I find this terrifyingly likely.
2018-2019 Predictions Thread
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I find this terrifyingly likely.
Strap on your socks, cause you're about to get a hot take.
We won't miss Leron Black nearly as much as most fear. Maybe at all. Yes, he was a great player for us. Yes, he was amazingly efficient from 5-10 feet. BUT, he left things to be desired defensively and most importantly he was a black hole on offense. Once he got the ball, the offensive flow for that possession was over. Honestly, it probably needed to be that way last year, but we are going to have a lot more firepower this year 1-3 and a lot more offensive flow.
Floor: A lot better team than last year, still only 14 wins because of SOS
Ceiling: 20 wins. DANCE
We won't miss Leron Black nearly as much as most fear. Maybe at all. Yes, he was a great player for us. Yes, he was amazingly efficient from 5-10 feet. BUT, he left things to be desired defensively and most importantly he was a black hole on offense. Once he got the ball, the offensive flow for that possession was over. Honestly, it probably needed to be that way last year, but we are going to have a lot more firepower this year 1-3 and a lot more offensive flow.
Floor: A lot better team than last year, still only 14 wins because of SOS
Ceiling: 20 wins. DANCE
The NBA has said that any changes they make would start with current incoming high school freshman. They're gonna give it a lot of lead time.
But I've gotta admit, Ayo going pro with no chance of making the NBA just has an uncomfortable air of plausibility to it. I very much hope I'm wrong for Illinois' sake and Ayo's.
Wrong color kool-aid. Sorry, I love my Illini but cherry koolaid is just way better than orange.
He sure was. Give him the ball, and he'd put it through the hoop instead of passing it away
Ayo's 32 in RSCI, which would suggest he's a 50-50 NBA guy currently. I've not watched him in person, so I don't have a strong opinion on his chances. Watching video, he's elite in many ways. His height/length for a PG are great, and his nose around the basket is also excellent. Definitely needs body strength, and his shot doesn't impress me. He's gonna improve given how hard he works, and I could see him bringing good intangibles. If he has or develops a reliable outside shot that he can get off, he should be a match-up nightmare. Guys who move well without the ball will shine once Underwood gets good buy-in. He and Trent should be fun to watch together.
I looked back at the last 4 years of 30-35 ranked players (247 composite), just for our reference.
2017: 1 one-and-done, 5 have returned for sophomore years
2016: 1 1-year player, 1 2-year, 4 have returned for junior years
2015: 2 1-year players**, 1 2-year, 1 3-year, 2 have returned for 4th years (** one player was ruled ineligible partway through the season and was not going to play any more college basketball, went undrafted)
2014: 2 1-year players, 1 3-year player, 3 4-year players
2017: 1 one-and-done, 5 have returned for sophomore years
2016: 1 1-year player, 1 2-year, 4 have returned for junior years
2015: 2 1-year players**, 1 2-year, 1 3-year, 2 have returned for 4th years (** one player was ruled ineligible partway through the season and was not going to play any more college basketball, went undrafted)
2014: 2 1-year players, 1 3-year player, 3 4-year players
FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
That's pretty interesting. Thanks for doing the work
TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
Ayo is not a one-and-done player. I think you would struggle to find any talent evaluator in the country that thinks he is. That isn't to say that Ayo isn't good, but he doesn't fit the mold of a one-and-done. He's long, but not overly quick laterally. He's tall, but had the lowest vertical of any guard tested at his USA basketball trial this summer.
You can talk about RSCI all you want, it ain't happening.
You can talk about RSCI all you want, it ain't happening.
he’s stated in multiple interviews that his goal is to be a 1-and-done. If he has a good year, and shows improvement in his jump shot, he’ll have a chance. Scouts will be watching him all year, and will surely participate in the draft combine. If he does get drafted after next year, we will finally be able to say we got a 1-and-done to the league, which would be great pitch to Miller.
We all understand that we don't want Ayo to be one and done, right?
Yup, and it won't happen regardless. A 1-and done would truly be fantastic for the program, but we really want those 2-3 year players who are still perhaps NBA caliber but contribute for more than a single season.
Trae Young and Jalen Brunson were both ranked similarly to Ayo. I assume 100% are picking the Brunson career path given the choice.
Unless you're Duke or Kentucky and stack 2-3 different legit top 10 one-and-dones year after year (and that club is not accepting new members. Even Kansas and UNC aren't able to do that currently), the most valuable assets in college basketball are not the Ben Simmons' and Andrew Wiggins', they're the Jalen Brunsons and Devonte Graham's. A program is better off with the latter kind of guy than the former, period. That reality doesn't seem to have seeped into fan discourse around recruiting. It should.
Ayo has the potential to be that kind of guy, which is awesome.
To carry forward that logic, just by way of example, we would probably rather have Kofi Cockburn than Kahlil Whitney if given the choice.
(To the extent we buy Whitney as an elite surefire NBA lottery pick one-and-done, reasonable people might disagree on that)
(To the extent we buy Whitney as an elite surefire NBA lottery pick one-and-done, reasonable people might disagree on that)
True, but I'm not turning down a one-and-done anytime soon :thumb:
Would you trade Ayo for Zion Williamson?
Thu, Nov 08___Evansville W
Tue, Nov 13___Georgetown L
Mon, Nov 19___Gonzaga (Maui Invitational) L
Tue, Nov 20___Arizona or Iowa State (Maui Invitational) L
Wed, Nov 21___Auburn/Duke/SDSU/Xavier (Maui Invitational) W
Sun, Nov 25___Mississippi Valley State W
Tue, Nov 27___@Notre Dame L
Sun, Dec 02___@Nebraska W
Wed, Dec 05___Ohio State (Chicago, IL) L
Sat, Dec 08___UNLV L
Sat, Dec 15___East Tennessee State W
Sat, Dec 22___Missouri (St. Louis, MO) W
Sat, Dec 29___Florida Atlantic W
Thu, Jan 03___@Indiana L
Sun, Jan 06___@Northwestern W
Thu, Jan 10___Michigan L
Wed, Jan 16___Minnesota W
Sun, Jan 20___@Iowa L
Wed, Jan 23___Wisconsin L
Sat, Jan 26___Maryland (New York, NY) L
Wed, Jan 30___@Minnesota L
Sat, Feb 02___Nebraska W
Tue, Feb 05___Michigan State L
Sat, Feb 09___Rutgers W
Thu, Feb 14___@Ohio State L
Mon, Feb 18___@Wisconsin L
Sat, Feb 23___Penn State W
Wed, Feb 27___@Purdue L
Sun, Mar 03___Northwestern W
Thu, Mar 07___Indiana L
Sun, Mar 10___@Penn State W
+ BTT 1 win - 1 Loss
14 - 17
We just need to get better during the season and have 1 or 2 of the freshman bigs look promising for year 2 + actually return for year 2, we are too young and we will be fortunate to get 40 minutes of acceptable play at the 5 a game & expect Kipper to be locked in at the 4 all season long.
Tue, Nov 13___Georgetown L
Mon, Nov 19___Gonzaga (Maui Invitational) L
Tue, Nov 20___Arizona or Iowa State (Maui Invitational) L
Wed, Nov 21___Auburn/Duke/SDSU/Xavier (Maui Invitational) W
Sun, Nov 25___Mississippi Valley State W
Tue, Nov 27___@Notre Dame L
Sun, Dec 02___@Nebraska W
Wed, Dec 05___Ohio State (Chicago, IL) L
Sat, Dec 08___UNLV L
Sat, Dec 15___East Tennessee State W
Sat, Dec 22___Missouri (St. Louis, MO) W
Sat, Dec 29___Florida Atlantic W
Thu, Jan 03___@Indiana L
Sun, Jan 06___@Northwestern W
Thu, Jan 10___Michigan L
Wed, Jan 16___Minnesota W
Sun, Jan 20___@Iowa L
Wed, Jan 23___Wisconsin L
Sat, Jan 26___Maryland (New York, NY) L
Wed, Jan 30___@Minnesota L
Sat, Feb 02___Nebraska W
Tue, Feb 05___Michigan State L
Sat, Feb 09___Rutgers W
Thu, Feb 14___@Ohio State L
Mon, Feb 18___@Wisconsin L
Sat, Feb 23___Penn State W
Wed, Feb 27___@Purdue L
Sun, Mar 03___Northwestern W
Thu, Mar 07___Indiana L
Sun, Mar 10___@Penn State W
+ BTT 1 win - 1 Loss
14 - 17
We just need to get better during the season and have 1 or 2 of the freshman bigs look promising for year 2 + actually return for year 2, we are too young and we will be fortunate to get 40 minutes of acceptable play at the 5 a game & expect Kipper to be locked in at the 4 all season long.
