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Old May 4, 2008, 04:01 PM   #1
james81
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 4,884
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/m.../04/do0405.xml

I found this an interesting article that summarizes some recent data regarding global warming.
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Old May 4, 2008, 04:23 PM   #2
Illini1956
Banned
Location: Ohio
Posts: 5,758
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

THE GLOBAL WARMING HOAX
The official position of the World Natural Health Organization in regards to global warming is that there is NO GLOBAL WARMING! Global warming is nothing more than just another hoax, just like Y2K and the global freezing claims in the 1960's and 70's were. Global warming is being used to generate fear and panic. Those behind this movement are using it to control people's lives and for financial gain.

There are not a lot of individuals, groups, or organizations willing to stand up against this fraud that is being perpetuated for fear of being persecuted, harassed, and ostracized by those that support global warming the scientific and other communities. But fortunately, a few have decided to do the right this and take a stand against this evil, proving just how unscientifically sounded global warming is and exposing those who are behind it. Below, you will find links to information and articles showing the proof that global warming is nothing more than just a bunch of hot air (pun intended).

The dates that you see by each headline are the date when it was posted here. If you know if a news story, research, or information that should be posted here, please let us know what it is and please provide us with a link. The articles posted for previous years have been archived and links are provided to them, by year, at the bottom of this page.


01 May 2008 - Al Gore's Global Warming Debunked - By Kids!: Winners Announced In 'The Sky's Not Falling' Video-Essay Contest

01 May 2008 - Ethanol, Food Shortages And The Real Cost Of Climate Alarmism

28 Mar 2008 - Can't Dispute The Facts? Smear Them

28 Mar 2008 - Ethanol Obsession Kills Local Business

28 Mar 2008 - ABC's Shameful Global Warming Character Assassination

27 Mar 2008 - The Ice Is Falling!!-SO?

27 Mar 2008 - Scientists Criticize News Story On Antarctic Ice Loss

26 Mar 2008 - How Lies Killed A Small Town

26 Mar 2008 - NYT Admits Frogs Not Global Warming Victims

26 Mar 2008 - You Can Come Home Greenpeace: Global Warming Is A Myth Too!

26 Mar 2008 - Time For Gore To Throw In The Towel

25 Mar 2008 - James J. Jackson: Truth 'Inconvenient' For Enviro-Crowd - Gore And His Ilk Profit By Ignoring Facts About Earth

25 Mar 2008 - American Media Ignores Inconvenient Science On Global Warming

24 Mar 2008 - Global Warming: Hoax, Hype & Hidden Agenda, Part I

24 Mar 2008 - Big Money In Global Warming

21 Mar 2008 - Fixing Global Warming, At What Cost?

21 Mar 2008 - Al Gore's 10 Errors Old And New

19 Mar 2008 - Global Warming Hoax Is A Stale Old Scare Warmed Over

17 Mar 2008 - Questions For The Global Warming Believers

17 Mar 2008 - Reducing C02: You Are Next To Go-New Video Added!

17 Mar 2008 - The Forces Of Climate Sanity

17 Mar 2008 - Research Of Hundreds More Scientists Shows The Natural 1,500-Year Climate Cycle

17 Mar 2008 - Plenty of Scientists At Global Warming Conference [More proof as to how the media fails to disclose the whole truth and manipulates that facts!]

14 Mar 2008 - The Great Carbon Offset Swindle-Follow The Money [This article also has an embedded video on the page that is a MUST see!]

14 Mar 2008 - A Really Inconvenient Truth: The Most Inconvenient Truth For Climate Alarmists Is The Burgeoning Number Of Influential Scientists With Dissenting Opinions On Global Warming

14 Mar 2008 - Global Warming Reality

14 Mar 2008 - Rising Food Costs Due To Ethanol Boondoggle

13 Mar 2008 - The Goracle's Global Hypocrisy [Page includes several embedded videos]

13 Mar 2008 - More Evidence Against Ethanol

13 Mar 2008 - It's Not Easy Being Green

12 Mar 2008 - Al Gore's Amen Corner: Beware The GREENS And Their PAGAN god

12 Mar 2008 - You Can Thank The Elitists In Congress For Our Sour Economy!: Food Prices Are Exploding Partially Because Of The "Global Warming" Hoax

11 Mar 2008 - Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Alarmism Join Forces: A Special Video Report Shows That, In Spite Of Claims To The Contrary, There Is No Consensus On Humans Being The Driving Force Behind Climate Change

