B1G Tournament Forecasting Thread

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#1
Admin
2020 B1G Tournament: March 11-15, Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

B1G Tournament Bracket Generator


B1G Tournament Seedings as of February 29th

Tiebreaker Procedures

1) Maryland (13-5)
2) Michigan State (12-6)
3) Illinois (11-6)
4) Wisconsin (11-6)
5) Penn State (11-7)
6) Iowa (11-7)
7) Ohio State (9-8)
8) Michigan (9-8)
9) Rutgers (9-9)
10) Indiana (8-9)
11) Purdue (8-10)
12) Minnesota (7-10)
13) Nebraska (2-15)
14) Northwestern (1-16)
 
Likes: Illini_Jack
#2
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
New thread, new chart!

Overall picture:

1583074258711.png

  • Illinois is still a 1% chance of a 1 seed, but now has an 11.5% chance of a tie for the championship (not shown). We know what's needed for a share:
    • Win out
    • Maryland loses one more
  • 50/50 shot at a double bye.
  • The separation of the top 6 vs. the rest is quite a bit more clear.
  • At the same time, MSU's win pulled Maryland back into the fold a bit, so the overall clarity metric is only up 1 point, to 71%.
  • If Nebraska wins today, the 13 and 14 seeds will be almost clinched. NU will still have a small chance of tying at 3-17, and would have some hope in the TB by virtue of the Wisconsin/PSU wins they'd pick up (vs. Nebraska's wins over Iowa and Purdue).
Tiebreaker effects:

1583075664039.png

  • Maryland's 1 seed odds really getting hurt. They are 1-1 against MSU and Iowa, 0-1 against Wisconsin and Penn State (and 2-0 against us, of course).
  • OSU and Michigan are a combined 6-0 against Rutgers and Purdue, which shows up pretty clearly in the 7/8 seed lines.
  • OSU also beat Michigan on the road, and hosts them today. A win for the Buckeyes should make them favorites to lock up the 7 seed.
Random Outcomes:

1583075449646.png

  • This isn't that different than the first chart above. With only 2 or 3 games left, schedule has a much smaller effect.
  • The main impact here is Wisconsin having a significantly worse outcome (3.7 seed versus 3.1 seed) due to the ease of their actual schedule: home games vs. Wisconsin and Minnesota, and a road game @IU.
  • The true clarity metric is at 69%. Remember the overall clarity metric is only 71% — a sign that, at this point, the relative strengths of the teams tell us almost nothing about how the rest of the season will shake out.
The bottom line:
  • Let's kick back, relax, and look forward to seeing all of this change in about six hours when we beat the Hoosiers!
 
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#3
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
Important note — most of the charts I'm posting relate to the not-actually-that-important-but-still-fun-to-think-about notion of B1G tourney seeds. Tying for a B1G regular season title would be awesome, regardless of the seed we get. Just under 2% of last night's simulations had a 5- or 6-way tie for first, meaning there's a chance someone gets a share of the regular season title, but not a double-bye!
 
#4
Minnesota beating Wisconsin would have boosted our chances at getting a double bye even if we went 0-2. I believe the only way that can happen now is if Wisconsin also goes 0-2 and their next game is at home against NW so that isn't happening.

So Minnesota is reallllly close to helping us immensely the past 2 games then falls flat both times. Oh well, we just gotta keep winning.
 
#5
Springfiled, IL.
We can get a double bye if we go 1-1 but we have to beat Iowa and Michigan St has to beat Penn St. or just go 2-0 and get the double bye.
 
#7
Springfiled, IL.
We can as long as Indiana beats Wisconsin
 
#8
I love the fact that we play on Thursday while everyone else fighting for a double bye plays Tuesday or Wednesday. The picture should be much clearer before we play OSU.
 
Likes: mini30fan
#10
Are the networks assigned games in the future. Not sure why we were relegated to the BTN and the UM/tOSU game was on CBS. That CBS game meant nothing.
 
#11
Are the networks assigned games in the future. Not sure why we were relegated to the BTN and the UM/tOSU game was on CBS. That CBS game meant nothing.
Game between 2 top 25 teams will draw in more eyeballs nationwide for a casual fan than our game would have. Especially when I'm pretty sure networks, etc., were decided a few weeks back.
 
