Bracket Matrix & NCAAs

[Calvin]

Ok, we finally have a decent win to talk about, and while we're a country mile from tourney contention at the moment, there's a lot of bball left to play.

Good wins:
Missouri - currently projected as an 8 seed.
Bad losses:
None using RPI outside 200 for teams not projected in the bracket matrix
Maryland (11 seed)
New Mexico State (13 seed)
UNLV (outside the tourney by 12, but getting votes)
NW (13 teams farther behind UNLV)
Wake (161 and our worst loss)

Realtime RPI has us at 142. Sagarin ELO has us 75, which seems generous. KenPom has us at 87. This is a pretty crappy resume, obviously, and I didn't expect to see Illinois even make the list of deep bubble teams in the bracket matrix. However, our 5 losses aren't bad, and could be overcome during conference play. We need some decent wins.

Unfortunately, the conference isn't very strong, with 5 projected tourney teams (approximate seed), again, according to bracketmatrix:

MSU (1)
Purdue (3)
Michigan (9)
Minnesota (10)
Maryland (11)

After trying to do an objective look at it, I'd say our chances are somewhere between bad and terrible, but certainly not a moonshot. The Missouri game should give us hope to win more 50-50 games, and those are ones we'll have to start winning.

 

[alaskaillini]

Looking at the T-page for the B1G, we have a 1% chance of making the tourney.

http://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=B10

 

[Calvin]

Looking at the T-page for the B1G, we have a 1% chance of making the tourney.

http://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=B10

Hmm, maybe it is a moonshot.

 

[JFGsCoffeeMug]

Losing both the NU and MD games really hurt us. If we had won both of those, we'd be in a great spot right now.

 

[alaskaillini]

I imagine OkState had a very slim chance of making the tourney last year after 6 conf. losses, but they did. That number can always change (and I am drinking the Koolaid because I think we get one of @Minn or @Mich to start the new year).

BTW Ind has a 0%, Iowa and Neb a 0.1%, and Rutg and Wisc a 0.3% chance, so we are slightly better off than 5 other B1G programs according to that website.

 

[Illini_1979]

Looking at the T-page for the B1G, we have a 1% chance of making the tourney.

http://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=B10

 

[Glory Days]

With young teams you always see wild volatility, and with this Illini team we are seeing such.

The objective is to reduce the negative volatility, and I expect as the season progresses, that will be the case.

However, this team can only chase the basketball so hard in an attempt to mask historically bad interior defense.

I'm sticking with my initial prediction of a 16-15 or 15-16 overall record. If Underwood gets this group to 18 wins, he's a freaking wizard.

 

[7yearillini]

Ok, we finally have a decent win to talk about, and while we're a country mile from tourney contention at the moment, there's a lot of bball left to play.

Good wins:
Missouri - currently projected as an 8 seed.
Bad losses:
None using RPI outside 200 for teams not projected in the bracket matrix
Maryland (11 seed)
New Mexico State (13 seed)
UNLV (outside the tourney by 12, but getting votes)
NW (13 teams farther behind UNLV)
Wake (161 and our worst loss)

Realtime RPI has us at 142. Sagarin ELO has us 75, which seems generous. KenPom has us at 87. This is a pretty crappy resume, obviously, and I didn't expect to see Illinois even make the list of deep bubble teams in the bracket matrix. However, our 5 losses aren't bad, and could be overcome during conference play. We need some decent wins.

Unfortunately, the conference isn't very strong, with 5 projected tourney teams (approximate seed), again, according to bracketmatrix:

MSU (1)
Purdue (3)
Michigan (9)
Minnesota (10)
Maryland (11)

After trying to do an objective look at it, I'd say our chances are somewhere between bad and terrible, but certainly not a moonshot. The Missouri game should give us hope to win more 50-50 games, and those are ones we'll have to start winning.