11 Mar 2008 - The Global Warming Cult

11 Mar 2008 - Biofuel Production Causing Ecological Damage, Food Shortages

11 Mar 2008 - The Epicycles Of Global Warming

11 Mar 2008 - "Virtually Unreported In Britain"

10 Mar 2008 - Manhattan Declaration On Climate Change: "Global Warming" Is Not A Global Crisis

10 Mar 2008 - More Record Snowfall

10 Mar 2008 - Global Warming: Where Do You Take Your Temperature? [Includes an embedded video on the page]

10 Mar 2008 - Global Warming Alarmists Wrong Again!

10 Mar 2008 - Proposed Climate Tampering Could Kill Millions

10 Mar 2008 - Scientists Disclaim Role Of CO2 In Global Warming

07 Mar 2008 - The Media Destruction Machine At Work

07 Mar 2008 - An Extraordinary Event

07 Mar 2008 - The Theory Of Global Warming Has Not Been Conclusively Proved

07 Mar 2008 - Global Warming Scam Dealt Another Death Blow

06 Mar 2008 - Weather Channel Founder: Sue Al Gore To Expose Global Warming Fraud

05 Mar 2008 - Scientists Meet In NYC To Challenge Gore, U.N.: Hundreds Of Experts Assert 'Alarmists' In Climate Debate 'Have Had Their Say'

04 Mar 2008 - Global Warming: Is It Real? Take The Test

04 Mar 2008 - Calm Sun, Cold Earth

04 Mar 2008 - Global Warming Or Global Governance? [Not the same article as the one directly below with the same name]

04 Mar 2008 - Global Warming Or Global Governance?

03 Mar 2008 - The Religion Of Global Warming

03 Mar 2008 - Global Warming: Grain Into Gas Tanks

03 Mar 2008 - Global Warming Looting Is Underway

03 Mar 2008 - To Those Who Will Fight - Global Warming: A Worn Out Hoax

03 Mar 2008 - Seattle Times Falls For The National Hoax, Global Warming

03 Mar 2008 - Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules The Climate

03 Mar 2008 - Global Warming Visuals Often Distort Scientific Data

28 Feb 2008 - The Manmade Global Warming Hoax Thrives On Faith, Not Facts

28 Feb 2008 - Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling

28 Feb 2008 - The Problem With Global Warming: It's Bad For Science

28 Feb 2008 - So-Called Global Warming Has Ended, The Earth Is Now Cooling

27 Feb 2008 - Global Warming Wrong Again

26 Feb 2008 - Climate Orthodoxy Perpetrates A Hoax

26 Feb 2008 - Editorial: The Great Global Warming Hoax?

26 Feb 2008 - Global Warming Hoax Update: Al Gore Is Losing Money

26 Feb 2008 - Critic Cites Stats -- Earth Cooling Down, Not Warming Up

26 Feb 2008 - Forget Global Warming: Welcome To The New Ice Age

26 Feb 2008 - Global Warming To Take A Cold Shower In New York

25 Feb 2008 - The Virtues Of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

25 Feb 2008 - Real Science Declares, "Global Warming Is Dead!"

21 Feb 2008 - So Much For Global Warming

21 Feb 2008 - Global Warming Myths Create Panic

21 Feb 2008 - Al Gore: Give The Nobel Prize Back!

21 Feb 2008 - Garbage In, Garbage Out: More Bad Warming Data - Another Temperature-Monitor Station Riddled With Problems, Says Meteorologist [More proof that the cult of global warming does not care about the truth. They only want to push their false beliefs and lies on everyone!]

20 Feb 2008 - Global Warming? New Data Shows Ice Is Back: Massive Growth In Polar Ice

19 Feb 2008 - Error Theory: Global Warming Alarmists Knew Cooling Was Coming, Were Hoping To Secure Restrictions On Economic Activity First

18 Feb 2008 - California Schools May Require Global Warming To Be Taught In Class [More brainwashing from the cult of global warming!]

18 Feb 2008 - Global Warming: A Worn Out Hoax - Wheat Stores At 60 Year Low! Wheat Hits $20 Per Bushel!

18 Feb 2008 - Global Warming: The Greatest Hoax Ever - Part 2

18 Feb 2008 - Calm Sun, Cold Earth

15 Feb 2008 - The Global Warming Crisis/Hoax/Hubbub/Circus/ - An Update

14 Feb 2008 - It's The Sun, Stupid: Harvard Astrophysicist Dr. Sally Bulinas Is The Latest Distinguished Scientist To Declare Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory Wrong

14 Feb 2008 - The Other Side Of The Global Warming "Crisis"

12 Feb 2008 - Canadian Environmental Guru: Jail Politicians Who Deny Climate Change [More attempts to force people to accept the LIES of the global warming cult!!!]

12 Feb 2008 - Record Cold For Northern Minn.: 40 Below [I wonder what happened to the so-called global warming? This is just more proof of the lies of the global warming cult!!!]

11 Feb 2008 - Ice Age Or Lie Age?

11 Feb 2008 - More Antarctic Drama Put In Context - Early 1900's Explorer Proves The Antarctic Is Growing [Even more proof that the so-called global warming is nothing but a LIE!!!]

