Pregame: Illinois at Purdue, Tuesday, January 21st, 6:00pm CT, ESPNU

[PtownIllini8]

It would be really fun to keep this "breakout year" going with another busted streak, huh? By my count we have lost 7 straight in West Lafayette, with our last win coming on 12/30/2008 in an overtime victory at #9 Purdue to open conference play in the 2009 season! It would be oh so sweet to snap that streak in our next road game after we stopped the Wisconsin skid.

P.S. While I was looking this up, I came across the five opponents Illinois basketball has played the most since the 1949-50 season, and it was kind of interesting:

130 vs. Wisconsin (75-55, .577)
129 vs. Indiana (58-71, .450)
127 vs. Ohio State (68-59, .535)
126 vs. Michigan (63-63, .500) ... hopefully 64-63 soon!
126 vs. Northwestern (99-27, .785)

We ended up tied for 2nd with Purdue that year but were the 2 seed because of that win on the road, the only game we played in the regular season. Sad that Chet got hurt late that year.

 

[TxChief]

So for those interested, our NET ranking dropped to 40. That's only 3 spots, so nothing dramatic. Actually think that's a good sign, because we only have 1 more lowly team on the schedule. Just need to win our share.

This NET system is just a joke. If we were just behind one team we had beaten, ok, two is a fluke, but 4, come on. Really, NET needs an overhaul. So do we have to start losing to move back up? If you look at the stats, Rutgers and Illinois look like Siamese twins and what are they, 20 spots ahead.
Just BS.

 

[ILLHangOut]

My take from that NW game is that we just can’t afford to play DW against a zone D.

I’m optimistic based on last weeks article about BU’s adaptability that he’ll work it out, but there’s little room for error.

Does PU ever play zone, or is everyone umder the Keady tree as stubborn as Bruce in that regard?

 

[OrangeNTude]

Case 1 (head): There are one or more periods where the Illini struggle to score. The crowd and Purdue defensive pressure flusters the Illini as Ayo, Trent, Dre and the crew come up empty on several possessions, while Stefanovich gets free and hits multiple treys. Either Haarms or T. Williams get going offensively. Enough defensive lapses allow Purdue shooters to hit treys and the crowd at Mackey has a fun night. The Illini keep it competetive for about 25 minutes but Purdue runs make it seem out of reach the rest of the way.
Purdue: 75
Good guys: 63

Case 2 (heart): Purdue plays well but the Illini show discipline on offense and D. Illinois may get in a 7-9 point hole but are able to string together enough good sets on O and stops on D to hang around. With attention to some sets installed in practice and improving chemistry, the offense experiences mostly success throughout the game with few droughts. Looks are generated and spread around for Trent, Ayo, Alan, Dre, Kofi, Giorgi, and Kipper. The Illini scrap their way to convert baskets late, causing the home crowd to groan as they take a lead with less than 2 minutes remaining. They hold on to win by one point just like in Madison.
Illini: 68
Purdon't: 67

 

[Illiniguy13]

KenPom and NET didn't like our NW win very much. Looks like we're hovering at 35 and 40, respectively.

I respect KenPom and the big brains that factor out rankings, but in cases like this, sometimes the game is so much more than numbers. We are a better team than we were last week for hanging on against a near-perfect NW performance.

 

[illiniguy1987]

I can't stand the NET rankings. We've won four in a row and dropped almost 10 spots. Is a close loss on the road against a good team worth more than a close win at home vs a Mediocre team? So, it we lose 65-63 vs Purdue, we'll get more "credit" than our win on Saturday?

I get what you’re saying but wouldn’t a two point loss on the road to a good team be a better indicator of how “good” this team is than squeaking by the worst team in the conference on our home court?

 

[illini55]

This NET system is just a joke. If we were just behind one team we had beaten, ok, two is a fluke, but 4, come on. Really, NET needs an overhaul. So do we have to start losing to move back up? If you look at the stats, Rutgers and Illinois look like Siamese twins and what are they, 20 spots ahead.
Just BS.

