Illinois vs. Louisville Preview

It was a long time coming, 16 years to be exact, but the Illini are finally back in the Final Four and they don't intend on coming home to Champaign without some hardware.

But before they get to the big game Monday night, they're going to have to get through the Conference USA champion Louisville Cardinals, a high-scoring, athletic team that is motivated by their obvious misplacement as a #4 seed.

Rick Pitino will look to push the offense and play a zone defense that stops the Illini penetration. Coach Weber and the Illini will not change their game much to match Louisville's style. They will continue to rely on man-to-man defense and look to penetrate and kick while in their motion offense. You may see more dumps down low to get James Augustine more involved than he was against Wisconsin-Milwaukee as he could be defended by freshman Juan Diego Palacios, who is smaller than Augustine, but because these teams are so similar, it will be won by the match-ups.

Let's look at the probable matchups...

Roger Powell - 11.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG
vs.
Ellis Myles - 10.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG
It could be switched with Powell vs. Palacios and Myles vs. Augustine, but the length of Palacios means Powell will draw the big, physical Myles. Myles isn't much of an offensive presence, but the main job for Powell in this game will be to keep Myles off the boards. Myles isn't an offensive weapon, but can shut down Powell's post moves. In order to gain the advantage, Powell will have to be able to step out and hit medium range jumpers.
Advantage: Louisville


James Augustine - 10.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG
vs.
Juan Diego Palacios - 10 PPG, 6.6 RPG
This could be another big game for Augustine. Palacios is very athletic but, King James should be able to muscle his way down low just like he did against the lanky Nick Fazekas of Nevada. Palacios' ability to get to the rim may get Augustine in foul trouble, making it imperative that they try and get some points in the paint early. But Palacios' ineffective post defense and inexperience should give Illinois the upper hand.
Advantage: Illinois


Dee Brown - 13.5 PPG, 4.5 APG
vs.
Taquan Dean - 14.5 PPG, 2.5 APG
Brown and Dean are two exciting players who have the ability to change the entire complexion of the game. Both players were key cogs in their respective team's comeback wins last weekend, and will be looked at to spark their squads this week. Brown will hound Dean on defense and try to prevent him from squaring up for three, where he is shooting 47 percent this year and hit seven against West Virginia last week. Brown is quicker than Dean, who has been nursing injuries all season, and will try to get out and run or come off of screens and take the option of penetrating and kicking or spotting up for his much improved jumpshot.
Advantage: Illinois


Luther Head - 15.7 PPG, 3.7 APG
vs.
Larry O' Bannon - 15.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG
Two of the most athletic players in America will go at it. Head showed his guts by playing with a sore hamstring and shutting down Salim Stoudamire in the final stanza of their epic battle with Arizona. Just like Head, O'Bannon is equally adept at taking it to the rim and stepping outside for three, but O'Bannon has shown a higher propensity to drive the lane. Head's lockdown defense should prevent O'Bannon from penetrating or getting out in transition and force him to shoot from the long range. Head, who used to be known for taking it to the rim often, has relied more on the outside shot this year and will be looking to add to his Illinois single-season record total of 105.
Advantage: Illinois


Francisco Garcia - 16 PPG, 4.2 RPG
vs.
Deron Williams - 12.6 PPG, 6.7 APG
This will undoubtedly be the matchup that will make or break the game. Garcia is easily the most complete player on the Cardinals roster and has four inches on Williams, but Williams has handled taller players before. Penn State's Jan Jagla anyone? Garcia is a slasher that can also shoot the trey at NBA range, but the problem for Garcia is foul trouble. He has fouled out of six games this season including last round against West Virginia, but he is also good at drawing opponent's fouls. Of all of the Illinois players, the Illini can least afford to lose Williams and his play-making ability and clutch play. The key for the Illini will be to limit Garcia's penetration and for Williams to break the zone and penetrate the lane trying to draw fouls. Added incentive, besides their team's success, will stem from the fact both players have hinted at entering the NBA Draft following the season making their performances in this game worth that much more. This could be one of the best one-on-one match-ups in Final Four history.
Advantage: Illinois


Bench-
Illinois - Jack Ingram, Rich McBride, Warren Carter, Nick Smith
Vs.
Louisville - Otis George, Brandon Jenkins, Lorenzo Wade
Both teams rely heavily on their starting lineups, but throughout each of their respective seasons, both have had games won by stellar play from their bench (i.e. Jack Ingram vs. Wisconsin). The best bench player in the game is a tossup between Ingram and George. Both are big guys counted on to hit the boards and play defense, George has done so all season while has been playing more and more since the aforementioned Wisconsin tilt, including a key steal last week versus Arizona. Jenkins and George see about twenty minutes per game each and have more important roles in the Louisville scheme. McBride is inconsistent, Carter is inexperienced and Smith has been nowhere to be found recently, but all have had key moments this season meaning they could bounce back from recent struggles anytime.
Advantage: Push


Coaches-
Bruce Weber vs. Rick Pitino
As much as I love Bruce Weber, Pitino has to get the call in this department. This is Weber's first Final Four Trip versus five Final Fours with three different schools and one National Championship at Kentucky for Pitino. Both are intelligent strategists who know how to motivate their team and prepare them for big games, but often in key games like this it comes down to experience, which Pitino has. Weber would be my personal choice, but from an outsider's perspective, Pitino holds the edge.
Advantage: Louisville


Intangibles
Is there any question? 100th year anniversary. 36-1 season. Motivation from sadness (death of Bruce Weber's mother) and anger (Kenny Battle essentially saying the 2004-2005 team couldn't hold the 1988-1989 team's jock). Last week's comeback vs. Arizona. Still being the best team never to win a National Championship. Too many things are going for the Illini right now. Louisville may still be angered by their low seeding, but Illinois holds a big edge in this department and they have all season.
Advantage: Illinois


If the Illini can slow the Cardinals' offensive pace, run their motion offense effectively in order to get through the zone and get some touches in the post, which is Louisville's weakness they should live to see another day. But if the Illini cannot make shots from the outside like West Virginia did against the poor Louisville perimeter defense, it could be a long day against a very worthy opponent. Louisville can score at will when they're on and are very similar to the Illini in personnel, which should make this another interesting game. I just don't see the Illini, who have played a much tougher strength of schedule this year, faltering to the Cardinals.

My prediction - Illini win 82-77.

Filed under: Illini Basketball, Louisville Cardinals