For the most part, I have been a voice that has been very pro-Lovie and staff and we qualified for a bowl game, with an extraordinary season. We had a phenomenal special teams. We established a strong identity on defense. And we saw vast improvement as a team.
The offense took a step back, which is as expected given the status of our qb room, but the offense did a good enough job protecting the ball. This allowed our turnover margin and special teams to help us win just enough. It would be silly to think that this offense won’t improve (there isn’t much way to go down). And it will be important for the offense to sustain drives next season. The defense can’t stay on the field that much if we want to win games. But with 4 linemen returning from one of the better offensive lines in the big ten, a returning qb that improved over the season and will get time to work With receivers, all top receivers returning, and more talent at receiver than we have had in a long time, I would expect vast improvement. Now, for the sake of completeness, we lost important running backs and I don’t think that should go unmentioned. We will step back at depth and quality of running backs, but we still have Epstein and Chase Brown, and with the added strength and quality of our line, I believe will be good enough to not step back too far.
On defense, we established an identity, we are a turnover defense, that scores touchdowns. We had an extraordinary year. We placed first in fbs with defensive touchdowns. 2nd in fumbles, and were close to top in the nation in all other turnover categories (except int). It would be silly to think there would be one regression toward the mean. That’s how this thing works. You are top in the nation one year, and you regress toward the mean. But our defensive identity is this category, I think we may not lead the nation, but we should expect to be in the top 10-15. If we aren’t, I don’tthink we qualify for a bowl.
Outside of our turnovers, our defense was fairly mediocre/bad. We were 77th in total defense (and there are 65ish power 5 teams). But there were some great improvements. When healthy, we looked very good. We held Wisconsin to 150ish rushing yards. Michigan gave up 359, the great Michigan state defense gave up 222. And we gave up 149, in a game where they were leading the entire game. We held Purdue to 268 total yards And we played Iowa down to the wire. When healthy, we could play with anyone defensively and that couldn’t be said in any of the past many seasons. Couple that with the fact that the offense often failed to get first downs, we can temper the mediocre defensive rankings. Overall, if we could keep this level of defensive play and improve our offense back to 2018 levels, I would expect a huge increase in the quality of our team.
However, We lose some key pieces. To start, we lose our defensive line, our all big ten linebacker, and our safety, Stanley green, who when he was out we lost to eastern Michigan and Nebraska, two games we should not have lost. At linebacker, we have considerable depth. Plus we add Derrick smith, and lavar Gardner, I could really see Gardner step into dele’s role if he could learn the defense fast enough. We also have a host of talented linebackers, including two freshmen phenoms, Barnes and Cooper, who will both he able to contribute next year along with tolson, who made some key plays this year.
At defensive tackle, there are a lot more question marks. Losing Milan, oliver, Jackson, and Oladipo are huge. We need Avery to get conditioning, and deon pate to make a leap. We need impala to become serviceable, and then we brought in shipton. But, this group needs to improve and I don’t see it without another major transfer pickup. Our defensive ends should have enough experience to improve, assuming we don’t lose Betiku to the draft. I’ve seen him projected as a middle round pick, and I think he would benefit from another year of college ball. But gay and carney can improve and Coleman and Randolph could become serviceable. Which would keep us close to where we are now.
We return all cbs and we add a year of weight onto Witherspoon and beason. At safety, we are not so sure. We struggled at safety and it is not clear who can fill the shoes of Stanley green. We need to find at least one, if not two new safeties that can play significant minutes, but if we do, this defense can be solid.
With one of the best special teams in the country and everyone returning, I expect this unit to improve.
Which begs the question, will we be better next year? It’s hard for me to say no. Obviously, we need help on the offensive line, and we need depth. We need to fill a hole at safety and defensive tackle. If we can fill those holes, the defense should
Improve. The offense should take another major step up, and special teams should remain similarly consistent. I would expect the wins to improve. But the wins are less important to me. The team was visibly better and we need to see more improvement. The depth has improved, but not nearly enough to sustain any type of significant injuries. But this is football, just as easily as we won 6, we could have won 3 or 9 games last season. And even if we should win 8 games, we could easily win 4 or 11. And to some extent that is luck. I mean, do we return 3 defensive touchdowns or 6? Could be the difference in 3 wins.
