2/19 Games

#27
I still don't think Purdue is a lock. Their rpi is going to be 60+ even if they beat Illinois and Rutgers. I still think they either need to steal a game on the road or win a btt game.
 
#29
Let's see how you feel about your hypothesis if Purdue ends up at 12-6, and Illinois and Iowa both finish tied at 10-8 or Iowa at 11-7? There is NO WAY the committee keeps a Boilermakers squad that likely finishes Top 5 in the conference out of the tourney. In fact, if Purdue beats Indiana on the road tonight, they will likely move ahead of us on the bubble watch.

And Lunardi currently has Iowa barely ahead of Illinois in his bracketology. If we lose our head to head matchup with the Hawkeyes, will that solidify their advantage over us in the eyes of the committee? Even if we hold court at home, thereby sweeping MSU this season (RPI at 33), on paper that appears to be good enough to get us in, but the Hawkeyes could just as easily win 5 of their last 6 games (with a road game @ IU being their toughest matchup).

If that happened, the order of finish would look like this, with Illinois finishing up in 8th place:

Purdue 12-6, Iowa 11-7, Illinois 10-8

Do you really think the Big Ten is worthy of sending 8 teams to the tourney, more than any other conference in the country? I can guarantee you that conference lobbying/politicking by representatives of the ACC, SEC, Big East and Big 12 on the eve of Selection Sunday will voice their opposition.

I believe it will ultimately come down to a game of musical chairs between Purdue, Illinois and Iowa, with all 3 teams being on either side of the First Four In and First Four out. If it's that much of a photo finish between us, I'd wager $$$$ that the committee will let the BTT decide which teams qualify.

So, we absolutely, positively are competing more directly against Purdue and Iowa than other bubble teams like Boise State, BYU, Tulsa, St. John's, etc. for the simple reason that we are playing games against teams in which we can control our own destiny directly, and not just conjecturally via an eye test or some final RPI rating.

Simply put, we need either Purdue or Iowa to tank, and right now it doesn't appear that the Boilers are the weak link in the group.

 
#30
Someone asked Brad Evans if it was bad if Purdue won here is his response below...

Brad Evans ‏@YahooNoise 51s51 seconds ago
Why would it hurt Illinois? Illini beat Purdue head-to-head. Boilers' success only bolsters resume. Negative Nancys need to SHH!
 
#31
New York
Someone asked Brad Evans if it was bad if Purdue won here is his response below...

Brad Evans ‏@YahooNoise 51s51 seconds ago
Why would it hurt Illinois? Illini beat Purdue head-to-head. Boilers' success only bolsters resume. Negative Nancys need to SHH!

OTOH we lost to IU at home, so that loss becomes incrementally worse. But on the other other hand, we play Purdue twice, so it's in our interest if they have a great resume.

There are so many competing variables here -- I think the single biggest is: if you play a team, you want them to do well. If you play them twice, you want them to do even better. If it turns out that team is another bubble team, that's secondary. Root against the bubble teams you don't play.
 
#32
Quad-Cities, IL
OTOH we lost to IU at home, so that loss becomes incrementally worse. But on the other other hand, we play Purdue twice, so it's in our interest if they have a great resume.

There are so many competing variables here -- I think the single biggest is: if you play a team, you want them to do well. If you play them twice, you want them to do even better. If it turns out that team is another bubble team, that's secondary. Root against the bubble teams you don't play.

Absolutely!
 
#35
The reason the committee doesn't look at conference record is because of how crazy imbalanced the schedules are. They honestly look at the entire resume ONLY. If the last team out beats the last team in twice, it doesn't mean they make the tournament if the overall resume doesn't allow for it. That's probably a bad scenario because those two teams would be super close resume-wise, but the point stands.

*SOURCE: I'm in Lunardi's bracketology class
 
#37
Yes, I believe that 8 B1G teams can make the tournament. A lot of the teams will have pretty low seeding, so that's what makes our conference "weaker" compared to other years, but the teams are still strong enough to get in the tournament. A "weaker" B1G doesn't necessarily mean less bids. So far 8 B1G teams have resumes good enough to get in compared to all of the teams in CBB. All of the bracketologists will tell you the same thing. A gut feeling and opinion about the conference not being able to field 8 teams, is just that.. a gut feeling, and not based on any objective information.
 
