 01:47 AM	#8
U of I 89-05-10 Location: Iowa City, Ia. Posts: 955	It might be my lack of hope in the football team driving me toward an overly optimistic outlook for hoops, but I really think we shock the Big Ten. For the first time in a long time, I see us playing our best basketball in March and a dark horse for a surprise Tournament run. Looking at the schedule, I think we'll have a hiccup or two in the non-conference and possibly underperforming in a few games resulting in losses, especially early (as we're working out the kinks of the new system). However, I think by the Missouri game, BP3 and DJ have really "found themselves" as players again and will bring their A games to St. Louis, where we'll finally beat MU again. I could see us stumbling going into Conference play, but if we are starting to really click by February (which I think we will), I could see a home upset of a highly ranked Indiana team being the real statement game: "John Groce is here to stay, and Illini basketball is back." I'll wait until tomorrow to post a revised record prediction, but I think with how tough the Big Ten is that we'll make the Tournament, and if we're on the Bubble, we won't be that close to being left out. GO ILLINI!

Oct 10, 2012, 05:33 AM	#9
JoeJ Posts: 128	From reading Klee: "Offensively, I’m looking at two things first. I’m looking at free throw attempts." http://www.illinihq.com/sports/illin...-groce-qa.html We have been horrific at getting to the line. We have been in the bottom 10% in this stat. If we can turn this around, I think we can succeed. GO ILLINI! Last edited by Dan; Oct 10, 2012 at 06:27 AM.

Oct 10, 2012, 06:22 AM	#10
Railsplitter Posts: 226	May not belong in this thread but, anyone know when media day is ?

Oct 10, 2012, 06:32 AM	#12
Calvin Posts: 1,611	Top 5 Indiana Michigan MSU Wiscy tOSU Big group that's anybody's guess 12. Nebraska .500 in conf is about the best we can do. BIG is talented and deep. Non-conf, I'd like us to get 11 wins, which means it's gonna be a long season with lots of bubble talk. We just don't have the horses to compete for the conference title, and you have to factor in that our upper classmen haven't demonstrated leadership or smart bball. Some of the talk here about Groce working miracles with players makes me shake my head. If he can take a step forward with this team, I think we make the tournament, and maybe even scare someone good along the way. Worst case, more of the same bad basketball with a roller-coaster that leaves on the outside looking in.

Oct 10, 2012, 08:23 AM	#15
bleedsorangenblue Location: C-U Posts: 944	While I am hopeful, I am not optimistic that we can perform better than .500 in the B1G. This would put us battling with MN for 6th place. A couple signature wins and no horrible losses could put us on the right side of the bubble for a tournament bid. Any performance beyond this, I will think we have overacheived. The B1G is just too tough for us to expect much more. On the hopeful side........ If the big boys beat up on each other, we can do well at home, pull out a couple wins we are not supposed to....... our record could look pretty good by the end of the season. Hopefully, we are playing our best ball by then. Win a couple games in the B1G tournament and we could have a decent seed in the NCAA tournament and advance a game or two. I think this is doable if the guys buy in and avoid the mistakes that took them down last year. A few extra points at the line and fewer turnovers could have made the difference in several games last year. This year could just as easily fall down last year's path as make a change for the good. I am hopeful that Groce can make the difference to tip the scales.

Oct 10, 2012, 09:22 AM	#19
kgwasmyfavorite Location: Connecticut Posts: 285	I think if we've learned anything from football, it is that transitions can be difficult. I want to temper my expectations, but our schedule is really, really weak. Even in conference play, it lines up pretty nice for us. All that being said, I think we come out pretty well this year. I looked at each game, this isn't an arbitrary number: 21 - 11 overall 11 - 7 in B1G We make the tourney as a 8/9 seed. Here's hoping...

Oct 10, 2012, 09:33 AM	#20
BP3 Posts: 136	I think that the first person that posted in the thread was right on. What I am looking forward to is the faster tempo and not slowing down when we have a 5 point lead with 5 minutes to go.

Oct 10, 2012, 11:15 AM	#24
bkat63 Posts: 17	I am to the point where i don't care what their record is just as long as they improve every game and don't look as clueless as the football team does right now. And of course plays a style that is not run the shot clock down to 7 seconds and run the high screen roll play!!!