11 Feb 2008 - Shrinking Snowpacks? Global Warmers Should Look Outside

11 Feb 2008 - Denmark's Largest Daily Challenges Hoax, But Falls Short Of Gorey Intention

08 Feb 2008 - EU Target On Global Warming To 'Change Irish Lifestyle' [More problems arising from the lies of the Global Warming Cult!!!]

07 Feb 2008 - Debunking The Myth, Part 29: 1,500 Years Of Arctic Cooling

06 Feb 2008 - A Dangerous Movement Sweeps The Nation

04 Feb 2008 - Chicken-Gore-Little's Polar Bear Picture

04 Feb 2008 - Global Warming: Case Closed?

04 Feb 2008 - Expert Comment: Proposal To List Polar Bears As "Threatened" Is Flawed

04 Feb 2008 - Clinton, Keeping Us Up-To-Date With Global Warming

04 Feb 2008 - Greenies Attack A Scientific Conference

01 Feb 2008 - Fake Temperature Record In China Behind Gore's Climate Fraud

01 Feb 2008 - Moonbats Attempt To Focus The Nation On Global Warming Hoax

01 Feb 2008 - Velasco: Feedback - Reactions To A Recent Column Article On Global Warming And Climate Change By Diana B. Velasco

31 Jan 2008 - The Real Life Effects Of The Global Warming Hoax

31 Jan 2008 - Letter: Global Warming: 'It's A hoax'

31 Jan 2008 - Colleges Plot Global Warming Indoctrination [And we see the cult of global warming using yet another cult tactic to start the brainwashing process!]

31 Jan 2008 - The Dangerous Rise Of Carbon Fundamentalism

30 Jan 2008 - Global Warming Hoax Right On

29 Jan 2008 - Response To Critiques Of U.S. Senate 'Consensus Busters' Report By Eli Rabett, Andrew Dessler And Raymond Pierrehumbert

28 Jan 2008 - The Global Warming Hoax Continues

28 Jan 2008 - Just How Crazy Is Al Gore?

26 Jan 2008 - Bono Praises "Father Al." See? Global Warming Is A Religion!

26 Jan 2008 - How The Environmental Extremists Manipulate The Masses

25 Jan 2008 - It's A HOAX, Folks

25 Jan 2008 - Al Gore Gets Desperate In Davos

25 Jan 2008 - 30,000 Children Die Each Day In The World From Disease And Malnutrition

25 Jan 2008 - British MEPs Say Global Warming Is Bunk [Brings up some really god points about just how FALSE global warming is!]

23 Jan 2008 - Now Experts Say Global Warming Suppresses Hurricanes [More proof that these so-called "experts" have no idea what they are talking about and are making it up as they go!]

21 Jan 2008 - Velasco: Climate change, Is It Real?

21 Jan 2008 - State's Politicos Lead Way In Spreading Global-Warming Hoax

19 Jan 2008 - Global Warming Is Hoax That Has Become Dogma [That is the way it is with any cult!]

19 Jan 2008 - Ten Reasons I Don't Buy Into The Global Warming Hype

19 Jan 2008 - Global Warming Moonbats In The Snow

19 Jan 2008 - Who Needs Electricity?

18 Jan 2008 - Environmental Effects Of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (Updated)

18 Jan 2008 - Texas Leads In Energy Productivity, Moonbats Appalled

17 Jan 2008 - Global warming: A Russian Study

16 Jan 2008 - Enter Contest, Debunk 'Global Warming,' Win Big: Announcing 'The Sky's Not Falling' Video/Essay Competition

19 Jan 2008 - More Antarctic Drama Put In Context - Early 19th Century Explorer Proves The Antarctic Is Growing

14 Jan 2008 - Global Warming Makes It Snow In Baghdad

14 Jan 2008 - Another Nail In The Global Warming Hoax

14 Jan 2008 - A Visualization Of the Urban Legend Called, Man Made Global Warming

11 Jan 2008 - The Global Warming Hoax Is Getting More Obvious

11 Jan 2008 - A First! Snow Falls In Baghdad [Gee what happened to the so-called global warming? More proof that it is nothing more than just a HOAX!!!]

