Illini Basketball 2018-2019

[FiveStar]

Most of the 4s in our conference, or in college basketball in general, aren’t post players so I’m not too concerned either. Our biggest problem has been with guarding opposing 5s and not having the lateral speed to guard 3s and 4s and I think the latter will be significantly improved this season.

Agree completely. Also, when we are forced to go Kipper at the 5 small, opposing offenses will have their chance with the 5 man scoring. However, how many truly dominant 5s do we see with that type of post game? More than 4s for sure, but defensive rebounding from that lineup will be the biggest challenge IMO.

I really do like our return matchup with Kipper in the high post vs their big and his potential to draw fouls. If we can stay neutral in those super small instances, we will have our chances.

 

[SergioKittner]

Higgs was there.

Thanks Combes. I saw he was in the team photos. Just wondering if BU said anything about him or if there is any insight as to what to expect from him this year. I suppose he has only been on campus 6 weeks or so at this point.

 

[illinitiger]

Actually, the most encouraging quote by BU that I saw there was about the personality of the players and the team. A great locker room, cameraderie, and a team that can stay loose and have fun while still having focus is what makes teams play better than their talent, and that's what makes otherwise bad teams average, average teams good, and good teams GREAT. It's what we saw in '08-09 with the Chet Frazier, McCamey, Trent Meacham, Tisdale, Davis team when we finished a surprising 2nd in conference and what we obviously saw in our best teams from the early 2000s. If we have that we can finish better than most are expecting this season.

I agree...team chemistry is key to overachieving and is fun to watch. Also, sounds like the returnees worked hard with young guys over the summer. Glad we are not hearing much like last year of installing the system gradually...AJ and others are owed much for mentoring guys over summer. Need to get Samba caught up as quick as possible, IMO. I have low expectations for team...but look forward to watching team develop and hopefully have some surprise successes.

 

[Selfcon4]

Most of the 4s in our conference, or in college basketball in general, aren’t post players so I’m not too concerned either. Our biggest problem has been with guarding opposing 5s and not having the lateral speed to guard 3s and 4s and I think the latter will be significantly improved this season.

Not having lateral speed to guard has been a problem for us over a decade...and not just with our bigs. Our guards have been getting torched for years and years off the dribble. This fact is exaggerated even more when you don't have enforcers on the inside to make up for it. I Actually believe it is more of a problem with our gurads. We will see if Ayo and DW can change this for the better.

 

[Selfcon4]

Thanks Combes. I saw he was in the team photos. Just wondering if BU said anything about him or if there is any insight as to what to expect from him this year. I suppose he has only been on campus 6 weeks or so at this point.

I speculate the issue is there is nothing good to say. I suspect the entire time Higgs has been here he has been hurt and WAY out of shape. No reason to bring him up now other than to answer questions about his injury or his weight. Neither of which BU wants (or will) do. So out of sight out of mind I suppose. My guess is BU will start talking about him when he is close to healthy.

 

[Ga65]

Sounds like Giorgi will definitely be the starter. Hopefully based on his basketball IQ he will be able to avoid the typical freshman big foul problem. Not sure what the % but seems like many of those fouls in the past were illegal screens. Horrible foul as it is turnover as well. May be an advantage to be a position defenseman rather than a shot blocker.

 

[SergioKittner]

I speculate the issue is there is nothing good to say. I suspect the entire time Higgs has been here he has been hurt and WAY out of shape. No reason to bring him up now other than to answer questions about his injury or his weight. Neither of which BU wants (or will) do. So out of sight out of mind I suppose. My guess is BU will start talking about him when he is close to healthy.

You might be right. I see in the recruiting thread that he was out before the QG workout shooting without the boot on with OA.

 

[dbeverly26]

I recognize the distinction you're making, and I still disagree.

Very interesting data on the other B1G teams, I appreciate you bringing actual numbers to the discussion, I just think the extent of the smallness on the roster goes deeper than what you presented.

Though I realize now that I forgot about Zach Griffith, who is only 6'6" but is a definite post player. That makes me feel a bit better about the looks our guys are able to get in practice. A bit. But if a student manager turned walk-on has to play, and I honestly think he might at some point, that's a real bad scene.

Depth is an issue if Adonis is unavailable, but if he's not I'm not too worried from a bodies perspective. I don't think that many teams could survive using their fourth option at the 5 for significant minutes. I will say that I'm a bit concerned about not having a third head on Hydra if two are freshman, though.

