2019 NBA Draft

#26
Who was the better player?
Deron.

Who had the better freshman year?
Ayo.

Deron was regarded as the second best player on his high school team, He had huge leaps in both his sophmore and junior seasons for Illinois.
Deron made his biggest jump when he broke his jaw
 
#28
I quoted that post because it seemed the comparisons were being made to Deron and DRose knowing what those two eventually developed into, specifically with Deron. DRose was a different level of athlete from the beginning.

I was trying to compare them at the same point as freshman. If you believe Deron was significantly better in any aspects of his game as a freshman (I agree his court awareness and passing ability were better) then it's odd to me that anyone would disagree that if you put Ayo on the same path (and assume he improves similarly to Deron in three years) he will be a top 10 pick.
Deron averaged one more assist per game in his freshman year than Ayo is averaging currently. Ayo is averaging over twice the PPG than DWill.

Sorry if I was confusing, and all of this is of course subject to the rest of the draft class and the needs of NBA lottery teams.

I think Ayo could be a late first rounder this year if a team sees the need, if the makeup of the draft class dictates, and a team has a development plan for him. I just think he would leave a crap ton of money on the table.
I haven't seen anyone disagree about ayo being a possible lottery after his junior year so I'm not sure what your point is.
 
#31
Ayo's most marketable attribute to an NBA team is his projection as a perimeter defender.

Edit to include: I totally buy him as a legit first round prospect, and I'm an NBA junkie.
Go to a gleague game and watch ten Ayos play who are all dying to go to the NBA. He is not ready but may be in a year or two MAYBE. I like him but he has a long way to go. I hope he makes it but if he declares this year he will never see the court in an NBA game in 2019-20.
 
#32
Go to a gleague game and watch ten Ayos play who are all dying to go to the NBA. He is not ready but may be in a year or two MAYBE. I like him but he has a long way to go. I hope he makes it but if he declares this year he will never see the court in an NBA game in 2019-20.
This statement above is the truth. We all love our past players but college success is no way indicative of a long career in the NBA. How long did Dee and Luther stick it out, a couple years? And then on the opposite side you have guys who weren't great in college who develop into 10 year+ NBA players. If you'd have told me the Myers Leonard would have a better NBA career than James Augustine, I'd have thought you are crazy, but a lot of it is just getting yourself into the right situation.
 
Likes: Mike55
#33
Go to a gleague game
I don't think this is much of an indicator, honestly. Guys in the draft are high potential guys, key being potential. Gleague is a different beast. You have guys of very different ages, experience, and ceilings in those games. Ayo is a true freshman, and going to be viewed with a lot more projection in how GMs evaluate him (and rightly so).
 
Likes: Bailey
#35
Los Angeles
I don't think this is much of an indicator, honestly. Guys in the draft are high potential guys, key being potential. Gleague is a different beast. You have guys of very different ages, experience, and ceilings in those games. Ayo is a true freshman, and going to be viewed with a lot more projection in how GMs evaluate him (and rightly so).
100%.

Readiness to contribute immediately and willingness of an NBA team to spend a 1st round pick on him are completely different. Experts with real ties to NBA front offices aren't slotting him in as a first rounder without information. We can wring hands all day long about whether or not we think he's ready. All indications at this moment are that he has a real shot at hearing his name called round 1. Of course, a lot can change between now and draft day. Ayo is on NBA radars now whether we like it or not.
 
#37
Hoops Ticket Holder
Bloomington, IL
Ayo's most marketable attribute to an NBA team is his projection as a perimeter defender.

Edit to include: I totally buy him as a legit first round prospect, and I'm an NBA junkie.
Ayo's not big enough to be a good NBA defender yet.
 
#39
I don't think this is much of an indicator, honestly. Guys in the draft are high potential guys, key being potential. Gleague is a different beast. You have guys of very different ages, experience, and ceilings in those games. Ayo is a true freshman, and going to be viewed with a lot more projection in how GMs evaluate him (and rightly so).
NBA coaches dont have time for "projection", they need to win now. Mo Bamba already on the trading block is a good example. #6 pick in the draft & they dont have time to develop him.
 
#40
NBA coaches dont have time for "projection", they need to win now. Mo Bamba already on the trading block is a good example. #6 pick in the draft & they dont have time to develop him.
thought the bottom ticker on last nite's game said he was out with a stress fracture
 
#41
No one would have said Deron would be a lottery pick his freshman year. No one. Deron couldn't get to the rim and finish like Ayo is showing already.
Deron may have been a better passer his freshman year, but not by a huge stretch. Ayo has an ability to get to the rim and finish that will only get better next year, and will probably be unstoppable if he's around for his junior year.

If you are going to compare, you have to compare at the same juncture. If Ayo continues at this rate for three years, just as Deron did, he will be All B1G, a Wooden candidate, and a for sure lottery pick.
I am not comparing numbers. Dwill us much quicker and could get his own shot. There is a reason TF 95% of the time has the ball when our we isolate a player to close a half. He can out quick players and get a shot. Dwill could too. I wish Ayo the best and he can become a first round pick. A lottery pick is a stretch imo.
 
#42
I quoted that post because it seemed the comparisons were being made to Deron and DRose knowing what those two eventually developed into, specifically with Deron. DRose was a different level of athlete from the beginning.

I was trying to compare them at the same point as freshman. If you believe Deron was significantly better in any aspects of his game as a freshman (I agree his court awareness and passing ability were better) then it's odd to me that anyone would disagree that if you put Ayo on the same path (and assume he improves similarly to Deron in three years) he will be a top 10 pick.
Deron averaged one more assist per game in his freshman year than Ayo is averaging currently. Ayo is averaging over twice the PPG than DWill.

