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Old Oct 19, 2017, 07:48 PM   #1
WhiteRhino
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Figured I'd get this started early

Should they pay big bucks to resign Arrieta?

So who should they try to pick up to get better next year?
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Old Oct 19, 2017, 08:04 PM   #2
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No, probably not re: Arrieta

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Old Oct 19, 2017, 08:06 PM   #3
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No, probably not re: Arrieta
And I tend to think so too, re: Wade Davis.

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Old Oct 20, 2017, 08:11 AM   #4
HR217
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I would like Arrieta if we can kid him for the right deal of course but if not, it is what it is.
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Old Oct 20, 2017, 10:22 AM   #5
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I would like Arrieta if we can kid him for the right deal of course but if not, it is what it is.
I dont want that contract on the books for the next 8 years is the problem... The way he pitches does not set him up for a long career. Tseng looks competent as a 4/5 starter, and I'm fine calling Lester/Hendricks/Q as our top three.

I'd rather pay for a leadoff/CF guy. Jay was lights out second half, but a Dexter Fowler player was one of the many pieces we sorely needed this year.
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Old Oct 20, 2017, 10:30 AM   #6
Shane Walsh
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Arrieta is a stud and if you don't resign him you will just end up overpaying some other stud starting pitcher, and maybe giving up prospects in trade if the need is really pressing. I can certainly understand if Theo and Jed decide that the cost is too high once the market price presents itself, but give it time to do so. If nothing else, drive the price up for others.

In any case, I trust Theo not to pull an Edwin Jackson here.

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Old Oct 20, 2017, 10:51 AM   #7
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They're in a tough spot in regards to pitching. Lester - Hendricks - Quintana is a very good top 3, the problem is once you start filling in that rotation with the rest of the in house names, the depth is non-existent. And you when you start to realize that Lester's best years are behind him it starts looking very thin very fast. Filling out the bullpen likely requires a mid level $5mil/ acquisition as well.

Signing someone like Darvish gets them right back in the driver seat in the central, but the odds of that aren't very high. I'm assuming they'll sign somebody more on the Alex Cobb / Lance Lynn tier of FA pitchers, but that still requires a good chunk of money.

Outfield is an up gradable spot as well, but thats tough to do via FA. Zobrist and Heyward are eating a lot of $$ for not a lot of production. They'll likely run Schwarber out there in left again, but i doubt they'll be able to afford giving him another ~500 below average plate attempts.

The Cardinals are an infield upgrade and innings eater starter away from being within striking distance of the Cubs on paper as it stands now.
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Old Oct 20, 2017, 11:25 AM   #8
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Arrieta WAS a stud
FTFY

Arrieta's decline from 2015 to 2017 has been huge. Take a look at this.

An 11% decline is his ground ball %, walking more than 1 more batter / 9 innings, and a nearly 2 point increase in his FIP lead to a 5 point decrease in his WAR.
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Old Oct 20, 2017, 11:31 AM   #9
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Regarding the rotation, I am in agreement with many of the previous posts in that I have confidence in the top three of Quintana, Hendricks, and Lester. If/when Arrieta leaves for free agency (his Chicago home is for sale), the back end of the rotations needs to be addressed. champaignchris and I are fully aboard the Tyler Chatwood bandwagon for the #4 spot. Where #5 comes from is a mystery to me. I'm don't think they'll overpay for relief help, rather I see them getting creative once again.

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Old Oct 20, 2017, 12:04 PM   #10
HR217
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FTFY

Arrieta's decline from 2015 to 2017 has been huge. Take a look at this.

An 11% decline is his ground ball %, walking more than 1 more batter / 9 innings, and a nearly 2 point increase in his FIP lead to a 5 point decrease in his WAR.
Those are some numbers that definitely paint a picture. I think we can find someone else just as serviceable.

I really want us to get a good lead off guy. Maybe we have someone who can emerge as one, I donít know. Not having one really killed us all year.
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Old Oct 20, 2017, 12:25 PM   #11
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Where #5 comes from is a mystery to me.
Duh, Shohei Otani.

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Old Oct 20, 2017, 12:54 PM   #12
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Duh, Shohei Otani.


