Zags a tough matchup for Illinois

Ken Pomeroy's numbers machine predicts No. 13 Illinois has a 15 percent chance of defeating No. 10 Gonzaga in Spokane on Saturday. Pomeroy, an innovator in basketball statistics, injects no opinion or bias into his projections. Like election wunderkind Nate Silver, Pomeroy's analysis is the product of an algorithm full of statistical inputs.

Those statistics -- including offensive and defensive efficiency and adjusted tempo -- currently rank the Bulldogs (9-0) as the eighth-best team in the country. Illinois, also 9-0, is rated 42nd.

So it makes sense that Pomeroy's numbers, which predict a 76-64 Gonzaga win, project such a small chance of victory for the Illini on the road.

Jeremy Werner