B1G Tournament Bracketology

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#1
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
Big Ten Tourney outlook - I posted the seed probabilities earlier, here are the opponent probabilities.

2015.2.6.3rdRdIllinois.png
First, the high seed in our pod (1-4 seed with the double-bye) is likely to be Wisconsin, which is a pretty easily-understood result of our large chance at an 8/9 seed.

2015.2.6.2ndRdIllinois.png
More interesting is who we might play in the second round*. While no single team (or even any two-team combo) is a favorite against the field, I was surprised to see how much more likely it is that we'd play UM. Again, slightly closer look reveals that this is just a product of KenPom giving Illinois and Michigan a most likely record of 9-9 and nobody else a most likely record of 8-10 or 10-8.

*This includes an assumption that the 11 and 12 seeds have a 60% chance of winning their first round games. That only factors in if we're a 5 or 6 seed but it's probably affecting the numbers for teams like Rutgers, NU, PSU.

Of course, as a fan, it's much more interesting to think about the fringe scenarios where we're a top seed with a double-bye :thumb:
 
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#2
Big Ten Tourney outlook - I posted the seed probabilities earlier, here are the opponent probabilities.

View attachment 2332
First, the high seed in our pod (1-4 seed with the double-bye) is likely to be Wisconsin, which is a pretty easily-understood result of our large chance at an 8/9 seed.

View attachment 2333
More interesting is who we might play in the second round*. While no single team (or even any two-team combo) is a favorite against the field, I was surprised to see how much more likely it is that we'd play UM. Again, slightly closer look reveals that this is just a product of KenPom giving Illinois and Michigan a most likely record of 9-9 and nobody else a most likely record of 8-10 or 10-8.

*This includes an assumption that the 11 and 12 seeds have a 60% chance of winning their first round games. That only factors in if we're a 5 or 6 seed but it's probably affecting the numbers for teams like Rutgers, NU, PSU.

Of course, as a fan, it's much more interesting to think about the fringe scenarios where we're a top seed with a double-bye :thumb:
These are awesome, thanks!

Just curious... what are you using for win probabilities on individual games? The KenPom win probabilities?
 
#3
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
These are awesome, thanks!

Just curious... what are you using for win probabilities on individual games? The KenPom win probabilities?
That's right, I'm just pulling down the win probabilities from KenPom's site. Glad you like them!
 
#4
New York
That's right, I'm just pulling down the win probabilities from KenPom's site. Glad you like them!

Can we get an update of expected seed after today's results?
 
#6
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
First things first: seed outlook after today's games.

Before today: 2015.2.6.SeedsIllinois.png

After today: 2015.2.7.end.SeedsIllinois.png

Good news is, we basically flip-flopped our chances of the double-bye (now ~10%) and the no-bye (now ~2%) scenarios.
 
#7
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
Opponent projections - we're still looking at a most likely Michigan/Wisconsin matchup, presumably in the 8/9 game.

First, the big picture. UW has a 92% shot at the top seed, and Rutgers has a 62% shot at the bottom seed. Nobody else has better than 50/50 odds of any seed. I'll try to do a bigger-scale breakdown of that after tomorrow's games.

2015.2.7.end.3rdRdIllinois.png
Above are our third round probabilities. Interestingly, of all the possible pairings of 1-4 team and 5-14 team, the two most likely are UM-UW (65%) followed by Illinois-UW(38%). As before, UW/Maryland/OSU are the likeliest high seed, but now we've taken over 4th most likely from MSU.

2015.2.7.end.2ndRdIllinois.png
The 2nd round matchup remains wide, wide open. Of note, we're now about half as likely to see either team from the state of Indiana, and about twice as likely to see the Nittany Lions. To see this, here is the differential percentage chance from yesterday to right now. It's really just confirmation that as we win, we boost our odds of seeing lower teams than upper ones in the first game.
2015.2.7.end.2ndRdIllinoisDiff.png

If someone's into data visualization, shoot me a PM. There's probably a nice way to show the full probabilities for all 14 teams using color/size but I don't have the time to figure it out, and I'm guessing Excel for Mac isn't the easiest way to do it.
 
#8
Admin
B1G Bracketology!

After Saturday's games, it would be #9 Illinois vs #8 Michigan if the B1G Tournament opened on the morning of February 8th-





B1G standings as of the morning of February 8th-
_____________________Conf______Overall______Remaining Games
1.__Wisconsin_________9-1______21-2__________@Neb___IL_____@PSU___Minn___@Mar__MSU____@Minn__@OSU
2.__Maryland__________7-3______19-4__________@Iowa__IU_____@PSU___Neb____Wisc__Mich___@Rut___@Neb
3.__Purdue____________7-4______15-9__________@Rut___Neb____@IU____Rut____@OSU__@MSU___IL
4.__Michigan State____6-4______15-8__________@NW____OSU____@Mich__@IL____Minn__@Wisc__PU_____@IU
____Ohio State________6-4______17-6__________@Rut___PSU____@MSU___@Mich__Neb___PU_____@PSU___Wisc
____Indiana___________6-4______16-7__________Mich___@Mar___Minn___PU_____@Rut__@NW____Iowa___MSU
7.__Iowa______________5-4______14-8__________Mar____Minn___@NW____Rut____@Neb__IL_____@PSU___@IU____NW
8.__Michigan__________6-5______13-10_________@IU____@IL____MSU____OSU____@Mar__@NW____Rut
____Illinois__________6-5______16-8__________Mich___@Wisc__MSU____@Iowa__NW____Neb____@PU
10._Nebraska__________5-6______13-10_________Wisc___@PU____@Mar___Iowa___@OSU__@IL____Mar
11._Minnesota_________4-7______15-9__________@Iowa__@IU____NW_____@Wisc__@MSU__Wisc___PSU
12._Penn State________3-8______15-9__________@OSU___Mar____Wisc___@NW____Iowa__OSU____@Minn
13._Rutgers___________2-9______10-14_________OSU____PU_____@Iowa__IU_____@PU___Mar____@Mich
14._Northwestern______1-9______10-13_________MSU____Iowa___@Minn__PSU____IU____@IL____Mich___@Iowa



