2/19 Games

#1
Illinois can boost their RPI in the following ways:

Purdue needs to beat Indiana
Game Info: 6:00 PM | TV: ESPN
Nebraska needs to beat Maryland
Game Info: 6:00 PM | TV: BTN
Kennesaw State needs to beat Florida Gulf Coast
Game Info: 6:00 PM | TV: ESP3
Georgia Southern needs to beat Troy
Game Info: 6:30 PM

Although a Purdue win would boost our RPI, it would also likely make them a tourney team, which means one less spot for other teams. On the other hand, it would give us an opportunity to go 2-0 against a tourney team which would help our chances tremendously. Same with MSU. Plus nobody wants to root for Indiana.

Despite what's been said on this board, we are not competing against Purdue for a tourney spot, we're competing against all bubble teams.
 
#3
I'm hoping for the opposite outcome here.

Agreed. Maryland's RPI is now 10th, and they have a great chance to win 4 of the next 5 games so it would look really good to have a win against a top 10 team.

On the other hand, with Minnesota's loss against NW, we now have two sub 100 losses and a win would likely move Nebraska into the top 100.
 
#4
New York
Agreed. Maryland's RPI is now 10th, and they have a great chance to win 4 of the next 5 games so it would look really good to have a win against a top 10 team.

On the other hand, with Minnesota's loss against NW, we now have two sub 100 losses and a win would likely move Nebraska into the top 100.

Yeah, the formula that Palm is using just considers how many times we play each team. Since we play Neb twice and Maryland once, Nebraska winning moves our RPI in the right direction. But in terms of resume, our win against Maryland is probably way more important than our games against Nebraska put together (even including lessening the blow of our away loss), so Maryland avoiding a loss may be more valuable to us than any minor boost our RPI gets + taking some of the stain off our loss @ Nebraska.


Anyone have time to do a quick look through of important bubble games today?
 
#5
On the other hand, with Minnesota's loss against NW, we now have two sub 100 losses and a win would likely move Nebraska into the top 100.

It's really a moot point anyway since Maryland is likely to roll them. But if UNL moved into the top 100, it would probably be temporary only given the rest of the game they have to play.

Looks like Minnesota is also going to be flirting with the 100 line, they are projected to barely stay inside, but if they lose that first BTT game...
 
#6
Anyone have time to do a quick look through of important bubble games today?

I don't consider Old Dominion to be one anymore IMO after their last two losses, but a loss tonight Southern Miss would certainly knock them out of contention.

Dayton losing to St. Joe will hurt them quite a bit. It may not knock them off the bubble, but I'd imagine they'd be lower than Illinois.

Temple at SMU will be interesting but a loss wouldn't hurt either team much.

Wofford is a team to keep an eye on. They have a good RPI and they could earn a bid if they win the next 4 games. They can't afford to slip against any of them since they're all terrible opponents.

Ole Miss is playing @ Miss State. A loss there would hurt their chances ton, especially since they already have 3 bad losses.

BYU is still a bubble threat, but losing to San Diego will knock them out.

And of course, Iowa losing to Rutgers would be awesome.
 
#7
Pittsburgh
It's really a moot point anyway since Maryland is likely to roll them. But if UNL moved into the top 100, it would probably be temporary only given the rest of the game they have to play.

Looks like Minnesota is also going to be flirting with the 100 line, they are projected to barely stay inside, but if they lose that first BTT game...

Does the committee still officially use RPI? There are other metrics out there that are probably just as useful if not more so.
 
#8
New York
I don't consider Old Dominion to be one anymore IMO after their last two losses, but a loss tonight Southern Miss would certainly knock them out of contention.

Dayton losing to St. Joe will hurt them quite a bit. It may not knock them off the bubble, but I'd imagine they'd be lower than Illinois.

Temple at SMU will be interesting but a loss wouldn't hurt either team much.

Wofford is a team to keep an eye on. They have a good RPI and they could earn a bid if they win the next 4 games. They can't afford to slip against any of them since they're all terrible opponents.

Ole Miss is playing @ Miss State. A loss there would hurt their chances ton, especially since they already have 3 bad losses.

BYU is still a bubble threat, but losing to San Diego will knock them out.

And of course, Iowa losing to Rutgers would be awesome.


Awesome, I wish there were a site out there that did this automatically. Don't think it would be too hard to list the games of all teams with RPIs between let's say 30 and 70. (and if you wanted to be fancy, narrow that range as it gets closer to selection sunday and/or list games in order by projected RPI impact of a win/loss for the bubble team)
 
#9
New York
Does the committee still officially use RPI? There are other metrics out there that are probably just as useful if not more so.

The Mark Titus article on Grantland yesterday seemed to indicate that committee members use many different metrics, including RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, etc., as well as good wins/bad losses and a bunch of other factors. Seems like the analysis can be somewhat specific to the individual commitee member doing it and there's no agreed one way that everyone uses to evaluate teams.
 
#12
Do we want Purdue to beat IU? Purdue is another bubble team, but it would help our RPI if they win.
 
#13

Deleted member 10676

D
Guest
Do we want Purdue to beat IU? Purdue is another bubble team, but it would help our RPI if they win.

As much as I hate cheering for Indiana, if Lunardi has us as one of the last four in and Purdue as one of the first four out, I'd like to create a little separation.
My own personal opinion.
 
