2017 Coaching Carousel

[whovous]

Dude, read the postgame and pregame threads. There are a vocal minority who genuinely think It's Gonna Happen. That's what's making some of us feel like beating our head into the wall. I'm totally fine with the statistical probability of it.

I've read every pre and postgame thread all season long. I think you need to go back at least five games, and probably more than that, to find anyone who genuinely think It's Gonna Happen.

I very much want it to happen, and I think the next four games are all possible wins. Still, I am not willing to bet a dime on that thought unless someone gives me some triple digit odds. I don't think anyone on this forum is still holding their breath on this.

 

[Greensboro]

I am not on the koolaid. I think he is gone. In order to make the tournament, Illinois would have to win the last five in the regular season and at least two in the BTT tournament. The last time we beat 7 BT teams in a row was 2005.

I do think if we make the tournament that Groce stays for at least another year, though.

2 of those are in the book though. But if you draw the line at winning 2 in tournament puts you in an interesting spot. So going forward, I think it is close enough to call the last 3 conference games 50-50, so 1 in 8 to win out (also 1 in 8 to lose out). If we do manage to get through the regular season though that puts you mid pack big ten, fair shot at a 7 - 8 seed range; 7-10 seeds look like they will have to play through Purdue/Wisconsin, climb to a 6 seed or fall to an 11 and you play through Maryland by today's standings(but 11 has 2 games to MD); so 6 - 11 seed gets a warm up game (or 2 for an 11), another 50-50 (1 in 16); then you go into Friday likely playing a big boy (currently top 25 teams)that isn't a 50-50 game, that has you in the conversation; if it isn't enough & you have to win Saturday, if your the 6-11 seed you likely get to play the other 2/3, if your 7-8, you get the 4 seed (likely NU/MSU/Minn) which certainly sounds a little better...but just getting to Saturday looks like a minor miracle.

 

[The Dave]

How about a new coaching possibility? He has 1 year of HS coaching and apparently recruits real well nation-wide at the HS level!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2693713-forget-brandon-roy-the-former-player-meet-brandon-roy-the-high-school-coach?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

How about a new coaching possibility? He has 1 year of HS coaching and apparently recruits real well nation-wide at the HS level!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2693713-forget-brandon-roy-the-former-player-meet-brandon-roy-the-high-school-coach?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial

He does have NBA playing experience :thumb:

 

[CAHALL15]

How about a new coaching possibility? He has 1 year of HS coaching and apparently recruits real well nation-wide at the HS level!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2693713-forget-brandon-roy-the-former-player-meet-brandon-roy-the-high-school-coach?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=editorial

I'm sure having Michael Porter on his team has nothing to do with his success.

 

[helppitch]

I don't disagree with your president comparison for a multitude of reasons, but I do think that you're right about the fanbase. Attendance has not been good, Krush booed Groce in his intro last night, and so on. I have people who didn't miss a single game in college (in person and multiple road trips) who aren't tuning in because we play bad basketball under a bad coach and can't compete in a down conference where most of the traditional powers are having terrible years (IU, MSU, OSU). That's going to be incredibly difficult to overcome. That said, we'll see what the response is if he does somehow manage to extend this 2 game streak to 6 or 7.



Let's not get ahead of ourselves on TJL. He's been a bright spot on this team, without a doubt, and probably the best PG Groce has had.

But compared to other PGs throughout the conference, he's average. PG isn't magically a position of strength for us now and likely won't be next year. It is no longer a major position of weakness, however.

Here's a table with all of the conference guards and their conference stats so far this season. Yeah, eye test and whatever, but TJL is not ahead of many other returning guards. Our PG spot will not be a major hole anymore, but it's not immediately a position of strength, either.

Stats, while useful, really don't tell a whole lot, especially defensively. Lucas is a freshman, who spent most of the year on the bench. Really hasn't had a lot of PT. He continues to improve almost every game. McIntosh (all in all, NW MVP, IMO & very experienced) is a very good player, but frankly he couldn't stay with Lucas. Lucas was to quick for him. Lucas has got a ways to go, but his upside is very good.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

Stats, while useful, really don't tell a whole lot, especially defensively. Lucas is a freshman, who spent most of the year on the bench. Really hasn't had a lot of PT. He continues to improve almost every game. McIntosh (all in all, NW MVP, IMO & very experienced) is a very good player, but frankly he couldn't stay with Lucas. Lucas was to quick for him. Lucas has got a ways to go, but his upside is very good.

