2019-2020 Predictions Thread

Two things: 1) I hope Vegas is right 2) There is something to be said for an opinion that carries financial risk, i.e. putting your money where your mouth is.
They may think only Illini fans would be this early and actually think the line is lower but try to lock a bunch of people in at the higher number.
 
Likes: BlueLeader
Two things: 1) I hope Vegas is right 2) There is something to be said for an opinion that carries financial risk, i.e. putting your money where your mouth is.
Actually a bookmaker's goal is to have the money split evenly on their line to ensure profit. So it's not just where they think the result will be, but more importantly where they think the spread of wagers will be placed.
 
Likes: Pop'sBlackDog
Actually a bookmaker's goal is to have the money split evenly on their line to ensure profit. So it's not just where they think the result will be, but more importantly where they think the spread of wagers will be placed.
Like you said their goal is to get an even number of bets on the over and the under to guarantee their profit. The bet line does NOT indicate where the guys in Vegas project our season to fall but rather it predicts where they think the betters will split.

With a team like Illinois I'm willing to bet that the vast majority of people making bets on our team this early are Illini diehard fans. I'd also bet that MOST of those betters are going to have pretty high expectations for Illinois going into this season. EVEN the betters that are not Illini fans are probably higher on Illinois due to the positive media spin. All of that leads to Vegas probably placing the over/under on wins at a number a few higher than where they really expect Illinois to finish the season. I expect they probably inflated it 2-3 wins to account for who they think are taking the bets and the general trend of how those betters probably feel about Illinois.
 
Likes: BlueLeader
Like you said their goal is to get an even number of bets on the over and the under to guarantee their profit. The bet line does NOT indicate where the guys in Vegas project our season to fall but rather it predicts where they think the betters will split.

With a team like Illinois I'm willing to bet that the vast majority of people making bets on our team this early are Illini diehard fans. I'd also bet that MOST of those betters are going to have pretty high expectations for Illinois going into this season. EVEN the betters that are not Illini fans are probably higher on Illinois due to the positive media spin. All of that leads to Vegas probably placing the over/under on wins at a number a few higher than where they really expect Illinois to finish the season. I expect they probably inflated it 2-3 wins to account for who they think are taking the bets and the general trend of how those betters probably feel about Illinois.
Yup. I never have done it, but I always felt if you took all the pre-season win totals for everyone in the league and aggregated them together - there would be many more 'wins' then available games to actually win on the season schedule for all the teams. It's just how people think.
 
21 - 10

With upside if we find some competent play at the 4, guard wise we should be slightly better, at big Kofi should give us 20 minutes more than we had last year, but still someone to step at the 4 or 5 that is more than a guard/wing
 
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Michigan
[sips kool-aid]

10-1 non-conf. 12-8 BIG. 1 win in BTT. 1 win NCAA. 24 wins total.
 
Rockford, IL
10-1 NC, 13-5 C, 2 wins in CT and 2 wins in NCAAT. 27 I L L WINS I N I. Gonna be fun again Gents!!!
 
Likes: FiveStar
21 - 10

With upside if we find some competent play at the 4, guard wise we should be slightly better, at big Kofi should give us 20 minutes more than we had last year, but still someone to step at the 4 or 5 that is more than a guard/wing
Had 8 mins of that step at the 4. Just need to add a couple of mins per game in the future.
 
Alright, I'm ready, baby! Rankings are current preseason rankings:

W vs. Nicholls
W at Grand Canyon
W at #21 Arizona
W vs. Hawaii
W vs. The Citadel
W vs. Hampton
W vs. Lindenwood
W vs. Miami (FL) [Big Ten/ACC Challenge]
L at #7 Maryland
W vs. Michigan
W vs. Old Dominion
W vs. Missouri (St. Louis, MO) [Braggin' Rights Game]
W vs. North Carolina A&T

