2018 St. Louis Cardinals

[champaignchris]

I'm irrationally high on Weaver, he's going to be a 4+ win pitcher this year and I refuse to acknowledge arguments to the contrary.

I’d be concerned about his innings. He’s never pitched more than 140 innings in a professional season.

In fact, that would be my concern for the whole starting pitching staff other than Martinez. You’re going to need 800-ish effective innings from starters other than Martinez. You’ve got a lot of guys either coming off of injuries, or are young and unseasoned, or both.

Seems to me like a cheap, reliable inning eating starter with a contract like Vargas just signed with the Mets (or even cheaper) would be a good way to go for some insurance for the Cards. Nolasco, Jimenez or Hellickson are all out there as possible pick ups. Unsexy names to be sure, but they might look a lot better in August after Wacha gets pulled in the fifth inning for the third start in a row, Reyes has an injury setback, and Flaherty and Weaver start getting worn down as their innings pitched get into the 140s and 150s.

 

[FollowTisdale]

I’d be concerned about his innings. He’s never pitched more than 140 innings in a professional season.

In fact, that would be my concern for the whole starting pitching staff other than Martinez. You’re going to need 800-ish effective innings from starters other than Martinez. You’ve got a lot of guys either coming off of injuries, or are young and unseasoned, or both.

Seems to me like a cheap, reliable inning eating starter with a contract like Vargas just signed with the Mets (or even cheaper) would be a good way to go for some insurance for the Cards. Nolasco, Jimenez or Hellickson are all out there as possible pick ups. Unsexy names to be sure, but they might look a lot better in August after Wacha gets pulled in the fifth inning for the third start in a row, Reyes has an injury setback, and Flaherty and Weaver start getting worn down as their innings pitched get into the 140s and 150s.

You can't really sign a FA for your 8th and 9th starting pitching options, though. Anyone half decent who doesn't want to be pigeon holed in the bullpen won't sign with the team (that's pretty much Bud Norris now, emergency 8th or 9th option).

The Cardinals have a very good/ deep top 7 with Martinez, Weaver, Wacha, Mikolas, Wainwright, Reyes, and Flaherty. They would have to sign somebody better than Mikolas (because they're going to give Wainwright every chance) to make it worthwhile, so that was Darvish or Arietta (Lynn & Cobb project relatively the same as Mikolas for more $$).

Plus, if it gets the point of need much more than 100 innings out of the 7th and 8th starter, the season's shot anyway.

 

[Ryllini]

I still cant quite wrap my head around the fact that we did nothing to fix the back half of the bullpen. How many games were lost in the 7th inning or later last year? We were only about 8 games behind the Cubs in for the division. Granted every team blows some games, but what we blew last year really takes a toll on a team. I will be shocked if someone like Holland isn’t on this team by the time camp is over, if not we will be searching at the deadline or sooner and hopefully that wont be too late. I’m fine with the largely un-proven rotation because there is some talent there, but we would be foolish not to give Jake or Cobb a call. Even if we have to offer an expensive 1 year pillow deal to let our young arms develop even more.

The offense should be improved, that is if Pham can do it being the every day guy from the jump. I really thought that Hosmer would’ve made this team immediately better, but what do you do with Carp? Don’t say third, because if you compare Jedd to other 3rd basemen around the league, we are doing just fine with what we have.

I think our outfield will be better defensively, I worry about our defense on the infield, and obviously behind the plate we are covered, even though Yadi is in the twighlight.

Right now, I think someone said it earlier, this team has the biggest +/- projected in the win loss column. I don’t believe we are better than Cubs, I think Brewers are probably better right now, but a team we will compete with for the wild card spot. There are 4 teams out West that will compete heavily for the playoffs, the Nats out east, and I think the Mets will be competitive out there as well. Bottom line, we didn’t do enough this year and in what I believe to be an improved national league, we could be in trouble.

 

[IlliniFaninHoosierLand]

Jason Motte reportedly set to sign a minor league deal, pending a physical.

 

[gibb52]

Jason Motte reportedly set to sign a minor league deal, pending a physical.

I guess Ryan Franklin wasn't available. How many pieces of low hanging fruit can we add in one offseason?

 

[bobbob]

? Fangraphs has the Cardinals at 88 wins and the Brewers at 78 wins.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

I personally think the 2018 Brewers will be a lot closer to the last half 2017 Brewers than the first half 2017 Brewers. There were a lot of players with unsupportable BABiPs in that first half. They were the 2nd lowest scoring offense in the Majors after the All Star Break. I think even with adding Yelich and Cain, they’re going to struggle to score runs.

