2/9 Weekend Games

#1
Big Ten Finish

Summary: I believe we should be hoping for a 7th place finish in the BIG. As we watch other BIG games the rest of the way, we need to root for the top six (currently Top 25 ranked) teams to win, and root hard for OSU and Minn to lose. We need the beloved to win out at home (Rutgers, PSU, NW, Indiana) and win at PSU.

Detail: I was trying to figure out our best case finish, and who to root for on the scoreboard the rest of the way.

Our finish: Win the five very winnable games listed above to finish 9-11. Add @OSU and we could get to a 10-10 finish, but for the sake of this argument, I’m looking at a 9-11 finish, and what our competition’s path to 12 losses in conference looks like.

Top six: Mich, MSU, Wisconsin, PU, Maryland, and Iowa don’t have realistic paths to 12 losses. I say root for them to win against everyone else, stay ranked, and keep the BIG looking strong at the top.

Bottom 4: RU, NW, Neb, PSU. Assuming we do our part listed above, and the Top Six above do theirs, these four teams all easily get to 12 or more losses and finish below us.

IU: This one is tricky. Four games left against the Top Six, but three of those are at home. If IU were to lose at least three of those four, plus losing to us at SFC, that gets them to 12 losses. That path allows us to benefit if IU wins at MN or home vs OSU. I’ll never really root FOR Indiana, but our best case scenario is probably laid out here where they beat MN and OSU.

OSU: Three games @TopSix teams (losses). Home against Wisconsin. Home against us. @Indiana. @NW. Need them to lose six of these seven. (Assumes they beat NW at home).

MN: Four TopSix games (2 home/2 road). @Neb, @RU, @NW. and home vs. Indiana. Probably need them to lose all four against TopSix plus 2 of the 3 road games.

So there you have it. Root for MN and OSU to lose whenever possible. Root for IU to lose all other games (non-MN/OSU). Root for the current Top Six to win against all non-TopSix (except us of course).

If all that happens, we end up 7th in the BIG, behind six solidly Top 25 teams. Not suggesting that sniffs the bubble, but it sure as heck commands respect.

ILL!
 
#5
Peoria, IL in a van down by the river
Watching Iowa State vs TCU, 4th or 5th time I've seen ISU this year and gotta say glad we took Ayo over THT, woulda been nice to have both, but we definitely got the better of the 2
 
#10
aka Flash Gordon, earthling
Planet Earth, when not battling Ming the Merciless
Fighting Brucies win at Baylor. Eight straight in conference and a two game lead.
edit . . . Ratskin beat me to it.
 
#15
Sycamore, Illinois
And all of the KSU players are Bruce recruits, imagine that!
I am really happy for Bruce and the success they are having. I appreciate what Weber did when he was here. 2003-6 was the most fun I have ever had in basketball seasons. 2005 obviously being the highlight. But it is much easier to enjoy K States season now that we are playing better.
 
#16
I kept a screen print of the KenPom projections from 10/29/18 before any games were played.
No conference games, no non-com games.
Thought it might be interesting.

This thread seems like the place for it.
Basically, KenPom saw a more balanced Big Ten than has unfolded.
Here is a comparison of his projections before the season and today.
MSU 13-7 then vs 15-5 now
Purdue 12-8 vs 15-4 (hmm, only 19 games, must be a rounding problem)
Wiscy 12-8 vs 14-6 today
scUM 11-9 then vs 16-4 now (oof, that projection was waaaay off)
Indy 11-9 vs 8-12 (no tears here)
Maryland 11-9 vs 13-7
PSU 11-9 vs 4-16 now. Just a horrible year for the pedophiles. I'm weeping.
Iowa 10-10 vs 12-8
Nebraska 10-10 vs 6-13 (more rounding) and a big fall off
tOSU 10-10 vs 9-11
Northwestern 9-11 then vs 6-14 now
Minnie 9-11 vs 9-11 now
Illini 7-13 then vs 7-13 now
Rutgers 4-16 then vs 6-14 now

The top is better than projected and the underperforming teams are
Indiana
PSU
Nebby
Northwestern

Just thought it was interesting
 
#17
Sycamore, Illinois
I kept a screen print of the KenPom projections from 10/29/18 before any games were played.
No conference games, no non-com games.
Thought it might be interesting.

This thread seems like the place for it.
Basically, KenPom saw a more balanced Big Ten than has unfolded.
Here is a comparison of his projections before the season and today.
MSU 13-7 then vs 15-5 now
Purdue 12-8 vs 15-4 (hmm, only 19 games, must be a rounding problem)
Wiscy 12-8 vs 14-6 today
scUM 11-9 then vs 16-4 now (oof, that projection was waaaay off)
Indy 11-9 vs 8-12 (no tears here)
Maryland 11-9 vs 13-7
PSU 11-9 vs 4-16 now. Just a horrible year for the pedophiles. I'm weeping.
Iowa 10-10 vs 12-8
Nebraska 10-10 vs 6-13 (more rounding) and a big fall off
tOSU 10-10 vs 9-11
Northwestern 9-11 then vs 6-14 now
Minnie 9-11 vs 9-11 now
Illini 7-13 then vs 7-13 now
Rutgers 4-16 then vs 6-14 now

The top is better than projected and the underperforming teams are
Indiana
PSU
Nebby
Northwestern

Just thought it was interesting
Yes. Interesting. I sure didn’t feel like we would have even the 5 BIG wins we have now a few weeks ago.
 
Likes: illinifan4249
#20
Washington State
IU: This one is tricky. Four games left against the Top Six, but three of those are at home. If IU were to lose at least three of those four, plus losing to us at SFC, that gets them to 12 losses. That path allows us to benefit if IU wins at MN or home vs OSU. I’ll never really root FOR Indiana, but our best case scenario is probably laid out here where they beat MN and OSU.
I've already showered once today, but rooting for IU vs. OSU is leaving me feeling dirty all over again.