10 Jan 2008 - U.S. Senate Report: Over 400 Prominent Scientists Disputed Man-Made Global Warming Claims In 2007 - Senate Report Debunks "Consensus"

10 Jan 2008 - Our Global Warming 'Animal Farm'

10 Jan 2008 - The Sun: An Inconvenient Cold

10 Jan 2008 - Pat Sajak Solves the Global Warming Crisis

09 Jan 2008 - Letter: Man-Caused Global Warming A Hoax

08 Jan 2008 - Bush Turns Green With New Legislation [More nonsense from the Capital!]

07 Jan 2008 - Br-r-r! Where Did Global Warming Go?

07 Jan 2008 - Twilight Zone Predicted Global Warming Hoax

04 Jan 2008 - Liberty, Incandescent Lightbulbs And The Global Warming Hoax

04 Jan 2008 - United Nations Rolls Out Liberal Agenda For 2008: Abortion And Global Warming Rise To The Top Of The List

03 Jan 2008 - Starting The Year With The Big Lie

03 Jan 2008 - Snow In Florida? Would I Kid You?


The Global Warming Hoax Archives:

The Global Warming Hoax - 2007
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Old May 4, 2008, 04:45 PM   #3
Illini1956
Banned
Location: Ohio
Posts: 5,758
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

BTW
Gores farcical movie had to make several changes to improve accuracy before being shown to British school children.
Follies in Measuring Global Warming III
Hansen’s Lights = 0 Temperature Stations In New England
Admin, Monday 27 August 2007 - 01:00:00

Follies in Measuring Global Warming III
Hansen’s Lights = 0 Temperature Stations In New England

Once upon a time James Hanson and co-workers at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) had a bright idea (pardon the pun) on how to separate urban temperature stations from rural temperature stations. Scientists needed to eliminate the heat island effect from urban stations. NASA satellites were used to get photos of the Earth at nighttime, showing where people have lights near homes, buildings, and streets. This is how NASA GISS was able to locate rural and urban temperature stations. By comparing the rural and urban temperatures, NASA GISS could make adjustments to the temperature record.


NASA Urban Light Map

Unfortunately, the satellite used by Hansen and GISS didn’t have a zoom feature, because if it did, they would have seen the obvious problems that exist at the National Weather Service Coop stations used in their global warming studies.

We have all seen Anthony Watts’ Happy Camp Ranger Station where NASA’s lights = 0, but air conditioners within 100 feet of the temperature station = 22. Not to mention the blacktop, buildings and trees.


How Not to Measure Temperaturel

5 of the temperature stations that were surveyed by KBSF are GISS “lights = 0” stations. Hansen’s “lights = 0” stations in New England are not as bad as Happy Camp but all are in violation of National Weather Service guidelines for station sites.

Acadia National Park, ME
GISS #

NWS violations completely surround this lights = 0 station, whether it’s trees, pavement or cars.


First Connecticut Lake, NH
GISS #

The operator of this site told my volunteer that the temperature at this MMTS is 1 – 2 degrees warmer than at the Nimbus station that is 100 yards away in the same field. He thinks it has something to do with the wind that is blown upslope from the direction of the highway and funneled between the house on the left and the cottages on the right. The temperature difference could also be from light reflected by the cottages or even bad equipment.

Cavendish, VT
GISS #

NASA Satellites didn’t see any lights at this temperature station, nor did it see the large transformer grid, the concrete slab in front of the station, the trees and buildings that are too close or the roof of the power plant that is 13 feet away.

Cornwall, VT
GISS #

NWS Site Guidelines for temperature stations require that the distance from structures and trees are at least 4 times the height of the structure or trees. This site was approved by the NWS despite the house on one side and the trees on the other which are all too close.


Northfield, VT
GISS #

Lights = 0.
Trees = a few.
Concrete, pavement, electrical and gas powered equipment = plenty.
Knowing the cause of “man made” global warming = priceless.



For this particular set of US temperature data, all the 20th century warming was observed in urban areas, and none was observed in rural areas less affected by urban heat islands, asphalt, cars, air conditioning, etc.
If it can be generalized, this is an amazing conclusion -- it would imply that the sum of US measured warming over the last century could be almost 100% attributed to urban heat islands (a different and more localized effect than CO2 greenhouse gas warming). Perhaps more importantly, outside of the US nearly all of the historical temperature measurement is in urban areas -- no one has 100 year temperature records for the Chinese countryside. However much this effect might be over-stating US temperature increases, it would probably be even more pronounced in measurements in other parts of the word.
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Old May 4, 2008, 05:02 PM   #4
Rachup
Posts: 144
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by james81 View Post
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/m.../04/do0405.xml

I found this an interesting article that summarizes some recent data regarding global warming.
Thank God... I am tired of hearing about global warming from a man who gets paid roughly $100,000 every time he speaks about it and lives one of the most pollutant lives in America.

Don't get me wrong, I think we should continue to become more energy efficient and cut CO2 emissions, but I don't believe it is causing global warming and I am sick of hearing about it from all these rich people who tell us to conserve while they do the opposite.
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Old May 4, 2008, 05:48 PM   #5
Illest
Posts: 6,770
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Once again, if you'd like to know what the scientific community believes about global warming, the contact information for the faculty in atmospheric sciences at the U of I is here:

http://www.atmos.uiuc.edu/people/faculty.html

Pick a couple of names or faces you like, and drop them an email or a phone call to hear what they think.