- I wanted to pick us to lose at Arizona because it's so early and I didn't want to look like a homer ... but I have an odd feeling we take them down. :)
- If we escape Arizona with two wins, I honestly don't see us losing a non-conference game. We could always drop an absolute stinker (please, no!!), and I don't know what to expect from Miami; everyone knows the Missouri game will be tough and intense.
- I think we aren't quite prepared for Maryland on the road just yet and lose in ugly fashion. However, we turn around and beat a Michigan team that's had our number for far too long in convincing fashion at home.
- Order is restored and we beat Missouri with an incredibly intense effort in St. Louis ... on SEC Network. :unsure:

-- Enter the Big Ten slate with an 11-0 non-conference record and a 1-1 record in-conference, leaving us at 12-1 overall entering the new year --

L
at #1 Michigan State
L vs. #23 Purdue
W at Wisconsin
W vs. Rutgers
W vs. Northwestern
L at #23 Purdue
L at Michigan
W vs. Minnesota
W at Iowa
W vs. #7 Maryland
L vs. #1 Michigan State
L at Rutgers
W at Penn State
W vs. Nebraska
W at Northwestern
W vs. Indiana
L at #18 Ohio State
W vs. Iowa

- I think we start off losing at MSU and vs. Purdue, and everyone will freak out that we are 1-3 in the Big Ten before we get an impressive win in Madison ('bout time we won there again!).
- After dropping two rough road games to Purdue (I predict they'll oddly have our number ... hopefully we avoid them in Indy) and Michigan, we sort of "find ourselves" and get a nice road win at Iowa and a resume-building upset of Maryland at home.
- I think MSU is going to be clicking by the time we play them in Champaign, and unfortunately we will come up just short. We will also drop a disappointing game at Rutgers (Saturday home game for a team that I think is underrated and played us so tough last year), dropping us to 18-7 (7-7), and the Negative Nancies will have a field day on here.
- After losing to Rutgers, we will win with an inspired effort at PSU before taking care of Nebraska and Northwestern. We will then beat Indiana at home before going into Columbus at 22-7 (11-7) and a likely top 25 ranking. This game is a tossup at this point, but I went conservative and picked a loss, dropping us to 22-8 (11-8).
- I think we finish off the season with a revenge-inspired drubbing of Iowa, remembering how they embarrassed us in our backyard at the United Center last year.

-- That puts the final tally at 23-8 (12-8), a record I think we all would kill for. I think we win two in Indy and obtain somewhere between a 5- and a 7-seed, depending on what the field looks like. Sweet Sixteen, here we come. --

I am so excited for this season! Let's do this, boys!
 
We were 100-1, shop your bookie.
Word got out that Underwood made a slight tweak to his defense and the sharp money flocked to Illinois.

I got 40-1 on Maryland a while back. I'm not sure who would take Illinois at the same odds.
 
Prediction: 23-7, 14-6 conference.

I also predict that Grand Canyon will be a closer game than Arizona.
W vs. Nicholls
L at Grand Canyon
W at Arizona
W vs. Hawaii
W vs. The Citadel
W vs. Hampton
W vs. Lindenwood
W vs. Miami (FL) [Big Ten/ACC Challenge]
L at Maryland
W vs. Michigan
W vs. Old Dominion
W vs. Missouri (St. Louis, MO) [Braggin' Rights Game]
W vs. North Carolina A&T
L at Michigan State
L vs. Purdue
W at Wisconsin
W vs. Rutgers
W vs. Northwestern
L at Purdue
L at Michigan
W vs. Minnesota
W at Iowa
W vs. Maryland
W vs. Michigan State
W at Rutgers
W at Penn State
W vs. Nebraska
W at Northwestern
W vs. Indiana
L at Ohio State
W vs. Iowa

I'll pick individual games also. There's a bunch I could see going either way which is why I originally just posted my totals of 23-7 (14-6 conference). For example I think we actually matchup against MSU pretty well and I could see us taking both of those games but I've marked what I think our our most likely losses to match my overall predictions.
 
Well... doesn't look like anyone passed Jay the kool-aid... at least Miznoz didn't make the list. :noidea: