B1G Tournament Forecasting Thread

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#52
Bartovik says odds to win BIG outright is 0.9%, share is 7.4% and top 4 is 72.6%
 
       
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#54
Springfiled, IL.
We could be 1 if we win out and Maryland lost all 5 games.
 
       
#56
We could be 1 if we win out and Maryland lost all 5 games.
Almost correct, but the bracket has PSU favored to finish 5-0, including a win at the Breslin Center. They finish ahead of us if we both win all of our remaining games.
 
       
#57
New York
To finish 1, we need to gain 4 games on Maryland. In other words, we win out and Maryland goes 1-4, or we go 4-1 and Maryland loses out.

Maryland plays @OSU, @minnesota, MSU, @rutgers, and Michigan. 2-3 isn’t crazy. They’d really have to slide to go 1-4.

Torvik’s 0.9% estimate of us finishing number 1 over Maryland seems high.
 
       
#58
Springfiled, IL.
I had Penn St lose to Iowa @ Iowa.
 
       
#59
Uncle Jed and Granny were real proud of me when I gradgeeated fifth grade, but me and Ellie still don’t understand all this.
 
       
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#60
Our remaining schedule will skew us toward a 3/4 finish. However OSU/Iowa I'm not as sure about.
 
       
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#61
Our remaining schedule will skew us toward a 3/4 finish. However OSU/Iowa I'm not as sure about.
OSU seems to be returning to their early season form, so I think that one is a loss. The prospect that really concerns me is beating Iowa on Saturday, and then having to play them again on Friday in the 4-5 game. Not sure we can beat them twice in a week. Hopefully, our PSU win reduces the chance of meeting them on Friday in the BTT.
 
       
#62
New York
OSU seems to be returning to their early season form, so I think that one is a loss. The prospect that really concerns me is beating Iowa on Saturday, and then having to play them again on Friday in the 4-5 game. Not sure we can beat them twice in a week. Hopefully, our PSU win reduces the chance of meeting them on Friday in the BTT.
I do love the idea of beating OSU at their place in March. After 2005 that will never get old.
 
       
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#63
OSU seems to be returning to their early season form, so I think that one is a loss. The prospect that really concerns me is beating Iowa on Saturday, and then having to play them again on Friday in the 4-5 game. Not sure we can beat them twice in a week. Hopefully, our PSU win reduces the chance of meeting them on Friday in the BTT.
Ugh. The notnothing.net default bracket says we won't meet them on Friday in the 4-5 bracket as Daniel's table from last week suggested was fairly likely; we could meet them on Friday in the 3-6 bracket instead!
 
       
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#64
South Carolina
Any frequent Big 10 Tourney attendees out there who can advise best way to purchase tickets for Thursday thru Sunday in Indy? I'd like to have access to every game and then attend when my schedule permits. I'm assuming there is nothing better than Stub Hub. Lower bowl/section preferred.

Thanks!
 
       
#66
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
The latest:

1582158988013.png


Quite a bit better than with random outcomes, I assume due to our relatively easy schedule vs. other teams around us:

1582159028101.png


Perceived Clarity is up to 57%, True Clarity at 53%. In other words, there's still a LOT up in the air!
 
       
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#67
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
The simulation also spits out some matchup info, but I haven't found a good way to display it yet. That said, given the conversation here it seems to be of interest.

We have around a 50% chance of the double-bye as of this morning. So far, I haven't added the ability to count who our likely matchups would be in those cases because it hasn't been relevant to us since I started this (that says a lot about recent Illinois hoops history, doesn't it?).

What I do have are the remaining likelihoods (as percentages) of who we'll play first if we're not a double-bye. I'm using a coin flip for 11-14 and 12-13 games, so Nebraska and Northwestern are probably over-represented here:

1582159918174.png


And here's who we'd be most likely to meet if we win that first game — it's basically a toss-up between the other top teams.

1582160040574.png
 
       
#68
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
I stand corrected — I actually do use the team ratings in figuring out who we'd likely play from the 11/14 and 12/13 matchups, so the first chart in my last post should be fairly representative. Neb/NU are probably so high because they're guaranteed 13/14 seeds, while other teams may move up to the 10/9/8/7 lines and likely miss us.
 
       
#69
South Carolina
I've been maintaining a chart to track team-by-team results this Big 10 season. I think it's at least 98% accurate. (Indiana is playing at Minnesota as I type. ) If the top 12 teams win all home games and lose all road games (with the single exception of also beating both NW and NEB on the road), we finish in a 2-way tie with Penn State for 2nd place at 13-7, one game behind MD.
 
       
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#70
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Rochester, MN
IU basically trades places with Minnesota after their road win last night, while Rutgers and Michigan also fall/rise about 1 seed line each.

1582206633100.png
 
       
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#71
New York
IU basically trades places with Minnesota after their road win last night, while Rutgers and Michigan also fall/rise about 1 seed line each.

View attachment 5715

Picture is pretty clear at 1 and 13-14. In between is still a mess. Looks like we are most likely competing with four other teams for three seeds 2-4. It could totally come down to our home game against Iowa to finish the season.

in case anyone curious, tie break procedures are here - https://bigten.org/news/2019/9/12/2020-mens-basketball-tournament-tiebreaker-procedures.aspx

For a two team tie, first tie break is head to head, second is record against the top team in the league and then if still a tie, the same comparison continuing down the standings.

In the case of a multi team tie, it’s cumulative head to head records within the group, then if still tied compared records against top team in standings etc. as above.

not good for us to end up in a group with MSU because they beat us twice. And beating Iowa to go 1-1 obviously important for tie break reasons if we end up in a group with them
 
       
#72
New York
I've been maintaining a chart to track team-by-team results this Big 10 season. I think it's at least 98% accurate. (Indiana is playing at Minnesota as I type. ) If the top 12 teams win all home games and lose all road games (with the single exception of also beating both NW and NEB on the road), we finish in a 2-way tie with Penn State for 2nd place at 13-7, one game behind MD.
Would be a great result. In a two team tie with Penn State, we’d win the tie break because we beat them.
 
       
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#73
All this brings back bad memories of cold sweats I used to have from my Statistics 171-172 class many years ago.
 
       
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#74
Would be a great result. In a two team tie with Penn State, we’d win the tie break because we beat them.
Or a three team tie with PSU and Wisconsin. We beat them both, so we could get a 2 seed from that one.
 
       
#75
The latest:

View attachment 5710

Quite a bit better than with random outcomes, I assume due to our relatively easy schedule vs. other teams around us:
the tiebreakers seem to help us here ...head to head we lose to MD (but doesn't really matter at this point), lose to MSU, but are ahead of Wisc, PSU, Rutgers, & MI; trail IA (with a home chance to tie)...if we end up in multiple team tie scenarios which seem likely, we should be rooting for Rutgers, Mich, PSU, & Wisc to be there with us
 
       
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