And, until you do so, please don't post here. Discussions don't benefit from uninformed or misleading posts.
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Old May 4, 2008, 05:56 PM   #6
Illest
Posts: 6,770
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

By the way, the original article in this thread is rightfully placed in the "opinion" section of the Telegraph, because the framing of the article is transparent in its attempt to deny the consensus opinion of the scientific community. Witness, for example, how the article uses a study that concludes that "the world is definitely warming" to argue that somehow scientists are no longer sure that the world is warming.

The argument of the article depends on the idea that, for global warming to be real, the world must get warmer and warmer every year. But that needn't be the case. If the globe gets warmer seven out of every ten years, we've got a major long-term problem on our hands.

The mechanism for global warming is basic science -- molecules with a dipole, or that can be bent into a dipole, reflect infrared radiation, but not visible radiation. The evidence accumulated over the last century is completely consistent with the predictions made based on that basic science. Why is it so hard to accept that we should be doing something?
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Old May 4, 2008, 06:14 PM   #7
Illest
Posts: 6,770
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

For clarification, here's the abstract of the Nature article:

Quote:
The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic1, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America2, Europe3 and northern Africa4. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known5, 6, 7, the lack of subsurface ocean observations8 that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions9. Here we apply a simple approach—that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations—to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state10, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.
The article posted at the start of this thread presents temporary cooling as being inconsistent with previous models of climate change. But, if scientists say that an entire decade of mild cooling from current temperatures is entirely consistent with existing models of climate change, then why does a smattering of local and regional evidence from the last year constitute a contradiction of the consensus view of the scientific community?

The secret is in looking at the author, Christopher Booker. If you check it out (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Booker), it turns out that he has no scientific background, and that he got his start in journalism as a jazz critic. Yet here he is, writing an article whose obvious implication is that he knows more about climate than the people who spend their lives studying it.
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Old May 4, 2008, 06:42 PM   #8
Illini1956
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Location: Ohio
Posts: 5,758
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Nature and sun cycles have far more effect than man ever will on the environment. Around 1900 a volcano erupted and did effect the weather.

The air around Pittsburgh, Cleveland and other industrial cities used to be heavy with smoke and soot. The air now is clear and yet we are lead to believe that the environment has gotten worse. I realize you can find some professors to advocate an agenda, when they are more likely to get government grants if you toe the party line. I imagine many years ago, you could get a concensus that the world was flat by the learned leaders.
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Old May 4, 2008, 06:54 PM   #9
Illest
Posts: 6,770
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Illini1956 View Post
Nature and sun cycles have far more effect than man ever will on the environment. Around 1900 a volcano erupted and did effect the weather.

The air around Pittsburgh, Cleveland and other industrial cities used to be heavy with smoke and soot. The air now is clear and yet we are lead to believe that the environment has gotten worse. I realize you can find some professors to advocate an agenda, when they are more likely to get government grants if you toe the party line. I imagine many years ago, you could get a concensus that the world was flat by the learned leaders.
Actually, the flat earth is a great example of why experts are more, well, expert than laymen. It's been known since the time of the Greeks that the earth was round, but that knowledge was only accepted during the Middle Ages by the relatively small number of people with educations.

Basically, there are two arguments for why we shouldn't treat the consensus scientific view on climate change as accurate:

1) The consensus view isn't actually the consensus view.

2) Scientists don't know what they're talking about.

The first complaint is silly to anyone who's actually talked with a few scientists -- as I recommend you do, if you believe #1. Contact info for scientists at the U of I is posted above, but you can find contact info for other institutions on the web, too.

And ther second complaint is also a little silly. Inherent in the claim that scientists don't know what they're talking about is the idea that laypeople know more. But we'd excoriate someone who, with a seriously sick child, presumed to know more than their doctor. We'd rip a politician to shreds if they thought they knew more about combat strategy than generals. So why is it suddenly fine to ignore the consensus opinion of experts in this situation?

If you accept that the two reasons above are bad reasons to doubt the consensus, and if you can't think of any other reason to doubt the consensus, then I'd suggest we ought to stop arguing about whether or not global warming is real, and we should start doing something about it.
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Old May 5, 2008, 05:49 AM   #10
IntenselyOrange
Posts: 7,125
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Illest View Post
Actually, the flat earth is a great example of why experts are more, well, expert than laymen. It's been known since the time of the Greeks that the earth was round, but that knowledge was only accepted during the Middle Ages by the relatively small number of people with educations.

Basically, there are two arguments for why we shouldn't treat the consensus scientific view on climate change as accurate:

1) The consensus view isn't actually the consensus view.

2) Scientists don't know what they're talking about.