I strongly disagree. You point out that the league is weak this year. While this makes a big time signature win more difficult to come by, it means that virtually every game is winnable. Not saying we will win all or most, but we have been in every game and are getting better. I would not count us out by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[dbeverly26]

It's too early to count anyone in the Big Ten out, but this team has an extreme uphill path if they're going to make it. Because of the weak SoS and three noncon losses, I can't see Illinois getting in absent a massive BTT push if they don't beat GCU and then go 11-7 in conference play. That gets you to 21-12, which is probably good enough for a P5 team to get in.

The problem is that they've already punted two games with the tough losses to Maryland and in Rosemont. So you need to go 11-5 the rest of the way out, which is a pretty tall task given the schedule. What we have left is the following:

Vs. top tier teams (MSU and PU): 2 home and 1 road
Vs. bubble teams (MN, UM, OSU and PSU): 1 home and 3 road
Vs. the rest of the teams (IA/NE/UW/IU/RU): 5 home and 4 road

I have trouble seeing 11 wins there. Even if you get 4 out of 7 from the top two groups -- which would probably include either sweeping two top-ten caliber teams at home or stealing two wins against tourney teams on the road -- you still have to win 7 of 9 against the bottom feeders, which includes a couple on the road. More likely, you get three off of the top two groups, which leaves you with basically no margin of error against the last group.

It's doable, but if you don't pick up something like five of the next seven, it might not be.

 

[Peoria Illini]

It's too early to count anyone in the Big Ten out, but this team has an extreme uphill path if they're going to make it. Because of the weak SoS and three noncon losses, I can't see Illinois getting in absent a massive BTT push if they don't beat GCU and then go 11-7 in conference play. That gets you to 21-12, which is probably good enough for a P5 team to get in.

The problem is that they've already punted two games with the tough losses to Maryland and in Rosemont. So you need to go 11-5 the rest of the way out, which is a pretty tall task given the schedule. What we have left is the following:

Vs. top tier teams (MSU and PU): 2 home and 1 road
Vs. bubble teams (MN, UM, OSU and PSU): 1 home and 3 road
Vs. the rest of the teams (IA/NE/UW/IU/RU): 5 home and 4 road

I have trouble seeing 11 wins there. Even if you get 4 out of 7 from the top two groups -- which would probably include either sweeping two top-ten caliber teams at home or stealing two wins against tourney teams on the road -- you still have to win 7 of 9 against the bottom feeders, which includes a couple on the road. More likely, you get three off of the top two groups, which leaves you with basically no margin of error against the last group.

It's doable, but if you don't pick up something like five of the next seven, it might not be.

Another hurdle is that 4 of the next 5 conference games are on the road. Could easily start the conference off 1-6. I think we do better than that, but I would guess 3-4 in the conf after that stretch.

 

[Calvin]

Another hurdle is that 4 of the next 5 conference games are on the road. Could easily start the conference off 1-6. I think we do better than that, but I would guess 3-4 in the conf after that stretch.

Might as well throw on the MSU game as well, even though it's at home.

@Minney
@scUM
Iowa
@Neb
@Wiscy
MSU

 

[dbeverly26]

Might as well throw on the MSU game as well, even though it's at home.

@Minney
@scUM
Iowa
@Neb
@Wiscy
MSU

Gnarly. But I guess winning through stretches like that is one of the things that good teams do.

 

[dweebs19]

Might as well throw on the MSU game as well, even though it's at home.

@Minney
@scUM
Iowa
@Neb
@Wiscy
MSU

I think Minny and MSU are the only losses

 

[Obelix]

Ok, we finally have a decent win to talk about, and while we're a country mile from tourney contention at the moment, there's a lot of bball left to play.

Good wins:
Missouri - currently projected as an 8 seed.
Bad losses:
None using RPI outside 200 for teams not projected in the bracket matrix
Maryland (11 seed)
New Mexico State (13 seed)
UNLV (outside the tourney by 12, but getting votes)
NW (13 teams farther behind UNLV)
Wake (161 and our worst loss)

Realtime RPI has us at 142. Sagarin ELO has us 75, which seems generous. KenPom has us at 87. This is a pretty crappy resume, obviously, and I didn't expect to see Illinois even make the list of deep bubble teams in the bracket matrix. However, our 5 losses aren't bad, and could be overcome during conference play. We need some decent wins.