Whoops, grabbed the wrong one.

I see the Brewers hanging around .500 all year.

 

[the national]

I will be super bummed if we dont make at least one more move before the season. I really like the idea of Jake Arrieta. Did you know he was born in Missouri?

 

[gibb52]

I will be super bummed if we dont make at least one more move before the season. I really like the idea of Jake Arrieta. Did you know he was born in Missouri?

Darvish got 6/126. Arrietta was rumored to have turned that down prior to the Cubbies signing Darvish. Don't see Arrietta as a fit.

 

[FollowTisdale]

Darvish got 6/126. Arrietta was rumored to have turned that down prior to the Cubbies signing Darvish. Don't see Arrietta as a fit.

Arietta lost a mile and a half last year across the board and his own team didn’t seem to interested in resigning him, and they had like 3 SP openings. He’s gonna crater hard, if not next year then definitely in the next 2.

 

[the national]

Arietta lost a mile and a half last year across the board and his own team didn’t seem to interested in resigning him, and they had like 3 SP openings. He’s gonna crater hard, if not next year then definitely in the next 2.

I generally agree he is on the down slide but tHe emotional pinch of him beating his former team in the Cubs is a good thing for us. With the minimal interest in him for the big paycheck, I think we can get him cheaper if we are patient. He does have Boras as an agent though, so we’ll see.

 

[South Farms]

I generally agree he is on the down slide but tHe emotional pinch of him beating his former team in the Cubs is a good thing for us. With the minimal interest in him for the big paycheck, I think we can get him cheaper if we are patient. He does have Boras as an agent though, so we’ll see.

He has trended downward since 2015 season but Jake is still a #1 pitcher for over half the league and a #2 pitcher for most of the rest.


The Cubs offered him the deal they gave Darvish and he declined. I highly doubt he and Boras did that in a vacuum of any other offers. Jake still has life in his arm. Six years worth? I don't know. But rumor is he is prepared to wait it out and then sign with the first team that loses their #1 or #2 to injury in the first 2 months of the season, and has needs to replace that guy.


Boras has a pretty good history of getting market value or more for his guys. I hope he signs with the AL, and definitely do not want him to sign with the Brewers nor Cards. Arrietta is in awesome physical shape, and it would not surprise me at all that he has another no hitter in his arm and two or three 15 win seasons left.

 

[KBLEE]

He has trended downward since 2015 season but Jake is still a #1 pitcher for over half the league and a #2 pitcher for most of the rest.

I'm not so sure that is the case. Here's an interesting piece from a fangraphs article.

Going off expected wOBA allowed, from Baseball Savant, 2015 Jake Arrieta ranked No. 2 among big-league starters. The following year, he ranked No. 30. This past year, he ranked No. 37. Arrieta remains effective, but cracks have developed. He’s thrown fewer strikes than he used to. He hasn’t been able to rely on his slider. And the stuff has been down. Between the last two seasons, Arrieta’s average fastball dropped two miles per hour. That’s the eighth-biggest drop, out of 171 starters. Unintentional velocity drops are seldom a good thing.

 

[FollowTisdale]

He has trended downward since 2015 season but Jake is still a #1 pitcher for over half the league and a #2 pitcher for most of the rest.


The Cubs offered him the deal they gave Darvish and he declined. I highly doubt he and Boras did that in a vacuum of any other offers. Jake still has life in his arm. Six years worth? I don't know. But rumor is he is prepared to wait it out and then sign with the first team that loses their #1 or #2 to injury in the first 2 months of the season, and has needs to replace that guy.


Boras has a pretty good history of getting market value or more for his guys. I hope he signs with the AL, and definitely do not want him to sign with the Brewers nor Cards. Arrietta is in awesome physical shape, and it would not surprise me at all that he has another no hitter in his arm and two or three 15 win seasons left.

I highly doubt he was offered Darvish's same deal, that sound like something Boras wants out there to pump up his market.

I'm sure he's in great physical shape, but all the muscles in the world can't save a shredded UCL. A big drop in MPH like he experienced last year is a HUGE red flag for an elbow problem. And 32-33 year olds don't really bounce back from Tommy John easily, especially a guy who relies a lot on his curve ball.