The first complaint is silly to anyone who's actually talked with a few scientists -- as I recommend you do, if you believe #1. Contact info for scientists at the U of I is posted above, but you can find contact info for other institutions on the web, too.

And ther second complaint is also a little silly. Inherent in the claim that scientists don't know what they're talking about is the idea that laypeople know more. But we'd excoriate someone who, with a seriously sick child, presumed to know more than their doctor. We'd rip a politician to shreds if they thought they knew more about combat strategy than generals. So why is it suddenly fine to ignore the consensus opinion of experts in this situation?

If you accept that the two reasons above are bad reasons to doubt the consensus, and if you can't think of any other reason to doubt the consensus, then I'd suggest we ought to stop arguing about whether or not global warming is real, and we should start doing something about it.

Let me start by saying Illest that I agree with nearly all of what you say in this thread - are you yourself an environmental scientist? I ask because you seem to get worked up when this subject has come up on other threads. Global warming is very real and we are contributing. In 1956's defense he has latched on to the fact that the earth's climate does oscillate but refuses to recognize that even with this being true, we are hastening and strengthening the current warming to dangerous proportions.

The one point I disagree with is your argument that scientists should not be questioned. Scientists need to be questioned not only by one another, but by the public as well. There are many examples in science where hypotheses have become consensus without actual data. In those cases only by a scientist accidentally stumbling onto new data does the consensus change - and even then it comes with great resistance. Of course, pointed questions are much different than incoherent and unproductive babel that typically ensues on this issue.
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Old May 5, 2008, 07:34 AM   #11
Illest
Posts: 6,770
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by IntenselyOrange View Post
Let me start by saying Illest that I agree with nearly all of what you say in this thread - are you yourself an environmental scientist? I ask because you seem to get worked up when this subject has come up on other threads. Global warming is very real and we are contributing. In 1956's defense he has latched on to the fact that the earth's climate does oscillate but refuses to recognize that even with this being true, we are hastening and strengthening the current warming to dangerous proportions.

The one point I disagree with is your argument that scientists should not be questioned. Scientists need to be questioned not only by one another, but by the public as well. There are many examples in science where hypotheses have become consensus without actual data. In those cases only by a scientist accidentally stumbling onto new data does the consensus change - and even then it comes with great resistance. Of course, pointed questions are much different than incoherent and unproductive babel that typically ensues on this issue.
I'm not an environmental scientist, but I know several, as well as a couple of people who study global warming from the economic side. My confidence and my frustration comes from the conversations I've had with them. Plus, I stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night.

I'm certainly not arguing that scientists are always right. Nobody's always right. But I don't think that people with no background in a complicated discipline can reasonably be considered referees. Many things in science don't make much sense, like quantum mechanics or relativity, yet the fact that they're hard to understand or conflict with our gut instinct doesn't make them not true.

Besides, you don't need 100% confidence that climate change is real to recognize that it's time to do something. If I told you there was a even just a 30% chance that your house would burn down next week, you'd get your stuff out. Many people didn't believe the hurricane forecasters who told them to get the heck out of New Orleans before Katrina hit.

And, if that isn't enough, the use of the fuels that are creating the problem has all kinds of other nasty side effects, ranging from the acidification of the oceans to the impact on our foreign policy.

Overall point is, we really ought to be doing something.
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Old May 7, 2008, 02:34 PM   #12
mikeinchicago
Posts: 811
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Illest View Post
Besides, you don't need 100% confidence that climate change is real to recognize that it's time to do something. If I told you there was a even just a 30% chance that your house would burn down next week, you'd get your stuff out. Many people didn't believe the hurricane forecasters who told them to get the heck out of New Orleans before Katrina hit.

And, if that isn't enough, the use of the fuels that are creating the problem has all kinds of other nasty side effects, ranging from the acidification of the oceans to the impact on our foreign policy.

Overall point is, we really ought to be doing something.
This is the point I make to non believers. What if there were only a 5% chance that global warming was indeed true. Wouldn't that be enough of a reason to get on board? When dealing with human extinction I would think a 5% chance would get your attention, but that's just me thinking of people that will be here after me.
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Old May 7, 2008, 05:22 PM   #13
Illini1956
Banned
Location: Ohio
Posts: 5,758
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

The effects on our economy and socirty if we aduopt Kyoto would be devastating. We have had numerous ice ages and eventual warm ups with no human influence. As I recall all the "scientists" were absolutely certain we were headed into an ice age in a short time back in the late 60's.