Unfortunately, the conference isn't very strong, with 5 projected tourney teams (approximate seed), again, according to bracketmatrix:

MSU (1)
Purdue (3)
Michigan (9)
Minnesota (10)
Maryland (11)

After trying to do an objective look at it, I'd say our chances are somewhere between bad and terrible, but certainly not a moonshot. The Missouri game should give us hope to win more 50-50 games, and those are ones we'll have to start winning.

Good analysis. Some of the arguments against your post remind me of the arguments against analysts "projecting" us low in pre-season. Hard for anyone to make an argument IMO that our chances right now are anything but extremely low or that we "sneak in." Yes, if we surprise everyone during conference play and we take the conference by storm, sure it could happen. Mathematically we have not been eliminated. But chances are definitely squarely against us right now.

 

[illinibballfan]

I think Minny and MSU are the only losses

At Michigan and at Wisconsin are at best toss ups for us and would likely consider us underdogs. I like how our team has been playing recently, but no matter how down their teams are or how good it teams are, those venues have rarely been friendly to our records.

 

[lonelytylenol]

Because of the weak SoS and three noncon losses, I can't see Illinois getting in absent a massive BTT push if they don't beat GCU and then go 11-7 in conference play. That gets you to 21-12, which is probably good enough for a P5 team to get in.

Isn't your math off here? 2 of our 5 losses are conference. Getting to 11-7 means we only take 5 more losses, which means 10 total.

 

[Calvin]

At Michigan and at Wisconsin are at best toss ups for us and would likely consider us underdogs. I like how our team has been playing recently, but no matter how down their teams are or how good it teams are, those venues have rarely been friendly to our records.

Michigan is rated 27th by Sagarin's predictor, about 9 points above us with home court advantage. That would be a pretty big upset. Wiscy should be winnable, though.

While I'd like to be optimistic that we turn the corner any moment, I don't think we have the interior defense to match up with most teams in the big.

 

[dbeverly26]

Isn't your math off here? 2 of our 5 losses are conference. Getting to 11-7 means we only take 5 more losses, which means 10 total.

I was told there would be no math.

You're correct, I double-counted the two losses we already have. I still think that 21 is the magic number for wins, though (based on nothing but my gut feeling).

 

[illini62707]

All this is why loss to Maryland was so big. I

 

[illini62707]

Instead of 10-4 with wins against 2 teams projected for field at this early juncture including a conference foe who you will be battling for a spot. Illinois is 9-5 with a steep hill to climb.

 

[MakesNoSense]

I strongly disagree. You point out that the league is weak this year. While this makes a big time signature win more difficult to come by, it means that virtually every game is winnable. Not saying we will win all or most, but we have been in every game and are getting better. I would not count us out by any stretch of the imagination.

I would, but I never for one second thought we would this year. Distant future is bright though.

 

[JFGsCoffeeMug]

This team is capable of making a run in conference play and getting an upset or two. I don't know if it would be enough, but it would be fun to watch.

 

[DB11Headband]

At Michigan and at Wisconsin are at best toss ups for us and would likely consider us underdogs. I like how our team has been playing recently, but no matter how down their teams are or how good it teams are, those venues have rarely been friendly to our records.

Wisconsin is very beatable this year. I think we beat them but lose to Michigan.

 

[jmilt7]

Didn't know where else to post this (or even if it is appropriate here) but I thought this article was interesting. It is related to a down on their luck team that is still expected to make the NCAA tourney.

This 0-13 Basketball Team Is A Favorite To Make The NCAA Tournament

<https://deadspin.com/this-0-13-basketball-team-is-a-favorite-to-make-the-nca-1821600072>

 

[dbeverly26]

This team is capable of making a run in conference play and getting an upset or two. I don't know if it would be enough, but it would be fun to watch.

I think that they'll be fun to watch regardless and have generally high hopes for the rest of the season. Just hoping that the 50/50 games even out (or more than even out) and that's enough to get us in.