Illinois Football Recruiting Thread

[South Farms]

I desperately want him to succeed and I'm certainly skeptical that he will though I remain hopeful. So you have me 100% wrong. I've been a Lovie fan from day 1 with the Bears, I've always thought he's a great coach.

What you are picking up on, I suspect, is my distaste for being peed on and told it's raining.

It's not just rebuilding, it's not a dumpster fire they inherited, it's not a roster of worthless players they had to get rid of, Lovie Smith and Brad Underwood have TO THIS POINT been absolute titanic, unmitigated failures. They've put some of the very worst teams out there that this University has ever seen, miles and miles and miles below any reasonable expectation based on the admittedly pedestrian situations they inherited.

I strenuously object to the idea that you have to deny that reality in order to support and root for and believe hopeful things about the future of those two coaches.

In the 35 years since I graduated from UI, Ive learned to take a much longer view of rebuilding in business and sports .
curious as to your take on the Rickett's and Epstein's performance when the Cubs lost 101, 96, and then 89 games in the 3 years after Epstein was hired ?

 

[Deleted member 4333]

In year 3 of the Lovie era, we lost 63 - 0 to Iowa. I'm having trouble getting past that.

 

[ChiefGritty]

In the 35 years since I graduated from UI, Ive learned to take a much longer view of rebuilding in business and sports .
curious as to your take on the Rickett's and Epstein's performance when the Cubs lost 101, 96, and then 89 games in the 3 years after Epstein was hired ?

One of the most impressive managerial performances I've ever seen and absolutely obvious to the educated fan every step of the way what a monster they were building.

The Lovie situation would be analogous to the Cubs if we had signed the #1 recruiting class in the entire nation last year, better than Bama, Clemson, everybody, redshirted every single guy, and then were bringing in the #1 class in the entire nation once again this year.

Obviously, that's not what's happening here. Which doesn't mean we can't succeed, for starters no one is expecting to win the CFB equivalent of a World Series anytime soon. When 6-6 is victory, victory is very achievable.

But I think the way dumb interpretations of things like the Cubs championship has caused fans to fetishize losing is a really stupid and destructive element of sports these days.

 

[thunderwear]

In year 3 of the Lovie era, we lost 63 - 0 to Iowa. I'm having trouble getting past that.

I agree that the defense was way worse than expected last year (worse than the prior year). I also can understand criticizing the trajectory of the team or your perceptions of recruiting. However, I wouldn't delve too deep into any individual game. There are lots of reasons for extremely awful performance. Alabama got crushed yesterday by Clemson. If Clemson played the 4th quarter it would have been a similarly bad loss, likely 60+ points. If Alabama played them again, we probably wouldn't see this game repeat itself. I don't think Iowa will beat us this way next year. But I wouldn't argue that this type of game won't happen next year, it is hard to predict the number of things that can go wrong for any individual game.

 

[NBB1979]

Let me also present the schedule for next year....while not as promising as the 2018 schedule (if we got to play the 2018 schedule this season - i think we'd win 8 games or more)... here it is

Akron - win
@UConn - road game, but I think UConn was the worst team in college football last season - this should be a road win
Eastern Michigan - suprisingly good this season (actually had a better S&P record than Northwestern) - but I expect a win at home
Nebraska then @ Minnesota - I'm expecting to split these two games

so I have us at 4-1 entering the home game against Michigan - which we will lose to drop to 4-2 and the schedule gets much more difficult from there

We'll beat Rutgers at home for win #5 but we'll have to win a road game

 

[NBB1979]

I agree that the defense was way worse than expected last year (worse than the prior year). I also can understand criticizing the trajectory of the team or your perceptions of recruiting. However, I wouldn't delve too deep into any individual game. There are lots of reasons for extremely awful performance. Alabama got crushed yesterday by Clemson. If Clemson played the 4th quarter it would have been a similarly bad loss, likely 60+ points. If Alabama played them again, we probably wouldn't see this game repeat itself. I don't think Iowa will beat us this way next year. But I wouldn't argue that this type of game won't happen next year, it is hard to predict the number of things that can go wrong for any individual game.

