2/21 Games

#1
Minnesota at Wisconsin, 11:00am CT, ESPN

Penn State at Northwestern, 2:00pm CT, ESPNU



There are a ton of important bubble team games Saturday (bolded teams are the ones we want to win):

Pitt @ Syracuse. Pitt has some decent wins, but they're currently on the wrong side of the bubble. One more loss, to either Syracuse or Miami on the 4th, and they'll be NIT bound unless they make some serious noise in the conference tourney.

Seton Hall at @St. Johns. Seton Hall is unlikely to recover after their 5 game losing streak, but they have the talent to beat St. Johns on the road. A loss for St. Johns will not knock them out of contention, but they'll be on thin ice and have little room for error with Xavier, Georgetown, and @Villanova still being on their schedule.

Texas A&M @ South Carolina. South Carolina. Texas A&M is right about where we are on the bubble. The problem for them is that they don't really have any really good wins, but they don't have any bad losses either. South Carolina is much better then their record indicates and have a great chance of pulling the upset at home. A&M will likely only drop to the last 4 in with a loss, but they play @Arkansas in the next game. They also following 3 games are against solid teams, but ones that won't help their resume much if they win, but would really hurt them if they lose.

Florida @ LSU. Florida won't make the tournament unless they win their conference tourney.. and that won't happen. They the talent to beat LSU. Florida beating LSU would help our chances more than you might expect. It would really hurt LSU and put them on the wrong side of the bubble, and it would weaken Texas A&M's resume (their only two top 50 wins are against LSU, who is currently 50th).

ISU @ Texas. Texas is safe for now, but this loss would put them at maybe a 9 or 10 seed. They are 1-8 against top 50 teams. Their worst loss is against Stanford.. But they have to get another top 50 win to make the tournament. Each loss, even against good teams, will slowly put them on thin ice. Again, they'll likely be safe if they lose this game, but their next 3 games are against @West Virginia, @Kansas, and Baylor.. They can certainly lose them all, and that will either put them in the NIT, or make them the most dangerous 12 seed you'll ever see in the tourney.

Miami @ Louisville Although a Miami win would boost our RPI, a win for them would likely put them in the tourney despite their bad losses. A little RPI boost isn't worth another team taking a tourney bid.

Butler @ Xavier. Fortunately for them, they beat Cincinnati which keeps them safe even with another loss, but they can't afford to have many more losses after that. A loss here wouldn't hurt much, but if they do lose they need to win @ St. Johns, or Villanova to feel comfortable about being on the right side of the bubble. Lose all 3 and they're on the wrong side.

Virginia Tech @ NC State. This one is pretty simple, NC State just can't have another bad loss. Lose here, and they're far from being on the right side of the bubble.

Air Force @ Colorado State. Their last four games are against awful teams. If they slip up in any of them, then they're out unless they win the conference.. which is possible.

California @ Stanford. Currently on the right side of the bubble. With only 1 top 50 win( against a stumbling Texas), they need to win at home against okay opponents to keep their hopes alive. Picture what it would be like if we lost to MSU on Sunday.. this loss would be even worse for them. Not a death blow, but worse.

Tennessee @ Ole Miss. With two really bad losses on their resume, Ole Miss can't afford to lose many more games. They'll be safe with a loss, but they have a tough stretch with Georgia next, followed by @LSU and @Alabama.

Georgia @ Alabama. Georgia is heading in the wrong direction. Lose here that makes it a 3 game losing streak and puts them dangerously close to the wrong side of the bubble. Their next game is @Ole Miss too.

UCLA @ Arizona. This won't be a bad loss to UCLA by any means, but just how we dropped a couple spots when we lost to Wisconsin, UCLA would also drop a bit.. Currently an 11 seed, but this could put them on the wrong side of the bubble depending on how other teams do.

Cincinnati @ Houston. They're currently a 9/10 seed, but they're on a 3 game losing streak. They'll be on the bubble with another loss.
 
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#3
Very nice write up. My only comment would be that Texas is in, almost no matter what. They are really good.
 
#4
Another very good game, with no tournament impact for us, is West Virginia @ OK State.
1:00 Central, EspnNews.

West Virginia is just sooo hectic, its exhausting to just watch them. Playing them must be crazy.
 
#6
For a "really good team", they have a really poor resume. Only 2 wins over teams even being discussed as tourney teams.

You're right about that. They're a mystery that is probably best explained by muttering "Rick Barnes". Gut gets less from talent than any coach in America. The two games that they did win were blowouts. and they have 4 more chances. But I guess I'm a bit too taken by their promise and need to temper expectations. I'll still take the bet that they make the tourney. But they do need to beat a few of their remaining strong opponents. Have to agree reluctantly with you and Newman.
 
#7
Minnesota at Wisky

First half of this game played out exactly like the Illini game. Minnesota played wisky close until 3 min left in 1st half and then wisky takes control for 8 point lead.
 
#10
Just saw on the Wisconsin post game on espn that lunardi has 8 teams from the B1G in the tourney right now. Obviously he isn't the one in charge of the selections, but remember a month or so ago when people on this board were arguing the number of bids the conference would get? It certainly wasn't 8.

Moral of the story is a lot can happen in a month.
 
#11
Decatur, IL
Jerrel Martin from LSU just went in-between his legs for a dunk.

 
#14
Lombard
Miami giving Louisville all they can handle in the first half at the Yum Center. It is still early yet, but a Miami win would make our loss to them look better, but we are competing against bubble teams, so a loss here for them might not be a bad thing.
 
#15
Orange Krush '04 & '05
Minnesota at Wisconsin, 11:00am CT, ESPN

Penn State at Northwestern, 2:00pm CT, ESPNU



There are a ton of important bubble team games Saturday (bolded teams are the ones we want to win):

Pitt @ Syracuse.

Seton Hall at @St. Johns.

Texas A&M @ South Carolina.

Florida @ LSU.

The first four all went wrong for us.
 
#18
Los Angeles
Fred Hoiberg is one of the top 5 offensive coaches in the college ranks.
 
#19
I thought about posting Dayton vs. Duquesne last night but I didn't think at upset was likely at all.. Dayton is down 9 with 8 minutes to go. I'm not sure how much they would drop but that would be a terrible, terrible loss.
 
#20
Miami at Louisville

I've watched Louisville a few times now. Not impressed with them at all. I think they are #12 because of their name
 
#21
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Thanks for the write-up, Newman. Saves a lot of time having all the relevant games broken down like this.

I do have to disagree with your bolding in the Stanford game, though. I'm doing the anthem and have a reputation as a good-luck charm to uphold!
 
#23
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Northwestern in medium-dark gray hosting PSU in navy blue. Kind of like a more subdued version of our red/orange fiasco against UW a few years back.