I’ve seen us everywhere from mid teens (Katz, Barttorvik) down to 67 (Bilas) or so. No one knows how good we’ll be. If we start 3-0 with wins over GCU and Zona, we’ll probably be ranked. If we start 1-2 (decent chance), we won’t be close to ranked (but that won’t mean we won’t get there this season). We are unproven and we won 12 games last year with most of our same lineup. Need to win games before we can seriously criticize modest/pessimistic projections.
There are only 2 things that can happen that would prevent us from being ranked heading into Week 4.
1. We lose to both GCU AND Arizona.
2. We lose to any team not named GCU or Arizona in our first 6.
If we start 3-0 that means we would have a Q4, Q2, and Q1 win. We'd be 1-0 at home and 2-0 on the road. We'd also have beaten a ranked opponent. That'd be one of the best Week 1 resumes in college hoops and would almost for sure get us ranked. We're currently ~#33. With a 3-0 start we'd clearly be ahead of Arizona (#21) due to the head-to-head. We'd also be ahead of either Auburn or Davidson since one of those teams will lose. We'd pass Tennessee, Marquette, and Harvard who currently have more votes than us but who don't have any opportunities for impressive week 1 wins. So that puts us at #28 already, just outside the rankings. The only team that I could see jumping us without causing another team to drop below us would be if Florida St beat both Pitt and Florida (#6) so that could bump Illinois to #29. Teams that are currently ranked ahead of us that might lose include Washington, Colorado, Purdue (#23), Saint Mary's (#20), and Ohio State (#18). Even if none of those teams lose, I'd expect that teams like VCU (#25), LSU ($22), Xavier (#19), and Utah State (#17) would then get bumped since they will only have 1-2 Q4 easy home wins on their resume which would make room for Illinois just inside the top 25. So, depending on how the Washington, Colorado, Auburn, Purdue, Saint Mary's, and Ohio State games go, a 3-0 Illinois start should be good enough to be ranked #19-25.
If we start 2-1 with our lone loss @ Arizona then we'd have a Q4 and Q2 win with a Q1 loss and would be 1-1 on the road. Arizona would probably move up the rankings and teams like VCU (#25), LSU ($22), Xavier (#19), and Utah State (#17) would remain ahead of us. We'd still probably pass Tennessee, Marquette, and Harvard if we keep it close @ Arizona. If Colorado, Purdue, Saint Mary's, and Ohio State lose in Week 1 we could still pass them which would move us from #33 to #26-30 so we'd be right on the edge of being ranked but probably not quite there. We have no games in Week 2 so we'd have to wait until our three Week 3 home games which should take us to 5-1 and then we'd probably still end up ranked heading into Week 4.
If we start 2-1 with our lone loss @ GCU (which I personally think is our most likely start) the only difference from the previous is that the Arizona win would be slightly more favorable (and Arizona would be knocked out of the rankings) and the GCU loss being quite a bit worse. However, I think that as long as Arizona doesn't flop and decrease the value of our win, that by the end of week 3 when we're 5-1, Illinois still ends up ranked heading into Week 4.
I think we're much more likely to drop the GCU game than the Arizona game since I don't think people realize how loud the GCU crowd is going to be. They're sold out with standing room only tickets and are advertising the game as a "purple out". The already loud crowd is going to be insane and I think that it's going to rattle our players. Players like Kofi and Verdonk won't be used to that atmosphere and I think players that should be stepping into greater roles on the team like Griffin, Kipper, and Da'Monte might be impacted as well. Arizona should be the stronger team, but you can't discredit the effects of our first road game in a stadium as loud as GCU. Factor in that the players might get caught thinking about the "tougher" Arizona game and this is a recipe for our first loss of the season.