I agree 100% with this - i could see us getting beat in a terrible fashion by Michigan next season... but before yesterday most would say Alabama would beat Clemson 55/100 if that game were played 100 times - i'd venture to bet that NOONE would have told you a single outcome would have been by 28 points. Sometimes teams have a bad day - we had a really bad day against Iowa and a really bad quarter against Penn State.

 

[thunderwear]

One of the most impressive managerial performances I've ever seen and absolutely obvious to the educated fan every step of the way what a monster they were building.

The Lovie situation would be analogous to the Cubs if we had signed the #1 recruiting class in the entire nation last year, better than Bama, Clemson, everybody, redshirted every single guy, and then were bringing in the #1 class in the entire nation once again this year.

Obviously, that's not what's happening here. Which doesn't mean we can't succeed, for starters no one is expecting to win the CFB equivalent of a World Series anytime soon. When 6-6 is victory, victory is very achievable.

But I think the way dumb interpretations of things like the Cubs championship has caused fans to fetishize losing is a really stupid and destructive element of sports these days.

I don't think there is this conspiracy. I think most fans are willing to give Lovie the benefit of the doubt. Most people believe Lovie is a competent coach and will make the adjustments he needs to make in the long-term. And there is evidence suggesting that this is happening (recruiting has picked up, offensive production picked up, relationship building with HS coaches is improving in important markets).

We had an awful offense and that turned around. Unfortunately, we had a mediocre defense and that got worse. Ultimately, myself and many others, believe that Lovie is a great coach that will figure out the college game. I get that you are making a point that we don't have to be this bad and people should not tolerate this. I don't disagree with you and, you very well could be correct. I am not taking a stance on the issue. I am allowing Lovie to have a fair chance to figure out the college game (I know you are too). Next season is the season that we will see. I think Lovie's contract gets extended with 5 or more wins (regardless of how bad the losses are). I also think that 2020 will necessitate a bowl game and 2021 and 2022. As long as Whitman sees improvement, I think Lovie gets a chance. If we don't see improvement, he will be terminated. I think it is as simple as that.

 

[NBB1979]

LOLOLOL

I am 32 years old. The last time Illinois had a winning record in the Big Ten AND made the relevant postseason (NCAA Tourney or Bowl) I was an undergraduate student at U of I. EVERY other power conference school has done that at least twice since. I think it might be three times now, I haven't looked up the numbers lately.

So, Gritty - what would Lovie have to do to satisfy you this season? For me - I think 6 wins is the course to veer - but 5 wins and less than 2 blowout losses (be in almost every game - i just don't think we can hang with Michigan) would keep me engaged for next season.

Just because it's comical - i'll add this - i held season football tickets from 2001 through 2017. This season I traded my football tickets for basketball tickets (i've only held season basketball tickets twice as I live 90 minutes away) - and now I want to trade back to football...

 

[NBB1979]

So on a completely different note - if you haven't listened to Werner's interview with the ESL coach - Sunkett - you need to. This guy seems to want to send all of his great talented kids to Illinois, the state flagship school. I'm very glad that he's on our side of the Mississippi!

 

[ChiefGritty]

So, Gritty - what would Lovie have to do to satisfy you this season?

6 or bust.

I'll settle for a 6 in which we're actually a really terrible team, we can't fire Lovie if he makes a bowl. With our schedule I don't think it's possible to jump up into actual good team territory in the advanced metrics without 6 wins appearing.

Of course the actual result is going to be 5-7 with us at like 80th in F/+ because the world is cruel and we can't have nice things.

 

[MadSeason]

So on a completely different note - if you haven't listened to Werner's interview with the ESL coach - Sunkett - you need to. This guy seems to want to send all of his great talented kids to Illinois, the state flagship school. I'm very glad that he's on our side of the Mississippi!

This is a very important part to the rebuild and the faith being shown in Lovie at this point. It is more than just on field results which must be examined. Lovie and crew have created some very good relationships with schools/areas that produce a lot of talent. Hopefully the 2 new assistant expand on that with recruiting process.

