Enough with all this optimism!!!
I have decided the best way for me to ensure an Illini victory on Saturday is to write an extended post that will immediately become irrelevant upon gaining their 6th win...
Thus APR bowl eligibility!
It's been a few years since this was relevant to Illini fans, so here's a little review. If there are more bowl slots available than there are 6+ win teams, the bowls start taking 5-win teams. These teams are taken in order of their Academic Progress Ranking (APR), which is based on graduation rate, player retention and things like that. Illinois is in pretty good position, tied with 5 other teams for 22nd in the rankings.
There were 3 APR teams selected to bowls in 2015 and 2016, but there hasn't been a single one in both 2017 and 2018. So there's no guarantee for even the top ranked 5-win APR team that they'll get to a bowl.
There are 38 bowls. That means 76 teams go to bowls out of 130 FBS teams.
As of right now, 45 teams have become bowl eligible with 6 or more wins, leaving 31 bowl slots to be filled.
Of the remaining teams, 5 have 8 or more losses, leaving 80 teams to fight out for bowl slots.
Taking out the teams that have either been eliminated up (have 6 or more wins) or been eliminated down (have 8 or more losses), Illinois is currently tied for 10th place in the APR standings.
1. Northwestern
2. Duke
3(t) Vanderbilt, Washington
5(t) Boston College, Nevada
7. Stanford
8. Louisville
9. Temple
10(t) Illinois, Middle Tenn St., Arkansas
So, absent a 6th Illinois win, we want teams that haven't become bowl eligible to keep losing, especially those teams on the above list.
I'm not sure the tie breakers or the order in which bowls that don't have slots filled get assigned APR teams. I'll research that if it becomes relevant.
I'll try to update the numbers as games are played so long as Illinois is sitting on 5 wins. Temple could lock down a bowl bid with a win at South Florida tonight. Tomorrow night, Tulsa could be eliminated from bowl contention against UCF and Washington could clinch a bowl bid with a win at Oregon St.