3/4 Games

#1
New York
Ohio State at Penn State, 5:00pm CT, BTN

Purdue at Michigan State, 7:00pm CT, BTN


A lot of bubble games-

Teams on right side of bubble ahead of us
Nevada over Colorado st. (10 seed on bracketmatrix)
MSU over Purdue (11 seed)
TCU over OK st. (9 seed)
Tennessee over LSU ( 9 seed)
Cincy/Tulsa- who knows, both slightly on right side of bubble (11/12 seeds), ideally both get knocked out
Oregon-Oregon st. ? (Oregon 10 seed but loss hurts our RPI- prob want Oregon to lose notwithstanding)
San Jose st over Boise st. (11). No way sjsu takes it, they are 2-21

Teams on wrong side of bubble - helps if they keep losing
George mason over GW (wrong side of bubble)
Miami over Pitt (both are wrong side of bubble, Miami helps our RPI. But we don't want Miami making it.)
USC over UCLA (right behind us on wrong side of bubble)
Miss st over vandy (wrong side)

teams comfortably in at the moment who could be on bubble if they start losing
Marquette over St. John's (7 seed)
UNLV over San Diego st. (7 seed)
PSU at OSU (7 seed)
Seton hall over providence (6 seed, far off bubble but a couple losses could put them on bubble)

also of interest, good matchup in ND at Louisville
 
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#4
New York
MSU is a 7 pt fav tonight against PU.
tOSU is a 13.5 pt fav against PSU.


For bubble purposes, I think we're rooting for MSU and PSU.

* Purdue is on bubble and a win over Michigan St would be huge for them. MSU probably needs to win one of its next three; our chances of both teams sliding off bubble are very very low, and there's a much better chance Purdue misses than MSU. If Purdue wins, pretty high chance both make tourney.

* tOSU is comfortably in at moment but with a loss to Penn St. still has a chance to slide back to the bubble. They play at Wisconsin next, so assuming that's a loss, and if they lose to PSU and then Wisconsin they may need to win their first game in the BTT to make the tourney. Meanwhile there is zero risk to us if Penn St. wins.


It's unlikely, but I would love to see Colorado St. go down at Nevada tonight.


Here's Palm's take on today's games:

Purdue at Michigan State, 8 p.m. (BTN): Big game for both teams, but especially the Boilermakers. Purdue takes a big step toward securing a bid with a win in East Lansing, Mich.

The Spartans have had some diffiulty defending their home floor this season, but they have to go to Indiana after this. A loss here sets them up for a potential three-game skid heading into the Big Ten tournament.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...y-bubble-purdue-oregon-look-for-big-road-wins
 
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#9
Aurora, IL
But do we really want to face a desperate Purdue team playing for their tournament lives on Saturday?

Yes. If we're going to be a tourney team we should probably beat other tourney teams playing in a tourney atmosphere. If we can't do that then I don't think we deserve to be a tourney team.
 
#10
Yes. If we're going to be a tourney team we should probably beat other tourney teams playing in a tourney atmosphere. If we can't do that then I don't think we deserve to be a tourney team.

More importantly, you'd rather have the lowest teams on the bubble losing games (e.g., PU, IU) rather than these teams winning games against some teams a little higher up (e.g. MSU) cluttering the bubble even further. The more bubble bursts we have moving forward, the better.
 
#12
Little Rock, Arkansas
So basically we want MSU over Purdue right? We want to be the team to firmly knock them off the bubble and any RPI boost they would get would be negated if we beat them Saturday. That's what I'm gathering.
 
#13
New York
So basically we want MSU over Purdue right? We want to be the team to firmly knock them off the bubble and any RPI boost they would get would be negated if we beat them Saturday. That's what I'm gathering.

obviously hard to say without exact information about how PU and MSU do in conf tourneys, how other bubble teams do, how we do, etc. but yes, as a general principle, right now we're rooting for bubble teams to go die, and since PU is one and MSU would be very much on right side of bubble even with a loss, we're rooting against PU tonight.
 
#14
Quad-Cities, IL
obviously hard to say without exact information about how PU and MSU do in conf tourneys, how other bubble teams do, how we do, etc. but yes, as a general principle, right now we're rooting for bubble teams to go die, and since PU is one and MSU would be very much on right side of bubble even with a loss, we're rooting against PU tonight.

Just let the Illini win out, take two in the B1G tournament and remove all doubt of being qualified for the Big Dance.
 
#15
So basically we want MSU over Purdue right? We want to be the team to firmly knock them off the bubble and any RPI boost they would get would be negated if we beat them Saturday. That's what I'm gathering.

Question is do we want to play an angry Purdue team on Saturday if we play them or does that stuff not even matter.
 
#16
St. Joseph, IL
Just let the Illini win out, take two in the B1G tournament and remove all doubt of being qualified for the Big Dance.

I think if they win out and get just 1 in the BTT we won't be sweating selection Sunday. Win 2 and we are talking about an 8 or 9 seed considering that would mean a win over Wisky or Maryland. I'd honestly rather have a 10/11 seed.
 
#17
Little Rock, Arkansas
Question is do we want to play an angry Purdue team on Saturday if we play them or does that stuff not even matter.

If we play a high stakes game against PU (they lose tonight and have to beat us to be in) it will be like playing a tourney game. If we win, we deserve to be in the tourney and if we don't we don't have what it takes to play a "lose and go home" type game.

So I'd rather PU be about to fall off the bubble and fight for their lives like we are. It will show which team deserves the at large bid.
 
#19
Someone tell me why MSU and OSU are so solidly in the tournament?
 
#20
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
Someone tell me why MSU and OSU are so solidly in the tournament?

I honestly can't, especially MSU. Their resume looks really, really similar to ours IMO. Only difference I can see that isn't cancelled out by something else is that they've played a pretty hard schedule, only 3 games against teams 201+ in the RPI.
 
#22
I honestly can't, especially MSU. Their resume looks really, really similar to ours IMO. Only difference I can see that isn't cancelled out by something else is that they've played a pretty hard schedule, only 3 games against teams 201+ in the RPI.

Right on MSU's schedule, but you gotta beat those teams.

0-5 vs. Top 25
2-6 vs. Top 50
6-8 vs. Top 100
2 +100 losses

2-2 vs. Top 25
3-6 vs. Top 50
5-10 vs. Top 100
1 +100 loss

1-2 vs. Top 25
1-5 vs. Top 50
7-8 vs. Top 100
0 +100 losses

The committee has a headache on their hands this year, honestly. Parity in the college game is something else, because 5-10 years ago none of these teams would probably make the tournament. Instead two of these teams are in nearly every bracket, safely.
 
#23
Right on MSU's schedule, but you gotta beat those teams.

0-5 vs. Top 25
2-6 vs. Top 50
6-8 vs. Top 100
2 +100 losses

2-2 vs. Top 25
3-6 vs. Top 50
5-10 vs. Top 100
1 +100 loss

1-2 vs. Top 25
1-5 vs. Top 50
7-8 vs. Top 100
0 +100 losses

The committee has a headache on their hands this year, honestly. Parity in the college game is something else, because 5-10 years ago none of these teams would probably make the tournament. Instead two of these teams are in nearly every bracket, safely.

I like option 3 first, then 2 (wonder who that is).
 
#25
Little Rock, Arkansas
Looks like PSU is choking big time. tOSU should pull this one out.