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TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
Every top-50 kid wants to be one-and-done, that doesn't mean it's going to happen. He just doesn't have the physical tools right now, and I can't see a scenario where he develops them over the next 10 months.
Look, this is a good thing. I love Ayo's game and think he'll be a leader on this team for several years. If anything I think he's got a better shot at being a Jalen Brunson type—A four-year, extremely productive college player that NBA scouts just aren't drooling over. I want those guys, not one-and-done's.
A ten-win season is historically bad, and it's not going to happen unless Trent Frazier winds up in a cast at some point this year. Over the past ten seasons, there have been seven teams in the B1G that have failed to win 11 games. The highest Pomeroy rating for that group was 2013 PSU at 161.
Illinois was ranked 102 last season, and returns a team with most of the same weaknesses but an overall elevated talent and athleticism level. Leron Black was a nice player who would have started on most B1G teams, but he's not a guy whose departure would cause that kind of drop. Keita Bates-Diop might, but Leron was nowhere near that caliber of player.
They are not going to drop 50 spots in the rankings. The schedule is difficult, but I can't see it costing more than a couple of games.
Since this is a prediction thread, I'll say 15-16, but Pomeroy will have them around 75 or so.
Illinois was ranked 102 last season, and returns a team with most of the same weaknesses but an overall elevated talent and athleticism level. Leron Black was a nice player who would have started on most B1G teams, but he's not a guy whose departure would cause that kind of drop. Keita Bates-Diop might, but Leron was nowhere near that caliber of player.
They are not going to drop 50 spots in the rankings. The schedule is difficult, but I can't see it costing more than a couple of games.
Since this is a prediction thread, I'll say 15-16, but Pomeroy will have them around 75 or so.
sacraig
- The desert
That's a remarkably complicated question and probably worth a thread of its own.
I think the answer is pretty clear, especially given our current roster situation.
It's a bit like asking whether the White Sox should trade Michael Kopech for Bryce Harper. We just tend not to think of college basketball in those terms.
100% agree.
Really good teams seem to have both. Elite upperclassmen make a program look ripe and juicy to a one and done type player. Here's hoping we can be looking like that after 2 more seasons.
Oh, and since this is a predictions thread...
Evansville W
Georgetown L
Gonzaga (Maui Invitational) L
Arizona or Iowa State (Maui Invitational) L
Auburn/Duke/SDSU/Xavier (Maui Invitational) L
Mississippi Valley State W
@Notre Dame L
@Nebraska L
Ohio State (Chicago, IL) W
UNLV W
East Tennessee State W
Missouri (St. Louis, MO) W
Florida Atlantic W
@Indiana L
@Northwestern W
Michigan L
Minnesota W
@Iowa L
Wisconsin L
Maryland (New York, NY) L
@Minnesota W
Nebraska L
Michigan State L
Rutgers W
@Ohio State L
@Wisconsin L
Penn State W
@Purdue L
Northwestern W
Indiana L
@Penn State W
14-17(9-12)
I highlighted the games that I think will be season defining. Last year we lost these difficult but winnable games, but were close. I have us going 1-5 in these games, but if we can flip the 1-5 to 5-1, we dance at 18-13 (12-9).
sacraig
- The desert
Therein lies my point. I am not convinced it is so clear. Dosumnmu will almost certainly make a longer-term positive direct impact than someone like Williamson would. But, I do believe there is a legitimate debate to be had about whether the indirect effect of a one-and-done might be comparably beneficial, i.e. making the program "sexier" for other top recruits and adding an NBA draftee to the coach's resume.
Like I said, I don't think I am sold either way, but I don't think it's an abundantly-clear answer.
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