The part that really get me is the so called experts like Al Gore jetting around in private planes, using 20 -25 times more energy on his main home, and profiting as he laughs his way to the bank. I am sure chicken little felt there was a greater than 5% chance of the sky falling. We did not keep great records in the past, but there was a dark period with a drop in temp than killed a lot of people in the middle ages.
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Old May 8, 2008, 11:09 AM   #14
mikeinchicago
Posts: 811
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Illini1956 View Post
The effects on our economy and socirty if we aduopt Kyoto would be devastating.
How would not having human life affect the economy?
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Old May 8, 2008, 11:28 AM   #15
Illest
Posts: 6,770
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Illini1956 View Post
As I recall all the "scientists" were absolutely certain we were headed into an ice age in a short time back in the late 60's.
I actually have on my bookshelf a copy of an article from that time in Foreign Affairs discussing how atmospheric CO2 levels would likely lead to warming. The "ice age" prediction was simply an observation by some scientists that we're on the warmer end right now of a so-called Milankovitch cycle, and that, over the course of some number of years, absent major changes to the climate system, the earth would likely fall into an ice age. That statement was true, but, in the years since, as we've actually collected more data and learned about how climate works, it's become abundantly clear that massive greenhouse gas emissions constitute major changes to the climate system that completely disrupt the chain of events that lead to Milankovitch cycles.

Point is, at that time, there was evidence of a long-term trend towards cooling, while there was also a major strand of thought emerging that was concerned with short-term warming. Over the intervening years, the evidence that's accumulated has decisively shown that the warming effect is a far greater concern.
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Old May 9, 2008, 11:38 AM   #16
rsillini
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Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

The world population is currently estimated to be over 6.6 billion people. Humans pump billions of tons of pollutants into the air, dump billions of gallons of pollutants into our rivers, lakes and oceans and burry billions of tons of pollutants in the ground. The US EPA and State regulatory agencies do not outlaw the dumping of waste, they issue permits detailing how much waste can be dumped. Most countries have little or no environmental regulation. Anyone who denies the deleterious impact of humans on our air, surface water, groundwater and environment as a whole, is either intellectually dishonest or na?ve beyond all reason. My local newspaper which is owned by folks in Orange County, CA prints an editorial at least once a month denouncing the existence of global warming. They too often predict economic and social ruin if we address global warming though they never explain why or how it will occur. I can only guess that it is their personal economic and social ruin they somehow envision occurring if we address global warming and it is their own personal well being they are concerned about.
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Old May 19, 2008, 11:37 AM   #17
mikeinchicago
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Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Once again, Bush has politicized this issue. He systematically either hid data or made up data so he could push his agenda. (Sound familiar Iraq?) In the case of global warming he hired a unqualified individual to the position of chief of staff for the White House Council on Environmental Quality. (Sound familiar FEMA?) He hired Philip Cooney to this position. What were his qualifications? He was the "climate team leader" and a lobbyist at the American Petroleum Institute, the largest trade group representing the interests of the oil industry. A lawyer with a bachelor's degree in economics, he has no scientific training. Cooney repeatedly removed or adjusted descriptions of climate research that government scientists and their supervisors, including some senior Bush administration officials, had already approved. In many cases, the changes appeared in the final reports. The American Petroleum Institute, where Mr. Cooney worked before going to the White House, has long taken a sharply different view. Starting with the negotiations leading to the Kyoto Protocol climate treaty in 1997, it has promoted the idea that lingering uncertainties in climate science justify delaying restrictions on emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping smokestack and tailpipe gases. Once the story broke of Cooney tampering with sceintific findings, he resigned. (Sound familiar Alberto Gonzales , Michael Brown and Harriet Myers?) Two days after he resigned, Cooney took a job with ExonnMobile.
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Old May 19, 2008, 11:47 AM   #18
mikeinchicago
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Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Illini1956 View Post
Nature and sun cycles have far more effect than man ever will on the environment. Around 1900 a volcano erupted and did effect the weather.

The air around Pittsburgh, Cleveland and other industrial cities used to be heavy with smoke and soot. The air now is clear and yet we are lead to believe that the environment has gotten worse. I realize you can find some professors to advocate an agenda, when they are more likely to get government grants if you toe the party line. I imagine many years ago, you could get a concensus that the world was flat by the learned leaders.
It is a fact that CO2 levels in the atmosphere and global temps are directly related. To say that CO2 levels and temps are not related is like putting a wool blanket over the world and then saying that it won't have any affect on temperature. A intelligent debate could not take place over the direct relationship between CO2 and temps.

It is also a fact that the levels of CO2 that we pump into the air have increased dramatically.

So, please, tell me how you don't believe it?

Also, what agenda is being pushed by people who 'believe' in global warming?
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Old May 19, 2008, 05:54 PM   #19
Illini1956
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Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

I have heard several reports that we are in a 15 - 20 year cooling cycle. Somehow this cycle is taken as proof of global warming.

