2017 Coaching Carousel

[HeartofaChampion]

I do not know your cousin (his perspective is definitely well appreciated) but I know quite a few people in the Athletic Department and some of the donors as well. I have no idea what decision JW will take, but I can definitely confirm that JW really thinks highly of Groce, it is not a pretend or marketing like, it is a genuine very strong respect. Whitman has also been able to secure the support of some influential donors on his decisions (not just specific decisions).

This season is critical, but I am still not sure if Groce misses the dance, but makes the NIT, that Whitman will make change. I can't say that he won't, but I have some serious doubts. And before people start with the "NIT means nothing, nobody watches, etc." it has nothing to do with the value of NIT per se, but the fact that making the NIT means that Groce will be able to have a team that will be on the bubble, having a season around the .500 or slightly better. Combining that with Whitman's strong respect for Groce, I am just not sure he will make a change.

We may or may never find out... making the NIT is not a given at this point.

Based on the donors I've talked to, strong respect for JG is too strong of a statement to describe JW's disposition toward him. I'm sure he respects him, but I don't think he has a lot of confidence in him as the long-term HC. One donor said JW has been actively talking in back channels to prospective coaches about their interest in taking the UI job, including Cuonzo Martin, since the week he was hired as AD. He knows he has a lot of donors' support if he decides to find a new coach. He'd probably prefer that JG get the team to the Dance and remain as coach in order to save $$, but I'm guessing he's working back channels because he knows there's a good chance he'll have to make a change either at the end of this season or next season.

I imagine he wants UI BB to get back to becoming a perennial Dance team and B1G title contender and an occasional foray deep in the tournament and has to openly question whether JG can achieve that level of success based on his first 4 1/2 years on the job.

 

[GForce]

That's the opposite of what I'm doing. Those of us still here are the best fans in the damn world. No fanbase has suffered as much as we have in recent years, see my "misery index" thread for proof of that.

And the fact that a coaching change thread is the most popular topic on this site has to tell you something.

 

[dmac279]

Do you see how these pieces don't fit together logically? Either the NIT matters or it doesn't.

There obviously is a difference between being a 20-win NIT 1-seed and last year's Rutgers. But from the perspective of Illinois Basketball as a commercial entity, there's no FUNCTIONAL difference. Failure is failure. And if this handpicked, deep, talented, experienced, healthy, senior-laden team is a failure, there are no prospects for future success with John Groce, period.

Have to agree, I'm leaning that way too.

 

[Obelix]

Based on the donors I've talked to, strong respect for JG is too strong of a statement to describe JW's disposition toward him. I'm sure he respects him, but I don't think he has a lot of confidence in him as the long-term HC. One donor said JW has been actively talking in back channels to prospective coaches about their interest in taking the UI job, including Cuonzo Martin, since the week he was hired as AD. He knows he has a lot of donors' support if he decides to find a new coach. He'd probably prefer that JG get the team to the Dance and remain as coach in order to save $$, but I'm guessing he's working back channels because he knows there's a good chance he'll have to make a change either at the end of this season or next season.

The people in the AD (athletic department) that I know from my working days at UI do tell me that Whitman does have a very strong respect and likeness for Groce. That is different than strong confidence as a long-term HC, I believe most people have at least some doubts about that.

I know at least 2 of the major/key donors for UI and they have strong confidence in Whitman making decisions and leading the AD. Now as far as the Cuonzo rumors, I have some doubts about the validity of the progressed discussions through back channels and ending up on message boards (another previous post) independent of Martin's personal interest. JW does not strike me as the person to burn bridges in this profession.

 

[Ulysses Everett McGill]

I imagine he wants UI BB to get back to becoming a perennial Dance team and B1G title contender and an occasional foray deep in the tournament and has to openly question whether JG can achieve that level of success based on his first 4 1/2 years on the job.

The standard you articulate is what I take "We will win" means, at a minimum, as to BB.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

There is only one way for Josh Whitman to almost immediately walk back the goodwill he earned with the Lovie Smith hire, and that would be to allow John Groce to continue as coach without making the tournament. I think that's a fairly non-controversial statement, no?

