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Old Feb 15, 2017, 07:16 AM   #1
the national
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Well, this isn't the news we wanted to start the season. Reyes looks to be out for the season with a torn ligament in his throwing elbow. It will likely require Tommy Johns surgery. Im really bummed, was really looking forward to watching him pitch this year.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1...-tear-ligament

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Old Feb 15, 2017, 11:31 AM   #2
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Last year, Lance Lynn. This year, Alex Reyes. Incredible.
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Old Feb 15, 2017, 11:52 AM   #3
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It's an every year occurance... what the heck is in the water in Florida?

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Old Feb 15, 2017, 11:58 AM   #4
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It's bad, but he and Luke Weaver's projections for 2017 were about the same. Obviously, Reyes has more upside if he could have put it all together this year (ie; lowered his walk rate).

Still, to have a projected starter go down and still have a rotation of:
1) Martinez
2) Wainwright
3) Lynn
4) Leake
5) Weaver/Wacha/Gomber and others comparable in the minors

Points to good depth. Cubs have a starter or 2 go down and they're dipping well below the cardinals comparable depth. Unfortunately, the only way i see the Cardinals catching the Cubs is if that very thing happens; only think slowing them down is pitching depth.
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Old Feb 15, 2017, 01:04 PM   #5
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The good news is that Wacha apparently has no issues with his shoulder, so hopefully he can return to form and the loss of Reyes won't hurt so bad. If he is healthy, and Wainwright and Leake rebound from their issues we could have some seriously good starting pitching again. Obviously, that's a lot of "ifs"

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Old Feb 16, 2017, 10:26 AM   #6
DrewD007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dgcrow View Post
Last year, Lance Lynn. This year, Alex Reyes. Incredible.
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Originally Posted by illini8507 View Post
It's an every year occurance... what the heck is in the water in Florida?
Lynn was pitching with his during the playoffs in 2015 and had surgery in November.

I still have no idea what Mo was thinking that off-season though. Yeah we missed out on David Price, but instead of matching or besting the Cubs offer to Lackey (2 years/$32 million), he gives Mike Leake a 5 year deal with a full no trade clause. Still befuddles me.
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Old Feb 17, 2017, 12:32 AM   #7
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Lynn was pitching with his during the playoffs in 2015 and had surgery in November.

I still have no idea what Mo was thinking that off-season though. Yeah we missed out on David Price, but instead of matching or besting the Cubs offer to Lackey (2 years/$32 million), he gives Mike Leake a 5 year deal with a full no trade clause. Still befuddles me.
It's pretty simple, Leake is 9 years younger. Pretty easy decision IMO.

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Old Feb 17, 2017, 12:38 AM   #8
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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but this our history of losing pitchers for the season

2017: Reyes
2016: Lynn
2015: Waino
2014: Carpenter
2013: Carpenter
2012: Waino

I feel like I'm missing somebody. Wacha and Garcia have been banged up A LOT but I can't remember them being out for a whole season.

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Old Feb 17, 2017, 12:44 AM   #9
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The good news is that Wacha apparently has no issues with his shoulder, so hopefully he can return to form and the loss of Reyes won't hurt so bad. If he is healthy, and Wainwright and Leake rebound from their issues we could have some seriously good starting pitching again. Obviously, that's a lot of "ifs"
Getting the defense straight will help a ton too.

I fully expect Wacha to get the 5th starting spot. They said they will try to convert Rosenthal to a starter but I think they have been saying that for the past 4 years.

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Old Feb 17, 2017, 06:28 AM   #10
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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but this our history of losing pitchers for the season

2017: Reyes
2016: Lynn
2015: Waino
2014: Carpenter
2013: Carpenter
2012: Waino

I feel like I'm missing somebody. Wacha and Garcia have been banged up A LOT but I can't remember them being out for a whole season.
Motte got injured in 12 or 13 during spring training too.

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Old Feb 17, 2017, 07:39 AM   #11
illini8507
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Originally Posted by jrichisamazing View Post
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but this our history of losing pitchers for the season

2017: Reyes
2016: Lynn
2015: Waino
2014: Carpenter
2013: Carpenter
2012: Waino

I feel like I'm missing somebody. Wacha and Garcia have been banged up A LOT but I can't remember them being out for a whole season.
Wainwright's TJ was 2011. He wasn't on the world series team because of it. He pitched in 2012.

Kyle Lohse had some issues in there somewhere prior to that, and we lost Carp in 2007 too

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Old Feb 17, 2017, 08:11 AM   #12
DrewD007
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It's pretty simple, Leake is 9 years younger. Pretty easy decision IMO.
I suppose if Mo was dead set on giving out a 5 year deal then yes. However Lackey signed a 2 year deal. And in year 1 of that deal he outperformed Leake by a great amount and I'd bet he is better this year as well.
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Old Feb 17, 2017, 08:51 AM   #13
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I suppose if Mo was dead set on giving out a 5 year deal then yes. However Lackey signed a 2 year deal. And in year 1 of that deal he outperformed Leake by a great amount and I'd bet he is better this year as well.
Lackey posted a career year in 2015 and was a pretty good bet to come back to earth. Leake was only 28 and had consistently been a 2-ish WAR pitcher over the course of his career. Leake makes an average of a million less per year on his contract and if both pitchers performed to their career norms, there wouldn't be much difference between their performances.

The Lackey side of the bet was right. He wasn't anywhere near as good in 2016 as in 2015. He basically had a career average year. Still pretty good for a 3 or 4 starter, but not as great as 2015. The problem was that Leake had his worst year since at least 2012.

The likelihood is that this year Lackey basically repeats his 2016 with maybe 10 or so fewer innings due to age, while Leake rebounds and posts a career average season. If that happens, the pitchers will be of basically equivalent value. And then for the next three years, the Cardinals have an above average starting pitcher on a reasonable contract while the Cubs need to fill a hole in their rotation.
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Old Feb 17, 2017, 09:52 AM   #14
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Leake is a perfectly reasonable back end of the rotation starter earning a market rate contract. I'd take him over Lackey any day of the week especially this season; Lackey's coming back down to earth hard this year if I could bet. Especially with a weaker Cub outfield defense behind him.

In fact, all the Cub starter's should regress with Schwarber in LF, Heyward in CF, and Zobrist (I think, at least most innings, not sure) in RF. That's a below average to poor outfield
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