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How the pollsters really fared

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Old Nov 10, 2012, 07:35 PM   #1
Clemens
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Nate's got a good summary up about how various pollsters fared compared to the actual election results. NY Times article so it's a subscription site that allows 10 free articles a month, If you have used up your 10 free articles, just open an incognito window in chrome and read it.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...idential-race/

The short and sweet version is no the polls aren't biased in favor of the liberuls, in fact most of them had a republican lean.

a couple excerpts from the article.

Among the more prolific polling firms, the most accurate by this measure was TIPP, which conducted a national tracking poll for Investors’ Business Daily.

Among telephone-based polling firms that conducted a significant number of state-by-state surveys, the best results came from CNN, Mellman and Grove Insight.

Several polling firms got notably poor results, on the other hand. For the second consecutive election — the same was true in 2010 — Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average. Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also largely missed the mark. Mason-Dixon might be given a pass since it has a decent track record over the longer term, while American Research Group has long been unreliable.

Way to go Pablano!
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 06:59 AM   #2
FeelYourPaign
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Worth keeping in mind for two years from now
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 09:23 AM   #3
Sure Shot
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Originally Posted by FeelYourPaign View Post
Worth keeping in mind for two years from now
Or you could just be a blind Nate Silver fanboy. Hasn't led me too far wrong yet.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 09:29 AM   #4
uiba99
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I think it's time we just admit that Nate Silver is the Unquestioned Lord and Master of Polling.

LOL!

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