 

[WiscIllini]

There is only one way for Josh Whitman to almost immediately walk back the goodwill he earned with the Lovie Smith hire, and that would be to allow John Groce to continue as coach without making the tournament. I think that's a fairly non-controversial statement, no?

Yep, it's hard to argue with this.

 

[IlliniInTexas]

Based on the donors I've talked to, strong respect for JG is too strong of a statement to describe JW's disposition toward him. I'm sure he respects him, but I don't think he has a lot of confidence in him as the long-term HC. One donor said JW has been actively talking in back channels to prospective coaches about their interest in taking the UI job, including Cuonzo Martin, since the week he was hired as AD. He knows he has a lot of donors' support if he decides to find a new coach. He'd probably prefer that JG get the team to the Dance and remain as coach in order to save $$, but I'm guessing he's working back channels because he knows there's a good chance he'll have to make a change either at the end of this season or next season.

I imagine he wants UI BB to get back to becoming a perennial Dance team and B1G title contender and an occasional foray deep in the tournament and has to openly question whether JG can achieve that level of success based on his first 4 1/2 years on the job.

We know that Whitman bleeds Orange and Blue. We know that Whitman loves football. Does Whitman love basketball? Does he even care that much about basketball? It's obvious that he wanted to get the right guy for football first, and made a great hire in Lovie. Revs from a good football program obviously outpace revs from basketball by a country mile, especially in the B1G. As long as Groce can make the tournament 3 every 4-5 years, even while underperforming historical "norms", does Whitman just keep punting on making a basketball coaching change and choose to only invest heavily in football?

 

[bigruss22]

We know that Whitman bleeds Orange and Blue. We know that Whitman loves football. Does Whitman love basketball? Does he even care that much about basketball? It's obvious that he wanted to get the right guy for football first, and made a great hire in Lovie. Revs from a good football program obviously outpace revs from basketball by a country mile, especially in the B1G. As long as Groce can make the tournament 3 every 4-5 years, even while underperforming historical "norms", does Whitman just keep punting on making a basketball coaching change and choose to only invest heavily in football?

Sigh, no, just no. He cares.

 

[Ransom Stoddard]

We know that Whitman bleeds Orange and Blue. We know that Whitman loves football. Does Whitman love basketball? Does he even care that much about basketball? It's obvious that he wanted to get the right guy for football first, and made a great hire in Lovie. Revs from a good football program obviously outpace revs from basketball by a country mile, especially in the B1G. As long as Groce can make the tournament 3 every 4-5 years, even while underperforming historical "norms", does Whitman just keep punting on making a basketball coaching change and choose to only invest heavily in football?

If you were responsible for increasing and maintaining revenue for 2 products, but only focused on one (while the other failed) how long do you think you'd keep your job?

Sigh, no, just no. He cares.

This

 

[Second and Chalmers]

There is only one way for Josh Whitman to almost immediately walk back the goodwill he earned with the Lovie Smith hire, and that would be to allow John Groce to continue as coach without making the tournament. I think that's a fairly non-controversial statement, no?

I had a response all ready to go, but then it got scooped.

Does Whitman love basketball? Does he even care that much about basketball?

This would be the new hobby horse. That's not EXACTLY walking back the good will, but it's a change.

 

[Poe's Law]

There is only one way for Josh Whitman to almost immediately walk back the goodwill he earned with the Lovie Smith hire, and that would be to allow John Groce to continue as coach without making the tournament. I think that's a fairly non-controversial statement, no?

I think he's still pretty far into the black on the goodwill even if he brings back Groce without a tournament appearance. Do I think he'd have to use some of that goodwill, absolutely. A lot of empty seats at SFC that need to be filled.

 

[RichBradIllini]

http://dailyillini.com/sports/2016/...ics-manages-to-stay-afloat-while-others-sink/

Article dated January of '16.

Nothing new or groundbreaking here but just a revenue perspective.

"Last year’s break even ended years of profit for the department since at least 2011.

