2018-2019 Predictions Thread

[foby]

Therein lies my point. I am not convinced it is so clear. Dosumnmu will almost certainly make a longer-term positive direct impact than someone like Williamson would. But, I do believe there is a legitimate debate to be had about whether the indirect effect of a one-and-done might be comparably beneficial, i.e. making the program "sexier" for other top recruits and adding an NBA draftee to the coach's resume.

Like I said, I don't think I am sold either way, but I don't think it's an abundantly-clear answer.

Agree with that.

However, if it comes down to only on the court impact, I'm taking Ayo's 2-4 seasons over ZW's 1.

 

[IllinoisFan733]

Yah, I don't think Coach K. will be the one responsible for getting Zion W. to the NBA.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I do believe there is a legitimate debate to be had about whether the indirect effect of a one-and-done might be comparably beneficial, i.e. making the program "sexier" for other top recruits and adding an NBA draftee to the coach's resume.

And I think Johnny Jones' LSU and Lorenzo Romar's Washington present pretty convincing evidence to the contrary. Cuonzo at least parlayed that bounce into a new job elsewhere. Henry Ellenson didn't move the needle at Marquette. Neither did Mo Harkless at St. John's It keeps not working over and over again at UNLV, etc.

If you can think of a single example of a one-and-done that blew through town at a previously down program and changed everything, I'm all ears. Isaiah Whitehead was a two-and-done, I guess that kinda works if you squint hard enough.

It's about building a program, "getting old and staying old" as was humorously said about Huggins' West Virginia teams. I'll keep saying this until I'm blue in the face.

 

[sacraig]

Agree with that.

However, if it comes down to only on the court impact, I'm taking Ayo's 2-4 seasons over ZW's 1.

That's why I made the distinction between direct and indirect impacts. Dosunmu seems nearly certain to give us 2 to 4 seasons of high-impact play. However, let's suppose we landed someone of Williamson's caliber. That in and of itself might have led us to land one or two more Dosunmu-caliber players who wanted to play with the Williamson-like player. That is very difficult to quantify or predict, and if that were to happen, it would be pretty easy to argue that the Williamson-like player had a larger long-term combined direct and indirect impact on the program.

Yah, I don't think Coach K. will be the one responsible for getting Zion W. to the NBA.

That's pretty irrelevant. At the risk of bringing politics into this, this is sort of the same of any single President getting credit for saving or wrecking an economy. There are obviously so many factors that go into what the economy does and its health is a function of the people who came before the person currently in office for sure. But ultimately, the person sitting in office gets at least the short-term credit for what the economy is currently doing.

Sure, Coach K will have little to do with the fact that Zion Williamson is a first-round draft pick, but a random 17-year-old 5-star recruit will, over the next few seasons, look at people like K or Cal and say "look at all the players who played for them and then went to the league. I want to be like that." Is it entirely fair? No, but perception is reality.

And I think Johnny Jones' LSU and Lorenzo Romar's Washington present pretty convincing evidence to the contrary. Cuonzo at least parlayed that bounce into a new job elsewhere. Henry Ellenson didn't move the needle at Marquette. Neither did Mo Harkless at St. John's It keeps not working over and over again at UNLV, etc.

I'd argue the opposite, particularly with Romar. Romar's Washington teams did absolute squat on the court, but kept pulling in top talent due to the fact that (a) he is an ace recruiter, and (b) his recruits kept going to the NBA, which is what other recruits want to do. It's sort of a self-sustaining process. It's not enough to keep a job, but can be enough to keep recruits coming in, as evidenced by the fact that he had Porter signed even as he was being shown the door by his AD.

I am not saying a guy like Williamson solves all problems, and coaching is still a huge factor in on-court results. But as I mentioned above, I think that there can be indirect benefits of recruiting guys like that that do carry over for at least a few subsequent years if the coach is able to capitalize on it.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I'd argue the opposite, particularly with Romar. Romar's Washington teams did absolute squat on the court, but kept pulling in top talent due to the fact that (a) he is an ace recruiter, and (b) his recruits kept going to the NBA, which is what other recruits want to do. It's sort of a self-sustaining process. It's not enough to keep a job, but can be enough to keep recruits coming in, as evidenced by the fact that he had Porter signed even as he was being shown the door by his AD.