I alluded to eye test and all that hooplah in my OP. Nothing in my post was to discount what TJL has provided us this year. He's been excellent. But he's also got a ways to go to be an all-conference player, etc. The point of that was simply to temper expectations slightly -- he has great upside, but calling PG a strength of our team for next year is getting ahead of ourselves (unless that is simply relative to the rest of the roster rather than rest of conference, in which case sure, that could be true).

 

[Jkat00]

I just posted a question asking you all if J. Howard would be a good candidate for next head coach? But it was deleted so I'll try again. I'm posting this in the 2017 coaching carrousel thread right?...is this not the place to discuss possible new coaches for the UofI? What did I do wrong for my post to be deleted without giving a reason... or did I accidentally post it somewhere else?

Maybe Snacks needs a few more years... but wouldn't it bring recruiting momentum? If snacks isn't prepared yet or experienced enough at this point to be head coach... when will he be? 2 more years..5 more years?

That would be something to hire a guy as head coach replacing the guy that didn't retain him as an assistant.

I vote for Groce if he can pull this off....but just in case, it's interesting to think about the options.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

For real. To everything in that post.

 

[I Bomb]

I have to agree it's highly unlikely we make the dance this year; 2 wins in a row isn't enough to get me on the edge of my seat. However, to play devil's advocate, how likely is it that we make a hire that without question returns Illinois to the top of the B1G? Highly likely? That's Whitman's job, along with anyone able to contribute to that process.

I don't want to hire somebody only marginally better than Groce, just to get rid of Groce, though. I think that's what some folks here might be trying to say. Maybe Illinois is in a position to hand pick from lots of coaches remarkably better that this staff, maybe not??? Would be nice to live next to Whitman right about now...

 

[TCTORNADO]

The weather in C/U is so nice, that people are coming up from Florida.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

I have to agree it's highly unlikely we make the dance this year; 2 wins in a row isn't enough to get me on the edge of my seat. However, to play devil's advocate, how likely is it that we make a hire that without question returns Illinois to the top of the B1G? Highly likely? That's Whitman's job, along with anyone able to contribute to that process.

I don't want to hire somebody only marginally better than Groce, just to get rid of Groce, though. I think that's what some folks here might be trying to say. Maybe Illinois is in a position to hand pick from lots of coaches remarkably better that this staff, maybe not??? Would be nice to live next to Whitman right about now...

We've addressed this point so many times already. Statistically Groce is one of the very worst coaches in the P5. It would be nearly impossible not to make significance improvements with ANY other hire at this point.

 

[ChrisNMattoon]

Maybe not directly but there's more than a few that think he should or will be the coach next year. A few more who think he should stay barring a "homerun." And even a couple that think he is finally hitting his stride due to better pg play of late and deserves to stay to keep his recruits.

You need to relax man. I never said he should stay barring a homer. I just said that Whitman may choose to keep him if there isn't that homer out there. No matter how many times someone explains something to you, you turn it around slightly. You can't deny the fact that there is a possibility Whitman could choose to keep Groce.... I don't want that and most don't, but we won't just assume that Groce is already fired and the replacement is ready to go.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

You need to relax man. I never said he should stay barring a homer. I just said that Whitman may choose to keep him if there isn't that homer out there. No matter how many times someone explains something to you, you turn it around slightly. You can't deny the fact that there is a possibility Whitman could choose to keep Groce.... I don't want that and most don't, but we won't just assume that Groce is already fired and the replacement is ready to go.

Can we agree that would still be a bad choice? This isn't a NC State situation where everyone is dissatisfied with results slightly below expectations. This has been one of the worst stretches of basketball we've ever had. We should take a seeing-eye single, let alone a home run.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

I have to agree it's highly unlikely we make the dance this year; 2 wins in a row isn't enough to get me on the edge of my seat. However, to play devil's advocate, how likely is it that we make a hire that without question returns Illinois to the top of the B1G? Highly likely? That's Whitman's job, along with anyone able to contribute to that process.

I don't want to hire somebody only marginally better than Groce, just to get rid of Groce, though. I think that's what some folks here might be trying to say. Maybe Illinois is in a position to hand pick from lots of coaches remarkably better that this staff, maybe not??? Would be nice to live next to Whitman right about now...

John Groce has yet to finish even top 6 in the conference. I'd like to at least be in the upper half, Groce clearly isn't going to get us there, so it's time to move on.

Hiring someone better than Groce shouldn't be hard. There's a longer list of negative accolades for what he's achieved than positives here. Ultimately, there's no way to say "this other coach will get us to the top" with any certainty. You find a solid candidate and set them up to succeed, and then you hope it all works out. The is how it worked for the Lovie hire, which was a consensus home run for us, and it will be true for the hoops hire.

