Pregame: Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday, March 28th, 9:09pm CT, TBS

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#701      

CharliedonSurf

C
CharliedonSurf
FoundersClub said:
This was a fun breakdown and prediction

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It seemed like everything they were saying until the end would suggest an ISU victory. I tend to think that getting into any kind of significant hole ( ie double figures) in this match up would be no Bueno. While we have made some great clmebacks recently, i dont think being down in this game is going to necesarrily end up the same. conversely, I feel pretty good about our chances if we get a good size lead early. We have to stay focused and disciplined. No cupcakes from here on out.
 
#703      

fatboyslim

F
fatboyslim
CharliedonSurf said:
It seemed like everything they were saying until the end would suggest an ISU victory. I tend to think that getting into any kind of significant hole ( ie double figures) in this match up would be no Bueno. While we have made some great clmebacks recently, i dont think being down in this game is going to necesarrily end up the same. conversely, I feel pretty good about our chances if we get a good size lead early. We have to stay focused and disciplined. No cupcakes from here on out.
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Although not ideal, we can and have proven we can come back. Our offense is that good and these guys are very confident and don't quit. Our worse loss this year is by 9 points. Iowa St has a very good defense but they are indestructible.
 
#706      

One Man Fast Break

O
One Man Fast Break
Illini-Rule said:
I have a question for all of you guys in the know: I may have missed it, but how deep is ISU's bench?
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They're healthily deep. They have 3 really good Guards - Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones that are good scorers and a menace defensively. They have three big guys in Tre King, Robert Jones and Hason Ward that they rotate comfortably. They have a 6'8 freshman Momcilovic that spaces the floor well and is not a guy you can pick on when they're on defense. We'll also see them bring in Demarion Watson in the 3 spot, another really strong defensive player. They can dip deeper if they really need to with Guard with Jackson Paveletzke and another big in Omaha Biliew, but we'll likely see just those eight in extended minutes. I notice they like to get the three that start on the bench (C. Jones, Ward and Watson) in early in an extended look to get them involved. Lipsey, Gilbert, Momcilovic and King are the four that typically play the most. Game script/matchup goes a long way to how they use everyone else.

More so than their number of rotation players though, they really are deep in the sense of a team that scores by committee. It's not a team with "just stop this guy and you're good". They are very unselfish, move the ball around a lot and have no issues sharing. On any one night, it could be a different player's big day. Look at their points per 100 possessions. https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/iowa-state/men/2024.html#all_per_poss_players. I've never seen an entire roster so closely compacted together in that regard.
 
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#707      

Ramrod2010

R
Ramrod2010
NarrowJ said:
I wanted to look at what teams have done to be successful against Iowa State's defense this season. I went through their schedule and compiled key team stats for any game in which either (a) their opponent scored 70+ points or (b) their opponent won. There was actually only one game (K-State) in which their opponent scored less than 70 but still won the game. As we see below, teams that score 70+ have a 5-5 record against Iowa State. With them being pretty average offensively for a P5 team (Kenpom #49 offense) this is the number you want to reach to have a shot at beating them. That number may be a little higher for us since (a) we will push pace and (b) we are not a great defensive team ourselves.

View attachment 32741

As you can see, you don't necessarily need to hit the three to be successful (nor do you have to shoot extremely well overall). Only 1 game here that their opponent shot over 50% and only 2 of the 11 games the opponent hit over 45% of their 3s and 3 of the 11 games the opponent hit over 40% of their threes.

Largely, you have to make your free throws. We have more guys we can send to the FT line with confidence late in the game than they do, and that is a big, big thing in tight games. We have an advantage there (75% to 69% team FT shooting) and that doesn't seem like much of a discrepancy, but we have guys who drag our percentage down (Dain, Ty) who will be replaced by better FT shooters if we're ahead or in the bonus(+) late in the game - Harmon 91% or Goode.

Outside of TCU, teams that score 70 or win are not really killing them on the glass either. In fact, in 5 of these 11 games Iowa State actually outrebounded their opponent.

