B1G Tournament Bracketology

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Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
As far as what happens with a win/loss:

With a win, as you said, both the 10 and 9 disappear (we'd be 9-9 with UM at 7-10 and no way to even tie us). The 7 is like a 17% chance in that scenario (upset of Purdue and the IU game is a toss-up). In that scenario, Nebraska would still have a 5% chance at the 10 seed. Their distribution actually doesn't change a ton since they're expected to lose most of the time.

With a loss, we'd be 85% for the 8 seed, 2% 9, and 13% 10. No chance at the 7, obviously. And Nebraska would no longer have the 13 seed in play, instead being about 31/61/8% for the 10/11/12 seeds respectively.
 
New York
For #2, I'll take Friday first - since we're only alive for the 7-10 seeds, and Maryland/UW are the only teams alive for the 1/2 seeds, we can only play UW or Maryland Friday. The sim shows 79% UW, 21% Maryland.

For Thursday, a few teams are still on the table. Obviously UM is the likeliest at 81%. Minnesota (13%) and Northwestern (3%) are next (7/10 with us at the 7), and then presumably in a 7/10 matchup if we fall to 10 there's IU (2%), Nebraska (.6%), MSU (.2%) and OSU (.04%).
Thanks!

So strong presumption our path is 8/9 Michigan then #1 Wisconsin (with smaller possibility #1 Maryland).

If we win out and Indiana loses to MSU, we're probably looking at Minny/NW and then #2 Maryland, with a possibility of #2 Wisconsin. And there are some other assorted unlikely possibilities still alive.

Maryland is playing really well now. Not sure how much I want to play them again. Might take the shine off our win against them if they kill us and it's clear that we beat them earlier in the year before they figured themselves out. That said, I'd 100% take winning out, facing Minny/NW on Thurs, and losing to Maryland on Friday.
 
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
Thanks!

So strong presumption our path is 8/9 Michigan then #1 Wisconsin (with smaller possibility #1 Maryland).

If we win out and Indiana loses to MSU, we're probably looking at Minny/NW and then #2 Maryland, with a possibility of #2 Wisconsin. And there are some other assorted unlikely possibilities still alive.

Maryland is playing really well now. Not sure how much I want to play them again. Might take the shine off our win against them if they kill us and it's clear that we beat them earlier in the year before they figured themselves out. That said, I'd 100% take winning out, facing Minny/NW on Thurs, and losing to Maryland on Friday.
I think I'd rather win out and have Michigan -> Wisconsin than Northwestern -> Maryland. I think we'd have no problem beating Northwestern again but if we didn't, that would be pretty bad unless they somehow snuck up to top-100 RPI. And as you said, a loss vs. Maryland could take some shine off our win. A loss vs. UM wouldn't hurt as much as a sub-100 loss, although really we just need to be 10-8 and win our Thursday game no matter who it is to feel close to safe on Sunday. And a loss to UW, not going to affect anything. I guess on the flip side, a win over UW or Maryland would give our resume a similar boost, although the UW win would certainly be very impressive to the committee.
 
Admin
Illinois as the 7 Seed Scenario
These 2 things have to happen on Saturday (otherwise it's the 8 seed)-
* Illinois beats Purdue
* MSU beats Indiana



After Wednesday's games, it remains #8 Illinois vs #9 Michigan if the B1G Tournament opened on the morning of Thursday, March 5th-





B1G standings as of the morning of March 5th-
_____________________Conf______Overall______Remaining Games
1.__Wisconsin________14-2______26-3__________@Minn__@OSU
2.__Maryland_________13-4______25-5__________@Neb
3.__Michigan State___11-6______20-10_________@IU
____Iowa_____________11-6______20-10_________NW
____Purdue___________11-6______19-11_________IL
____Ohio State_______11-6______22-8__________Wisc
7.__Indiana___________9-8______19-11_________MSU
____Illinois__________9-8______19-11_________@PU
9.__Michigan__________7-10_____14-15_________Rut
10._Minnesota_________6-10_____17-12_________Wisc___PSU
11._Northwestern______6-11_____15-15_________@Iowa
12._Nebraska__________5-12_____13-16_________Mar
13._Penn State________3-14_____15-15_________@Minn
14._Rutgers___________2-15_____10-20_________@Mich



