Bracketology

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If BYU wins the WCC, they'd steal a bid. The others would be considered on the bubble if they lost in their conference finals. It's the same thing as every year on whether a 25-27 win team deserves a spot over a 20 win team in a major conference. ESPN has a good breakdown of bubble teams on their bubble watch. All of the above are on there under "work left to do". For comparison sake, Illinois didn't even make the list last week.
This is said every year, but I'll say it again. Don't pay attention to ESPN.
 
Get to 20.

I think any way we get 20 wins gets us in the Dance. If it means splitting the kast two ganes and winning two in the btt, that's fine..
 
Uh, what? You do realize this is a historically bad, down year for the conference, correct? :confused:
It's a down year but this is a little overly dramatic. It's fairly similar to the past 2 seasons, better depth but lacking the top level teams that can do damage in March. Using Pomeroy's ratings it's actually better than the past 2 seasons.

I thought you could have one game against a D-2 school and count it?
No, you might be thinking of an old rule for football.
 
We're in 13 of 98 brackets on the bracketmatrix. This is getting interesting. 2 more wins might do it. 3 would be better.
 
We're in 13 of 98 brackets on the bracketmatrix. This is getting interesting. 2 more wins might do it. 3 would be better.
You have to remember that conference upsets will shrink the bubble a bit. Also other teams could make runs in their conference tournaments. They might be able to get away with 3 but they will probably need 4.
 
Washington, DC
You have to remember that conference upsets will shrink the bubble a bit. Also other teams could make runs in their conference tournaments. They might be able to get away with 3 but they will probably need 4.
An upset in a one bid conference merely changes the team that represents that conference. It does not turn that conference into a two bid conference. Teams making runs in major conferences are a bigger concern.
 
You have to remember that conference upsets will shrink the bubble a bit. Also other teams could make runs in their conference tournaments. They might be able to get away with 3 but they will probably need 4.
I think 4 gives us a birth. I think 3 will likely qualify. But it really depends on a bubble team and how much noise they make in their respective conference tournament.
 
An upset in a one bid conference merely changes the team that represents that conference. It does not turn that conference into a two bid conference. Teams making runs in major conferences are a bigger concern.
Unless a team like BYU qualifies. That would add a bid. Although that added bid would aid our resume.
 
An upset in a one bid conference merely changes the team that represents that conference. It does not turn that conference into a two bid conference. Teams making runs in major conferences are a bigger concern.
Agreed. And I think the P5 conferences actually get more teams in this year because there aren't too many mid major teams that have resumes to get ALBs.

Unless a team like BYU qualifies. That would add a bid. Although that added bid would aid our resume.
Unless they move into the top 50, it wouldn't have any impact on our resume.
 
Unless they move into the top 50, it wouldn't have any impact on our resume.
Top 50 is a dirty way to count wins against tournament teams. If Winthrop and BYU qualify, it adds to the narrative that we played and won a tough schedule and beat 2 more tournament teams.
 
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We're in 13 of 98 brackets on the bracketmatrix. This is getting interesting. 2 more wins might do it. 3 would be better.
I'm not seeing this. I see us in 5 brackets, but I also see that the Bracket Matrix is only updated through yesterday. Did they update earlier this morning and then reverse the updates or something?
 
Updated Dance Card has us 5 spots ABOVE the bubble line after taking into account yesterday's games. And 3 spots below NW . . .

"In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday." Ill is listed at 75% now

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
 
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