Bracketology
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TownieMatt
CU Expat
- Chicago
Bingo. I just keep reminding myself not to get my hopes up. After another rough season, it feels good just to be trending in the right direction.
Captain Bubbles
- Fairfield, IL
Even if Illinois were to beat MSU, Rutgers, and win the first round Big Ten Tourney game...I still feel like it wouldn't be enough to get into the NCAA Tourney. They need to do more damage in the Big Ten Tourney to get in.
Only way we are out if that happens is if an abnormally large number of teams steal at-large bids by winning conference tourneys.
I've stayed away from this thread, as I thought it was absurd for a team that hadn't won 2 games in a row in conference in two years to be talking about "what if we win 7 in a row".
I have to say, after todays game, I am now paying attention. The bubble is remarkably weak. I was sure, at the beginning of conference play, we would need to be 10 - 8 in the B1G to be in the tournament. Amazingly, I think 9 - 9 with one BTT win more than likely has us in.
The odds are still stacked against winning 3 more in a row, but what the heck. One wrung at a time.
I have to say, after todays game, I am now paying attention. The bubble is remarkably weak. I was sure, at the beginning of conference play, we would need to be 10 - 8 in the B1G to be in the tournament. Amazingly, I think 9 - 9 with one BTT win more than likely has us in.
The odds are still stacked against winning 3 more in a row, but what the heck. One wrung at a time.
I'm not sure I agree. It depends how the other multitude of Bubble teams do.
BYU win looking better after they beat Gonzaga. We don't have any losses outside the top 100. Road record looking better.
"IF" that scenario plays out, we'll have a reason to turn in the NCAA selection show.
If we win out regular season and the Kitties lose out, could it come down to our performance versus theirs in the BTT?
Deleted member 236589
D
Guest
I personally think Northwestern is going to lose their last two. If we win our last two and we both end up 9-9.....There will be some explaining to do if they get in over us. Right now, they're considered a lock. We're closing in. Wednesday is a biggie.
Being right on the bubble means mid-major conference tournaments are kind of important. Does anyone want to make a list of conferences that only have a couple at-large bids so we know who to cheer for these next 2 weeks.
Also not as important, but NW needs to stay in the top 50 and Iowa needs to stay in the top 100. I say it's not as important because if we are one of the last spots the committee will look closer and it won't really matter if Iowa is 102 or 99...or if NW if 49 or 52.
Also not as important, but NW needs to stay in the top 50 and Iowa needs to stay in the top 100. I say it's not as important because if we are one of the last spots the committee will look closer and it won't really matter if Iowa is 102 or 99...or if NW if 49 or 52.
I just have a hard time seeing them putting in 8 teams from Big Ten, which is supposedly down this year. I realize they aren't supposed to care about the # of teams from each OMG, but they keep track of that stuff. We need to hope we win out and at least one in the BTT and Northwestern loses out and their first game in BTT. That gives us a better resume over them I believe.
*conference (not OMG) lol
Cheez
- Sun Prairie WI
here's something to keep in mind:
One of the linchpins of Illinois' case for the tournament is that they have four top-50 wins. Well, if NW keeps losing, that number drops because they are presently #50.
EDIT: jrichisamazing beat me to this comment.
On a side note, it feels good that the conversation is here rather than the coaching carousel
One of the linchpins of Illinois' case for the tournament is that they have four top-50 wins. Well, if NW keeps losing, that number drops because they are presently #50.
EDIT: jrichisamazing beat me to this comment.
On a side note, it feels good that the conversation is here rather than the coaching carousel
Multiple teams ahead of us competing for the 11 seed lost this weekend. I suspect we make some strides when this week's brackets are submitted. We may even be projected as "in".
Current 11 seed at-larges:
Marquette (Loss)
Syracuse (Loss)
Providence (Won)
KSU (Loss)
First Four Out:
Vanderbilt (Won)
TCU (Loss)
Wake Forest (DNP)
Rhode Island (Won)
Next Four Out:
Georgia Tech (Loss)
http://bracketmatrix.com/
Current 11 seed at-larges:
Marquette (Loss)
Syracuse (Loss)
Providence (Won)
KSU (Loss)
First Four Out:
Vanderbilt (Won)
TCU (Loss)
Wake Forest (DNP)
Rhode Island (Won)
Next Four Out:
Georgia Tech (Loss)
http://bracketmatrix.com/
here's something to keep in mind:
One of the linchpins of Illinois' case for the tournament is that they have four top-50 wins. Well, if NW keeps losing, that number drops because they are presently #50.
