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How the pollsters really fared

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Old Nov 10, 2012, 08:35 PM   #1
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Nate's got a good summary up about how various pollsters fared compared to the actual election results. NY Times article so it's a subscription site that allows 10 free articles a month, If you have used up your 10 free articles, just open an incognito window in chrome and read it.


The short and sweet version is no the polls aren't biased in favor of the liberuls, in fact most of them had a republican lean.

a couple excerpts from the article.

Among the more prolific polling firms, the most accurate by this measure was TIPP, which conducted a national tracking poll for Investors’ Business Daily.

Among telephone-based polling firms that conducted a significant number of state-by-state surveys, the best results came from CNN, Mellman and Grove Insight.

Several polling firms got notably poor results, on the other hand. For the second consecutive election — the same was true in 2010 — Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average. Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also largely missed the mark. Mason-Dixon might be given a pass since it has a decent track record over the longer term, while American Research Group has long been unreliable.

Way to go Pablano!
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 07:59 AM   #2
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Worth keeping in mind for two years from now
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 10:23 AM   #3
Sure Shot
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Originally Posted by FeelYourPaign View Post
Worth keeping in mind for two years from now
Or you could just be a blind Nate Silver fanboy. Hasn't led me too far wrong yet.
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Old Nov 11, 2012, 10:29 AM   #4
Tiny Illini
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I think it's time we just admit that Nate Silver is the Unquestioned Lord and Master of Polling.


"The danger is all around us now. Hatred is rising, yet all sides feel more virtuous. We’re asleep to the threat. We can have the most sophisticated Constitution, a brilliant system of checks and balances and a Bill of Rights to safeguard against the tyranny of the majority — yet none of it can stand against the power of hatred."
Fr. John I. Jenkins, President, University of Notre Dame
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