Rutgers didn't lose to Miami and Missouri. Who you lose to counts the same as who you beat. Maybe more.

 

[illini55]

the rest of the season seems pretty simple to me as far as if we win or not - if we just have a decent shooting %. Any game we go something like 50% from 2 and 25% from 3 or 40% from 2 and 35-40% from 3 (or better obviously) I think we will win or at worst it will be very close. But...we will certainly lay another egg or two offensively.

We are a solid team all around, when we shoot decent we’re gonna win. I think they’re getting more consistent, but most importantly, consistent in the last 3 minutes of the game.

Purdue has looked better for sure since we stomped them, but we have also continued to close games.

Illini 68 Purdue 63

I'd say how we guard the three point line will be the determinative factor in how many of the next eight games we end up winning. We will score enough points to win if we can just limit the spurts of the three point runs.

 

[illini55]

So, what you're saying is the losing some games this week will help us? Obviously, I want us to win, but losing against top competition would actually boost our NET?

Winning against top competition will boost our NET greatly. Losing against top competition won't have much of an effect.

 

[RML]

I can't stand the NET rankings. We've won four in a row and dropped almost 10 spots. Is a close loss on the road against a good team worth more than a close win at home vs a Mediocre team? So, it we lose 65-63 vs Purdue, we'll get more "credit" than our win on Saturday?

Try to remember our rankings aren't just based on.what we do, but also on what a couple hundred other teams do.

 

[EyeoftheIllini]

This NET system is just a joke. If we were just behind one team we had beaten, ok, two is a fluke, but 4, come on. Really, NET needs an overhaul. So do we have to start losing to move back up? If you look at the stats, Rutgers and Illinois look like Siamese twins and what are they, 20 spots ahead.
Just BS.

I’m too lazy to look at NET rankings for these teams, but out of conference Rutgers has wins over Stephen F. Austin (15-3 with upset win over Duke) and Seton Hall (14-4 and ranked). Their losses are to St. Bonnie (12-6) and Pittsburgh (12-6 with wins against FSU and, though not very good this year, NC twice). Illinois’ best out of conference win is against Hawaii (12-6 but no significant wins of their own). Our loss to Arizona is still a “good” loss, but other losses to Miami (10-7) and Missouri (9-8) hurt us. Rutgers also has one less loss than the Illini, and NET I don’t believe takes into consideration head to head matchups. I’m not sure how much committee deviates from the NET come selection and seeding time, but I believe they have latitude and that is when head to head would come into play.

 

[Calvin]

KenPom has us going 1-7 over the next 8 games, BTW, I hope you are not disappointed but Vegas won't have the Purdue game as 2 to 3 points. Bart Torvik has us going 2-6 over next 8 games. I sure hope both guys are way off.

That's a bit too opaque for me. What are you saying the line will be?

 

[breadman]

It appears Giorgi has found an efficient way to deliver his mid-range and 3-point jump shot. Let's hope this continues. This was a very unexpected but very welcome, revelation, in my opinion. Paired with Ayo's mid-range guarantee, very deadly!!!

 

[sacraig]

KenPom has us going 1-7 over the next 8 games, BTW, I hope you are not disappointed but Vegas won't have the Purdue game as 2 to 3 points. Bart Torvik has us going 2-6 over next 8 games. I sure hope both guys are way off.

I am a huge fan of the statistical sites like KenPom and Torvik. That said, one thing they don't seem to capture well (and why would they, it's just a statistical model) is when a team has a light switch moment in a season. The models take into account the entire season, but for us it is almost like a tale of two seasons. It's two different teams that have played the two halves of our schedule so far.

I suppose it remains to be seen whether our improvement is durable or just a flash in the pan, but if durable, a season-long statistical model will tend to underpredict the late-season success of a team like what ours appears to be.

 

[Joel Goodson]

We need to assert ourselves defensively and hit a decent percentage of our shots. They can be had, but only if we execute. Gut check time. Would be great if Griffin has a strong bounce back game.