Underwood is doing a pretty good job of adding length to this team. Putting Feliz and Frazier out there at the same time will undercut that a bit, but otherwise a lot of guys on this team are all arms and legs. It'll pay off.

 

[stevelanter79]

did anyone catch giorgi's slip up during interview yesterday

 

[Berg88]

Agree completely. Also, when we are forced to go Kipper at the 5 small, opposing offenses will have their chance with the 5 man scoring. However, how many truly dominant 5s do we see with that type of post game? More than 4s for sure, but defensive rebounding from that lineup will be the biggest challenge IMO.

I really do like our return matchup with Kipper in the high post vs their big and his potential to draw fouls. If we can stay neutral in those super small instances, we will have our chances.

I think my biggest concern with Kipper at the 5 is not that some dominant big will put up 30 against him, you're right, there aren't a lot of that type of player in college basketball. I'm more worried about us just getting out-muscled for rebounds. We were a bad defensive rebounding team last year when we had more depth and size inside. Kipper playing the 5 means the other team is likely bigger and stronger there AND at the 4. I'm sure there will be an inclination to want to get out and run with Ayo and Trent, but that plan is predicated on being able to secure the defensive rebound.

 

[FiveStar]

I think my biggest concern with Kipper at the 5 is not that some dominant big will put up 30 against him, you're right, there aren't a lot of that type of player in college basketball. I'm more worried about us just getting out-muscled for rebounds. We were a bad defensive rebounding team last year when we had more depth and size inside. Kipper playing the 5 means the other team is likely bigger and stronger there AND at the 4. I'm sure there will be an inclination to want to get out and run with Ayo and Trent, but that plan is predicated on being able to secure the defensive rebound.

I agree and said as much. I really just think the goal in that situation is to be neutral, and if we’re feeling really good about ourselves, trade some 2s for 3s.

 

[FiveStar]

No. What slip up?

The f word

 

[Greensboro]

2. Sourcing the primary starting lineups from kenpom.com, some facts about the B1G last season:

Number of teams with two starters 6'10" or above: 0
Number of teams with two starters 6'8" or above: 5

Number of teams with no starters 6'8" or above: 2*
Number of teams with no starters 6'10" or above: 4

My problem with all this is we really have 0 starters 6'8" or above ready, sure one of Giorgi/Kane will start because they have too, but that doesn't mean they should

 

[Obelix]

We had the same discussion last year as well, positionless basketball, we will turn it to our advantage, yada, yada, yada. Then we go 4-14 and it was more than evident that lack of inside presence was our biggest disadvantage. Villanova is probably the most often cited example that people have brought over the last few years but Villanova had Ochefu in 2016 and Spellman/Paschall last year. Quality players who had competent inside games (in addition to other skills). Unless someone really surprises from the new faces (Giorgi, Kane, etc.) and overachieves expectation by a lot, we will still struggle in that aspect of the game this year. Without respect for your inside game, defenses also extend to the perimeter making their jobs even tougher.

 

[illinitiger]

We had the same discussion last year as well, positionless basketball, we will turn it to our advantage, yada, yada, yada. Then we go 4-14 and it was more than evident that lack of inside presence was our biggest disadvantage. Villanova is probably the most often cited example that people have brought over the last few years but Villanova had Ochefu in 2016 and Spellman/Paschall last year. Quality players who had competent inside games (in addition to other skills). Unless someone really surprises from the new faces (Giorgi, Kane, etc.) and overachieves expectation by a lot, we will still struggle in that aspect of the game this year. Without respect for your inside game, defenses also extend to the perimeter making their jobs even tougher.

We have a net gain for guard and wing penetration with Jones and Ayo I think. I am not too worried on the offense side. Inside D though....

 

[Newman]

We had the same discussion last year as well, positionless basketball, we will turn it to our advantage, yada, yada, yada. Then we go 4-14 and it was more than evident that lack of inside presence was our biggest disadvantage. Villanova is probably the most often cited example that people have brought over the last few years but Villanova had Ochefu in 2016 and Spellman/Paschall last year. Quality players who had competent inside games (in addition to other skills). Unless someone really surprises from the new faces (Giorgi, Kane, etc.) and overachieves expectation by a lot, we will still struggle in that aspect of the game this year. Without respect for your inside game, defenses also extend to the perimeter making their jobs even tougher.

I was not a fan of Giorgi when we got him but I’m encouraged by everything that I’ve heard about him, besides his rebounding. Unfortunately it’s still likely one if the weakest frontcourts in the conference, if not the weakest, with both starter quality and depth. De La Rosa being ready changes that if our backcourt turns out to have as much depth as some are expecting. If those two things don’t pan out it could be a long season.