Agenda seems to be the Kyoto treaty, which will hamper and take away our manufacturig, while building up third world country mfg with no environmental controls. The working middle class better take note of even more foriegn mfg and the sharp icrease of gasoline prices since the Dem congressional takeover. I do not regard the horse and buggy as a positive change.
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Old May 20, 2008, 09:53 AM   #20
mikeinchicago
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Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

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Originally Posted by Illini1956 View Post
I have heard several reports that we are in a 15 - 20 year cooling cycle. Somehow this cycle is taken as proof of global warming. .
I asked the following:

It is a fact that CO2 levels in the atmosphere and global temps are directly related. To say that CO2 levels and temps are not related is like putting a wool blanket over the world and then saying that it won't have any affect on temperature. A intelligent debate could not take place over the direct relationship between CO2 and temps.

It is also a fact that the levels of CO2 that we pump into the air have increased dramatically.

So, please, tell me how you don't believe it?

And you respond with this? Do you know what global warming is? Global warming does not mean the earth is cooling. How do you justify having such a strong close minded opinion on something that you have done absolutely no homework on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Illini1956 View Post
Agenda seems to be the Kyoto treaty, which will hamper and take away our manufacturig, while building up third world country mfg with no environmental controls. The working middle class better take note of even more foriegn mfg and the sharp icrease of gasoline prices since the Dem congressional takeover. I do not regard the horse and buggy as a positive change.
So you believe that people who understand global warming want to take away our manufacturing and build up 3rd world countries? Say that out loud slowly and then ask yourself if that makes any sense.
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Old Jun 2, 2008, 11:43 AM   #21
mikeinchicago
Posts: 811
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Bush continues to put the cart in front of the horse on this issue. He now acknowledges that global warming exists, but continues to believe the economy is more important than the earth.

By H. JOSEF HEBERT | Associated Press Writer
11:45 AM CDT, June 2, 2008

WASHINGTON - President Bush weighed in Monday against a Senate bill that would require dramatic cuts in climate-changing greenhouse pollution, cautioning senators "to be very careful about running up enormous costs for future generations of Americans."


If Florida no longer exists how much will that cost? What about Manhattan? If that is under water what will that cost us?
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Old Jun 3, 2008, 07:32 AM   #22
IntenselyOrange
Posts: 7,125
Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Here's the problem mikeinchicago, those who do not want to accept catastrophic global warming can always hide behind the argument that the data on global warming is debatable (there are scientists who think it is just a cycle) and largely correlative rather than causitive. Most of us accept reality but if doubters are given anything to hold onto, they will.

One of the largest arguments of the doubter is that the climate cycles. While this is true, the earth is warming at a rate faster than has ever been measured. More importantly many fail to realize that the earth has undergone large scale climate changes in its history - changes that if they occured today would wipe out much of humanity. For example about 600 million years ago the earth was almost completely frozen. Fairly rapidly, some estimates are on the order of 1000 years, most of the glaciers melted. Obviously humans did not cause this climate change which would seem to argue that cyclical changes are the dominant cause of climate change. While that may be the case a recent report in the highly respected scientific journal, Nature, suggests that a rapid release of methane caused the rapid heating. It was a feedback mechanism where as the earth warmed, some methane was released which warmed the earth more and released more methane. This is important because methane is ~50X as efficient a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide. More importantly we are now seeing a measurable release of methane from the "permafrost" region of Russia.

I guess the point of this long post is that while humans may not solely be causing warming, global warming is occurring and it may soon reach a point of no return - some environmental scientists think we're already there. I know you're not the one that needs the preaching, but hopefully others will read this and understand.
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Old Jun 4, 2008, 01:49 PM   #23
KBLEE
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Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

Hmmm...anyone care to explain why Chicago just had the coldest month of May in the last 25 years? Global warming is a theory that has not been proven. Climate changes are cyclical. Always have been - always will be. Illest likes to cite the "scientific community", but he fails to note that there are just as many in the scientific community that refuse to acknowledge that global warming is a valid concern.
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Old Jun 4, 2008, 01:57 PM   #24
BananaShampoo
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Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

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Hmmm...anyone care to explain why Chicago just had the coldest month of May in the last 25 years? Global warming is a theory that has not been proven. Climate changes are cyclical. Always have been - always will be. Illest likes to cite the "scientific community", but he fails to note that there are just as many in the scientific community that refuse to acknowledge that global warming is a valid concern.
Wow. 25 years. That's quite a sample size in the universal timeline. Well, I guess that just disproves the whole global warming thing right there.

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Old Jun 4, 2008, 02:03 PM   #25
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Re: Recent Data on Global Warming Stirs the Pot

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Originally Posted by BananaShampoo View Post
Wow. 25 years. That's quite a sample size in the universal timeline. Well, I guess that just disproves the whole global warming thing right there.
Well - considering that the bulk of the data that all of the global warming alarmists are using only goes back about 150 years, I don't see it as being insignificant. :rolleyes:
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