2018-2019 Predictions Thread

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#51
Carbondale, IL
I am looking closer at the last 10 games plus B1G Tournament time (Feb-Mar) as the barometer for what is to come. We absolutely have to be a better team during that stretch, and the improvements must be substantial, concrete, and obvious.
Exactly where I'm at. Even if the team plays better than expected right out of the gate, the schedule is so brutal that losses could still pile up quickly. But they can't let that turn into a spring spiral.
 
#52
I looked back at our predictions threads from the past two years a couple weeks ago, here's some (rough) data.

2016-2017:
Predicted wins (excluding post-season): 21.5
Predicted conference wins: 10.6
Actual record: 18-13 (8-10)
We only had about 21 predictions that year, but 2 people got the record correct AND the conference record correct (gillini and urbanaistheshiz).

2017-2018:
Predicted wins (excluding post-season): 19.5
Predicted conference wins: 8.9
Actual record: 14-17 (4-14)
46 predictions this year, we had 3 people predict 15-16, but two of them were after the EIU loss. Before the EIU loss, the lowest conference win prediction was 7-11.

Conclusions:
1. We might suck at this.
2. We might be getting worse at it.
3. In case anyone somehow forgot, last year was painful.
 
#53
Thu, Nov 08___Evansville W
Tue, Nov 13___Georgetown W
Mon, Nov 19___Gonzaga (Maui Invitational) L
Tue, Nov 20___Arizona or Iowa State (Maui Invitational) W
Wed, Nov 21___Auburn/Duke/SDSU/Xavier (Maui Invitational) L
Sun, Nov 25___Mississippi Valley State W
Tue, Nov 27___@Notre Dame L
Sun, Dec 02___@Nebraska L
Wed, Dec 05___Ohio State (Chicago, IL) W
Sat, Dec 08___UNLV W
Sat, Dec 15___East Tennessee State L
Sat, Dec 22___Missouri (St. Louis, MO) W
Sat, Dec 29___Florida Atlantic W
Thu, Jan 03___@Indiana L
Sun, Jan 06___@Northwestern W
Thu, Jan 10___Michigan W
Wed, Jan 16___Minnesota W
Sun, Jan 20___@Iowa W
Wed, Jan 23___Wisconsin W
Sat, Jan 26___Maryland (New York, NY) L
Wed, Jan 30___@Minnesota L
Sat, Feb 02___Nebraska W
Tue, Feb 05___Michigan State L
Sat, Feb 09___Rutgers W
Thu, Feb 14___@Ohio State L
Mon, Feb 18___@Wisconsin L
Sat, Feb 23___Penn State L
Wed, Feb 27___@Purdue L
Sun, Mar 03___Northwestern W
Thu, Mar 07___Indiana W
Sun, Mar 10___@Penn State L

17-15 (10-10) NIT
 
#55
Thu, Nov 08___Evansville W
Tue, Nov 13___Georgetown W
Mon, Nov 19___Gonzaga (Maui Invitational) L
Tue, Nov 20___Arizona or Iowa State (Maui Invitational) L
Wed, Nov 21___Auburn/Duke/SDSU/Xavier (Maui Invitational) L
Sun, Nov 25___Mississippi Valley State W
Tue, Nov 27___@Notre Dame L
Sun, Dec 02___@Nebraska L
Wed, Dec 05___Ohio State (Chicago, IL) L
Sat, Dec 08___UNLV W
Sat, Dec 15___East Tennessee State W
Sat, Dec 22___Missouri (St. Louis, MO) W
Sat, Dec 29___Florida Atlantic W
Thu, Jan 03___@Indiana W
Sun, Jan 06___@Northwestern W
Thu, Jan 10___Michigan L
Wed, Jan 16___Minnesota W
Sun, Jan 20___@Iowa L
Wed, Jan 23___Wisconsin L
Sat, Jan 26___Maryland (New York, NY) L
Wed, Jan 30___@Minnesota L
Sat, Feb 02___Nebraska W
Tue, Feb 05___Michigan State L
Sat, Feb 09___Rutgers W
Thu, Feb 14___@Ohio State L
Mon, Feb 18___@Wisconsin L
Sat, Feb 23___Penn State W
Wed, Feb 27___@Purdue L
Sun, Mar 03___Northwestern L
Thu, Mar 07___Indiana L
Sun, Mar 10___@Penn State L

13-18 (6-14), no postseason, though I'll toss in a 1-1 in the B1G conference tourney.