Then, turnovers. Looks pretty hit or miss. There's no storyline here, either. Obviously, decision-making and quick passes out of their traps is going to be key. I read somewhere that despite them being the #1 defense, they give up one of the highest assist rates in the nation, and this is due to all of the trapping. Their defensive scheme is polar opposite of our own in that they really want to turn you over whereas we don't focus on turning teams over, but rather limiting the three point shot and trying to force mid-range 2 pointers. With Iowa State not having a great half court offense, this nuance of their trapping defense forcing turnovers actually helps them put points on the board in addition to limiting their opponent's useful possessions.

I don't think they have ran into a team anything like us. I've seen Baylor used as a comparison, but we don't play like Baylor with them being more successful from 3 point range, while we're more successful on 2 point shots and getting to the FT line. I think the two huge, giant, swaying factors in this game will be the turnover margin and how well Iowa State shoots the ball.
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Appreciate the analysis.

I'm going to assume it was early season/figuring things out, but how the hell did DePaul drop 80 on them?
 
#709      

IlliniKat91

IlliniKat91
Chicago, IL
IlliniKat91
God bless the Internet, guys, gals, and non-binary pals:

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I'm sure it's not a complete list, but I'm sure we have more than a few of us who could bring it up to date 😉
 
#710      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
One Man Fast Break said:
For any Iowa St. fans lurking, leaving aside distasteful jokes about criminal charges (that process will be sorted out, we're confident he's not guilty based on what is known, but that's for the judicial system to determine), there were no "grade issues" with Shannon. He was literally Academic All-Big XII two times. He decided to transfer after his Junior year and initially looked like he was going to Michigan. He did not have enough credits to graduate after three years and would have had to enroll as a regular transfer/not a grad transfer. Michigan's academic clearinghouse would not transfer over all of his credits if he enrolled as an undergrad transfer because they cap the number of credits one can transfer, and so he would have lost a lot of progress on his degree. Where it gets murky is he supposedly asked Texas Tech if he could stay on scholarship over the Summer to complete the credits needed to graduate, at which point he could enroll in Michigan as a grad transfer and avoid any situation with his credits. When Texas Tech refused to keep a player on scholarship that was leaving after the spring semester concluded and Michigan wouldn't budge on their credits, he enrolled in Illinois instead. He since completed his degree and returned as a Grad Student.

Recap - Shannon did not have "grade issues", he was not "asked to take summer school to get his grades up" and he did not have any objections with taking courses. It was just a combination of Shannon not wanting to lose the credits he earned, Michigan being stingy on their transfer credit hours and Texas Tech not keeping him on scholarship after the semester in which the season was played concluded so he could go be a grad transfer elsewhere.
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And super importantly, it’s not a forgone conclusion Shannon goes to Michigan if everything with credits work out; the fact they didn’t just made Illinois the obvious choice.
 
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#711      

Gbop

G
Gbop
I’ve watched/listened to/ read just about every matchup breakdown out there. I’ve gone back and forth between cautious optimism that we’ll win comfortably to manic depression that we’ll be stifled by their defense and lose. Not sure where I’m at right now, so I guess I’ll just try and enjoy this game and hope for the best.
 
#713      

SescIllini

SescIllini
SescIllini
Part of me thinks Illinois will win because high powered offenses have faired well in the NCAA, and big games are won by the stars. Illinois has the top player and possibly #2. But Taymon Lipsey has a high motor and someone is going to have to match his intensity, possibly Ty. Iowa State might be a tougher version of what Michigan State gave us that forces us into turnovers late, even Penn State did this.

Ultimately, I believe the team that is "all in" and has high intensity for the full game wins. We can't afford to have passive players, Ty, Harmon and Quincy need to come out swinging. You know TSJ, Domask and Dain will be. Coleman I believe will come out strong as well.
 
#714      

sacraig

sacraig
The desert
sacraig
illiniguy24 said:
It’s a shame going into Thursdays matchup that us fans have to deal with all the chirping that comes along with this situation during what is one of the best seasons in program history. If we beat Iowa St, it’s only going to be highlighted more. Hopefully the media doesn’t do shabby reporting if that ends up being the case.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1772657574925553997
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There are a lot of things that are a shame about this situation. Fans not getting TSJ interviews is pretty far down the list.
 
