B1G Tournament Forecasting Thread

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Why are we listed as the third place team here? I thought we were in bad shape on tie-breakers....
We're 2-0 against fellow 10-6 records (PSU and Wisc), therefore the tie breaker is ours.

Essentially, we want to avoid being tied with MSU or MD and perhaps Rutgers and Iowa (1-1 or 0-2).
 
Likes: illinifan4249
Anyway, I just played with the simulator again ... if we can finish with only one more loss (an impressive outcome but hardly impossible), we seem in pretty good shape for that 2-seed in the BTT. I toyed with Maryland possibly dropping one at Rutgers and things like that, and it only seems to change who we play (winner of the 7/10 game) in our first game. SO much can happen in the next week and a half, but damn ... we can control our own destiny. Let's go out and win some games.
 
No problem with the Iowa from last night. Wieskamp and Garza couldn't buy a basket from 3 point range.

Problem is, when Iowa plays Illinois, neither of those guys seem to miss even on contested 3's from 8 feet behind the line.
IIRC, Wieskamp had a game vs. us last year where he literally did not miss. Went 8/8, 6/6 on threes, and 2/2 on FTs. Of course, as a team, Iowa shot 71% on threes that game. https://fightingillini.com/boxscore.aspx?path=mbball&id=16410
 
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
FWIW — if we win out, here's the breakdown of our possible seeds:

1 Seed - 5%
2 Seed - 80%
3 Seed - 15%
 
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
If we win 3/4 with our loss coming to OSU (the most likely 3-win scenario), we still have a 95% chance of a double-bye.

1 Seed - <0.1%
2 Seed - 37%
3 Seed - 36%
4 Seed - 22%
5 Seed - 5%
 
Probably hurts us because it puts Iowa ahead of us assuming they don't lose again.
So with our assumed 1 loss to only IA, instead of OSU - Definitely would hurt us because OSU isn't in a tiebreaker scenario either way, while if our one more loss is to IA we are then even where they are competing for a top 4 seed (1 more team in the mix) + we start 0-2 in any tiebreaker with IA at that point
...since OSU s 2 games back, if we only lose 1 we still finish ahead of them
...Lose to IA instead & it evens us in the loss column where they can steal a top 4 seed + in any tiebreakers with IA in the mix we would start 0-2.

Potential tie partners & records (with 1 more loss to IA)
MD (0-2) - would have to lose out
MSU (0-2)
WIS (1-0)
PSU(1-0)
IA (0-2) ...where if we beat IA/lose to OSU, IA can't catch us
MI (2-0) (would need to win out)

If we are tied with IA, the 0-2 really puts us starting in a hole in the tiebreaker with the teams we are currently tied with...we probably need MI & MSU to win out to not end up last in any tiebreaker
 
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Likes: danielb927
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
I think Greensboro nailed it, looks like that would be a lot worse for us. I won't be able to run that case until this evening, sorry! Another reason I hope to make this into some kind of interactive online tool next year...
 
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Ordained Dudeist Priest
Johns Creek, GA
I really want to see IU move down to the first round, and it's up to Purdue to make it happen.
 
BTN says we are 4th behind a 3rd place Wisconsin because we lose the tie breaker there. Someone please explain why we are behind the team we beat on their home floor in the only meeting with the same record???
 
North Bethesda, Maryland
Why are we behind Wisky after tonight? Isn’t head-to-head the first tiebreaker?
 
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