#12
So if I'm reading the standings correctly, we can clinch the double bye as early as Thursday if Michigan State wins at Penn State and Purdue wins at Iowa Tuesday night and we win at Ohio State on Thursday night.
 
#16
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
Updated chart for today. Overall clarity is up to 76%.

1583154928061.png


Percent of 1M simulations in which each team won (or shared) the B1G title:
Illinois: 14.6%
Iowa: 2.2%
Maryland: 88.1%
Michigan St.: 25.8%
Penn St.: 3.9%
Wisconsin: 33.0%

Effect of tiebreakers:
1583155509718.png
 
#17
Charleston
Another good thing is we play the last game on Sunday against Iowa so we will know what we need in that game
I’d rather NOT know, just go out and win out. Is there ANY scenario where we do NOT get a double bye if we win out?
 
#18
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
I’d rather NOT know, just go out and win out. Is there ANY scenario where we do NOT get a double bye if we win out?
No. If we win out, only Maryland could be ahead of us, and only MSU/Wisconsin could tie us, so our worst finish in that case is 4th.
 
Likes: Zorak
#20
Charleston
No. If we win out, only Maryland could be ahead of us, and only MSU/Wisconsin could tie us, so our worst finish in that case is 4th.
Well, then, you guys root for whoever you want. I’m rooting for the Illini to win out. BAM. All done. Double bye accomplished. Never said it would be easy. But, we can play with anyone. Just remember,
"Sometime when the crew is up against it, the breaks are beating the boys, tell them to get out there and give it all they got and win just one for the Zipper. I don't know where I'll be then, Doc," he said, "but I won't smell too good, that's for sure."
 
#21
Would have been really nice if Minnesota could have not, ya know, completely choked twice in the past week. I'm sure they feel the same. :) I just ran another prediction for the last games of the season, and these are the scenarios I got (holding my other predictions constant, including an RU upset of Maryland and PSU beating MSU in State College):

Go 2-0: 14-6 gives us the 2-seed, and we would play the winner of (7) Indiana and (10) Ohio State. If we won, we'd presumably play the winner of (6) Iowa and (3) Penn State.

Go 1-1: 13-7 bumps us down to the 5-seed, and we would play the winner of (12) Minnesota and (13) Northwestern. If we won, we'd play (4) Michigan State. This would suck. We'd have to hope MSU gets another loss so we could switch with them. Ties with MSU enact crappy tie breakers that SOMEHOW seem to bump us way out, even though we swept Wisconsin and PSU.

Go 0-2: 12-8 gives us the 6-seed, and we would play the winner of (11) Purdue and (14) Nebraska. If we won, we'd play (3) Wisconsin. I actually would like this setup better than that middle scenario.

Obviously, you guys might have different predictions for the non-Illini games, and that would affect these scenarios. However, after playing with it, the dropoff from finishing 2-0 to 1-1 seems MUCH bigger than from finishing 1-1 to 0-2. This is, of course, ONLY talking about the BTT. I imagine the NCAAT seeding implications are very significant if we could finish with at least one more (very quality) win in the regular season. Winning both this week REALLY sets this squad up for a nice seed and a possible Tournament run in March, so let's do it!

EDIT: It's probably unlikely Maryland loses TWICE down the stretch, but it's not that much more unlikely than us winning twice ... they play at Rutgers and vs. Michigan, and they have been playing a bit worse lately. Holding everything else constant, us going 2-0 and them going 0-2 could give us the outright title. :oops:
 
#22
Winning a share of the conference championship, but getting the 5 seed, losing to the 12, and being out of the tournament before Friday would really be very 2010s Illinois of us.
 
#23
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
FWIW, it looks like we'll be guaranteed a double-bye with just two things:

1) A home win over Iowa, AND either
2A) Penn St. loses one more game, OR
2B) Michigan St. loses to Ohio St.
 
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#24
We share the BIG title with the Terps if::
We win remaining 2 games
PSU wins at home vs MSU
IU wins at home vs Wisconsin
Rutgers wins at home vs Maryland
 
#25
Quad Cities
To be honest. I'm rooting for Sparty to beat PSU. Then beat Iowa guarantees double bye.
Not to mention all tiebreakers not good for us. The double Losses against Maryland and Sparty kill us.
 
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