Frazier and Ayo have good years, one of them makes 2nd team All-Conference.
Williams gets starter minutes, slow progress forward.
Feliz only plays 5 min/game in conference.
Kane plays more minutes/game in conference than out of conference.
Griffen has a four game tear, I'm saying from East Tenn through Indiana.
AJ shoots 43% from deep, I wish we could find him more looks.
 
#56
West Coast
I looked back at our predictions threads from the past two years a couple weeks ago, here's some (rough) data.

2016-2017:
Predicted wins (excluding post-season): 21.5
Predicted conference wins: 10.6
Actual record: 18-13 (8-10)
We only had about 21 predictions that year, but 2 people got the record correct AND the conference record correct (gillini and urbanaistheshiz).

2017-2018:
Predicted wins (excluding post-season): 19.5
Predicted conference wins: 8.9
Actual record: 14-17 (4-14)
46 predictions this year, we had 3 people predict 15-16, but two of them were after the EIU loss. Before the EIU loss, the lowest conference win prediction was 7-11.

Conclusions:
1. We might suck at this.
2. We might be getting worse at it.
3. In case anyone somehow forgot, last year was painful.
That's good stuff...so when the season starts we just average up the 2018-2019 thread and subtract about 4.5 wins and that should be our actual record for the year! Seems about the right amount of orange colored bias.
 
Likes: Berg88
#58
Cary, IL
8-3 non-conf (1-2 in Maui, @ ND losses)
10-10 in conf
2-1 BTT
20-14, firmly on the bubble due to SOS
 
Likes: foby
#59
Glenview, IL
That's good stuff...so when the season starts we just average up the 2018-2019 thread and subtract about 4.5 wins and that should be our actual record for the year! Seems about the right amount of orange colored bias.
Good observation, but if we subtract 4.5 wins from the average prediction in this thread so far, we are in for a pretty miserable season (which I realize some are already expecting).
 
Likes: Berg88
#61
Well we know its not most of our past guards, as very few knew how to drive!
Ok you guys stop it.....opened this up while I was in a meeting and blew snot out my nose....made the excuse that I got choked on my coffee
 
#63
That's good stuff...so when the season starts we just average up the 2018-2019 thread and subtract about 4.5 wins and that should be our actual record for the year! Seems about the right amount of orange colored bias.
Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Candidly, I think the mood on the board currently is less optimistic than the past 2 years, which makes me think we'll be a little better. But people have over 2 more months to be making and modifying predictions, and who knows what the mood will be like then.
 
#64
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
It would be hard for me to stomach another sub-15 win season. It might happen. And if it does, it will suck.

Hoping for the best.
 
#65
I think if this team had last years schedule, we could be looking at 21+ wins this year. I think we will see a much improved team on the court even if it doesn’t translate in wins. We have talent on this roster, but it’s young and raw. A tough schedule doesn’t help short term, but 2019 could be the year we make some serious damage especially if Ayo doesnt go pro (don’t think he should, but that’s his goal to be a 1-and-done)
 
#66
W Thu, Nov 08___Evansville
W Tue, Nov 13___Georgetown
L Mon, Nov 19___Gonzaga (Maui Invitational)
L Tue, Nov 20___Arizona or Iowa State (Maui Invitational)
W Wed, Nov 21___Auburn/Duke/SDSU/Xavier (Maui Invitational)
W Sun, Nov 25___Mississippi Valley State
L Tue, Nov 27___@Notre Dame
L Sun, Dec 02___@Nebraska
W Wed, Dec 05___Ohio State (Chicago, IL)
W Sat, Dec 08___UNLV
W Sat, Dec 15___East Tennessee State
L Sat, Dec 22___Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
W Sat, Dec 29___Florida Atlantic
L Thu, Jan 03___@Indiana
W Sun, Jan 06___@Northwestern
L Thu, Jan 10___Michigan
W Wed, Jan 16___Minnesota
L Sun, Jan 20___@Iowa
W Wed, Jan 23___Wisconsin
L Sat, Jan 26___Maryland (New York, NY)
L Wed, Jan 30___@Minnesota
W Sat, Feb 02___Nebraska
L Tue, Feb 05___Michigan State
W Sat, Feb 09___Rutgers
L Thu, Feb 14___@Ohio State
L Mon, Feb 18___@Wisconsin
W Sat, Feb 23___Penn State
L Wed, Feb 27___@Purdue
W Sun, Mar 03___Northwestern
W Thu, Mar 07___Indiana
L Sun, Mar 10___@Penn State

16-15 (9-11 conference), plus 1-1 in conference tourney, NIT
 
#67
14 Wins, including an exciting come from behind win in the first round of the Big Ten tournament.
 