BTT Tiebreaking Procedures
 
Honestly, to me the 7/8 seed isn't much of an issue at this point. Only reasons I prefer the 7 are A) higher seed, looks good for NCAA tournament to be ahead of Indiana B) I would rather play Maryland in the second round than Wisconsin. Wisconsin kind of owns us, and we beat Maryland earlier this year so the guys would have no fear and have some confidence. But regardless, I'm more concerned with the Purdue game. If they win there, and the first B1G game, we should be in. If we do that and are out, it's some BS. Lose at Purdue, gotta win two (and in that case I REALLY want the 7 seed).
 
Washington, DC
The 8 seed plays at noon eastern on Thursday and Friday. That is reason enough right there to want the 7.
 
Honestly, to me the 7/8 seed isn't much of an issue at this point.
Well that's interesting because you make a very good case why it is an issue.

Only reasons I prefer the 7 are A) higher seed, looks good for NCAA tournament to be ahead of Indiana B) I would rather play Maryland in the second round than Wisconsin. Wisconsin kind of owns us, and we beat Maryland earlier this year so the guys would have no fear and have some confidence.
Yeah, those are good reasons.

Lose at Purdue, gotta win two (and in that case I REALLY want the 7 seed).
If we lose to Purdue we are the 8 seed.
 
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
Down to 256 possible scenarios (but the least likely is still on the order of a 1-in-25,000 proposition). With 8 games left, things are segmented into groups of 2/4/2/4/2. Purdue's an especially weird case - they have no less than a 1 in 6 chance for any of 4 seeds (3 through 6), and their shot at a 5 is lower than either 4 or a 6. That's definitely tiebreakers at work - if you take the tiebreakers out and just let ties be broken at random, you can see their effect:

Purdue seed - With Tiebreakers - Without - relative % change due to tiebreakers
3. - 16.8 | 26.3 | -36%
4. - 34.0 | 27.2 | +25%
5. - 21.1 | 24.9 | -15%
6. - 28.1 | 21.6 | +30%

Here's the full table of probabilities:

2015.3.4.FullProbMatrix.png
 
New York
Down to 256 possible scenarios (but the least likely is still on the order of a 1-in-25,000 proposition). With 8 games left, things are segmented into groups of 2/4/2/4/2. Purdue's an especially weird case - they have no less than a 1 in 6 chance for any of 4 seeds (3 through 6), and their shot at a 5 is lower than either 4 or a 6. That's definitely tiebreakers at work - if you take the tiebreakers out and just let ties be broken at random, you can see their effect:

Purdue seed - With Tiebreakers - Without - relative % change due to tiebreakers
3. - 16.8 | 26.3 | -36%
4. - 34.0 | 27.2 | +25%
5. - 21.1 | 24.9 | -15%
6. - 28.1 | 21.6 | +30%

Here's the full table of probabilities:

View attachment 2374
So some quick math on Friday matchups if we win Thursday:

~77.8% Wisconsin:
76.4% chance we are an 8 seed and Wisconsin is a 1.
1.4% chance we are a 7 seed and Wisconsin is a 2.

~22.2% Maryland:
6.6% chance we are an 8 seed and Maryland is the 1.
15.6% chance we are 7 seed and Maryland is the 2.

Daniel: What odds are you using for our game and IU-MSU?
 
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
So some quick math on Friday matchups if we win Thursday:

~77.8% Wisconsin:
76.4% chance we are an 8 seed and Wisconsin is a 1.
1.4% chance we are a 7 seed and Wisconsin is a 2.

~22.2% Maryland:
6.6% chance we are an 8 seed and Maryland is the 1.
15.6% chance we are 7 seed and Maryland is the 2.