 

[Obelix]

We have a net gain for guard and wing penetration with Jones and Ayo I think. I am not too worried on the offense side. Inside D though....

Our backcourt will be much better, but frontcourt and specifically inside game is a problem even on offense.

 

[FiveStar]

We had the same discussion last year as well, positionless basketball, we will turn it to our advantage, yada, yada, yada. Then we go 4-14 and it was more than evident that lack of inside presence was our biggest disadvantage. Villanova is probably the most often cited example that people have brought over the last few years but Villanova had Ochefu in 2016 and Spellman/Paschall last year. Quality players who had competent inside games (in addition to other skills). Unless someone really surprises from the new faces (Giorgi, Kane, etc.) and overachieves expectation by a lot, we will still struggle in that aspect of the game this year. Without respect for your inside game, defenses also extend to the perimeter making their jobs even tougher.

If they extend on perimeter threats it opens driving lanes. I feel good about our guards finishing abilities. Kick outs to better shooters (in theory) should have a different result (in theory). If they don’t help off shooters and help off the big I trust all our bigs to be able to catch and finish a dumpoff. Really more about our ability to shoot better than last year. We got enough good looks, did not get enough makes.

 

[Obelix]

If they extend on perimeter threats it opens driving lanes. I feel good about our guards finishing abilities. Kick outs to better shooters (in theory) should have a different result (in theory). If they don’t help off shooters and help off the big I trust all our bigs to be able to catch and finish a dumpoff. Really more about our ability to shoot better than last year. We got enough good looks, did not get enough makes.

Just because the defense extends to the perimeter, it does not mean they will be playing bad defense and our superior players will be no match for their bad defense and go past them one-on-one at will. You are still playing very competent teams and defenders not just big immobile players. Extending to the perimeter does not also imply that all players extend to the perimeter and stay there. The defense extends on the perimeter on the strong side (ball side) but the weak side will not, so even if they get beat the weak side defense will be there. Actually, the good penetrating teams benefit from strong inside players who are offensive threats because once good penetrators go past first defender (on top or perimeter) the weak side is more hesitant to converge and leave a strong inside threat open for a simple dump off and finish.

 

[swand]

From Friday's interviews...
- very encouraged by Giorgi's comments in regards to his work ethic and his one day at a time approach. He obviously is very fun loving, but at the same time he's dedicated to working hard.
- sounds like having the refs at practice are already paying dividends and that Giorgi is embracing trying to learn how the game is called differently in college.
- like that Giorgi embraces physical aspect of the game but also seems very skilled. Another nice balance that you don't find all that often.

Overall I like everything I've heard regarding Giorgi.

 

[Deleted member 8632]

Just because the defense extends to the perimeter, it does not mean they will be playing bad defense and our superior players will be no match for their bad defense and go past them one-on-one at will. You are still playing very competent teams and defenders not just big immobile players. Extending to the perimeter does not also imply that all players extend to the perimeter and stay there. The defense extends on the perimeter on the strong side (ball side) but the weak side will not, so even if they get beat the weak side defense will be there. Actually, the good penetrating teams benefit from strong inside players who are offensive threats because once good perpetrators go past first defender (on top or perimeter) the weak side is more hesitant to converge and leave a strong inside threat open for a simple dump off and finish.

Didn't know there was such a thing.

 

[Obelix]

Didn't know there was such a thing.

With all the dirty recruiting? C'mon...

 

[FiveStar]

Just because the defense extends to the perimeter, it does not mean they will be playing bad defense and our superior players will be no match for their bad defense and go past them one-on-one at will. You are still playing very competent teams and defenders not just big immobile players. Extending to the perimeter does not also imply that all players extend to the perimeter and stay there. The defense extends on the perimeter on the strong side (ball side) but the weak side will not, so even if they get beat the weak side defense will be there. Actually, the good penetrating teams benefit from strong inside players who are offensive threats because once good penetrators go past first defender (on top or perimeter) the weak side is more hesitant to converge and leave a strong inside threat open for a simple dump off and finish.

I’m aware of how helpside defense works. Hence my point about kick outs. You don’t think the guys who will have the ball most, Trent, Feliz, and Ayo, can break down a defender that crowds them? Trent has already proven that at the college level and Ayo has shown that ability against the top talent he has faced.