BTT Tiebreaking Procedures
 
#10
NW Suburbs
Would love to get to that 6 or 7 seed. Wisconsin is the only team I fear. Getting to a 6 or 7 would likely require a win at Iowa or Purdue.
 
#11
Decatur, IL
Purdue is #3?? When did that happen? I must not have been paying attention. I firmly believe we are coming for that 3 seed.
 
#12
Man Purdue is the 3 seed, AND they have 2 games vs Rutgers still? Unbelievable...
 
#13
NW Suburbs
Iowa has a very favorable schedule and they appear to be clicking right now. I could see them finishing 3rd.
 
#14
Admin
After Sunday's games, it would be #8 Illinois vs #9 Michigan if the B1G Tournament opened on the morning of Monday, February 9th-





B1G standings as of the morning of February 9th-
_____________________Conf______Overall______Remaining Games
1.__Wisconsin_________9-1______21-2__________@Neb___IL_____@PSU___Minn___@Mar__MSU____@Minn__@OSU
2.__Purdue____________7-4______15-9__________@Rut___Neb____@IU____Rut____@OSU__@MSU___IL
____Ohio State________7-4______18-6__________PSU____@MSU___@Mich__Neb____PU____@PSU___Wisc
____Indiana___________7-4______17-7__________@Mar___Minn___PU_____@Rut___@NW___Iowa___MSU
____Maryland__________7-4______19-5__________IU_____@PSU___Neb____Wisc___Mich__@Rut___@Neb
6.__Michigan State____6-4______15-8__________@NW____OSU____@Mich__@IL____Minn__@Wisc__PU_____@IU
____Iowa______________6-4______15-8__________Minn___@NW____Rut____@Neb___IL____@PSU___@IU____NW
8.__Illinois__________6-5______16-8__________Mich___@Wisc__MSU____@Iowa__NW____Neb____@PU
9.__Michigan__________6-6______13-11_________@IL____MSU____OSU____@Mar___@NW___Rut
10._Nebraska__________5-6______13-10_________Wisc___@PU____@Mar___Iowa___@OSU__@IL____Mar
11._Minnesota_________4-7______15-9__________@Iowa__@IU____NW_____@Wisc__@MSU__Wisc___PSU
12._Penn State________3-8______15-9__________@OSU___Mar____Wisc___@NW____Iowa__OSU____@Minn
13._Rutgers___________2-10_____10-15_________PU_____@Iowa__IU_____@PU____Mar___@Mich
14._Northwestern______1-9______10-13_________MSU____Iowa___@Minn__PSU____IU____@IL____Mich___@Iowa



BTT Tiebreaking Procedures
 
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#15
Champaign
I'd like to be in some game OTHER than the 8-9 at 11am for once; feels like we've been stuck in that matchup for at least three or four years now... Would like to play a team other than the #1 overall seed in the second round if we can get there.
 
#16
I want the 6 spot if I cannot get in the top 4.

First, I want away from Wisconsin for as long as possible.
Second, I'd like to face a bad team that played the day before.
 
#17
Chicago
A lot of the teams below us have very difficult schedules the rest of the way. I have a hard time seeing how we end up worse than 8/9
 
#18
A lot of the teams below us have very difficult schedules the rest of the way. I have a hard time seeing how we end up worse than 8/9
Agreed but the teams above us all have easier schedules to my eye. It's hard to see us getting out of the 8/9 unless someone collapses that we don't currently expect.
 
#19
5 of our 7 remaining games are against teams within one game of us :pray:
 
#20
Admin
The next B1G game is MSU@NW Tuesday 6:00pm. If Northwestern wins, and they coulda/shoulda/woulda won at East Lansing, then Illinois is suddenly ahead of the Spartans and out of the 8/9 game. These next 4 weeks will be fun :eek:
 
#21
Back In Robinson!
This is why we need to win all of our home games. We. Need to be in that 7 slot at least.
 
#22
NW Suburbs
So NW beating Michigan State helps in BTT seeding but take away the possibility of Saturday being a "resume win". Tough to say what outcome benefits us most.
 
#23
Admin
So NW beating Michigan State helps in BTT seeding but take away the possibility of Saturday being a "resume win". Tough to say what outcome benefits us most.
:huh:

:eek:
 
#24
Might not be the correct thread, so feel free to move it Dan

Can someone explain to me how to calculate the scoring system for conference play? Ive seen people tweet Illinois is at +1 in the conference, and was wondering how that assumption was reached.
 
#25
Springfield
Might not be the correct thread, so feel free to move it Dan

Can someone explain to me how to calculate the scoring system for conference play? Ive seen people tweet Illinois is at +1 in the conference, and was wondering how that assumption was reached.
home wins are expected. if you win on the road... +1, if you lose at home, -1... in theory, if you win all your home games and lose on the road, you are at zero and your record is 9-9. Plus 1 means if we win home games out, we would end up 10-8
 
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