The wins must start happening obviously but Lovie is also building a sustainable recruiting base which can sustain a program

 

[ChiefIllini]

Before Thomas, Ford, etc. I would've been the first to tell you I don't want Lovie sticking around if he cant make a bowl next year. Now, I see 4 or 5 wins as the floor. The recruiting has taken a noticeable step in the right direction, given the lack of talent here, I think he deserves to show it's his schemes that dont work, rather than the lack of players.

Of course, he's gotta keep this momentum up. Continuing to get guys in the top 500, and more than just one or two a year, will be crucial. You can build a program out of low 3 stars, but eventually the talent deficiency shows up.

 

[goillini30]

One of the most impressive managerial performances I've ever seen and absolutely obvious to the educated fan every step of the way what a monster they were building.

The Lovie situation would be analogous to the Cubs if we had signed the #1 recruiting class in the entire nation last year, better than Bama, Clemson, everybody, redshirted every single guy, and then were bringing in the #1 class in the entire nation once again this year.

Obviously, that's not what's happening here. Which doesn't mean we can't succeed, for starters no one is expecting to win the CFB equivalent of a World Series anytime soon. When 6-6 is victory, victory is very achievable.

But I think the way dumb interpretations of things like the Cubs championship has caused fans to fetishize losing is a really stupid and destructive element of sports these days.

There are more incentives to lose in pro sports than in college. There is a measurable advantage to racking up those L's in the higher draft position, which gives a higher chance of getting that star that will turn things around. It makes sense for fans of bad pro teams to want them to be the worst that they can be in a given year. There are none of those incentives for college teams, in fact it would seem that the more you lose, the harder it is to stop losing.

 

[Soxfreak64]

Even if none of the transfers get waivers to play, Lovie needs to win 6 next year. There are four extremely winnable games on the schedule. That means they need to take 2 from the slate of Nebraska, @Minny, Wisconsin, @Purdue, Northwestern. I don't think this team can beat Michigan at home or Iowa & MSU on the road.

There are a few exceptions to that 6-win rule (devastating injuries, a 5-7 season filled with close losses to good teams), but this team HAS to win 6.

I think that's doable, particularly if health and waivers go Illinois' way. I could even see 7, provided they get some bounces.

 

[ivwilsoniv]

Even if none of the transfers get waivers to play, Lovie needs to win 6 next year. There are four extremely winnable games on the schedule. That means they need to take 2 from the slate of Nebraska, @Minny, Wisconsin, @Purdue, Northwestern. I don't think this team can beat Michigan at home or Iowa & MSU on the road.

There are a few exceptions to that 6-win rule (devastating injuries, a 5-7 season filled with close losses to good teams), but this team HAS to win 6.

I think that's doable, particularly if health and waivers go Illinois' way. I could even see 7, provided they get some bounces.

What if we live in a world where Lovie doesn't need to win 6 next year? Because I don't think that's the case. I think less than 6 wins would definitely be a disappointment, but Whitman has too much invested (not just monetarily) and too much on the line to can Lovie even after next year. All of the recruits that just signed did so to play for Lovie. Again, let it play out. Refer back to my post about Bob Stoops at Kentucky. Lovie's first recruiting class won't be seniors next year. I personally think Whitman gives him until then.

 

[drwillini]

I get that QB is the focus of the offense, and to a certain extent the team, but I really think we can win with MJ, and if IW wins the job so much the better. What I would really like is another Delshawn Phillips. If the offense stays healthy we will score points next near. Again, I get that's a big IF, but I don't think we can say the same for the defense. Any quality player added on defense can allow personnel juggling to get the best athletes on the field.

 

[TheGMan]

What if we live in a world where Lovie doesn't need to win 6 next year? Because I don't think that's the case. I think less than 6 wins would definitely be a disappointment, but Whitman has too much invested (not just monetarily) and too much on the line to can Lovie even after next year. All of the recruits that just signed did so to play for Lovie. Again, let it play out. Refer back to my post about Bob Stoops at Kentucky. Lovie's first recruiting class won't be seniors next year. I personally think Whitman gives him until then.

Seriously, is Whitman's life in trouble if Lovie doesn't succeed or something?