#15
Chicago
Illinois can boost their RPI in the following ways:

Purdue needs to beat Indiana
Game Info: 6:00 PM | TV: ESPN
Nebraska needs to beat Maryland
Game Info: 6:00 PM | TV: BTN
Kennesaw State needs to beat Florida Gulf Coast
Game Info: 6:00 PM | TV: ESP3
Georgia Southern needs to beat Troy
Game Info: 6:30 PM

Although a Purdue win would boost our RPI, it would also likely make them a tourney team, which means one less spot for other teams. On the other hand, it would give us an opportunity to go 2-0 against a tourney team which would help our chances tremendously. Same with MSU. Plus nobody wants to root for Indiana.

Despite what's been said on this board, we are not competing against Purdue for a tourney spot, we're competing against all bubble teams.

Let's see how you feel about your hypothesis if Purdue ends up at 12-6, and Illinois and Iowa both finish tied at 10-8 or Iowa at 11-7? There is NO WAY the committee keeps a Boilermakers squad that likely finishes Top 5 in the conference out of the tourney. In fact, if Purdue beats Indiana on the road tonight, they will likely move ahead of us on the bubble watch.

And Lunardi currently has Iowa barely ahead of Illinois in his bracketology. If we lose our head to head matchup with the Hawkeyes, will that solidify their advantage over us in the eyes of the committee? Even if we hold court at home, thereby sweeping MSU this season (RPI at 33), on paper that appears to be good enough to get us in, but the Hawkeyes could just as easily win 5 of their last 6 games (with a road game @ IU being their toughest matchup).

If that happened, the order of finish would look like this, with Illinois finishing up in 8th place:

Purdue 12-6, Iowa 11-7, Illinois 10-8

Do you really think the Big Ten is worthy of sending 8 teams to the tourney, more than any other conference in the country? I can guarantee you that conference lobbying/politicking by representatives of the ACC, SEC, Big East and Big 12 on the eve of Selection Sunday will voice their opposition.

I believe it will ultimately come down to a game of musical chairs between Purdue, Illinois and Iowa, with all 3 teams being on either side of the First Four In and First Four out. If it's that much of a photo finish between us, I'd wager $$$$ that the committee will let the BTT decide which teams qualify.

So, we absolutely, positively are competing more directly against Purdue and Iowa than other bubble teams like Boise State, BYU, Tulsa, St. John's, etc. for the simple reason that we are playing games against teams in which we can control our own destiny directly, and not just conjecturally via an eye test or some final RPI rating.

Simply put, we need either Purdue or Iowa to tank, and right now it doesn't appear that the Boilers are the weak link in the group.
 
#16
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
If that happened, the order of finish would look like this, with Illinois finishing up in 8th place:

Purdue 12-6, Iowa 11-7, Illinois 10-8

Do you really think the Big Ten is worthy of sending 8 teams to the tourney, more than any other conference in the country?

Doesn't matter. They'll look at the teams independently. If other bubble teams falter while PU and Iowa do what you're suggesting, we'd still be in pretty good consideration.

Edit: I should add, yes, I think PU and Iowa would jump us in that scenario. But there are a lot of other teams in the discussion we'd be compared to.
 
#23
If they beat Rutgers at home, I'd talk about it. That would be a killer for a team that already has bad losses.

Brad Evans has them in:
@YahooNoise
Purdue hangs on. NO DOUBT it deserves an at-large berth. Has 10 B1G wins and 9 RPI top-100 wins and now a signature road W. Boiler up!
https://twitter.com/YahooNoise/status/568593147627835392

Beat Rutgers at home to go 11-7 in B1G play and they have earned their spot.
 
#25
Let's see how you feel about your hypothesis if Purdue ends up at 12-6, and Illinois and Iowa both finish tied at 10-8 or Iowa at 11-7? There is NO WAY the committee keeps a Boilermakers squad that likely finishes Top 5 in the conference out of the tourney. In fact, if Purdue beats Indiana on the road tonight, they will likely move ahead of us on the bubble watch.

And Lunardi currently has Iowa barely ahead of Illinois in his bracketology. If we lose our head to head matchup with the Hawkeyes, will that solidify their advantage over us in the eyes of the committee? Even if we hold court at home, thereby sweeping MSU this season (RPI at 33), on paper that appears to be good enough to get us in, but the Hawkeyes could just as easily win 5 of their last 6 games (with a road game @ IU being their toughest matchup).

If that happened, the order of finish would look like this, with Illinois finishing up in 8th place:

Purdue 12-6, Iowa 11-7, Illinois 10-8

Do you really think the Big Ten is worthy of sending 8 teams to the tourney, more than any other conference in the country? I can guarantee you that conference lobbying/politicking by representatives of the ACC, SEC, Big East and Big 12 on the eve of Selection Sunday will voice their opposition.

I believe it will ultimately come down to a game of musical chairs between Purdue, Illinois and Iowa, with all 3 teams being on either side of the First Four In and First Four out. If it's that much of a photo finish between us, I'd wager $$$$ that the committee will let the BTT decide which teams qualify.

So, we absolutely, positively are competing more directly against Purdue and Iowa than other bubble teams like Boise State, BYU, Tulsa, St. John's, etc. for the simple reason that we are playing games against teams in which we can control our own destiny directly, and not just conjecturally via an eye test or some final RPI rating.

Simply put, we need either Purdue or Iowa to tank, and right now it doesn't appear that the Boilers are the weak link in the group.

No. This post is simply incorrect. Why should we get punished for losing @Iowa when we don't get to play them at home?