How the pollsters really fared

Clemens · Nov 10, 2012, 07:35 PM

Nate's got a good summary up about how various pollsters fared compared to the actual election results. NY Times article so it's a subscription site that allows 10 free articles a month, If you have used up your 10 free articles, just open an incognito window in chrome and read it.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...idential-race/

The short and sweet version is no the polls aren't biased in favor of the liberuls, in fact most of them had a republican lean.

a couple excerpts from the article.

Among the more prolific polling firms, the most accurate by this measure was TIPP, which conducted a national tracking poll for Investors’ Business Daily.

Among telephone-based polling firms that conducted a significant number of state-by-state surveys, the best results came from CNN, Mellman and Grove Insight.

Several polling firms got notably poor results, on the other hand. For the second consecutive election — the same was true in 2010 — Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average. Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also largely missed the mark. Mason-Dixon might be given a pass since it has a decent track record over the longer term, while American Research Group has long been unreliable.

Way to go Pablano!

FeelYourPaign · Nov 11, 2012, 06:59 AM

Worth keeping in mind for two years from now

Sure Shot · Nov 11, 2012, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FeelYourPaign

Worth keeping in mind for two years from now

Or you could just be a blind Nate Silver fanboy. Hasn't led me too far wrong yet.

uiba99 · Nov 11, 2012, 09:29 AM

I think it's time we just admit that Nate Silver is the Unquestioned Lord and Master of Polling.

LOL!

Nov 11, 2012, 09:29 AM	#4
uiba99 Tiny Illini Location: The basement of the Alamo Posts: 1,664	I think it's time we just admit that Nate Silver is the Unquestioned Lord and Master of Polling. LOL! __________________ "The danger is all around us now. Hatred is rising, yet all sides feel more virtuous. We’re asleep to the threat. We can have the most sophisticated Constitution, a brilliant system of checks and balances and a Bill of Rights to safeguard against the tyranny of the majority — yet none of it can stand against the power of hatred." Fr. John I. Jenkins, President, University of Notre Dame

Nov 10, 2012, 07:35 PM	#1
Clemens Posts: 501	Nate's got a good summary up about how various pollsters fared compared to the actual election results. NY Times article so it's a subscription site that allows 10 free articles a month, If you have used up your 10 free articles, just open an incognito window in chrome and read it. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...idential-race/ The short and sweet version is no the polls aren't biased in favor of the liberuls, in fact most of them had a republican lean. a couple excerpts from the article. Among the more prolific polling firms, the most accurate by this measure was TIPP, which conducted a national tracking poll for Investors’ Business Daily. Among telephone-based polling firms that conducted a significant number of state-by-state surveys, the best results came from CNN, Mellman and Grove Insight. Several polling firms got notably poor results, on the other hand. For the second consecutive election — the same was true in 2010 — Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average. Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also largely missed the mark. Mason-Dixon might be given a pass since it has a decent track record over the longer term, while American Research Group has long been unreliable. Way to go Pablano!

Nov 11, 2012, 06:59 AM	#2
FeelYourPaign Location: Barrington, IL Posts: 2,350	Worth keeping in mind for two years from now