Is it really that hard to see that this team will be better next year? We are losing Aaron Jordan, ADLR, and a walk on. We are gaining a 5 Star Center. I know we cannot predict any transfers, so I will just assume everyone stays. This team will make a huge jump next year. I get that as Illinois Fans we have been let down so much over the years. This shouldn't make us completely blind tho. I don't see how we won't be better next year. Can anyone explain to me what they see so I can understand the other side?
Sure, here's the explanation:
You're projecting based on hope, not history. Recent history is not so good -- lots of turnover, below .500 ball, and struggling to execute overall.
From a basketball standpoint, you can debate back and forth whether each of your suppositions is likely, but most people use history as their guide. Let's start with some facts and stats we can agree on, since they're readily available. Then I'll take on the comments.
Facts/Stats/Analysis
We will not get an at-large bid.
We will not get an auto-bid without a freakin miracle (Odds are 100:1)
Kenpom ranking is 78th, essentially a non-factor in post-season play.
Sagarin's predictor ranking is 83rd, roughtly the same as Kenpom, but a little lower.
NET ranking of 105. Not a fan of this, but the committee uses it. One way to think of these rankings is that you need to pass somewhere between 40 & 50 decent teams to get into the dance. Both of the models have us dead last in conference. Note that (2) teams actually lost more games than us (Neb & NW)
We don't know who we will bring back next year, but the NCAA transfer rate of 40% in the first 2 years means we should brace to lose at least some of our young players.
Importantly, we don't know if Ayo stays, but we do know we lose a starter in AJ. Losing 2 starters is not generally a recipe for being better, btw
Roster turnover since Underwood arrived has been high
Comments
So the first question, is how do you break-even? You're losing a starter for sure in AJ, and you might (I'll guess 25%) lose a stud freshman in Ayo. You're losing a back-up center in ADR. I think with ADR, we're looking at a lot of options, and already have a great freshman center in Giorgi, so I think we're ok there. The back-court depends on Ayo staying. Samba is still raw, but he and Kofi should provide something as viable as ADR. Neither will displace Giorgi --he's special and a great fit. So let's assume optimistically and because prevailing sentiment is that Ayo's borderline NBA, that he stays. Who else do we lose, and how do you overcome that loss? We didn't land any wings (yet anyway) and there are some young guys who didn't get much PT even when we struggled. So you have to look at those guys as vulnerable to transfer. If everyone stays, and that would be contrary to recent history, you're relying on some young wings (I use wings for lack of a better term) to really step up. The reason these guys haven't seen the court, let's be honest, is that they haven't excelled in Coach's mind, enough to trust them over the guys that did play. For sure they will improve, but they still have to understand and execute a demanding offense, as well as demanding defense.
So let's assume for the sake of argument that key guys in the freshman class, Ayo, Jones, Kane, Griffin, all stay, and one of those last 3 improves enough to jump ahead of AJ's contribution (I think it's unlikely, but within the realm of possibility). You still need a lot of improvement to get to tournament level. It's hard to put into perspective how big the gap there is between us in a tourney team. At our best, we were clearly performing at a tournament level, so I can see why some posters project it. However, from a metrics standpoint, we're averaging +5 ppg away. That might not sound like much, but look at it this way: over 30 games, you need 150 more points after losing at least 1 starter. Take out our good/great nights where we won, and you're realistically looking at getting 150 points over 20 games. It's possible, but it's a big ask.
So sure, project all kinds of improvement --optimism keeps us going as fans. If guys step up, and we're consistent, I think we're dancing next year, maybe even dangerous. I think outsiders however, will go with modest improvement if Ayo stays, stepping back if he's gone, and something closer to where we are if other key freshman leave.
Make sense?
... however, on this Monday morning (and some unfortunate health issues with my grandpa), I am going to grasp for some positivity! 