#715      

SescIllini

SescIllini
SescIllini
From watching the Iowa State/Washington State game, it seems like we will have a size advantage at all positions against ISU. I think this might be an opportunity for Dain to get in to create feed opportunities as their center is a key player in traps (both top of the key and against booth ball on the blocks).

ISU also was able to muscle some points in close to the run, I don't think that will work against the bigger defenders at the guard spot. This would be a great game to have Sincere, but that isn't the case so Ty and Harmon have to be in Lipsey jock strap.
 
#716      

One Man Fast Break

O
One Man Fast Break
One Man Fast Break said:
They're healthily deep....
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One Man Fast Break said:
I notice they like to get the three that start on the bench (C. Jones, Ward and Watson) in early in an extended look to get them involved.
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Further to this, I notice they are constantly subbing. It's hard to keep track of the 5 on the floor because it is almost constantly changing. I imagine that this is a key part of their ability to play such an aggressive style on defense. Nobody gets too tired because they're constantly getting short breaks throughout the half, and there is no dropoff or deficiencies with anybody they bring in. With all the subbing, it's very impressive that it feels like nobody ever gets lost or is unsure of what they're supposed to be doing on offense or defense. Sign of a well-coached team as well as scouting the right type of players for your system.
 
#717      

OrangeKrush1981

OrangeKrush1981
OrangeKrush1981
Gbop said:
I’ve watched/listened to/ read just about every matchup breakdown out there. I’ve gone back and forth between cautious optimism that we’ll win comfortably to manic depression that we’ll be stifled by their defense and lose. Not sure where I’m at right now, so I guess I’ll just try and enjoy this game and hope for the best.
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Michigan is the last school I would have gone to, right out of high school in suburban Chicagoland. Wifey feels same way. ILL .... I have no idea what makes that feeling happen, maybe what's in the water, maybe the angle of the sun on a blustery March morning. No matter, ILL ...
 
#718      

fuggles

F
fuggles
I been thinking about how well Dain has been playing since the beginning of the BTT. And I wanted to go beyond the not missed a shot data. So I went to sports-reference.com to check his ortg of the past 5 games [which is in effect points per 100 possessions]. And wow he has put up some crazy numbers. This is what I found.

OSU 127 in 20 minutes
Nebby 0 in 6 min
Wisky 209 in 23 minutes
Morehead State 202 in 23 minutes
Duq. U 147 in 13 minutes.

1.4-2 ppp are just unreal numbers. Man. I think he can be a huge factor on Thu.
 
#720      

Mobi

M
Mobi
skyIdub said:
Lol....99% of their content is "a decent watch".
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They are more entertaining than technical. However, Greg typically has good insight (or intel) compared to Carl IMO.
 
#724      

illinifan1987

illinifan1987
illinifan1987
Oh No Fire GIF

My prediction is coming in hot! TSJ will get his with 25. This will be the game that catapults Hawkins into a top 40 spot. DD will solidify his starting role for next year. The Beloved win by 8 :hailtotheorange:
 
#725      

MadtownIllin

M
Madison, WI
MadtownIllin
IlliniKat91 said:
God bless the Internet, guys, gals, and non-binary pals:

sportsbars.fandom.com

Illinois Fighting Illini Bars

Fox Sports Grill (Scottsdale); Scottsdale, AZ Double D's Sports Grille; 354 N Santa Cruz Ave, Los Gatos, CA 95030, (408) 395-6882 - doubleds.com Jones Restaurant & Lounge‎; 2400 Lombard St, San Francisco, CA 94123, (415) 440-2000 - jones-sf.com The Point After; 34331 Date Palm Drive, Cathedral...
sportsbars.fandom.com sportsbars.fandom.com

I'm sure it's not a complete list, but I'm sure we have more than a few of us who could bring it up to date 😉
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Just fyi..Fox/Hound Tucson is permanently closed...
 
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