If weakside interior defense steps up and leaves a poorer offensive player in a dump off position (your scenario cause they would hesitate to leave a good player) literally any guy on our team should be able to hit an uncontested layup. If the secondary rotation covers the big then we’re back to the kickout. Help from a weakside perimeter defender cause you don’t wanna leave the big? Kickout. Rotate down to cover the big after his man steps up? Kickout. The ability to hit 3s is still the trumping factor at busting helpside defense.

 

[Obelix]

I’m aware of how helpside defense works. Hence my point about kick outs. You don’t think the guys who will have the ball most, Trent, Feliz, and Ayo, can break down a defender that crowds them? Trent has already proven that at the college level and Ayo has shown that ability against the top talent he has faced.

If weakside interior defense steps up and leaves a poorer offensive player in a dump off position (your scenario cause they would hesitate to leave a good player) literally any guy on our team should be able to hit an uncontested layup. If the secondary rotation covers the big then we’re back to the kickout. Help from a weakside perimeter defender cause you don’t wanna leave the big? Kickout. Rotate down to cover the big after his man steps up? Kickout. The ability to hit 3s is still the trumping factor at busting helpside defense.

No, unfortunately I do not buy it. But more importantly, the rest of independent college analysts are not buying it either because they would have ranked us higher if they did.

I personally think Trent and Ayo will be fantastic, but I have no hallucinations that they will just demolish good college defenses or that they will be breaking their first defenders at will and then facing immobile big men with simple kickouts to far superior 3pt shooters. Just because the competent teams we will face have players who are inside threats, it does not mean that they are bad defenders or do not even have outside skills either. And while I certainly believe that our backcourt will be much improved, I do not think that Trent/Ayo will just be breaking apart other great backcourts at will either. They will be matched against some excellent guards and defenders as well. I think you seriously overestimate the rest of our overall talent, independent of the obvious deficiencies in our inside game.

If we are to challenge for NCAA birth, it would mean that somehow we were able to find some reliable/consistent inside game on offense and defense, pretty much an unexpected surprise from one or more of our big men (Kane, Giorgi, Higgs, De La Rosa) significantly overachieving and exceeding expectations. Not easy or likely, but certainly possible. Otherwise, I believe we can improve from last year, but just because that bar was set really low (4-14). JMO.

 

[FiveStar]

No, unfortunately I do not buy it. But more importantly, the rest of independent college analysts are not buying it either because they would have ranked us higher if they did.

I personally think Trent and Ayo will be fantastic, but I have no hallucinations that they will just demolish good college defenses or that they will be breaking their first defenders at will and then facing immobile big men with simple kickouts to far superior 3pt shooters. Just because the competent teams we will face have players who are inside threats, it does not mean that they are bad defenders or do not even have outside skills either. And while I certainly believe that our backcourt will be much improved, I do not think that Trent/Ayo will just be breaking apart other great backcourts at will either. They will be matched against some excellent guards and defenders as well. I think you seriously overestimate the rest of our overall talent, independent of the obvious deficiencies in our inside game.

If we are to challenge for NCAA birth, it would mean that somehow we were able to find some reliable/consistent inside game on offense and defense, pretty much an unexpected surprise from one or more of our big men (Kane, Giorgi, Higgs, De La Rosa) significantly overachieving and exceeding expectations. Not easy or likely, but certainly possible. Otherwise, I believe we can improve from last year, but just because that bar was set really low (4-14). JMO.

Bolded 1: Trent has literally already proven his ability to do it, as a freshman, without much help, which meant defenses could really key on him. Yet he still was able to break down his man and get to the paint or get a shot. An attempt to down play what has already been proven by calling it a hallucination is...interesting.

Bolded 2: I said in my original post that our shooters are better in theory (don’t know till the games start) but we generated enough good looks last year that we didn’t make so if we truly do have better shooters we should get better results if we get the same looks. We also blew at the free throw line which better shooters help with in theory.

Bolded 3: Never said other teams had bad defenders. Our conversation was about where helpside defense comes from.

Bolded 4: I don’t think I’m over estimating when I say I trust everyone on the team to be able to hit a dump off layups. Also don’t think it’s an overestimation to believe that if we generate the same looks we did last year, with (in theory) better shooters that we should get better results. I do think however the looks could change. If we really do have better shooters their defenders will be more hesitant to leave them (same as your premise about bigs hesitating to leave their man to step up on drives, just a different area of the floor), which opens up lanes for guys like Trent, who have already proven they can break down good college defenders, and guys like Ayo, who appear to be able to do it based on available data.

You are making more assumptions about my thoughts for this year than I am. Good conversation though.