The University’s Department of Intercollegiate Athletics earned $74,469,976 in revenue during the 2015 fiscal year, resulting for the second-straight year in a $0 net profit.

Football ended the year with a $12,482,707 profit and men’s basketball had a $9,409,479 profit. Without football and men’s basketball, men’s sports would have finished with a $4,350,892 deficit while women’s sports finished with a $9,122,463 deficit."

Gotta be some heavy pressure to get butts in the seats.

 

[IlliniInTexas]

If you were responsible for increasing and maintaining revenue for 2 products, but only focused on one (while the other failed) how long do you think you'd keep your job?



This

This isn't even close to what I said. If Groce misses the tournament this year, making it 4 in a row, or misses it 3 of every 5 years going forward, of course he gets fired and it's an easy decision.

We know that the 2 products are not equal by any measure. By revs alone, Football brings in 35-40mm/year, while basketball brings in 10-15. By that measure, if Whitman grows football revs by 20%, even while mismanaging basketball and letting that shrink by 20%, he's still done well, and everyone around the DIA is giving each other high fives. We're currently something like bottom 3 in football revs. Doesn't seem that hard to me being in the most populous state with one of the better academic reputations, that we can't grow that rev number to at least be middle of the pack.

I don't claim to have any insight about Whitman's thought process, but I am fairly certain that Whitman loves football more than basketball, and certainly reasonable to question how much more he loves football vs basketball.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I don't claim to have any insight about Whitman's thought process, but I am fairly certain that Whitman loves football more than basketball, and certainly reasonable to question how much more he loves football vs basketball.

There's no question that Whitman brings a level of personal history and investment and expertise to the football program that he can't to any other program just because of his life experiences. But even more than a football player he's a professional, and a professional is not going to let the women's swimming and diving program wither on the vine because he doesn't care, much less one of his two in-the-spotlight cash cows.

Whitman's "love" or lack thereof of basketball is not a factor in this decision. But I think it will be reasonable to question his judgment if he does something that isn't in the program's best interests.

 

[illinoisportsfan]

We know that Whitman bleeds Orange and Blue. We know that Whitman loves football. Does Whitman love basketball? Does he even care that much about basketball? It's obvious that he wanted to get the right guy for football first, and made a great hire in Lovie. Revs from a good football program obviously outpace revs from basketball by a country mile, especially in the B1G. As long as Groce can make the tournament 3 every 4-5 years, even while underperforming historical "norms", does Whitman just keep punting on making a basketball coaching change and choose to only invest heavily in football?

Most of the revenue for football at Illinois is generated through television contracts, not ticket sales.

Like Indiana, Illinois is primarily a basketball school. Basketball is the more popular of the two sports at the school and has the most fervent fan base. Just look at the activity of the Illinois basketball message boards vs. the football boards over the years.

If you are the AD at Alabama, you might be able to get away with ignoring the basketball program, but not at Illinois.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

There's no question that Whitman brings a level of personal history and investment and expertise to the football program that he can't to any other program just because of his life experiences. But even more than a football player he's a professional, and a professional is not going to let the women's swimming and diving program wither on the vine because he doesn't care, much less one of his two in-the-spotlight cash cows.

Whitman's "love" or lack thereof of basketball is not a factor in this decision. But I think it will be reasonable to question his judgment if he does something that isn't in the program's best interests.

All of this, plus the fact that none of these things exist in a vacuum. If Josh Whitman sees his charge as building the "brand" of Illinois athletics, there's no denying that a good chunk of said brand's capital is tied up in the program that competed for a national championship 12 () years ago and just overhauled its facilities.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

That's the opposite of what I'm doing. Those of us still here are the best fans in the damn world. No fanbase has suffered as much as we have in recent years, see my "misery index" thread for proof of that.

I'm making two points:

1. No one here knows what Josh Whitman is thinking.

2. The universal consensus here that Groce should and will get a contract extension by just barely sneaking through on the right side of the bubble is NOT a universal view among Illini fans writ large. Among the Illinois fans and alums I'm in contact with in real life, the consensus is closer to disbelief that Groce still has his job at this point.