Sorry if I was confusing, and all of this is of course subject to the rest of the draft class and the needs of NBA lottery teams.

I think Ayo could be a late first rounder this year if a team sees the need, if the makeup of the draft class dictates, and a team has a development plan for him. I just think he would leave a crap ton of money on the table.
I think Ayo is a great college player and will be make an NBA roster one day. I wasnt comparing them as freshmen. I was saying lottery picks can create and convert shots one on one. Usually due to quickness and agility. I think Ayo is very fast and will be a pro. If you think he us as good potentially to be a lottery pick and succeed like those I mentioned then we forecast things differently. He us similar to Derek Haroer who was a lottery pick but Harp was more agile and quicker imo.
 
#43
NBA coaches dont have time for "projection", they need to win now. Mo Bamba already on the trading block is a good example. #6 pick in the draft & they dont have time to develop him.
Most NBA coaches don't make draft picks. And no one is arguing that Ayo is going to be drafted #6. Take a look at the bottom half of 1st round in least year's draft. Lonnie Walker one and done and not doing much; Kevin Huerter came out after sophomore season and is at best a rotational player this year; Jacob Evans came out a year early and has basically been in G League like Walker. Outside of a few players each year, it is all about projectability and potential.
 
#44
Most NBA coaches don't make draft picks. And no one is arguing that Ayo is going to be drafted #6. Take a look at the bottom half of 1st round in least year's draft. Lonnie Walker one and done and not doing much; Kevin Huerter came out after sophomore season and is at best a rotational player this year; Jacob Evans came out a year early and has basically been in G League like Walker. Outside of a few players each year, it is all about projectability and potential.
Idk about saying Kevin Huerter is a rotational player at best. He’s a starter in his rookie season averaging 10 PPG on nearly 40% shooting from 3. Pretty clearly the Hawks SG of the future and a pretty impactful player this season for them.
 
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#45
100%.

Readiness to contribute immediately and willingness of an NBA team to spend a 1st round pick on him are completely different. Experts with real ties to NBA front offices aren't slotting him in as a first rounder without information. We can wring hands all day long about whether or not we think he's ready. All indications at this moment are that he has a real shot at hearing his name called round 1. Of course, a lot can change between now and draft day. Ayo is on NBA radars now whether we like it or not.
Is the key just to get drafted or to actually be able to play? If it’s just to get drafted ask Jawun Evans, Peter Jok , shake Milton, diamond stone, Tyler Ulis, Kendrick Nunn, Trevon Bluitt how they like
thought the bottom ticker on last nite's game said he was out with a stress fracture
they were trying to trade him before he got hurt.
 
#46
Los Angeles
Is the key just to get drafted or to actually be able to play? If it’s just to get drafted ask Jawun Evans, Peter Jok , shake Milton, diamond stone, Tyler Ulis, Kendrick Nunn, Trevon Bluitt how they like
I think conventional wisdom is that if you're getting information you'd be selected in the first round, you'd best seize that opportunity.

I can't even entertain the argument a player would benefit from a developmental standpoint by staying in the college ranks (for free, no less), than if basketball were their job. That's hoping Ayo stays for the sake of the program, and I can spot a lot of that in this thread.
 
#47
Idk about saying Kevin Huerter is a rotational player at best. He’s a starter in his rookie season averaging 10 PPG on nearly 40% shooting from 3. Pretty clearly the Hawks SG of the future and a pretty impactful player this season for them.
I just looked at overall stats quickly and missed read them. You are correct. But I did mean rotational player at best this year (which again is still incorrect) not in his career. But my point still stands. The post that I replied to was saying coaches don't have time for "projection," and really that is pretty much what the NBA draft is all about.
 
#48
I think conventional wisdom is that if you're getting information you'd be selected in the first round, you'd best seize that opportunity.

I can't even entertain the argument a player would benefit from a developmental standpoint by staying in the college ranks (for free, no less), than if basketball were their job. That's hoping Ayo stays for the sake of the program, and I can spot a lot of that in this thread.
Jalen Brunson?
 
#49
I don't want to put words in Bailey's mouth, but I don't think he's saying players can't develop and mature while in college... its that the development while in the pros should be significantly better because of resources (both time and money). If Brunson leaves as a freshman, he doesn't have to worry about class and can focus 100% on basketball.

The counter points would be:
1) you have a small subset of coaches (Belien @ UM) that excel at player development and rival the best NBA staff
2) NBA teams are hindered by roster spots, which lowers their ability to foster player development. GM's draft on potential, but coaches don't have time to teach basic ball-handling. Some of them don't have time to bake the cake, they just need one for a party.
3) Some NBA teams have shown no ability to actually develop players. Call it organizational mismanagment.
4) Some freshman are not emotionally mature enough to handle the rigors of being a professional basketball player (the argument behind the one and done rule).

Ayo seems like a mature kid. If he gets a first round promise he should probably go, but I'll hope he stays.
 
#50
NBA coaches dont have time for "projection", they need to win now. Mo Bamba already on the trading block is a good example. #6 pick in the draft & they dont have time to develop him.
Which is why the front office makes the picks. If it were only "win now", that would be a terrible way to draft players, and lead a team to being a perennial cellar dweller. You get value in the draft, and usually it's only teams that are in position to make a deep run that are willing to trade away their future.

Mo Bamba being traded ≠ universal win now strategy