B1G Tournament Bracketology

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Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
You guys know the drill. There are 128 scenarios left. UW and Maryland have the 1 and 2 spots locked up.

Michigan has the 9 as close to locked as you can get, but looks like Northwestern could still steal it. They actually win a decent number of tiebreaker scenarios, Pomeroy just thinks it's really unlikely that both a NU win (12%) and Michigan loss (14%) happen. Minnesota can't ever win a tiebreaker with Michigan or Northwestern (0-2 against those teams), otherwise they'd have some chance at the 9 as well.

2015.3.5.FullProbMatrix.png
 
I was hoping to get the 7 seed, but I think we would prefer the 8 seed v. MI over the 7 seed v. Northwestern. Getting the 7 seed v. MN, who is 78th in the RPI, would probably be my first choice, although I think MN will be a tougher game thatn MI. MI is 81st in RPI, Northwestern is 110th. We moved up to 58th last night.
 
I was hoping to get the 7 seed, but I think we would prefer the 8 seed v. MI over the 7 seed v. Northwestern. Getting the 7 seed v. MN, who is 78th in the RPI, would probably be my first choice, although I think MN will be a tougher game thatn MI. MI is 81st in RPI, Northwestern is 110th. We moved up to 58th last night.
I like the 7 seed vs. a 10 NW, following with a win over the Terps, then a game to the finals and a win vs. the Badgers.
 
Orange Krush '04 & '05
One positive about the 7th seed is that it is higher than the 8th seed. Simple as that. I think the committee would take things like that into consideration when looking at us vs. IU. I would much rather be the 7th B1G than 8th.
 
New York
So our scenarios have become pretty clear:

82% chance we play Michigan-Wisconsin
1% chance we play NW-Wisconsin

12% chance we play Minny-Maryland
4% chance we play NW-Maryland
1% chance we play Nebraska-Maryland


In order for us to play Maryland, we have to beat PU and MSU has to beat IU Saturday. We'll know the IU result before tipoff. If IU loses, then our game will determine the seeding. If IU wins, the PU game will have no effect on our seeding. If IU loses earlier in the day, the scenarios are:

1. we win and we're in good shape for tourney, but we likely have to beat Minny/NW/Nebraska to make the tourney. A loss to Minny would be the most harmless, so maybe that's the matchup we would want to avoid risk. I also think we beat them now on neutral court. We almost certainly wouldn't need to beat Maryland.

2. we lose and we have to go through Michigan then Wisconsin.

I don't see NW winning at Iowa, so the Minnesota-PSU result will probably be the single most important factor in determining the 10 spot.
 
Aside from being loud, from the top 2/3 of the upper level it's by far the worst B1G hoops arena I've been in.
True, but I've never been in a louder arena than AH. I only wish our SFC fans were as passionate as theirs, plus the low ceiling amplifies the noise exponentially.
 
Does anyone know if Wednesday night's session is general admission? I have all-session through Illinois, but when I checked stub hub for a friend who is coming, all the Wednesday tickets are GA. I wondered if that means basically first come first serve to anyone. Not that attendance will be an issue on loser night. I am sure they want the lower bowl looking as full as possible.......
 
Does anyone know if Wednesday night's session is general admission? I have all-session through Illinois, but when I checked stub hub for a friend who is coming, all the Wednesday tickets are GA. I wondered if that means basically first come first serve to anyone. Not that attendance will be an issue on loser night. I am sure they want the lower bowl looking as full as possible.......
Session 1 is GA Tickets.
 
Champaign
So if MSU loses to Indiana, there's no way we get the 7th seed regardless of what we do against Purdue, right?

EDIT: Yep, looks that way thanks to that chart you posted, Daniel. :thumb:
 
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
So if MSU loses to Indiana, there's no way we get the 7th seed regardless of what we do against Purdue, right?
Right. We could at best tie IU at 10-8 but we'd always lose the tiebreaker since we were 0-1 against them.
 
Champaign
Right. We could at best tie IU at 10-8 but we'd always lose the tiebreaker since we were 0-1 against them.
And conversely, if MSU does beat IU but we lose to Purdue there's no way we can get the 7th seed, regardless of whatever messy tiebreakers occur.
 
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
And conversely, if MSU does beat IU but we lose to Purdue there's no way we can get the 7th seed, regardless of whatever messy tiebreakers occur.
Right. And it's not that messy in this case - no other team can tie with us and IU at either 9-9 or 10-8. So IU wins either tie.
 
On the flip side of the coin, it looks like the 10-seed is comparatively "up for grabs." It should be interesting to see how the bottom half of the conference looks after today.
 
Champaign
So after the first two B1G games of the day (Iowa win over NW, MSU win over Indiana) here's what that chart looks like:



It's this simple now: beat Purdue and you're the 7th seed, lose and you're the 8th against Michigan in the 8-9 game.
 
New York
One thing I just noticed- Iowa will be rooting for us to beat PU. If we win, they get the double bye. If we lose, they need OSU to beat Wisconsin tomorrow for them to get the double bye- otherwise Purdue gets it.
 
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