I expect us to be better, I expect our defensive efficiency to improve, our turnover stats to regress (but still remain the key to our identity). And most importantly, I expect the offense will step back into top 70-80 and if that happens I expect us to win 8+ games.
The offense took a step back, which is as expected given the status of our qb room, but the offense did a good enough job protecting the ball. This allowed our turnover margin and special teams to help us win just enough. It would be silly to think that this offense won’t improve (there isn’t much way to go down). And it will be important for the offense to sustain drives next season. The defense can’t stay on the field that much if we want to win games. But with 4 linemen returning from one of the better offensive lines in the big ten, a returning qb that improved over the season and will get time to work With receivers, all top receivers returning, and more talent at receiver than we have had in a long time, I would expect vast improvement. Now, for the sake of completeness, we lost important running backs and I don’t think that should go unmentioned. We will step back at depth and quality of running backs, but we still have Epstein and Chase Brown, and with the added strength and quality of our line, I believe will be good enough to not step back too far.
On defense, we established an identity, we are a turnover defense, that scores touchdowns. We had an extraordinary year. We placed first in fbs with defensive touchdowns. 2nd in fumbles, and were close to top in the nation in all other turnover categories (except int). It would be silly to think there would be one regression toward the mean. That’s how this thing works. You are top in the nation one year, and you regress toward the mean. But our defensive identity is this category, I think we may not lead the nation, but we should expect to be in the top 10-15. If we aren’t, I don’tthink we qualify for a bowl.
Outside of our turnovers, our defense was fairly mediocre/bad. We were 77th in total defense (and there are 65ish power 5 teams). But there were some great improvements. When healthy, we looked very good. We held Wisconsin to 150ish rushing yards. Michigan gave up 359, the great Michigan state defense gave up 222. And we gave up 149, in a game where they were leading the entire game. We held Purdue to 268 total yards And we played Iowa down to the wire. When healthy, we could play with anyone defensively and that couldn’t be said in any of the past many seasons. Couple that with the fact that the offense often failed to get first downs, we can temper the mediocre defensive rankings. Overall, if we could keep this level of defensive play and improve our offense back to 2018 levels, I would expect a huge increase in the quality of our team.
However, We lose some key pieces. To start, we lose our defensive line, our all big ten linebacker, and our safety, Stanley green, who when he was out we lost to eastern Michigan and Nebraska, two games we should not have lost. At linebacker, we have considerable depth. Plus we add Derrick smith, and lavar Gardner, I could really see Gardner step into dele’s role if he could learn the defense fast enough. We also have a host of talented linebackers, including two freshmen phenoms, Barnes and Cooper, who will both he able to contribute next year along with tolson, who made some key plays this year.
At defensive tackle, there are a lot more question marks. Losing Milan, oliver, Jackson, and Oladipo are huge. We need Avery to get conditioning, and deon pate to make a leap. We need impala to become serviceable, and then we brought in shipton. But, this group needs to improve and I don’t see it without another major transfer pickup. Our defensive ends should have enough experience to improve, assuming we don’t lose Betiku to the draft. I’ve seen him projected as a middle round pick, and I think he would benefit from another year of college ball. But gay and carney can improve and Coleman and Randolph could become serviceable. Which would keep us close to where we are now.
We return all cbs and we add a year of weight onto Witherspoon and beason. At safety, we are not so sure. We struggled at safety and it is not clear who can fill the shoes of Stanley green. We need to find at least one, if not two new safeties that can play significant minutes, but if we do, this defense can be solid.
With one of the best special teams in the country and everyone returning, I expect this unit to improve.
Which begs the question, will we be better next year? It’s hard for me to say no. Obviously, we need help on the offensive line, and we need depth. We need to fill a hole at safety and defensive tackle. If we can fill those holes, the defense should
Improve. The offense should take another major step up, and special teams should remain similarly consistent. I would expect the wins to improve. But the wins are less important to me. The team was visibly better and we need to see more improvement. The depth has improved, but not nearly enough to sustain any type of significant injuries. But this is football, just as easily as we won 6, we could have won 3 or 9 games last season. And even if we should win 8 games, we could easily win 4 or 11. And to some extent that is luck. I mean, do we return 3 defensive touchdowns or 6? Could be the difference in 3 wins.
I expect us to be better, I expect our defensive efficiency to improve, our turnover stats to regress (but still remain the key to our identity). And most importantly, I expect the offense will step back into top 70-80 and if that happens I expect us to win 8+ games.