 

[hermie1985]

Mikolas struggles in first two outings. Mo betting big on a long shot and youth for our rotation scares me.

 

[Deleted member 3875]

Mikolas struggles in first two outings. Mo betting big on a long shot and youth for our rotation scares me.

There's a reason he was in Japan vs MLB. Moz was blind to this.

 

[FollowTisdale]

Mikolas has thrown 4 innings...

It's spring training, it doesn't mean anything.

 

[KBLEE]

Mikolas has thrown 4 innings...

It's spring training, it doesn't mean anything.

He had a negative WAR before going to Japan. Does that mean anything?

 

[FollowTisdale]

He had a negative WAR before going to Japan. Does that mean anything?

Definitely means something, not sure how much. He became a different pitcher in Japan, has definitely gotten better since the last time he was in the states.

I honestly have no idea what to expect from him. I trust the Cardinals scouting department, especially when it comes to pitching. Fangraphs has him pegged for 2 wins this year, that's a good 3rd or 4th starter. He had really good stats last year in a league that's equivalent to the MLB's AAA.

I do know, however, that 4 innings in March don't really tell me much about how he's going to do this season.

 

[hermie1985]

Definitely means something, not sure how much. He became a different pitcher in Japan, has definitely gotten better since the last time he was in the states.

I honestly have no idea what to expect from him. I trust the Cardinals scouting department, especially when it comes to pitching. Fangraphs has him pegged for 2 wins this year, that's a good 3rd or 4th starter. He had really good stats last year in a league that's equivalent to the MLB's AAA.

I do know, however, that 4 innings in March don't really tell me much about how he's going to do this season.

I agree that it doesn't tell me much but I was hoping it would tell us he's ready. Equal performance by our minor leaguers have them headed back down already.

I will agree that he's a proven AAA pitcher that has failed in previous attempt in the big leagues. Pardon me if I'm less than excited.

 

[TheGMan]

I will agree that he's a proven AAA pitcher that has failed in previous attempt in the big leagues.

Technically, this also describes Flaherty. Are you disappointed in him, too?

Mikolas put up very similar numbers to Ohtani in Japan. He might not work out, but he was very much worth the risk.

 

[champaignchris]

Technically, this also describes Flaherty. Are you disappointed in him, too?

Mikolas put up very similar numbers to Ohtani in Japan. He might not work out, but he was very much worth the risk.

Those are kind of weird comparisons considering Mikolas is 6 and 7 years older than Ohtani and Flaherty respectively. The former are prospects who aren’t necessarily expected to be finished products contributing at a high level right now.

While I agree it’s way too early make any judgments on Mikolas, as an unproven 29-year-old with no MLB track record, I doubt the Cards will be all that patient with him.

 

[hermie1985]

Technically, this also describes Flaherty. Are you disappointed in him, too?

Mikolas put up very similar numbers to Ohtani in Japan. He might not work out, but he was very much worth the risk.

I'm not writing off anyone. My argument is that our staff is a big gamble by Mo and not just the 5 slot. Almost everyone besides Carlos is a question mark.

Mo does have Reyes to fall back on as a starter and a closer. He's got to be great.

 

[the national]

I guess they are really high on Dejong. He did have a good season last year. He appears to have a high up-side. I guess we'll see how it pays off in the long run.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...l-dejong-6-year-26-million-contract-extension

 

[FollowTisdale]

I guess they are really high on Dejong. He did have a good season last year. He appears to have a high up-side. I guess we'll see how it pays off in the long run.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...l-dejong-6-year-26-million-contract-extension

Paul DeJong is a unicorn. The kid moved UP the defensive spectrum at every stop in the minors, from 3rd to 2nd to SS, and he actually defended pretty well.

His big year last year was BABIP fueled, but if he can increase his walk rate just a little he's a huge asset. Even if he doesn't, he's a league average hitter who can be a scratch defender at SS and probably plus defender at 3rd (range is his weakness). That's a good guy to have, floor of super sub with a big ceiling.

 

[FollowTisdale]

I agree that it doesn't tell me much but I was hoping it would tell us he's ready. Equal performance by our minor leaguers have them headed back down already.

I will agree that he's a proven AAA pitcher that has failed in previous attempt in the big leagues. Pardon me if I'm less than excited.

So Mikolas just threw 4 scoreless against the vaunted Astros, does this mean he’s locked in for a Cy Young award? Or... spring training doesn’t matter.