Simply put, we won't know what that new hire will be able to do at Illinois at the time of their hiring, there are no sure things, and we are simply projecting their abilities. . But it's still well worth making the change, rather than keeping a coach we know after five years can barely keep his head above water.

 

[Trakis]

Can we agree that would still be a bad choice? This isn't a NC State situation where everyone is dissatisfied with results slightly below expectations. This has been one of the worst stretches of basketball we've ever had. We should take a seeing-eye single, let alone a home run.

I disagree. If we're gonna make a move, it needs to be the right one. I don't want Whitman having an "it's not ideal" moment.

Don't fire Groce just to fire him. Moves like that are what keep us in this stretch.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

Can we agree that would still be a bad choice? This isn't a NC State situation where everyone is dissatisfied with results slightly below expectations. This has been one of the worst stretches of basketball we've ever had. We should take a seeing-eye single, let alone a home run.

I disagree. If we're gonna make a move, it needs to be the right one. I don't want Whitman having an "it's not ideal" moment.

Don't fire Groce just to fire him. Moves like that are what keep us in this stretch.

I'm with mattcoldagelli here. Do we really need to list out the not-accomplishments under Groce?

The reality is that we really, and I know someone will #WellActually me on this, but odds are that we really can't do much worse than Groce has done when factoring everything available to this program (funds, fan support, local talent, etc). With the state of the carousel this year, with the state of the program these last 5, everything points to making a change now. It would be a bad decision not to.

 

[I Bomb]

We've addressed this point so many times already. Statistically Groce is one of the very worst coaches in the P5. It would be nearly impossible not to make significance improvements with ANY other hire at this point.

I see people mocking the Jerrance Howard question... I remember people thinking anything was better than Bruce Weber; sometimes it doesn't work the way you want. I'm hoping for a big splash hire, myself.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

I disagree. If we're gonna make a move, it needs to be the right one. I don't want Whitman having an "it's not ideal" moment.

Don't fire Groce just to fire him. Moves like that are what keep us in this stretch.

He's the 14th-best coach in the conference. If your house is burning down, put out the fire before sketching out how great the man cave is gonna be in your rebuild.

 

[OrangeAndBlues]

He's the 14th-best coach in the conference. If your house is burning down, put out the fire before sketching out how great the man cave is gonna be in your rebuild.

Hear, hear. Add to that the fact that it's an awfully interesting coaching carousel this year with some good names floating around. We're not going to have any trouble getting someone we will all feel good rallying around.

 

[I Bomb]

I guess I should clarify before I get pinned on either side of the Colgate vs. Crest mentality - I think Groce is gone and should be, and that the decision is already made... I just would like to see a good hire, and the candidates seem to be out there. Hell, I was willing to see if a guy like Groce could get it done. Turns out he couldn't - but that doesn't mean another up-and-comer can't, just to be fair.

 

[89illinigrad]

I'm with mattcoldagelli here. Do we really need to list out the not-accomplishments under Groce?

The reality is that we really, and I know someone will #WellActually me on this, but odds are that we really can't do much worse than Groce has done when factoring everything available to this program (funds, fan support, local talent, etc). With the state of the carousel this year, with the state of the program these last 5, everything points to making a change now. It would be a bad decision not to.

I think it's just a case of once but, twice shy with some people. When we fired Weber many were saying we couldn't do worse than him and yet here we are.

During the last hiring process we heard a lot of the same talk "we're Illinois, we should be able to land anyone we want as coach", then Shaka and Stevens turned us down and we ended up with Groce.

Not saying the same thing will happen again, but there are people who are probably disallusioned enough to think it could happen again and that we end up with some one worse than Groce.

Sent from my MotoE2(4G-LTE) using Tapatalk

 

[Deleted member 29907]

I disagree. If we're gonna make a move, it needs to be the right one. I don't want Whitman having an "it's not ideal" moment.

Don't fire Groce just to fire him. Moves like that are what keep us in this stretch.

Agree - we have to have a good hire in line to make a move - otherwise - it doesn't make sense just to rinse and repeat for another 5 years.

 

[ILHoff]

Agree - we have to have a good hire in line to make a move - otherwise - it doesn't make sense just to rinse and repeat for another 5 years.

What if we wait another year and the coaching pool is worse or the jobs that open up are better than Illinois? Do we wait another year after that? If you don't make a coaching change now, we seem to be in "rinse and repeat" mode even more by keeping Groce and knowing the mediocre results we get year after year.

 

[I Bomb]

These are all things that Whitman and co. are paid to consider. The end result, no matter what it is, should be to better Illinois basketball...