##### Orange Krush Class of 2013

- Stanford, CA

By request, here's a thread to collect statistical forecasts for the rest of the season. I have my laptop running these nightly but haven't automated the process of making the charts to share yet, so for now I'll try to get to updates once or twice a week!

All of the models I run use KenPom's rankings as their basis. I run the remainder of the season 100k times with three scenarios — normal, no tiebreakers (so any ties are resolved by a 50-50 coin flip), and equal strength (where every game remaining is a tossup).

As of the morning of Feb. 5, here's the forecast for B1G Tournament seeds (normal case). Teams are ordered by mean expected finish, which is why IL is above PSU, for example. Usually that choice doesn't change things much at all, but this is a very messy season.

One other note — in these charts, "0%" refers to outcomes that happened less than 0.5% of times, but at least once, while a blank refers to outcomes that happened zero times in 100k simulations.

All of the models I run use KenPom's rankings as their basis. I run the remainder of the season 100k times with three scenarios — normal, no tiebreakers (so any ties are resolved by a 50-50 coin flip), and equal strength (where every game remaining is a tossup).

As of the morning of Feb. 5, here's the forecast for B1G Tournament seeds (normal case). Teams are ordered by mean expected finish, which is why IL is above PSU, for example. Usually that choice doesn't change things much at all, but this is a very messy season.

One other note — in these charts, "0%" refers to outcomes that happened less than 0.5% of times, but at least once, while a blank refers to outcomes that happened zero times in 100k simulations.

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