#68
I expect us to be one of the worst P5 teams. No front court. Freshmen bigs are generally awful. If Kipper gets in foul trouble, then defense will be either fouling or getting beat for layups. Probably the least experienced team in the country. No cohesion given so many newcomers, and late summer arrivals. Plus tough schedule.

Long season. Just looking for improvement as it progresses, increasing team chemistry. and how BU/Ayo handle the adversity.

Would love to be wrong.
Hate to read this, especially since it all makes so much sense. Freshman bigs? Usually foul machines and defensive gates. Check.
Late arrivals in a system that has been difficult to learn so far? Not ideal.
Still very young? Yup, that's a problem against a schedule like ours as well.

And this post doesn't even mention the risk that someone in the front line gets injured, where that is already our weakness.

I'll cosign this sadly and say that my best guess right now is 5-6 non-conference, 8 - 12 conference, 13 - 18 overall.
But improving at the end of the year and showing reasons for optimism about the future.

No orange font for this post
 
#69
Winged Warrior
The bottom line is that with our schedule this year, W-L record be damned, we will be a better team in March. Book it.
 
#70
Former Krush Cow
South Bend, IN
Thu, Nov 08___Evansville W
Tue, Nov 13___Georgetown L
Mon, Nov 19___Gonzaga (Maui Invitational) L
Tue, Nov 20___Arizona or Iowa State (Maui Invitational) L
Wed, Nov 21___Auburn/Duke/SDSU/Xavier (Maui Invitational) W
Sun, Nov 25___Mississippi Valley State W
Tue, Nov 27___@Notre Dame W
Sun, Dec 02___@Nebraska W
Wed, Dec 05___Ohio State (Chicago, IL) L
Sat, Dec 08___UNLV L
Sat, Dec 15___East Tennessee State W
Sat, Dec 22___Missouri (St. Louis, MO) L
Sat, Dec 29___Florida Atlantic W
Thu, Jan 03___@Indiana L
Sun, Jan 06___@Northwestern W
Thu, Jan 10___Michigan L
Wed, Jan 16___Minnesota W
Sun, Jan 20___@Iowa W
Wed, Jan 23___Wisconsin L
Sat, Jan 26___Maryland (New York, NY) L
Wed, Jan 30___@Minnesota L
Sat, Feb 02___Nebraska W
Tue, Feb 05___Michigan State L
Sat, Feb 09___Rutgers W
Thu, Feb 14___@Ohio State L
Mon, Feb 18___@Wisconsin L
Sat, Feb 23___Penn State W
Wed, Feb 27___@Purdue L
Sun, Mar 03___Northwestern W
Thu, Mar 07___Indiana W
Sun, Mar 10___@Penn State L


15-16 (9-11)
1-1 BTT
 
#71
Morrison, CO
I expect us to be one of the worst P5 teams. No front court. Freshmen bigs are generally awful. If Kipper gets in foul trouble, then defense will be either fouling or getting beat for layups. Probably the least experienced team in the country. No cohesion given so many newcomers, and late summer arrivals. Plus tough schedule.

Long season. Just looking for improvement as it progresses, increasing team chemistry. and how BU/Ayo handle the adversity.

Would love to be wrong.
This is pretty much where I'm at as well. However, two encouraging facts:

1. I'm usually overly pessimistic.
2. I completely stink at predicting the future.
 
#72
12-19 (6-14)
0-1 BTT

If Our bigs can play well right off I will chnage this prediction drastically. However, I don't expect that form our bigs until the end of next season.
 
#73
So, am I the most optimistic one on here for the upcoming season? I would rather be there than on the other end. BTW; Who is the most pessimistic procrastinator?
 
#74
The bottom line is that with our schedule this year, W-L record be damned, we will be a better team in March. Book it.
You're under the assumption this team will retain 2/3rds of it's players, rather than lose that amount. I don't want to make assumptions (he said before he makes assumptions), but I feel like BU is going to be consistently rotating about 3-4 non-graduating scholarships a year. Whether winning teams can be come from that is the biggest question.

I know the majority of teams have about 2 transfers a year (or so I've heard) and I know BU has been here for one season, but at the very least, his comments on player retention were curious, whether factually correct or not. If we have 6+ new scholarships filled/open this time next year, barring major, major talent, I will find it hard to believe we will be a much improved team. But then again, thats why I sit at a computer all day, and dont run the BB team.
 
#75
With this schedule 19 wins will get the team into the tourney. Sadly I only see 16 because of how tough the schedule is.

2019 will be a lot of fun though.
 
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