Daniel: What odds are you using for our game and IU-MSU?
For the latest chart, I was using 32% for us winning at Purdue and 47% for IU beating MSU (Pomeroy's odds for all games).
 
Little Rock, Arkansas
Will it be rocking? The pitchforks are out over there.
Didn't their AD give the vote of confidence to Crean already? I'm not complaining if IU fans don't show up or show up to boo...but if I were them I'd come and root for the team/players at the very least. It sucks when fans want a team to lose to get rid of a coach.

Now...let me take my logical hat off and say if the fans don't support their team or show up to boo, it couldn't happen to a better team! :D (Unless maybe Iowa)
 
Admin
Illinois as the 7 Seed Scenario
These 2 things have to happen on Saturday (otherwise it's the 8 seed)-
* Illinois beats Purdue
* MSU beats Indiana



After Thursday's game, it remains #8 Illinois vs #9 Michigan if the B1G Tournament opened on the morning of Friday, March 6th-





B1G standings as of the morning of March 6th-
_____________________Conf______Overall______Remaining Games
1.__Wisconsin________15-2______27-3__________@OSU
2.__Maryland_________13-4______25-5__________@Neb
3.__Michigan State___11-6______20-10_________@IU
____Iowa_____________11-6______20-10_________NW
____Purdue___________11-6______19-11_________IL
____Ohio State_______11-6______22-8__________Wisc
7.__Indiana___________9-8______19-11_________MSU
____Illinois__________9-8______19-11_________@PU
9.__Michigan__________7-10_____14-15_________Rut
10._Northwestern______6-11_____15-15_________@Iowa
____Minnesota_________6-11_____17-13_________PSU
12._Nebraska__________5-12_____13-16_________Mar
13._Penn State________3-14_____15-15_________@Minn
14._Rutgers___________2-15_____10-20_________@Mich



BTT Tiebreaking Procedures
 
Will it be rocking? The pitchforks are out over there.
It's always rocking in B-ton. AH is the loudest arena in the B1G. Had the pleasure of going to AH a few years ago. Fans are practically on top of the court, and the low ceiling just reverberates the noise in there. Crazy atmosphere.
 
It's always rocking in B-ton. AH is the loudest arena in the B1G. Had the pleasure of going to AH a few years ago. Fans are practically on top of the court, and the low ceiling just reverberates the noise in there. Crazy atmosphere.
I think it will start loud but if MSU starts to get up by a handful I can see those cheers turn to boos real quick.
 
I'll be surprised if Indiana fans at the game are anything other than supportive. They are very dedicated fans.
Bulletin board time, something else entirely.
 
I think it will start loud but if MSU starts to get up by a handful I can see those cheers turn to boos real quick.
IU fans are arrogant and annoying but also loyal to a fault. They'd never boo Crean knowing that their boos could be misconstrued by the players as booing them and the team.
 
Champaign, IL
IU fans are arrogant and annoying but also loyal to a fault. They'd never boo Crean knowing that their boos could be misconstrued by the players as booing them and the team.
They definitely booed them at the end of that Iowa game.. along with games last year against Northwestern, PSU, and Nebraska. The place will be packed Saturday but if MSU handles them like Iowa did then it will be the ugliest you'll see Assembly hall since Sampson.
 
They definitely booed them at the end of that Iowa game.. along with games last year against Northwestern, PSU, and Nebraska. The place will be packed Saturday but if MSU handles them like Iowa did then it will be the ugliest you'll see Assembly hall since Sampson.
IU matches up a lot better with MSU than Iowa. Iowa's length bothered them.
 
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Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
It's always rocking in B-ton. AH is the loudest arena in the B1G. Had the pleasure of going to AH a few years ago. Fans are practically on top of the court, and the low ceiling just reverberates the noise in there. Crazy atmosphere.
Aside from being loud, from the top 2/3 of the upper level it's by far the worst B1G hoops arena I've been in.
 
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