I don't consider making the tournament an accomplishment. Groce needs to at least win a game there or finish with a minimum 11 B1G wins to make up for these previous 4 years, I would think . Someone had mentioned that Groce has helped lowered expectations so much where the fanbase is simply content with making the tournament and little more. In a bizarre way, he has helped himself by doing so poorly by lowering the bar for himself. I agree.

I, and my fairly large group of Illini fan friends, would agree with that 'universal consensus', and I certainly agree with SFC's post.

There is only one way for Josh Whitman to almost immediately walk back the goodwill he earned with the Lovie Smith hire, and that would be to allow John Groce to continue as coach without making the tournament. I think that's a fairly non-controversial statement, no?

Not even a little bit controversial.

IlliniInTexas ...

I think you're off-base to think just that because Whitman is a football guy (as he played it), that he'll let the other programs go. (1) He's way too smart to approach a revenue program like that, and (2) that's a quick way to get let go. Letting Groce survive with a single tourney every 4-5 years as you described it IS letting it fail. That's a terrible standard to hold in the Big Ten unless you're Northwestern, and our currently apathetic fanbase would get even more detached, or (possibly) worse for an AD, angry en masse.

 

[Obelix]

I don't consider making the tournament an accomplishment. Groce needs to at least win a game there or finish with a minimum 11 B1G wins to make up for these previous 4 years, I would think . Someone had mentioned that Groce has helped lowered expectations so much where the fanbase is simply content with making the tournament and little more. In a bizarre way, he has helped himself by doing so poorly by lowering the bar for himself. I agree.

Making the tournament or winning a game is not the issue but rather whether Groce is the right coach, the right fit at UI, the coach to return UI to prominence. I've lost confidence on Groce being that person a long time ago, that's why my own bar had been much higher than just making the tournament. Personally, I do not believe that Groce is the right coach but for different reasons, independent of whether we make the tournament or win a game in it.

But whether the AD makes a change is also a totally different issue than personal opinions. I never thought Weber was the right fit from the beginning and was probably one of the most vocal posters on Illini message boards (definitely the most vocal on IL) for his dismissal. However, it did not mean that I was confident that Guenther was going to fire him, actually very confident that he was not going to. As I said in my post, Whitman may or may not fire Groce if he makes the NIT, not saying that he won't, but I still have some doubts.

 

[MakesNoSense]

There are certain sorts of sports fans who will never want leadership change under any circumstances. When your program has been reduced to a smoking ruin that few people bother even paying attention to anymore, you're going to be disproportionately left with those sorts of people on websites like this.

It's really striking that no one is making the argument that a first round exit as an 11-seed isn't good enough for Groce to keep his job. That tells you what slice of the fan electorate is represented here. The empty seats at SFC are unanimous on that argument, I assure you.

But it would be good enough.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

But it would be good enough.

I think so. The extension piece makes it tricky, but it would be awfully tough to stare down a rebuild when we're finally back in the tournament.

 

[LurkLongandProsper]

But it would be good enough.

Maybe to some people, but I can't say that inspires a whole lot of confidence. Personally, less than an 8 seed does absolutely nothing for me. And saying an 11 seed is enough for the AD is the same as Obelix's argument that the NIT could be as well, before we go down that road. We're all guessing at JW's threshold, but for me personally, 11 seed or NIT are far too low for year 5 with this much experience.

 

[HeartofaChampion]

There is only one way for Josh Whitman to almost immediately walk back the goodwill he earned with the Lovie Smith hire, and that would be to allow John Groce to continue as coach without making the tournament. I think that's a fairly non-controversial statement, no?

+1000. I can name 10 donors from Sunday's game who would be irate and making their frustration known to JW if we miss the Dance this year and he retains JG.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

I think so. The extension piece makes it tricky, but it would be awfully tough to stare down a rebuild when we're finally back in the tournament.

Nothing tricky about the extension.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Nothing tricky about the extension.

It's the buyout that's tricky and Groce is not operating from a position of strength.