What the heck is the point of that? As the philosopher Herm Edwards once said: You play. To win. The game.

If this were Dante's Inferno, Illinois Loyalty posters would be sentenced to being Washington Basketball fans. You want five stars? You got 'em!

You could kind of argue that Magic did this at MSU. Kind of.

He was a two-and-done, and MSU didn't make the tournament or have a winning Big Ten record again for five years after he left. I actually didn't know that until just now. Jud Heathcote's record is a lot worse than I thought.

 

[sacraig]

What the heck is the point of that? As the philosopher Herm Edwards once said: You play. To win. The game.

I am not debating whether or not a coach is capable of squandering talent. I am arguing that a single one-and-done can have a longer term impact on a program than their time on the team through the effect they have on recruiting other good players. I am in no way advocating or defending the Romar approach to running a basketball program, and I am not sure how you are somehow interpreting my words as such.

Again, in the simplest terms possible, my core point is the following:

• Recruits like Ayo Dosunmu are wonderful and we need more of them and they will make a multi-year positive impact on our program.
• Recruits like Zion Williamson are also wonderful, and while their direct impact is shorter, their star power can itself be an asset that attracts more Ayo-like recruits.
• It is not clear at all that one situation is inherently better than the other.
• This is, of course, assuming that the coach is capable of winning in one or both situations. It obviously all counts for naught if we keep throwing up Ls on the schedule. This applies equally to either scenario, though.

 

[the national]

where are the potential upsets? I must say that I dont know how the offseason has treated our opponents. I am confident that we will beat a few we shouldnt but Im not sure which ones. Purdue? maybe a few in Maui? its hard to say.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

It is not clear at all that one situation is inherently better than the other.

I guess the issue for me is that the recruit-attracting effect of a one-and-done would have to be GIGANTIC to outweigh the effect of the great player you get to keep.

You gotta haul in some pretty amazing freshmen to be better than the upperclassmen versions of a Brunson or a Graham.

And on the contrary I think the effect, while real, is actually quite small. Lorenzo Romar is a very unique case where lack of success didn't cut off the talent spigot. I guess Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech springs to mind as well.

In any event, this is all rather head-in-the-clouds stuff relative to where we are now. Let's climb out of the gutter with what we've got over the next couple years and go from there.

 

[sacraig]

I guess the issue for me is that the recruit-attracting effect of a one-and-done would have to be GIGANTIC to outweigh the effect of the great player you get to keep.

You gotta haul in some pretty amazing freshmen to be better than the upperclassmen versions of a Brunson or a Graham.

And my contention is that, if a Zion Williamson type player comes to your program and his presence helps attract one (or more) Ayo Dosunmu type players in that same class, it seems pretty clear that the one-and-done had the bigger impact. This is assuming, of course, that you could somehow actually attribute his presence as an important factor in recruiting the other player(s).

Essentially, if having one Zion Williamson in a class makes it more likely to have one ore two Ayo Dosunmus you might otherwise not have landed in the same class, then it's basically having your cake and eating it too. That's a big "if", of course, and is why I said I wasn't really sold on either approach being better, and it is clearly coaching-dependent.

And on the contrary I think the effect, while real, is actually quite small. Lorenzo Romar is a very unique case where lack of success didn't cut off the talent spigot. I guess Paul Hewitt at Georgia Tech springs to mind as well.

Bruce Pearl at Auburn would be another good example.

In any event, this is all rather head-in-the-clouds stuff relative to where we are now. Let's climb out of the gutter with what we've got over the next couple years and go from there.

On that we agree. I'd be happy with either option. My original point was simply that this is a much deeper topic than your original, very simple question implied.

 

[The Dave]

7-4 Non-Conference - 12-8 Conference with a 19-12 Overall....Tied for with 3 others at 5th overall in the B1G with a Bubble Team entry!! Play in the Southwest Regional first round against LSU, we win by 9, then move on against Kansas and lose by 11...season over!