EDIT: jrichisamazing beat me to this comment.
On a side note, it feels good that the conversation is here rather than the coaching carousel
But if we beat msu, that will add another and will make a case for us getting in instead of northwestern. They're mirroring us right now, just on the other side of the bubble. Also, it's not just quality wins but SOS.
Ransom Stoddard
Ordained Dudeist Priest
- Bloomington, IL
Totally disagree. We would have 20 wins and would have finished 7th in the Big Ten ahead of Northwestern....which WILL NOT win another game this year. (Losses to UM and PU and their first round BTT opponent.....and then excluded from the tourney.)
Thus, Illinois will be the 7th Big Ten team selected for the Dance....assuming we win out.
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Honestly, we'd beat Kansas State by 20 right now with the way KSU is playing. I think people are a bit more optimistic than I am right now with the state of the bubble though. Usually the bubble ends up around the "Last 4 byes" this time of year due to bid thieves. If we aren't there in the projections this week, I'm pretty sure we're going to be on the outside looking in unfortunately.
Every time one of these teams loses, the bubble shrinks:
Gonzaga / St. Mary's
Middle Tennessee State (RPI 33)
UT Arlington (RPI 35)
Illinois State / Wichita State (they may both make it, but probably one)
UNC Wilmington (RPI 39)
Nevada (RPI 42)
Monmouth/Vermont probably won't make it in as at-large teams, although they are good
Every time one of these teams loses, another spot is taken away. It's not common for a larger conference to have a surprise conference tournament winner, but it can happen as well. If 3-4 of the above teams lose, the last 4 in become the first four out, which is why I think teams that aren't on the "Last Four Byes" are screwed this year. Here's hoping I guess.
Every time one of these teams loses, the bubble shrinks:
Gonzaga / St. Mary's
Middle Tennessee State (RPI 33)
UT Arlington (RPI 35)
Illinois State / Wichita State (they may both make it, but probably one)
UNC Wilmington (RPI 39)
Nevada (RPI 42)
Monmouth/Vermont probably won't make it in as at-large teams, although they are good
Every time one of these teams loses, another spot is taken away. It's not common for a larger conference to have a surprise conference tournament winner, but it can happen as well. If 3-4 of the above teams lose, the last 4 in become the first four out, which is why I think teams that aren't on the "Last Four Byes" are screwed this year. Here's hoping I guess.
And as far as Iowa, they are at 8-8 and finish with Wiscy and PSU....which means they will have at least 9 losses.
So....win our last 2 and we lock up 7th in a very competitive / deep Big Ten.
Then probably beat OSU in the first game of the tourney.
It's that simple.
So....win our last 2 and we lock up 7th in a very competitive / deep Big Ten.
Then probably beat OSU in the first game of the tourney.
It's that simple.
I'm not sure I follow here. Gonzaga and St Mary's are locks.
MTSU, UTA, UNCW and Nevada are in one bid leagues. If they don't win their conference tournaments, they are headed to the NIT. Will not get at large bids.
The bid stealing teams would be someone like Iowa winning the Big Ten.
There really aren't many mid/low majors that will be a threat, I think you may have named them all - Zags, St Marys, WSU and ISU.
Bracket matrix had us in 5 brackets at the beginning of the day. It'll be interesting to see the difference after the next update.
If BYU wins the WCC, they'd steal a bid. The others would be considered on the bubble if they lost in their conference finals. It's the same thing as every year on whether a 25-27 win team deserves a spot over a 20 win team in a major conference. ESPN has a good breakdown of bubble teams on their bubble watch. All of the above are on there under "work left to do". For comparison sake, Illinois didn't even make the list last week.
Right, if St Marys or Gonzaga doesn't win the WCC, there's a spot gone. Same for Wichita St (maybe ISU). That's about it. The rest don't have the resume to get an at large bid.
ESPN is still pushing their silly BPI rankings that thinks Indiana is a top 30 team, so I don't pay a ton of attention to them.
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