B1G Tournament Forecasting Thread

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#26
MSU/PSU game is bascially a pick em game and Rutgers is a 1.5 favoritie over the Terps.
 
#27
MSU/PSU game is bascially a pick em game and Rutgers is a 1.5 favoritie over the Terps.
That surprises me that Rutgers is favored....would think that line will change before tipoff....not saying Rutgers isn't capable, but would think the odds of that happening are pretty unlikely
 
#28
That surprises me that Rutgers is favored....would think that line will change before tipoff....not saying Rutgers isn't capable, but would think the odds of that happening are pretty unlikely
Torvik actually has Rutgers as a 2.5 favorite.
 
#29
I've always been interested in how getting a game under your belt can help you in the BTT. I think 6 seeds had an uncanny record against 3s in the past 12 team tournaments.

Since going to 14 teams and the double bye, here's how the top four teams did in their first game. You can also see who played in the championship game.

Year First Game Champion
2015 4-0 1 over 3
2016 3-1 2 over 4
2017 2-2 8 over 2
2018 2-2 5 over 3
2019 3-1 1 over 3
 
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#31
New York
I've always been interested in how getting a game under your belt can help you in the BTT. I think 6 seeds had an uncanny record against 3s in the past 12 team tournaments.

Since going to 14 teams and the double bye, here's how the top four teams did in their first game. You can also see who played in the championship game.

Year First Game Champion
2015 4-0 1 over 3
2016 3-1 2 over 4
2017 2-2 8 over 2
2018 2-2 5 over 3
2019 3-1 1 over 3
So teams with the double bye have been 14-6 on Friday, have made up 8 of 10 teams in the championship game, and have won the title 3 of the last 5 years. I think we want the double bye.
 
#32
South Carolina
That surprises me that Rutgers is favored....would think that line will change before tipoff....not saying Rutgers isn't capable, but would think the odds of that happening are pretty unlikely
Maryland has a big-time "luck factor" in its favor, in winning 80% of its one-point games in the Big 10. They're incredibly lucky to still be hanging on to the top spot. I'll take Rutgers playing at home.
 
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#33
So teams with the double bye have been 14-6 on Friday, have made up 8 of 10 teams in the championship game, and have won the title 3 of the last 5 years. I think we want the double bye.
No doubt.

But I think that first game is still a trap game.
 
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#34
So teams with the double bye have been 14-6 on Friday, have made up 8 of 10 teams in the championship game, and have won the title 3 of the last 5 years. I think we want the double bye.
I agree, take the double bye. However, it is hard to separate how much of the 14-6 record is just because 1-4 seeds have proved better over the course of the season already...but if you think the warm up game Thursday makes you better on Friday...seeds 5-7 will have that same problem in the Thursday games...so once you get through Friday, good chance that if you make the championship you are a bit fresher on Day 3 than the teams on Day 4+
 
#40
Well with MD going down and MSU wiping we just need to beat Iowa for the double bye correct?
 
#43
Important note — most of the charts I'm posting relate to the not-actually-that-important-but-still-fun-to-think-about notion of B1G tourney seeds. Tying for a B1G regular season title would be awesome, regardless of the seed we get. Just under 2% of last night's simulations had a 5- or 6-way tie for first, meaning there's a chance someone gets a share of the regular season title, but not a double-bye!
Daniel, any chance you could give us your probabilities of who we could be facing in our tournament game?
 
#44
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
Daniel, any chance you could give us your probabilities of who we could be facing in our tournament game?
I will throw that in for tomorrow morning's update, sure! Probably won't be too hard to suss out with only 11 games left after tonight, at any rate.
 
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