Most Improved Player goes to DaMonte Williams
MVP goes to Trent Frazier
Biggest Surprise Giorgi B
Best 3Pt % goes to Griffin as long as he has minimum attempts
Best Rebounder Jones
Assist Leader goes to Ayo
2 Pt % Leader goes to Kipper Nichols
Highest T/O average goes to Trent Frazier
Leadership Award to AJ

Please stop being so vague and make your predictions a little more concrete. \s

 

[Illini Resurgence]

This is depressing.
10-22 overall
5-13 conference
5-8 non-conference
0-1 BTT

My prediction last year of 14-16 was pretty damn close. I hope to be way off this year.

 

[The Dave]

My prediction last year of 14-16 was pretty damn close. I hope to be way off this year.

Hopefully (and it is hope at this point) you're way off on the pessimistic side and not the other direction.

 

[infamous]

Would you trade Ayo for Zion Williamson?

YES

 

[TheGMan]

Would you trade Ayo for Zion Williamson?

 

[Andy Kaufman]

Ayo is not a one-and-done player. I think you would struggle to find any talent evaluator in the country that thinks he is. That isn't to say that Ayo isn't good, but he doesn't fit the mold of a one-and-done. He's long, but not overly quick laterally. He's tall, but had the lowest vertical of any guard tested at his USA basketball trial this summer.

You can talk about RSCI all you want, it ain't happening.

I couldn't agree more. Ayo is at the very least a 2 year player and in my opinion, unless he has developed into a top player, he should stay through his Jr. year. Currently, he would get manhandled in the NBA

 

[Deleted member 186590]

Oh fun!

Thu, Nov 08___Evansville - W
Tue, Nov 13___Georgetown - W
Mon, Nov 19___Gonzaga (Maui Invitational) - L
Tue, Nov 20___Arizona or Iowa State (Maui Invitational) - W
Wed, Nov 21___Auburn/Duke/SDSU/Xavier (Maui Invitational) - L
Sun, Nov 25___Mississippi Valley State - W
Tue, Nov 27___@Notre Dame - L
Sun, Dec 02___@Nebraska - W
Wed, Dec 05___Ohio State (Chicago, IL) - L
Sat, Dec 08___UNLV - W
Sat, Dec 15___East Tennessee State - W
Sat, Dec 22___Missouri (St. Louis, MO) - L
Sat, Dec 29___Florida Atlantic - W
Thu, Jan 03___@Indiana - L
Sun, Jan 06___@Northwestern - L
Thu, Jan 10___Michigan - L
Wed, Jan 16___Minnesota - W
Sun, Jan 20___@Iowa - L
Wed, Jan 23___Wisconsin - W
Sat, Jan 26___Maryland (New York, NY) - L
Wed, Jan 30___@Minnesota - L
Sat, Feb 02___Nebraska - W
Tue, Feb 05___Michigan State - L
Sat, Feb 09___Rutgers - W
Thu, Feb 14___@Ohio State - L
Mon, Feb 18___@Wisconsin - L
Sat, Feb 23___Penn State - W
Wed, Feb 27___@Purdue - L
Sun, Mar 03___Northwestern - W
Thu, Mar 07___Indiana - W
Sun, Mar 10___@Penn State - L

15 - 16 Overall
8 - 12 Big Ten

This sounds about right

 

[jmilt7]

Oops, my mistake, I thought this was the predictions thread

 

[sacraig]

Oops, my mistake, I thought this was the predictions thread

No, this is the "debate the merits of various types of great recruits" thread. I know, the title is a bit misleading, but the evidence speaks for itself.

 

[PJD86]

I think it feels like a 16-17 win type team

I'll go 16-15

 

[DeeForThr33]

Every top-50 kid wants to be one-and-done, that doesn't mean it's going to happen. He just doesn't have the physical tools right now, and I can't see a scenario where he develops them over the next 10 months.

Look, this is a good thing. I love Ayo's game and think he'll be a leader on this team for several years. If anything I think he's got a better shot at being a Jalen Brunson type—A four-year, extremely productive college player that NBA scouts just aren't drooling over. I want those guys, not one-and-done's.