Two birds with him, as it solves the rotation deficit and the offensive production in the OF.

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Old Oct 20, 2017, 12:58 PM   #13
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There's a notion floating around that signing Yu Darvish increases your chances with Otani. Is that a thing, or just assumption?

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Old Oct 20, 2017, 01:13 PM   #14
Shane Walsh
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Originally Posted by KBLEE View Post
FTFY

Arrieta's decline from 2015 to 2017 has been huge. Take a look at this.

An 11% decline is his ground ball %, walking more than 1 more batter / 9 innings, and a nearly 2 point increase in his FIP lead to a 5 point decrease in his WAR.
Fair enough, but a 2.4 WAR is only .3 less than Jon Lester's 2.7.
Arrieta was better than Lester in BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB.
Is he past his prime too?

I never said we should break the bank for Arrieta, but if the market is soft for him due to these stats why would we not be interested?

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...nd=0&page=2_30

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Old Oct 20, 2017, 01:15 PM   #15
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I never said we should break the bank for Arrieta, but if the market is soft for him due to these stats why would we not be interested?
Because he's gonna want a 5+ year contract. If you can get him for less than 5, I'd consider it.
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Old Oct 20, 2017, 02:20 PM   #16
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The odds of the Cubs re-signing Arrietta are lower than Ayo de-committing and going to Parkland.

That bridge is burned. Same reason Bryant will likely not sign the Trout/ Longoria/ Pujols pre-arbitration extension and will almost certainly hit FA at the first available opportunity.
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Old Oct 23, 2017, 09:57 AM   #17
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The odds of the Cubs re-signing Arrietta are lower than Ayo de-committing and going to Parkland.

That bridge is burned. Same reason Bryant will likely not sign the Trout/ Longoria/ Pujols pre-arbitration extension and will almost certainly hit FA at the first available opportunity.
This post made me laugh and sad at the same time.

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Old Oct 23, 2017, 12:03 PM   #18
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First offseason shoe to drop: Bosio out as pitching coach.
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Old Oct 23, 2017, 01:00 PM   #19
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First offseason shoe to drop: Bosio out as pitching coach.
Understandably so. The pitching wasn't terrible, but the walks were a major concern. It'll be interesting to see who they bring in, especially if it's a Maddon guy.

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Old Oct 23, 2017, 01:17 PM   #20
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Understandably so. The pitching wasn't terrible, but the walks were a major concern. It'll be interesting to see who they bring in, especially if it's a Maddon guy.
Cubs interviewing Jim Hickey today. He was the Rays pitching coach and was with Maddon 8 years there so definitely a Maddon guy. He has (reportedly) already talked with the Cardinals and the Red Sox so it should be interesting to see where he ends up.

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/10/...ing-coach-job/
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Old Oct 23, 2017, 02:44 PM   #21
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Cubs interviewing Jim Hickey today. He was the Rays pitching coach and was with Maddon 8 years there so definitely a Maddon guy. He has (reportedly) already talked with the Cardinals and the Red Sox so it should be interesting to see where he ends up.]
If we want him, I'd be surprised if he wasnt here next year
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Old Oct 23, 2017, 03:37 PM   #22
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If we want him, I'd be surprised if he wasnt here next year
Yep. Hope it happens.

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Old Oct 23, 2017, 09:10 PM   #23
champaignchris
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Hinske (1B coach) is leaving to become the hitting coach of the Angels. Nice promotion for him.

Martinez (bench coach) is interviewing for the Nat's manager job.

The inevitable brain drain is coming as less successful organizations look to get some of what the Cubs got. It's just a matter of time before someone offers McLeod or Hoyer a President of Baseball Ops position. Fortunately, I trust Maddon and Epstein to hire good replacements and Ricketts has not been shy about ponying up good dough to have a top flight staff.
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Old Oct 23, 2017, 10:07 PM   #24
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It's just a matter of time before someone offers McLeod or Hoyer a President of Baseball Ops position.
I've heard they've already been pursued and thus far have chosen to stay. Obviously, that doesn't go on forever, but speaks to what the Cubs have going.

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Old Oct 24, 2017, 03:30 AM   #25
Thor015
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Pitching #1. And swagger. Need those both
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