B1G Tournament Forecasting Thread

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#51
I could see Maryland choking away the ‘ship against Michigan. They’ll be feeling a lot of pressure after losing 3 of last 4 with only win barely beating Minnesota.
 
#54
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
Morning update!

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Notes
  • With 11 games left, Michigan State is now your odds-on favorite for the #1 seed (but barely).
  • Illinois has, by a decent margin, the widest distribution of any B1G team.
  • Total clarity is up to 81%, which still seems pretty low considering there are only 11 games left.
  • Only 4 of the 14 seeds have a 2-in-3 or stronger favorite.
Tiebreakers are now having a fairly big effect on a lot of potential seed lines:

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Fun Things
  • My favorite long-shot scenario, "all teams tied with at least one other team", is still alive! It's holding at roughly a 1.6% chance. Wisconsin > NW and Minny > IU would be helpful results tonight for this scenario.
  • A 4-team tie for the title is now the limit, but a 5-team tie is still alive (with a ~4% chance), either for 3rd at 12-8 or for 7th at 10-10.
 
#56
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
@jrichisamazing requested some info on matchups. I don't have the mechanism built in to track matchups if we're a double-bye yet, unfortunately.

If we're not a double-bye (i.e., we go 0-2 and we're all very sad), here's the likelihood of our first and second opponents. First opponent should be based on a reasonable prediction of Nebraska's and Northwestern's odds in the Wednesday games, but I won't swear that that's working correctly, so those two teams may be over-represented.

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#58
Illini vs Iowa is the last game of the B10. MSU and Maryland games will be over when they step on the court for tipoff.
 
#60
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
21.2% to share the title.(y)
Whoops, meant to share that stat from my KenPom-based stuff last night. I think we were closer to 19%, but still about the same. T-Ranketology seems to have liked us better for most of 2020.

Based on a quick look at the numbers, the 19% chance can be broken down into:
I. 15% chance we win out
II. 4% chance we go 1-1 and Maryland, MSU, and Wisconsin all lose 1 more game

I vote we pursue option :illinois:
 
#61
Whoops, meant to share that stat from my KenPom-based stuff last night. I think we were closer to 19%, but still about the same. T-Ranketology seems to have liked us better for most of 2020.

Based on a quick look at the numbers, the 19% chance can be broken down into:
I. 15% chance we win out
II. 4% chance we go 1-1 and Maryland, MSU, and Wisconsin all lose 1 more game

I vote we pursue option :illinois:
In the spirit of Super Tuesday, I also vote for the :illinois:
 
Likes: illinifan4249
#62
Great stuff guys. Here's my best case out of the worst case scenario.

-We go 0-2
-Wisconsin goes 0-2 (NW, @IU)
-OSU loses @MSU

That is the only scenario that gets us the double bye without winning a game. So root for Northwestern tonight.
 
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#63
New York
Looking at Saturday/Sunday- we are the last game of the conference season Sunday night. So going into our matchup with Iowa we’ll know exactly what the rest of the conference looks like and what the stakes are.
 
#64
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
Minnesota is officially the first team to lock in their seed line — you can pen them in for the #12 spot!

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With such a bunched-up field, most teams are seeing tiebreakers play a significant role in their projected seed. There are 8 teams that have an odds-on favorite seed line (50% chance or better), and for all of them, at least 30% of those odds are due to tiebreakers.

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#65
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
Quick update this morning. We're to the point where you can just put together a chart of all 128 scenarios (usually I see one of these pop up on Twitter) but this still helps to some degree.

Apparently we have a small chance of knocking Iowa down to the 8 line? That would be fun!

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#67
Chambana
Quick update this morning. We're to the point where you can just put together a chart of all 128 scenarios (usually I see one of these pop up on Twitter) but this still helps to some degree.

Apparently we have a small chance of knocking Iowa down to the 8 line? That would be fun!

View attachment 5826
If we end up beating Iowa tomorrow & securing a 4 seed in the BTT, I feel like we would’ve outperformed our KenPom ranking by quite a bit.

A cool simulation to run would be to run all 20 games in the B1G for each team, based on the current KenPom rankings, & see where we ‘should have’ ended up.
 
Likes: IlliniKat91
#69
As Saturday hoops come to a close, I believe we're now going to be the 4, 5 or 6 seed.
If we win tomorrow and get the 4, we probably have our easiest possible path to the tourney title game. Iowa away from Carver and a Wisconsin team that we already beat. Wisconsin may be on a win streak but look at the teams they played during that streak, beating them is much more plausible than having to face ohio state msu or maryland before the finals
 
#71
The 20 game Big ten schedule means you play 7 teams twice and 6 teams once. That means you play 3 teams only at home and 3 only on the road. It is interesting to note that Illinois had to play the 9 toughest teams possible for them on the road (wisconsin, MSU, md, ia, PSU, Osu, Rutgers, Michigan, Purdue) as well as NW. our home only teams were the 11, 12, and 13th teams (ind, minn,Nebraska). We did very well to go 5-5 on the road against those teams. Sometimes this unbalanced schedule helps, sometimes it hurts.
 
#74
We need to win, that much is obvious.

If OSU wins, we'd play OSU then UW

If OSU loses, then it's IA then UW

If we lose, things start to get dicey, and we'd most likely end up playing MD or MSU, as well as some combination of OSU or IA

Let's just win.
 
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