#38
Yes, I believe that 8 B1G teams can make the tournament. A lot of the teams will have pretty low seeding, so that's what makes our conference "weaker" compared to other years, but the teams are still strong enough to get in the tournament. A "weaker" B1G doesn't necessarily mean less bids. So far 8 B1G teams have resumes good enough to get in compared to all of the teams in CBB. All of the bracketologists will tell you the same thing. A gut feeling and opinion about the conference not being able to field 8 teams, is just that.. a gut feeling, and not based on any objective information.


Challenge accepted. I am texting every bracketoligist.
 
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#39
Interesting that the conference is really showing a clear divide in RPI numbers. All 8 teams still with NCAA hopes have RPIs of 60 or better. The other 6 teams are all 96 or worse, soon all of those will probably be 100 or higher.
 
#40
New York
Yes, I believe that 8 B1G teams can make the tournament. A lot of the teams will have pretty low seeding, so that's what makes our conference "weaker" compared to other years, but the teams are still strong enough to get in the tournament. A "weaker" B1G doesn't necessarily mean less bids. So far 8 B1G teams have resumes good enough to get in compared to all of the teams in CBB. All of the bracketologists will tell you the same thing. A gut feeling and opinion about the conference not being able to field 8 teams, is just that.. a gut feeling, and not based on any objective information.

Agree - for a far fetched hypothetical, we could have a weak B1G with all 14 teams making the tourney as 8-12 seeds. Basically, everyone does pretty well out of conference (let's say like 10-3 or 11-2 against reasonable SOS) and then everyone goes 500 in conference. Say every single B1G team is rated 28-48 RPI. It's extraordinarily unlikely, but there's nothing saying it's impossible. If it happened, you wouldn't say we were a strong conference since we have zero top 25 teams. You'd say we were a balanced conference with a lot of decent teams, but not a strong conference. You'd probably say we were a weaker conference than a conference with 3 or 4 top 25 teams and the rest total crap.

This is sort of what we have this year, with a little tilting toward the extremes on each end -- one great team, 7 solid teams (maybe 1 good team in Maryland and 6 solid teams), a couple of mediocre teams (Michigan, Minnesota), and a few bad teams. Let's say Levert doesn't get hurt - maybe we're talking about 9 teams potentially in the tournament. If you improved the bottom of the conference a little and made Wisconsin a little worse, we might not be so far away from a conference that has 10+ possible tourney teams but isn't great.
 
#43
Decatur, IL
Nothing else matters on 2/19 when this is available on YouTube. Full game. Illini vs Mizzou. 18 points down. In 1988-89.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRE68RGoVUI

A few things I noticed:

Thats the worst officiating ive ever seen or is that just how things were called all the time back then?

The incredible number of bad 1 and 2 dribble mid range/deep 2 pull ups.

For the most part, the complete lack of ability to create via the dribble by anyone.

Very good passing by pretty much everyone.

The additional guy at the free throw line?

Illinois ability to block shots and get their hands on the ball.
 
#44
Chicago
A few things I noticed:

Thats the worst officiating ive ever seen or is that just how things were called all the time back then?

The incredible number of bad 1 and 2 dribble mid range/deep 2 pull ups.

For the most part, the complete lack of ability to create via the dribble by anyone.

Very good passing by pretty much everyone.

The additional guy at the free throw line?

Illinois ability to block shots and get their hands on the ball.

I have that Mizzou game on my hard drive.

That team was so loaded with athleticism, that they generated a lot of offense from pressure defense leading to transition dunks, and everyone on the floor crashed the glass, which led to close-in offensive rebound putbacks.

Take a look a the impressive FG% for the Top 7 players in the rotation that season:

Battle - 60%
Gill - 54%
Anderson - 54%
Hamilton - 52%
Smith - 52%
Liberty - 48%
Bardo - 44%

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/ill/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2014-15/misc_non_event/2014-15_RecordBook_5.pdf

Hard to imagine a team losing too many games shooting like that from the field.

Such a gutsy, relentless group of guys. My favorite Illini team, without a doubt!