Would love to have Ayo for multiple seasons, but there’s always kids that go pro early, regardless of whether they should or not. Hopefully we can win some games this year and Ayo can look good doing it. Underwood already has a great track record in terms of getting guards to the NBA and/or putting them in positions to be successful (Evans, Walkup, Trent)

 

[WizardBill]

Thu, Nov 08 Evansville A close game, but our three point shooting cannot be overcome by the Purple Aces. Us in a close one. BU's second year starts out with a win! W (1-0)

Tue, Nov 13 Georgetown This team went 15-15 last year. Not any HUGE impact freshmen and I just don't see them beating us. W (2-0)

Mon, Nov 19 Gonzaga (Maui Invitational) The Zags are returning Perkins, Norvell, Hachimura, and Tille. They will be tough. L (2-1)

Tue, Nov 20 Arizona or Iowa State (Maui Invitational) IF we play Arizona, their lack of quality post players makes this an intriguing matchup. IF we play IA State, you can say the same thing. Either way, this is a toss up, if there was such a thing. T (2-1-1)

Wed, Nov 21 Auburn/Duke/SDSU/Xavier (Maui Invitational) This is all matchup dependent. Duke L, Auburn W, SDSU W, Xavier L. Another 50/50. T (2-1-2)

Sun, Nov 25 Mississippi Valley State This one is impossible to predict. They have like 45 people on the roster!

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/teams/miss-valley-st-delta-devils

So, being the optimist, big win. W (3-1-2)

Tue, Nov 27 @Notre Dame L (3-2-2)

Sun, Dec 02 @Nebraska L (3-3-2)

Wed, Dec 05 Ohio State (Chicago, IL) W (4-3-2)

Sat, Dec 08 UNLV W (5-3-2)

Sat, Dec 15 East Tennessee State W (6-3-2)

Sat, Dec 22 Missouri (St. Louis, MO) W (7-3-2)

Sat, Dec 29 Florida Atlantic W (8-3-2)

Thu, Jan 03 @Indiana L (8-4-2) (This one sucks for me, as I despise the clown pants people)

Sun, Jan 06 @Northwestern L (8-5-2)

Thu, Jan 10 Michigan L (8-6-2)

Wed, Jan 16 Minnesota W (9-6-2)

Sun, Jan 20 @Iowa W (10-6-2)

Wed, Jan 23 Wisconsin L (10-7-2)

Sat, Jan 26 Maryland (New York, NY) L (10-8-2)

Wed, Jan 30 @Minnesota L (10-9-2)

Sat, Feb 02 Nebraska L (10-10-2)

Tue, Feb 05 Michigan State L (10-11-2)

Sat, Feb 09 Rutgers W (11-11-2)

Thu, Feb 14 @Ohio State L (11-12-2)

Mon, Feb 18 @Wisconsin L (11-13-2)

Sat, Feb 23 Penn State W (12-13-2)

Wed, Feb 27 @Purdue L (12-14-2)

Sun, Mar 03 Northwestern W (13-14-2)

Thu, Mar 07 Indiana W (14-14-2)

Sun, Mar 10 @Penn State W (15-14-2)

BTT L (15-15-2) (8-12) in the B1G

There you have it. I did not go into more details after the non-conference season because it is all entirely dependent on how well our freshmen adjust/pick things up. So, we are anywhere from 17-15 to 15-17. Looks like no post-season, but obviously we are improving on all cylinders and we are going to be in great shape moving forward.

 

[Tacomallini]

18 wins total. No postseason. Loyalty collectively angry about no NIT invite but overall happy with the season. All eligible returning players back for 2019-20. S&C volunteers to buy all Loyalty followers a round at the newly renovated Illini Inn.

 

[Se Il Illini]

13-18

 

[Kathy]

This is depressing.
10-22 overall
5-13 conference
5-8 non-conference
0-1 BTT

My prediction last year of 14-16 was pretty damn close. I hope to be way off this year.[/QUOTE]

You will be!

 

[Calvin]

No way would I trade Ayo. Big time recruit commits to us, there's nothing more to discuss IMHO. It's also probably a better recruiting story if he comes here and improves enough to be a first rounder. He's a hard worker, and will benefit from a system that pushes his speed. Time will tell.

Taking it a bit further, as an arm chair GM, there are only two programs with the recruiting influence and annual depth to even think about it (Duke or Kentucky) and even then, I don't think they'd make it unless they genuinely believed it would put them over the top for a N.C. run. A 2 for 1, or a 3 for 1 trade is not a way to enhance your program.