W/L’s:
2017-18: 5-13 vs power 5/NCAA tournament teams+UNLV .277, 4-15 in conference games
2018-19: 8-19 vs power 5/NCAA tournament teams+UNLV .297, 7-13 in conference
Roster turnover:
2017-18: 6 underclassmen (4 freshmen), 7 returning players, 4 returning starters (Black, Kipper?, Finke, Lucas)
Starters: Lucas (S), Trent (F),Alstork(G. Sr), Black (J), Finke (Rs. Sr.)
Offseason: 8 lost players (5 transfers, 4 starters depart)
2018-19: 9 underclassmen (6 freshmen), 4 returning players (scholarship), 1 returning starter
Starters: Ayo (F), Trent (S), Williams (S), Jordan(Sr)**, Giorgi (F)****
**6”5 guarding the 4
**** 6”9, next best offer: Hofstra
2019-20 (as of now):
Nonconference: @Arizona, Missouri, Gavitt Game, ACC/B10, TBD
20 conference games
minimum 24/31 games vs. Power-5 Opponents
Roster Breakdown:
PG/SG: Ayo*, Trent*, Feliz, Williams
SF: Jones, Griffin
PF: Giorgi*, Nichols
C: Cockburn*, Kane, January
*double digit scorer/Top 40 recruit
Seniors: Nichols, Feliz
Juniors: Trent, Williams
Sophomores: Ayo, Jones, Griffin, Giorgi, Kane
Freshmen: Cockburn, January
7 underclassmen, 2 freshmen, 4 upperclassmen, 9 returning players
**first time in 3 years we have more returning players than we have freshmen
Starting 5: Ayo (S), Trent (J), Jones (S), Giorgi (S), Cockburn (F)
Bench: Feliz (Sr.), Nichols (Sr.), Williams(J), Griffin (S), Kane (S), January (F)
So, those are the facts. I think we schedule 1-2 more marquee non-con games, none will be 3 games in 3 days.
@Arizona is a likely L/toss up
Mizzou has to be a win
Likely get a lower level Big East team, but on the road—toss up
ACC/B10 at home, has to be a win
1-2 more “marquee games” likely at home, have to win
Assuming we schedule a few cupcakes that’s 9-2 at best IMO. 7-4 at worst. Possibly 10-1 depending on matchups/rest of schedule
Big Ten:
Wisconsin:Happ, Iverson
Purdue: Cline, Eifort, maybe Edwards
Maryland: Likely losses Fernando, Smith
Iowa: Baer, Cook?
Northwestern: sucks
Indiana: Langford
Michigan: Matthews, possibly Iggy/Poole
MSU: Goins, McQuaid
Penn State: Reaves
Nebraska: Palmer, Watson, Copeland,Borchardt
Rutgers: Doorson
Ohio St: Jackson, Lane, Woods
Minnesota: McBrayer, Murphy
Obviously i’m not sure on recruiting classes, but Michigan St, Indiana, Ohio St, Maryland, Michigan likely bring in high-level talent
Likely to be better than us: MSU, OSU, Iowa, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland
Likely to be similar to us: Wisconsin, Indiana, Rutgers, Penn State
We should beat: Northwestern, Minnesota, Nebraska
Recipe for NCAA’s:
1. Return mostly if not everyone
2. 1 more spring signing that can make an impact right away (wing)
3. 8-9 non-conference wins at a minimum
4. Sweep Northwestern, Minnesota, Nebraska
5. Go .500 against Wisconsin, Indiana,Rutgers, Penn State
6. Win 2-3 games against MSU, OSU, Iowa, Michigan, Purdue, Maryland
7. Win the gimme games on schedule
8. Win 1-2 BTT games
that would put us somewhere around 18-14–23-12. with 9-12 conference wins, likely 6-8 in conference standings
I think that’s very doable. Go illini.