 

[EyeoftheIllini]

Not feeling real comfortable about this game. Certainly can win, just not sure Illini will. More confident about the Michigan game than this one -- though that one will be tough too.

 

[ILLHangOut]

Those critical of the fact we dropped in NET this week may be happy next week.

Road wins in NET, all things equal, are worth 2.33 home wins. Win both @PU, and @NW this week, and our NET should skyrocket.

 

[miked4482]

Those critical of the fact we dropped in NET this week may be happy next week.

Road wins in NET, all things equal, are worth 2.33 home wins. Win both @PU, and @NW this week, and our NET should skyrocket.

or @pu and @mich

 

[TCTORNADO]

That's a bit too opaque for me. What are you saying the line will be?

5 or 6

 

[urbanite]

I am a huge fan of the statistical sites like KenPom and Torvik. That said, one thing they don't seem to capture well (and why would they, it's just a statistical model) is when a team has a light switch moment in a season.

That would require some subjectivity in the application of the model. Sure, the model itself is subjective, but at least its application is objective.

Anyway, Torvik's site can make predictions like this on a per-team basis. On the main rankings page, set the start date to the "light switch moment" and note the ranking (e.g. if set to 1/5, Illinois is #6). Now, go to the team page and click on Teamcast. In the box for Projected T-Rank, enter the number noted earlier. Then, scroll down a bit to the bottom of the schedule, and click Submit (under the extra games section). The projected record and schedule (and its expected win percentages) are updated to reflect how the team has been playing since the specified date. This, of course, assumes no other teams improve or get worse over the remainder of the season.

Based on Illinois' performance from 1/5 on, Torvik's overall projection is 21-10 (13-7). The individual game predictions are more favorable, with only four losses: @Purdue (52%), @Iowa (54%), @Rutgers (56%), and @OSU (55%).

 

[skyIdub]

If Giorgi ( and Kofi for that matter) can bring a consistent mid range 10-15' jumper into this offense.....the way we've been moving the ball much more efficiently with Trent....we're going to be a lot better offensively.

They just have to figure out how not to get stuck in the post with a triple/double team and keep the ball moving. The back door cuts worked more against the Kitties zone and I suspect we'll see more of that too.

 

[PtownIllini8]

My take from that NW game is that we just can’t afford to play DW against a zone D.

I’m optimistic based on last weeks article about BU’s adaptability that he’ll work it out, but there’s little room for error.

Does PU ever play zone, or is everyone umder the Keady tree as stubborn as Bruce in that regard?

Yeah, NW's D "held" us to 50% from the field!

 

[PtownIllini8]

I’m too lazy to look at NET rankings for these teams, but out of conference Rutgers has wins over Stephen F. Austin (15-3 with upset win over Duke) and Seton Hall (14-4 and ranked). Their losses are to St. Bonnie (12-6) and Pittsburgh (12-6 with wins against FSU and, though not very good this year, NC twice). Illinois’ best out of conference win is against Hawaii (12-6 but no significant wins of their own). Our loss to Arizona is still a “good” loss, but other losses to Miami (10-7) and Missouri (9-8) hurt us. Rutgers also has one less loss than the Illini, and NET I don’t believe takes into consideration head to head matchups. I’m not sure how much committee deviates from the NET come selection and seeding time, but I believe they have latitude and that is when head to head would come into play.

.......and they don't have a road win that ranks anywhere near our win over Wisconsin. Oh, and they beat Seton Hall without their Big East preseason player of the year. St. Bonnie lost to Siena, Canisius, Ohio, and Vermont, plus a recent 28 point loss to VCU.

 

[PtownIllini8]

Rutgers didn't lose to Miami and Missouri. Who you lose to counts the same as who you beat. Maybe more.

No but they lost to St. Bonnie and they don't have a road win that holds a candle to @Wisconsin.

 

[KnoxIllini2]

The last B1G 5 game win streak we had was during the 2012-2013 season. You know, the last time we made the tournament.