 

[FT35]

I get that QB is the focus of the offense, and to a certain extent the team, but I really think we can win with MJ, and if IW wins the job so much the better. What I would really like is another Delshawn Phillips. If the offense stays healthy we will score points next near. Again, I get that's a big IF, but I don't think we can say the same for the defense. Any quality player added on defense can allow personnel juggling to get the best athletes on the field.

I think the staff is expecting Eifler to take Del'Shawn's starting spot. We have no idea how he'll play in games but he's had a year to practice with the team and must have been ranked as highly as he was out of high school for a reason.

Other than that, we add V. Brown into the mix as well as Beason. Okpala certainly has the size to end up in the rotation at SDE right away. I don't expect Coleman and Randolph to contribute right away but who knows? Thompson is obviously going to RS.

 

[Joel Goodson]

I get that QB is the focus of the offense, and to a certain extent the team, but I really think we can win with MJ, and if IW wins the job so much the better. What I would really like is another Delshawn Phillips. If the offense stays healthy we will score points next near. Again, I get that's a big IF, but I don't think we can say the same for the defense. Any quality player added on defense can allow personnel juggling to get the best athletes on the field.

Losing Dru Mathis hurt. As did Adoeye and Robertson. Yeah, we could really use another stud LB.

 

[dbeverly26]

Seriously, is Whitman's life in trouble if Lovie doesn't succeed or something?

 

[KrushCow31]

Am I the only one who thinks IW wins the starting spot and it isn't even close? MJ did great but he was the 947th ranked recruit. IW spent some time as a 5 star and is the 109th overall recruit.

 

[ivwilsoniv]

Seriously, is Whitman's life in trouble if Lovie doesn't succeed or something?

His reputation, trust, and job security as Illinois AD is tied pretty closely to Lovie.

 

[TownieMatt]

Am I the only one who thinks IW wins the starting spot and it isn't even close? MJ did great but he was the 947th ranked recruit. IW spent some time as a 5 star and is the 109th overall recruit.

His 5 star rating is based on his athletic ability, not his QB play. Yes, he was a fantastic HS QB, but we have to admit that there are question marks about his ability to play the position at this level. Sure, you can talk about Brees and Russel Wilson, but those guys are exceptions, and IW is even smaller than those guys.

Personally, I would be very surprised if Williams started any games at QB this upcoming season. I think he'll play QB, but also see the field as a runner and slot receiver some of Smith's more creative formations.

 

[mhuml32]

Am I the only one who thinks IW wins the starting spot and it isn't even close? MJ did great but he was the 947th ranked recruit. IW spent some time as a 5 star and is the 109th overall recruit.

Isaiah Williams coming in and blowing out the competition would be an incredible sign. Good sign? This Rod Smith offense is built for someone like him. Bad sign? 247 says his HS senior year completion percentage was 50.4%. Looking at a smattering of past Illinois QBs (Lunt, Juice, Rivers), first-year starting QBs have an average drop of 10% completion rate from HS senior year to college freshman year, putting Isaiah on track for a 40% completion percentage for year one. MJ had a fairly solid first year and I would be excited about him taking the leap forward, say, 60% completion percentage - 14 TDs - 6 INTs. Sprinkle in 10 snaps a game for IW that are primarily running plays with some interesting play-action opportunities? Sign me up.

 

[TheGMan]

Isaiah Williams coming in and blowing out the competition would be an incredible sign. Good sign? This Rod Smith offense is built for someone like him. Bad sign? 247 says his HS senior year completion percentage was 50.4%. Looking at a smattering of past Illinois QBs (Lunt, Juice, Rivers), first-year starting QBs have an average drop of 10% completion rate from HS senior year to college freshman year, putting Isaiah on track for a 40% completion percentage for year one. MJ had a fairly solid first year and I would be excited about him taking the leap forward, say, 60% completion percentage - 14 TDs - 6 INTs. Sprinkle in 10 snaps a game for IW that are primarily running plays with some interesting play-action opportunities? Sign me up.

If all he is getting is 10 snaps a game, I would prefer they only do that for 4 games and keep his redshirt. Now if he getting more snaps at other positions along with 10 snaps a game at QB, then that changes things.